Welcome to NFL Daily, where we love 24-year-old rookie quarterbacks. I'm Greg Rosenthal, and beyond excited today to be joined by my two friends, Mina Kimes, and for the first time on NFL Daily, Kevin Clark. Welcome to the show, guys.

What's going on?

Why are you laughing right off the bat? I think I might need to change the intro music if both you and Coleen are just laughing that it sounds like a war march.

I thought I heard another song. That's why I was like, Oh, okay.

Yeah, me too. I thought somebody was playing weird music from an unspecified... It felt like oldies, but it didn't feel like it was a specific decade.

We're off to a flying start here. Thank you, Kevin, for joining us from your mother-in-law's house. And thank you, Mina. I've been excited about this show for weeks here. We've done this exercise over and under for a couple of years. I'll get into it more in a minute. But I just wanted to have two of the brightest minds over at ESPN to bounce off ideas from.

I want to be clear. I was also smiling because of the visual of Kevin Clark, who has a new haircut, is wearing what appears to be a blazer in his mother-in-law's house, looking a lot like You know during COVID when public science professors would go on CNN for the first time ever?

I do. I do know what that looks like.

Pedemiologist.

I think I said that wrong. Okay, a couple of things about it. Number one is I'm here because we're doing construction to our house, and it's a little more involved than we thought, and so I had to evacuate quickly. But the most important thing is, I was trying to think of the most mother-in-law thing that could be within reach. This is her desk. It's It's a printout, of course, of the Electoral College. I don't know why that's here. They're not super politically involved by any means. It's just a map of Electoral College. You just got I don't know what the path is, I guess.

It's time. It's time to start studying those numbers and figuring out. It's that week. And yes, I do appreciate the Blazer, you classing this up and the new haircut. I'm excited to get to the over-unders. We'll get to that in a second. I did want to just hit off the top. We had some news pop out on Wednesday afternoon that Bo Nix is the official starting quarterback of the Broncos. We don't need to go too crazy because we've been assuming this here on NFL Daily. Mina, On a scale, let's say, of preseason performances that are either misleading or not, starting with, let's say, Kenny Pickets, 2023 is on one end of the continuum, and Russell Wilson's rookie preseason, augering what was a great career. Where do you see Bo Nicks' preseason?

I'm going to say somewhere in the middle. We talked about this on my show a little bit, The Meantime Show featuring Lenny. I was more optimistic than Ben Solek, who was my guest, who, by the way, called Bo Nix a young man. They're the same age. When you said he was 24, that really hit me. Anyways, the reason I I'm more optimistic about it is because I think Bo Nicks in Sean Payton's offense, and I know that sounds like a big-Yes. I'm hedging here, but I don't think it's hedging because we are going to see him in Sean Payton's offense. And I think what's become very clear from the preseason, yes, against backups, and yes, it's very different for the regular season for a litany of reasons in ways that tend to favor efficient quarterbacks who can get the ball quickly, I think Payton is going to get the most out of him. I don't think the ceiling is incredibly high with offense, Kevin, but I actually think the floor is maybe higher than I thought going into the season.

He's the most accurate passer in history of college football, and that means something. And that means something to Sean Payton, and Sean Payton loves him. Jeff Shwartz was on my show, speaking of guests, talking about the Broncos, and he said, The most encouraging thing about Bo Nicks is the offense is tailored towards him. Sean Payton clearly had a plan of what it was supposed to look like. Nicks, to me, when you mentioned 24-year-olds, is one of the first of what What's going to be the new normal in the draft from now on, James Daniels in his bucket as well, of these elder millennial quarterbacks who- They're not millennials. Learn to play football. They They learned to play football over five years or six years in some cases. They use the transfer portal, and they played a ton of football. Bo Nicks threw 1,200 more passes than JJ McCarthy at the college level. He basically played like... I I know the age difference is such, but the football education difference is so significant. I talked to Savita Prichard, who is Jaden Daniels' quarterback's coach. And he was saying, We know we can see so much tape in different offenses, and we can see that they're getting this data in their head and they're clocking it, and they're getting better with every rep.

And you don't see that necessarily with Drake May because he was only there for three years in one school under one head coach. Jj McCarthy, same situation. Bo Nicks has had a professional career already, and here. And so the fact the floor is this high is not a surprise. And I think there's going to be a lot of early success. A couple of these teams are my big boards. I don't want to get too deep into it.

I know. They're over under five and a half for the Broncos. That's interesting. As down as I am on Sean Payton's long term success in Denver, five and a half for a Sean Payton team in year two of his program.

I completely agree. But I'm just saying there's going to be this army of guys. There were six first round quarterbacks last year. Three of them were direct results of the transfer portal, and that's not even counting Caleb Williams. We're going to see way more Bo Nicks is, and those guys are going to have success, especially with Sean Payton.

Yeah, they have a little extra year because the COVID year, that's finally flushed through. But I want to see how high his floor is. I don't know if I'm skeptical, but I want to see. I'm very excited about that week one Seahawks-Broncos game. We We talked about what games are you putting on if you had the four-game multi-view. That's a late afternoon game, but I'm very into that just because everything is weird and new in Seahawks-Broncos week one. All right, we'll see if either of those teams comes up. And yes, Meana Keims from NFL Live, The Meana Keim Show featuring Lenny, one of the best out there, and Kevin Clark from This is Football, and all the ESPN programs lately around the Horn, and they're sneaking you on NFL Live. It's great. I wanted to have you guys on. This is a show near and dear to my heart because I've done really well at it the last two years, and we just need to see if I can keep that going.

Who was your biggest hit the last two years? Who was the one you just nailed?

Well, I'm seven and oh. Through the two years, we did... What? I know. That's what I mean. That's crazy. I was surprised and went back and checked. Mina, you went two and one two years ago, so you acquitted yourself well. We did three, two years ago. Did four last year. It's a little crazy. Under Under Giants, I can't even remember. Under Giants and Bears. I think over Chiefs when they going into 2022, when they won the Super Bowl and won a million games, that was easy. A lot have been safe. Eagles over, I think, in 2022. That was pretty easy. It doesn't matter. I don't need to go over that. But I may have thought way too much about this and really struggled to decide who are my last teams because I like it so much. Why don't we start out? It's going to be draft style. Basically, we can each pick the over-unders of any team, an over or an under. But once someone else takes that, you can't take that. We'll just go. We won't do a snake draft style. We'll start with Kevin because I think he's a newcomer. Oh, my gosh.

He's playing hurt with that sport code on.

With that random Blazer and a math of Electoral College.

Let's start with Kevin, then we'll go to Mina.

I have a question. Can we, conceivably, if someone picks X team over, can we draft X team under?

Yes, you can. That would be fun. That is a nice... I would love a challenge match.

I'm probably not going to do that. I don't think that's going to happen, but I just want to make sure that that little... That would be fun. That jiu-jitsu is on the menu. All right, so I'm looking on my big board here. It's deep. It's a deep board. This is a good draft, but I don't know if it's necessarily top-heavy. What's funny is this is why Vegas makes all the money. Every time I'm like, Oh, I really love this team, I'm going to look and say, Oh, well, Vegas pegged this fairly. This is what we're going to do. So there's one team I'm real high on that I feel like their total is low. It's a team, Mina, you know well. It's Los Angeles Rams, and it's eight and a half. I think, and I've gone over, like Steve and Ruiz, the Aaron Donald thing is going to be so significant, blah, blah, blah. The defense is going to be fine, and the offense is developing into a juggernaut. I really do believe this. I was going through the... The NFL has This is a new product, NFL Plus Pro, I think it's called. And I was going through it this morning.

I got access to it. And I was looking at all the open numbers. Who has the most separation in your play action? Well, it's Cooper Cup. Sean McVade gets everybody open all the time. He's number one in all of those things. And there's a reason for that. Stafford, I'm not worried about his health. I think this is an NFC contender. And I think of that group, of that tier A, they're the only one with the total that low.

Yeah, the schedule, I think, for the NFC West, artificially, not even artificially, but it just depressed all their numbers. You find that going into the year, just which division has tough out of division schedules You're like, Oh, why is that team still low? Why are all these teams still low? I think that's part of it. They weren't on my long list, and maybe they should be because you're right. If Stafford is healthy, I feel pretty good about that number. For some reason, even though he's already back at practice, that team is would collapse, I think, without Stafford, even with Jimmy G, and that worries me enough.

It's true of everybody.

That's fair. But I'm more worried about Stafford.

Anybody we're picking to go over would collapse if they didn't have their starting point.

It's true of everybody, but I think the Rams are more dependent on their offense being elite than some other teams because the defense is so young up front. So young. And that's the best player of all time.

I do think there's a floor with the young guys because I think that the verse in Fisk being the thing that we've talked about, already reported that they knew they couldn't replace Aaron Donald, so they did it. I swear to get like...

I don't just like it. I'm just saying I think the staff is what scares me, too. The injuries is really the only thing that scares me with the ramps.

Yes. And so literally, they went out and they said, We can't replace Aaron on them, but we can replace him in aggregate. And so they drafted two Florida State guys. They thought that the chemistry immediately would help them acclimate very quickly. Then they go out and they draft Cam Kitchens from Miami, who I believe is going to start, right? Wasn't that the... As a fan. That was the rumor over the week.

Yeah.

I don't know if he- He didn't dress in the last preseason game, which some of the beats took as a signal that he was at least going to get a lot of.

He's definitely going to play. And I really like the additions. I mean, you mentioned Cam Kitchens. I love the Cam Curl signing at safety. A lot of cams back there. I don't dislike this pick at all. That's my only concern with the Rams is not just injuries to staff or potentially, you're hearing some injuries on the offensive line. Havenstein, Cups, obviously coming off It's an offense that when everyone's healthy, I think could be the literally best offense in the entire NFL. I am very high on this team, too, but that is the concern.

How was Sean McVay in the booth in your life? What was that experience like for you?

It was brief. It was brief. Too brief. Yeah. Also, his headset wasn't working, so I had to give him my headset. So I actually didn't hear. Oh, no. Yeah. I'm a team player.

All right, Mina, You go with the number 2 overall pick. Here we go.

Okay, this is boring because we talked about it, but I think Bronco's five and a half is probably the best.

First one-off the board.

Well, it's a team that had seven Pythagorean wins last year, and I think upgraded at quarterback, frankly. I think this version of whatever you think about Bo Nicks and his ceiling, and that is a totally fair to debate. I think the floor that he gives you and that this offense is going to give you with him in it is better than what we saw last year. Was a defense that was a train wreck to begin the season, pulled things together, still finished 30th in DBOA because of how bad they were at the beginning of the season. Hard to think they're going to be worse. Hopefully, you get a full healthy season out of Aaron Browning. I just I just think I just don't see Payton winning fewer than six games two years in a row. I just don't see it.

Our producer Eric, threw up the over-unders for the entire division. If you're watching on YouTube. And yeah, it's one of the worst divisions in the league. It's weird to me that they're a game below the Raiders and three below the Chargers. That is a huge gap. The case against it would be, Bo Nicks, not very talented. Skill Position Group, on paper, among the league's worst. I mean, you can make a case for Javante Williams and some of the secondary receiver stepping up, but it's not that talented. Then defense, where's the strength? What are you excited about. They have a number of pass rushers, but no one that gets you really juiced up. The secondary after Sertan, I was trying to think of a potential Marshawn Latamore landing spot just because... It's just on my radar that he left the first practice of training camp with an injury, and no one said anything about it ever since. This was an issue between the team before. Maybe he is actually hurt, and he has a hip injury, which is very concerning for them. Or maybe there's just There's been bad vibes there and more going on. I do wonder if the Broncos could certainly use a Martian Latamor, but there's a million teams that could.

All right, I'm going to go third pick. I'm going to go back to... I shouldn't be doing this. Eric put up my my picks from a year ago to me, and over on the bills was one of them, and they barely snuck that out by streaking at the end. You asked what was my best pick. Going under on the Panthers last year. That was pretty strong. I'm going over on the bills again. Nine and a half. Sometimes I think you shouldn't overthink these. Just look at their win total in the last five years. Ten, 13, 11, 13, and then 11 last year. So that was starting in the Josh Allen first playoff season. Their point differential is always over 125. They've been top six in offensive points four straight years, top four in defense four straight years. They are objectively He, by any measure, one of the best teams consistently in the NFL. So my main thing is why not? I know the schedule is pretty tough in that division, in and out of division. But if we're doing this all just because Stefan Diggs isn't there, you can come up with some ways they've gotten worse over the last year.

But they also have the best offensive line, maybe, of the Sean McDermann era. They might have the best running game. They've developed their cornerbacks pretty well. Christian Benford is a real player. They like, we'll see, but every Every preseason, they say Kyrie Elam looks terrible and is not going to ever win the job, and they're right. Then this preseason, they're saying he looks pretty good, that he looks good. Greg Ruso's popping up. I get the strength. The schedule is why their number is so low. But to me, Sean McDermott is one of the coaches that gives you a schematic advantage, Kevin, in some way, and that's a very consistent defense. I'm not overthinking. I'm going over bills again. This is probably the last time or the first time they've been this low in the McDermott era.

I completely agree with you. And I believe McDermott has exceeded his win total in every single season. I believe that. I saw that stuff the other day, which would track, frankly. I talked to Joe braided, their new OC, or their vaguely new OC. This is his first training camp as OC in Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago. And I said, What are you doing? What's keeping you up at night? And he was like, We want to be able to win every single way. We want to be able to have the James Cook way against Dallas. We want to be able to have Josh... They're not trying to change Josh Allen, but they're just trying to say, We need to be so flexible that we can win any game. And I really do think that's possible. And I also think it's just because of the singular talent of Josh Allen. Josh Allen, we did this exercise on my show last week. They were what? I think there are six quarterbacks who are actually worth the money, who deliver value more than what they take away with the $40 million a year that you're paying them. I think it's about six.

And I don't like You can go through it and you can argue about some of those guys. But I think there's six where the team was like, we would actually pay. We probably shouldn't say this publicly, Mina, but we've talked about our nannies before, and we've said that if our nannies stuck us up- This is good.

This is relatable. People really like hearing this stuff.

And we're like, our childcare professionals were like, we want more money. We would be like, there's nothing I can do. You are so good at your job. I'm I'm going to give you more money. The thought of not having you in the house is such a nightmare that I can't conceive of it.

Here's my- Well, there are other nannies. And what if that nanny is a NFL Daily listener? I'm almost insulted that you just assume I haven't made that breakthrough.

I'm just saying that that's a franchise quarterback. We will pay any amount of money. Josh Allen is one of the five or six guys where if any time they want to renegotiate, they're going to be like, Yeah, that sounds good, brother.

Just thinking about my nanny coming home today after her drive and saying she wants a raise. And also, by the way, are you sure about that? She wants more guaranteed money up front. Okay. She wants to restructure. I'm very high on the bills. I had them in my top 10 offenses and defenses. The Matt Milano injury dimmed my optimism a little bit. I am worried about the linebacker position with this team just because the spine with those linebackers and safeties is so young. However, I think Josh Allen papers over so much. Nine and a half. For somebody that thought it was nine and a half, I would take the over, too. So I'm with you.

Yeah, one under the jets there. And yeah, that's where I'm counting on McDermott's schematic advantage with just like, he can get those linebackers to play at a good enough level. Maybe it might be Dorian Williams from Tulane. And the whole thing about the skill position guys, they have enough plus skill position players to me. Shaqir, Knox, Kincaid, Cooke, all those guys are plus players. Maybe Kean Coleman and Curtis Samuel get to be that way. Ray Davis, a little funky. All right, let's go with your second pick, Kevin.

I swear to God, a fax machine just went off in this room.

That's exciting. You've traveled back in time. Is Is it another?

Is it a printed-out poll? Is it unskewed?

I don't even know. Nothing seems to even be in there. Just wanted to make noise to let us know that it was here. So there was a fact machine in here. We're going to place some other stuff as well. This is tremendous. Okay, so this was actually lower on my big board. And then I'm looking at my big board and I'm like, Man, this is calling out to me, and I'm going to regret not calling this ahead of time. By sharp analytics, strength of schedule, they have a harder than normal schedule. They have one of the grimest, most outwardly hostile quarterback situations in the league. They have a bunch of unhappy people and a vaguely new coach. The Las Vegas Raiders are going to lose a lot more games than the six and a half that is currently given to them by... And the defense is going to be fine, even if it gets to be more aggressive, and obviously, they've got a floor of talent there. Christian Wilkins is very good. Max Crosby is very good. This is going to be a very bad team, guys. This is going to be a very bad team.

Garner-minsh was named starting quarterback, and everybody around the team was like, Yeah, he wasn't very good. What happened? And in 20 appears, the entire camp was like, We're waiting for somebody to grab that job, and just nobody did it. And it was named two weeks before the season. It started by default. When that happens, I have to go under.

You should check that fax because it might be from an old NFL fan telling you, Minchu has the it factor, which is something I've been hearing a lot in recent days. I stayed away from this one because I'm scared of the defense, but I agree with everything you said. You called it It's a hostile quarterback competition. It is hostile to my eyes. I would describe it as depressing. It's depressing because I actually really like everything else going on with this team, Greg, and that's what bugs me out.

I did the thing where I did your AFC West preview, and I finished it, and I was like, Oh, I was that guy that just was way too optimistic about everyone just because it was fun to be. It was August. I went to Raiders camp and I got convinced that their defense is going to be truly special. Then again, they going against Aiden O'Kannell and Garner-Minshwin in practice. You're right. Antonio pierce said after the game, It would have been nice if someone played well in this game. Then the next day, he named Minshwin.

He didn't win because of last night is how he put it.

Right. But they do have, potentially, they have continuity on the offensive line. They have potentially an average, maybe even above average, depending on how you squint at it, offensive line and a pretty decent skill players and a good defense so that maybe six and a half. That feels about right in the AFC West.

Does Devante Adams want to be there?

Right. Things could go off the tracks and they could trade him at some point, but it would be surprising. It doesn't feel like he really wants to be there. All right, you go with your second pick.

Okay, I'm saying the division, similar lines. Greg, you will not be surprised by this one. Oh, no. Chargers are not winning more than eight and a half games.

I knew you were taking chargers under.

I'm sorry. That is not a good football team. It is a great quarterback. Obviously, Jim Harbaugh is a good coach. I'm excited about the Jesse Minter hire. I don't care. I have looked at that depth chart, stared at it, tried to figure out how you get to nine wins. I don't see it. Skill player group is a real problem. I do the preseason. They just play the charger. Usually, it's backup, so you got to hedge. Their starters were on there, guys. I'm telling you, outside Herbert, obviously. It's not a good situation.

They need the defense to be good, to have a chance to be excellent. Mina and I have a friendly disagreement. If the charges finish in the top 20 in DBOA, I win that on defense. I am a little worried that Joey Bosa is missing all of training camp, and he might play week one, and absolutely no one has talked about that. He's got a wrist injury. Derwin James has been lately. There's a lot of projection. I usually overrate the Chargers. This is one of those where the offseason is so long that now when I looked, it was very hard when I'm making this long list because-Oh, my God, you're already backing off of it.

I feel it.

I know. The offseason is so long. You make the case, and then you make the case again. By this point in the thing, I can see both sides. I'm not backing off the defense. I feel good about that they could be a top 20 DVO defense, but I am with you under eight and a half. It feels pretty good. The only thing that makes me feel a little better, other than it's just Jim Harbaugh and Justin Herbert, and Justin Herbert is back on the field, is everyone suddenly thinks it feels like the Chargers are one of the worst teams in the NFL, but that number is crazy high. It's a little weird that they're so far.

Really not everyone that it's eight and a half. That's fair. Nine wins?

I have two things on that. Number one, I think the Chargers are going to be better than you think. They have the second easiest schedule in the NFL, according to the Vegas.

That must be part of it.

That's part of it. Expectation thing. That's part of it. The second part is that Jim Harbaugh took a really mediocre roster to the NFC title game the last time he took over an NFL team. And we look back now and we go, Oh, those guys are studs. If you look at the roster now, he made them studs. Nobody was saying that was a sleeping giant at all in San Francisco. I know. I was there. I watched that team, and they got a lot better year over year. There's going to be a credibility there. Normally, that's fake, but a lot of times, coaches don't even know how to practice. Jim Jim Harbaugh knows how to hit and add toughness and evaluate. There's just going to be a lot there. You mentioned the Joy Bosa thing, how nobody talks about it. That's the thing about this recently. There's so many situations that are just hidden in plain sight, and I don't know what the difference is between Trent Williams' holdout, which no one is talking about, and the Brandon Ayuk thing, where we're just getting every 30 seconds, there's a different meeting that we're hearing about. I just don't know how it got so lopsided that there's just some situations we cannot shut the hell up about.

And other situations like Joey Bosa, they're the way nobody talks about. Fantasy?

I don't know. That's my guess.

And there's one where the principals, being the front office of the San Francisco 49ers, think they can skew the situation by talking to the media. And the other one, they're like, Oh, yeah, we know Trent Williams just wants to skip all of training camp, and we're going to give him a raise, and he'll be there next week. I'm putting the over under on Trent Williams. I don't know when their preseason game is, but 36 hours after their last preseason game is when I bit- That was the old Walter Jones move.

Walter Jones to show up on September 1 and be like, Time to make all pro teams.

He's 36 years old. They don't need to see more out of Trent Williams.

What are you guys doing?

What? What am I doing?

No, what's Trent Williams doing? How's he spending his time?

He would hope he would think, staying in shape. I mean, he is the most fearsome athlete maybe in the entire NFL. But yeah, it's a good question. All right, I'm going to go- I'm looking up to see if he has an Instagram.

I'll report back.

All right, I'm going to go with my second pick, and then we'll take a little bit of a break. This is where I'm already starting to wonder, what do I want to do? I want too many things. I'm going back to the well again. I didn't realize I was doing this. I've actually gone under on bears two straight years. I think it was six and a half. Two years ago, it was seven and a half last year. When I saw nine and a half, if it was-They're nine and a half. They're nine and a half at DraftKings. That's the link I sent you. Just so that we were going off the same one. I do think you get a little extra odds or whatever. I work for the NFL, none of these are real things, but it is the team I think I'm furthest from consensus, one of them. Under nine and a half, I feel great about. There's a lot of reasons. Number one, the second half defensive improvement last year, how reliant it was on turnovers. Yes, on paper, it's a great back seven, but I still count the year and a half that Matt Iberflus coached before that as something that matters.

I think they need to have a great defense, and I'm just not sure they were average last year overall. If I'm looking for teams that are going to underachieve, I want to see who has a bad combined line play, offensive line, defensive line. To me, they're below average on balance, offensive line and defensive line. Our guy Aaron Shatz over at FDN. I always feel a little better if he's on the same page. He projects them for six and a half wins. Then I think that's partly because of the schedule. So improved AFC South out of division, NFC West out of division. They do get soft teams with the last place schedule. They got Carolina, Washington, New England, so that's big. And then the last thing, and this is just an intangible, what have you How have you guys thought about Matt Iberflus on Hard Knocks in his one-on-one meetings with Caleb Williams? We'll start with Kevin on this one, but that is contributing to my decision.

I sent a clip to Mina, and I don't want to...

No, no.

I'm not going to put words in her mouth. No, no, no.

You can quote it.

So there was a clip that went around earlier today. I'll just read the text. There was a quote that went on earlier today of Caleb, arms folded, not taking notes in the one-on-one head coach meeting. Now, these head coach meetings, especially with defensive head coaches, are embedded in football lore. Like, Belichick and Katie famously had them every Monday. And I don't think Charlie Weiss and then Josh McDaniel and then Bill O'Brien were even invited. It was just those two guys. And that's part of why braided was able to understand coverages so well is that he had the best defensive mind in history being like, Here's what you need to look for. So these are valuable. There's a clip where Caleb Williams is in this meeting, and I don't know what they're doing, but he's got his arms crossed. He's not taking notes. A couple of people made reference to this. I, as a body language doctor, agreed with some of the folks who pointed that out. So send this to Mina, and her response is, God, Ibraflus looks incredible, though.

It's true, though. She's not wrong. He's looked great. Am I wrong? That's worth half a win. That's worth half a win.

Kevin, did you spot a lie in my response? That's all I want to know.

I didn't spot a lie. You didn't address the arms folded allegations, though.

I'm just getting a little bit of a Joe Shane vibe where it's like, I want more out of these meetings. And he's like, Hey, what do you think? And they're just, I don't know. There's something there, and he is in the third year of his contract, Mina, where look, if they go nine and eight, I win this one. And so that's the thing. I think eight and nine with a tougher schedule or nine and eight is a totally normal good outcome for this team, and that's partly why I picked it.

I think that's totally fair. I will say about Ibraflus to give some more substantive commentary. You don't have to. Something that gets lost. You made your point. We did the NFC North this week on my pod, and something, it comes out tomorrow. That gets a little bit lost when we talk about him is him taking over the defense in the second half of the year after all the weirdness there and how amazing they played. There are numbers that are a little... This is probably why there was a lot of turnovers, which can tend to be a predictor for regression. But I think that back seven is really good. I think it's a really talented young secondary, really great linebacker duo. I think pass rush is a question mark, but it's an aggressive team. I think they're going to trade for a pass rusher at some point. I actually agree with you, Greg. I think that's a little bit high of a line, but I am optimistic about this team, generally, and I think they're going to be fighting for a playoff spot.

I'd like to report. I think the bears are going to be fine. Trent Williams has not posted on Instagram since Super Bowl, and his last tweet is a retweet from two years ago in which Chato Chocinco ranks him as one of the five most fashionable guys, Trent Williams, behind Steve Harvey.

How do I get like that?

Yeah, I love a life without any social media. I'm jealous. I'm already regretting this bear's pick. It's not fun. I totally believe in Caleb. I could have picked more fun ones.

Maybe I will. The bear's in the third easiest schedule, according to Sharp Analytics. They have a quarter I don't get that, though.

Yeah, it all depends on different systems. I mean, the NFC North? Yeah, different systems. Nfc West, NFC North. They do have those three games, the layups I mentioned. They had Carolina, Washington, New England on their schedule, which that'll help. All right, we're going to take a break, and then we will pick our last two teams each right after. We are back on NFL Daily. I've got a big board like Kevin with about 13 more picks, and still not totally I'm really excited which ones I'm going to take, but I don't have to worry about that right now because Kevin Clark from This is Football has come up with two electric takes so far, and we're going to hear what his next one is.

I wish I could trade back because I have so many teams I want to I do, and I can't.

That's the thing with this draft. Every single pick is literally 50-50, just about.

All right. There's a couple of can of worms I don't really want to open right now. I'm going to do what you did, which is just go back to the well on a really bad team. It's the New York Giants under six and a half. I only saw Cliff from Hard Rocks. Was not impressed with their operation there. I do think like Malik Nabors- What's Hard Rocks-based analysis?

How are you going?

I do think Malik Nabors... Joe Shank, pretty good-looking guy. Malik Nabors is going to be really good, but I don't think Daniel Jones is very good. I still think that they have talent holes in a lot of different places, and I just don't think... I think they're a very boom and bust team. They have some high-level blue-chip guys, but boy, I don't see a lot going on here, Phellus. I don't see a lot.

6.5 feels fair to me. Mina, both the Giants and Commanders are 6.5. Cowboys are at 9.5. Eagles at 10.5. There are cases for the Giants. I think the defense could absolutely improve. I think the offensive line could be the best offensive line. Daniel Jones has played by not good, but it's always been bottom three or four in the NFL. I think it actually will be better this year. So I think six and a half feels fair. I feel like there are six to seven wins.

Let me counterpoint that. I think Dana Jones is very bad. I think I've called him the Holy Trinity, which is expensive, injury prone and bad. The big three, as I call them.

Very, very bad.

And Chris Cantu was on my show yesterday, former giant, played with a lot of great quarterbacks. And I said, we're talking about the Daniel Jones getting a check down intercepted and what's that like? And he was like, he said, well, he played with Romo and and Eli and Flacko and guys who won a lot of things. And he was like, but there was one year where I was hurt, and we played with Brad Johnson. And then we played with Brooks Bollinger because Brad Johnson was so bad. And he was like, you see quarterback play. And And you just check out from it because it's so bad. And I think sometimes, I'm not saying it's going to happen week one with Daniel Jones, but he was like, literally, there becomes a point where the quarterback play gets so bad, this is Chris Canty talking, where you just say, I'm just going to get out of here happy and healthy. I'm good. I'm all set. Let's just live the fight another day. And I'm a little bit worried that Daniel Jones... And I thought there was a really great QB school breakdown of Daniel Jones in the reception the other day that I watched.

And some of it is just the vanilla scheme, and he didn't have anywhere to throw. Some of it was guys running the wrong route, but he just seemed to not control the football. And I think that it's not going to get any better. That particular skill is not going to get any better. He's not not athletic enough to overcome that in any meaningful way. He's able to do it for a game, but not for 17. Brian Dable seems a little prefired to me, a little prefired, slightly prefired.

How long was this QB school breakdown of the Daniel Jones?

It was like 40 minutes. It was like 40 minutes.

I was locked in. I don't know nearly as much as JT O'Sullivan does, and I can't look at a play and tell you exactly the right reads in the way that he can. But I watched that first interception, and I could break it down for you just by going. That's what it looked like to me. I don't think Daniel Jones plays all 17 games with them. Not because of injuries. I think that at some point.

I know what you're getting at.

Threw lock, baby. Which, by the way, doesn't- John Schneider tried to drop that little bomb in the offseason. I love I wish GMs did that more.

I love it. I love it, too. I'm not going to say I'm a Daniel Jones defender, but I did watch the entire first half, and he threw more high-level throws in that game than I've seen Daniel Jones throw in any game in a while. So I at least was like, okay, at least he's trying.

I saw some of those on the QV school. Those were broken down. I saw every throw he made.

Having friends in this industry over the course of many years, because you have always been a Dale Jones defender. You're so full of right now. You have always... You have four years defender him.

I've always said he's about... If he was protected, he would just be close to the league average. That's all I've said. I thought he was vastly overrated after 2022, but it's always been such a bad situation. He was like, he can deliver it if you protected it. But that's a lot of crapping on Daniel Jones. That's too bad. Mina, give me your next one, Mina.

By the way, I don't disagree with what you just said about him. I just don't think that situation is... It's It's not like he's dropping in. I don't think the offensive line is going to be that much better. All right. I've had two picks already, so I'll spend my third on the homer pick. I'm going over Seahawks seven and a half. I feel like that's a pretty obvious one, honestly. This is an offense that I think finished either 12th or 13th in DBOI off the top of my head. I think that we're going to see some improvement this year, hopefully with better offensive line play. That's the only thing I'm concerned about. The right tackle situation is dicey, but everything else I think will be good. And I'm really excited to see what Ryan Grub plays to the table, brings to the table. Pardon me, I'm still high on Gino. The flip side, though, is why I'm making this bet. The Seahawks defense was god awful last year. And I think that they played below their talent level. And I think the addition of Mike McDonald on that side of the ball, even if he can get them just to average, which I think is totally plausible with the talent that they have on that roster, that gets you over seven and a and a half wins pretty easily.

I completely agree. First of all, Grub was really good last year at spreading the ball around in Washington. He's got those targets in Seattle. I think we're all junior defenders here. He's going to be able to spread the ball around. Mike McDonald is really freaking smart, really freaking smart. I think we're going to see... I think Pete Carroll probably got a bit of a raw deal, but I think sometimes you just need a little bit of a shot in the arm, and Mike McDonald is going to go about that. Yeah.

This number surprised me as much as any. If I was more strategic, I would have taken this before Mina could have because I definitely love it, and it would have been one of mine. It's weird that they've won nine games in the last two years. I know the schedule is a big part of it. They all have tough schedules in the NFC West, in and out of division, and I know that's a big part of it. But grub McDonald 2024. That, to me, is the campaign I'm behind. They're If you picked... I know I was saying offensive line, defensive line. That maybe would be the question of, are they better than average at either? Definitely not on offensive line. But they're elite wide receiver, cornerback combination. And those are positions that are highly paid, highly important. That is as good as a wide receiver plus cornerback group as there maybe is in the league. I'm going to go next because it's connected. And I decided this is for information. But it's also an entertainment show. Why not go big and get a little spicy or have some fun and go under 49ers, 11.5?

I thought about that.

To combine with it. Because I've just been... I thought about that. This is not a talent argument because that argument doesn't quite work, so that's dangerous. It's a schedule and human nature argument. Great division. We mentioned the schedule. They play the AFC East out of division. Pretty tough. Nfc North out division. They're extra games. The three extra games are at Green Bay, at Tampa Bay, and Chiefs. So if you were trying to come up with what's just about the toughest schedule possible, that's close to that. Okay, so that's number one. Then they're in this situation where they have all the trappings of a team that's won repeatedly without the actual fun of having done it, the weight of it all. I could absolutely see them winning 10 or 11 games. And this being the year, they win the Super Bowl anyways. But I still win this over under because it's a tough regular season, and maybe they don't win this division, and maybe they have to get in as a wild card. There's other reasons to it, but those are the main ones.

The biggest pitfall to me for the over is them thinking October doesn't matter. January matters. So if they need to experiment for two weeks, they're going to, Hey, we're going to figure it out. Or, Hey, we're going to hold a guy out for a couple of weeks because all that matters is January. If Brock Prodi is banged up, do we sit him in December? That's the biggest obstacle to me. They've got the talent, they got the coaching, we know what's going to happen. To me, it's do they care about the regular season or do they only care about January?

That's, by the way, what kept me away from the Chiefs. Same thinking. But another thing I think Greg has-They don't care. They just... Yeah, I know. That's why I'm like... Roger Mahomes is just like...

That was in my show. He was like, They'll just spend a year being like, Hey, let's just develop this one part of our game, and we'll lose two games, and we'll see you in January when the Super Bowl.

We're going to do all shovel passes for one game just to see. Another point I think- We're going to see if Kaderius Tony could play in the NFL. It's like a Mr..

Beast video. We took Kaderius Tony and put him in the NFL.

The Niners were the fourth healthiest team in football last year, and that, to me, seems unlikely. It's already. I mean, you don't have to write Greenlaw. There's McAfree. I know they're saying he's fine, but he's been out. It's just a little bit of history There's no history there.

Debo history, Bosa history. The D-line is thinner if I wanted to get a little more just tangible. They're really counting on this Malik Collins, Leonard Floyd. It's just not quite what it was. Now, I'm saying all that thinking like, yeah, there's still the odds on favorites to win the division. They're still amazing. But just 11.5, it's the human nature thing. It's the regular season thing. All right, we've reached our last round here, Kevin. This is exciting. We have not flown I'm going to run through this, so you will not have to prepare five picks. This will be your final selection, Kevin.

There's three teams I'm staring at, one over, two unders.

You can just say them because what does it matter? Let's hear. No, don't.

You're going to take five.

No, no, no. I'm just curious. No, we can do honorable mentions at the end. Yeah, we can do honorable mentions at the end. This is crazy. This is such a homer pick because they have... Just to please I'm going to give you, Greg, because they have one of the hardest schedules in football. The New England Patriots are going to win more than four and a half games.

They're on mine, too. My list, too. Four and a half.

Drake May. It's stupid. So first of all, like, Drake may look bad in practice for two reasons. First of all, it's a different sport going from college to pro because the hash marks are different and teams don't disguise anything at the college level, and you've never seen a complicated blitz in your life, okay? So he looks bad because he's going against the Patriots defense, which learned ball from Bill Belichick, and who currently works under Geron Mayo, who also learned it from Bill Belichick. They're a talented defense that can make any young quarterback's life hell, especially a guy who only played essentially two seasons at UNC in the ACC. And the fact that he looked rough for the first couple of weeks should be expected. And the fact that everybody was so doom and gloom was surprising to me. Then you have the floor of the offense, top 10 yards allowed. There's still a lot of talent there. There's still Arbelichek, it's just Brian who's there. Gerard Mayo is a defensive coach. They're going to be fine. And that's all you need for over four and a half wins.

Yeah, the schedule, it's crazy. I mean, I know it'll end up getting easier, but when you look at their first seven or eight games, it's wild to see a team that's projected to have five fewer wins than anyone else in their division. And I heard you on the defense, but they did fatten up last year on the easy QBs a little bit. It is a little worrisome that their two most talented players in the front seven are either not there or in Christian Barmore's case, out indefinitely with this blood clot issue. I agree. They are in a a little bit, but I'm with you. I wrote them down. I just wasn't going to pick them because it just feels like bad juju.

Too many good players on this defense still. The Barmore injury loss really hurts me. That makes me nervous about them being top eight or whatever. I had them projected. But I think Keion White is going to have a monster season. Uche contract here. I still feel good about Anthony Jennings. Just like a lot of players who are good, too. I mean, the linebackers are good, corners are good. You got Gonzales back. Phil Yates who's very plugged into the Patriots, is a huge fan of DeMarcus Covington, who they promoted to be the defensive coordinator. I just think this defense is too good to lose four games.

I just don't see it. Yeah. The offensive talent is actually better than it's been. One of the Eagles report is Bo Wolf put it this way when he was watching. This is more a comment on the Eagles, but he was like, if you were ranking the wide receivers at their joint practices, it's like, obviously, it's A. J. Brown and Devante Smith, one and two. But then the next seven people were Patriots. They actually do have six number three receivers. None of them are very good in terms of elite players, but I think it's better with Ramondre than it's been.

It's funny that the packers have six number twos and the Patriots have six number threes.

It's just Not really how you want a team build, but I like that. Thank you for kissing up. That was on my longer list as well. All right, Mina, your last pick.

All right. I'm staring at the sun this one. I'm touching the third rail. The monkey's paws about to curl. I'm taking stealers under eight and a half. I know. My talent doesn't lose.

Makes so much sense.

But man, this team... So last year, they won 10 games. They had seven 9.9, Pythagory and Thems, which wins, which was 21st. They ranked 21st also in a points margin. They were very healthy last year. I know T. J. Watt missed some games, but they were seventh in adjusted games lost. I'm not over waiting the preseason here, but I feel like a bet on this team is that the defense continues to play at an elite level, which they've got a lot of aging players, and that the offense is an improvement on last year. And I don't know about that offense, guys. What did you call the Raiders' quarterback competition, Hostile? This one is hostile. Hostile four, Hostile Five, Hostile Six.

Hostile towards the sport. Hostile, Saw. It's the Saw franchise. I had that on my longer list. I completely agree. My only concern, I actually said this I thought about this recently. The reason jetliners don't crash, usually don't crash, is because there's 500 things that have to go wrong, they say. And if one thing goes right, the airplane stays in the air. That's how the stealers are built. The plane is always in the air because they always have a good line. They always have a good front seven. There's not a lot of distractions. The defense, the coaching is always sound. Mike Tomlin is really good at motivating his guys and just telling them directly what they need to hear. I think a lot about the line from Seth Wickersham's book, where Jimmy Johnson told Belichick that... I think the phrase was, 24 teams will just get out of your way. The Steelers are always in the eight, always. That's why I just think they win more games than they lose every single year, including this year.

The only thing Mike Tom is not good at, though, is hiring offensive coordinators. It used to be. I don't know. Maybe Arthur Smith works, and I have some optimism that it's an upgrade from Matt Canada, but he hasn't really been able to figure out how to construct an offense. It's been a minute. All right, I'm going to... Man, I think I'm just going to go for the one that's more fun because I have two unders that I feel pretty strongly about. I'll just say I'm Browns and Saints.

Yeah, Browns is one of mine.

Maybe let's talk Browns after this. We'll just add it, but I'm not going to do that. I want to finish feeling positive in one that I do I truly believe in, too, which is the the most basic one on the board, maybe Texans over nine and a half to me.

I had that.

Just like, they're so freaking talented. It's just crazy. Anyone that's gone through their training camp is always like, when they leave their training camp, they're just like, oh, my God, their players are just so freaking good, Mina.

The flip side of the Daniel Jones meltdown was, holy Texas defense. It's going to be sick this year. Derek Steenley looks like he's ready to have a top three cornerback type season. Daneel Hunter, absolute monster opposite Will Anderson. I'm so geeked on that defense right now. And oh, by the way, they have the rookie quarterback who broke records and also looks… I mean, I I feel like you can't be high enough on the 2024 Houston-Jexus right now.

So he had the best deep passer rating in history. And where he struggled, oddly enough, was short and intermediate. So you go out and you get, I believe, the third best intermediate receiver in football last year, and Stefan Diggs, pair that with the normal growth, pair that with year two with his offensive coordinator. They're going to be awesome this year. Like, truly awesome.

They remind me so much of the Lions a year ago where they were that team. Then everyone, by the end, doesn't want to seem too basic by the time the season starts. I don't know if there was lines pushed back by the start of that year. It's like, no, they actually did show who they were at the end of the previous season. They really are that talented. The coaching staff is great. The division is interesting. We showed the over-unders and like, colds eight and a half. I'm not opposed to that either. The Jaguars, to me, are just a tough team to talk about, to figure out. I'm actually going to be talking with John Shippley of Jaguars on si. Com on our next show because Jaguars are a team that fascinates me. But man, C. J. Stroud, you're always betting on the quarterback, Drew Dynsec of NBC, who I think is really good with this stuff. He has this podcast, Bet the Edge. He sees Ravens to 2019 in this Texans team, second-year quarterback I don't think that might compete for the MVP, and they have a 13, 14 win upside. I don't think that's crazy.

With these overs or unders, I want ones that I think they have a chance to beat by three or four. I feel like the Texans do have a chance to beat it by two and a half or three. That's my last one. And yeah, to mention Browns, just to get it in there, but it's not going to count. Not going to count towards their draft. It's the vibes. It's the defensive decline. Jim Schwartz. Here's the more tangible reason. Jim Schwartz. I've been watching this now for 20 years. He just pops up every five years with an absolutely electric defense. Go look to see what happens the next year. The other 15, 16 years he's had as a defensive coordinator have mostly been fine. He did get two in a row at one point in Tennessee, and that's what got him the Detroit job. But other than that, he has four or five epic defensive seasons, and the rest are just in the middle. That's just the decline. Then also just injuries. Watson's out of practice today with arm soreness.

Yeah, I was going to say general arm soreness. Right.

I've talked so much about Watson. I was leaving that out of it because Jameis might not be even a downgrade, but Dalvin Tomlson, Denzel Ward, Jack Conklin, Jedrick Willis, Greg Newsop. It's all these guys Going into the season. Everybody's hurt. So that's a lot.

It's literally 52 people are hurt and they're on the side. And then the only one in the field are Mike Brable and Jameis Winston running sprints over and over and over again. That's the 2024 Cleveland Browns.

I love that. Sorry, they're 11. Oh, no, I must have clicked. They're there. I'm sorry.

They're eight and a half. So it would be under eight and a half. Eight and a half is fair enough. It's just more... That's one where I could see the wheels falling off a little bit. Maybe I'm overrating, and I'm obviously not a Watson fan, but them and the Saints stuck out to me as teams that if they get off to a creaky start, that it could just-I'm not touching the NFC South with the 10-foot pole. I hear you on that. In this exercise? Yeah, I thought about Over Bucks was on my list, but I didn't go there.

That division. May I ask why? I was surprised there was a team that didn't come up either way. It's the Vikings 6.5. I had all the Vikings. I could see that being a total disaster. Okay, I thought about Under Vikings.

Okay. Oh, really? No, that was on... If we had eight picks, they would have been... Over Vikings would have been one of my eight or nine picks. They were on my medium list. Why under, Kevin? That's cool.

Well, because Sam Dernald has been in the league for a long time. I pulled the stat up here. Since 2019, 39 quarterbacks have had 1,000 dropbacks. Among that group, Dernald ranks 37th in EPA per play and 36th in success rate.

Yeah, those first couple of years, I remember bringing it up on the around the NFL podcast, the historical comps that Sam Darnold had. We're always the worst quarterbacks in NFL history. I think he can be fine.

And then what happened in the ensuing years? Yes.

But Mina is with me on Over Vikings. All right, let's recap. Before I say goodbye, Kevin was wrong about the Vikings, but it's not going to count. We are going to keep track of this. Kevin went over Ram's eight and a half, under Raiders, six and a half, under Giants, six and a half, and over Pat's, four and a half. So he did not He did not really pick the best teams in the league. He trolled at the bottom, and we'll see. Mina goes over Bronco's five and a half, under Chargers, eight and a half. I like that. Over Seahawks, seven and a half, under Steelers, eight and a half. Those all make It makes a lot of sense to me, I have to say. Last one.

Chill just went down my spine.

Then I went for a lot of the more premium teams here. I went over Bill's nine and a half, under Bear's nine and a half, under 49ers, 11 and a half, and over Texan's nine and a half to make my son happy. I wanted him to fill this out as an exercise. I thought maybe it could be part of the show. Even I gave him the list, and he just went overs with the four teams that made the Championship game last year. I just realized you're not ready for this. You're Your Jordan love in your rookie season. That's not good content. You're just picking overs on the four best teams.

Who is on television talking about football. I think your son is ready for this because the analysis he just provided, I think, would work in certain programming.

You sound like Brian Flores in your son's Tua. You're just really giving him tough love.

No, I didn't tell that to him, but I was just like, Okay, I don't know if this is good content. All the teams that made the final four being over, that That doesn't get me going. But he's a big Texan's fan, so he'll like that pick.

What if I rebranded next year and was just one of those people who just tweeted how good a team is going to be every single day?

Would that be a career move? What format are we talking about? What tweet format?

Just like I make a video and I'm just like, here come the Raiders.

They're going to be a problem.

Everybody's sleeping on the Raiders. Everybody's sleeping on the Riders. Everybody's sleeping on the Riders.

I did not do an entire offseason of NFL Daily, but next year, that is my plan to go through every team and at one point, give their fan base just a little something to chew on that they're underrated because who's going to really listen to all of them?

I feel terrible for saying this. There's a guy who does that in college, and I get really annoyed with him. And And one day, he just sent me a random DM. Every team is going to be a problem this year. He just randomly sent me a DM. Never met him in my life. He just said, Thank you for all you do for the sport of football. I was like, What a DM. I love this guy.

And you felt just all those fan bases. He was calling you underrated. Everybody's sleeping on Kevin Clark.

You guys do a lot. You do a lot for the sport. You're making us all smarter, Kevin, at ESPN.

Can I quickly tell a Daniel Jones story that I wasn't able to tell earlier? Does anybody have to go?

You can. You can't know now. There's no timeline. Okay. All right.

If this story sucks, you can cut it. So I went to a Zack Bryant concert, which after Arlington at the Super Bowl, and it was presented by a beer the company, and I had a lot of the beer company. A lot of it was served, and I had a lot. And I was actually, ironically, going to afterwards meet up with the NFL Live crew at a different event. So I have so much, and I'm leaving, and it's late, and I ended up not meeting up with the NFL Live crew, and Darland Tune and I are just having a blast at the Zack Ryan concert. And I check my camera roll the next day, and I remember this. It wasn't like I blacked out, but I took an uncomfortably close photo of Daniel Jones and Shane Gillis talking to each other, just to look at the valet, just like a creep shot. And I don't know why I did it. I don't know if it was to send my Giants fan friends or whatever. But now I've been thinking, I've been horrified at this ever since is like, did they look at me and we're like, why is this guy taking a creep shot of us at the valet?

Which, by the way, I didn't valet a car. I walked down the Vegas trip. So now I've just got this creep shot on my phone, and I now have been wondering if they looked at me and were like, This guy's a creep.

Well, let me tell you, I don't think Daniel Jones sees that far away that well based on his quarterback play over the last four years.

Brutal. I mean, we spent five minutes getting after Daniel Jones earlier, and then we end the show with that. I want you to send this, Kevin, and if you can send this picture to me, we could add it if you feel comfortable with that. But I'm with you. I did that same thing when I saw Shoheya O'Tani on the On the field at the Rams game. I totally lost my mind because it was Shoheya O'Tani, and then I realized I'm being a total creep. I'm like three feet away from this man and bothering him. And so I regret it. I hope you don't regret this.

But I'm not especially... I'm not I'm not... I was so close. Oh, my God. Oh, my God. I was so... Look at this. I was way too close.

Yeah, that's weird. Why is Jane Gillis always with NFL players? He was at Christian McCaffrey's wedding. I don't know. What?

I don't know. I do appreciate what you guys do for football, Kevin. I mean it. You're making us better. You're making us smarter with This is football over at ESPN and obviously, all the NFL programming around the Horn there. Check out his podcast. Check out the Mina Kheim show featuring Lenny. And as I mentioned, yeah, I will be back with our last show of the week. I'm very into the AFC South this year, Texans and Jaguars. We're actually doing a bit of a deep dive. Seth Payne, who covers the Texans, John Shipply, who does the Jaguars, and we'll recap the preseason games. Until then, see you next time.