Okay, I am here with Cynthia Freeland. She's done maybe 74 different shows for NFL Media during the week, including NFL Game Day View, which you should watch where we pick all the games. But this is the most important one because this is the one where you're going up against me.

One-on-one, you versus me for the Smug Picture Award.

Okay, so do we call this Model versus Machine? You talk a lot about your statistical model, whereas I'm just going off vibes, off feelings. We're going to pick three games every week. I'm very excited about this. Same. Against the spread. We're going to keep track. The number three felt right, just like we don't want this to be too long. We're only picking our best games. It can be Man versus Machine, which is complementary to me. Man, that's nice. Machine, I don't know. You're more than just a machine.

You're full of-I feel like machines are amazing because they're reliable, right? And I feel like I'm going to be more reliable in these gamepicks. So Man versus Machine works totally I'm really fine.

Or man versus model.

Listen, the model is good, too, right? Okay. People get confused what a model is, but I'm not like an Instagram model.

I'm like a computer modeler. It is a little confused. So maybe we'll let the listeners-Yes, they can tell us what they want. They can tell us. And I'm really excited. So we're going to pick three games of the week against the spread. We'll just throw out what we like. We'll keep track. And I'm going to start with the bills. This was the one early in the week. I knew, I saw that it was six and a half, and I liked it as my survivor pick. I liked them to win the Super Bowl. I'm trying not to just fall in love with my season-long pick because that's not a good thing to do in week one. But I look at this matchup and I think, who is rushing the passer for the Arizona Cardinals?

Buda Baker?

I mean, who is stopping the run for the Arizona Cardinals? Buda Baker? I I just think it's going to be such a high number that the Bills put up. I like Kyler Murray in this game. I drafted him. It's going to be a high score, but they are so thin, and the Bills have a sound enough defense that, yeah, they have some problems. I think they give up 25, 28 points. I feel I feel good about this. I am not going to take heavy favorites too often, I think, at the end of these weeks, but we'll see. But in a week one where there's so much uncertainty, I feel good about the Bills minus 6.5 as my first pick of the year. What about you?

Well, I have nine or almost 10 points in that game, so I clearly agree with you on that one. But I'm going to go someplace that feels a little bit more, oh, I don't know, like a Monday night barn burner where the Newark Jets come into Santa Clara and upset the 49ers. In other words, if you're telling me I can also have three and a half points to go with them, then I have them.

Four in some places. It's four and a half in some places. It depends where you get it in, but yeah, you're saying.

I don't even know any of that stuff.

You like them straight up.

I like them to just win. Jets end up one and no after this weekend. Why? Well, their O-line completely retooled. That is a huge, massive deal, especially when you already have a runner in Brees Hall. I know everyone is like, Oh, Kirstie McAfee is great. Yes, we understand. He's great, too. But I'm talking about why the Jets could have this upset. The Jets team, top to bottom, their starters are really, really good. And you've got Aaron Rodgers coming back. I understand it's a serious injury, but you know what Aaron Rodgers likes to do? He likes to prove everyone wrong all the time. Petty Aaron Rodgers is one of the best Aaron Rodgers to see. This is like an MVP, right? You think he comes back and he looks a little resty in '22, didn't play in '23. It feels like the model for how you would come out and be an MVP in '23. Right.

So on game day view, we have to pick every game against the spread. I was with you that the Jets cover in this game. I don't even feel that strong about the 49ers winning the game. So we're in agreement, but The Jets are not going to be one of my three picks, so we'll see there.

Go big or go home.

Yes. Steelers plus three and a half. I'm taking two favorites this week, which I don't love. The Steelers are the one underdog I'm taking. I like taking the points in week one. In general, there's just so much uncertainty. I would love to take a team that has more than three points that I think is going to win the game. That's the case for the Steelers in this. I don't care who starts at quarterback. We're taping this on Thursday after afternoon, and it's uncertainty. If Justin Field starts, I think they win. If Russell Wilson starts, I also think that they win this game. Straight up. The Atlanta Falcons were-Straight up or you think they win with the points? No, straight up. Atlanta Falcons were a four-win team last year. I know they're I know they won more games than that in reality, but if you look at this statistical profile, they were very lucky. They played such a bad schedule, and they barely won a lot of those games. To me, I look at the Steelers defense as the one group in this game that I know what I'm getting. I don't know what I'm getting with Kirk Cousins.

I don't know what I'm getting with this offense. I do think I'm getting a pretty bad Steelers offense overall and a pretty bad Falcon's defense overall. So give me the front seven. Give me Steelers plus five. I love it.

Minus three and a half. We are completely not aligned in this one because I have Atlanta winning by five points. So that would mean that I'm on.

But that's not one of your three pick.

No, it's not. I'm just telling you where I stand on this one. Before we were aligned, Kumbaya moment, Greg and sin, happy little campers. Now we are staunch opponents. Okay, my third one, New Orleans. I'm actually surprised that you didn't take this one. But okay, so my model is very conservative. We're going to talk about this because this is a different format. There's a certain break point where things become more known and more stable, and 58% is where it's at. This one's 55.7. So New Orleans to win is way up over 60. It's 64.9%. New Orleans to win by at least four points happens in 55.7. That's a very high number. Carolina, first of all, Brian Burns is now in New York. I also didn't know what was going on in their defense. I don't know if they did enough to address it. It looks terrible. I think this is going to be a situation where we see New Orleans, people like, Oh, all these rumors we hear like, Oh, Alan Kamara is back, and Crystal Lave is wonderful. Then it's just part of it is a function of who they're going to play. I just don't see that there's anyone on that Panthers defense that's going to stop them.

They're so thin in the secondary. I thought this number was a little crazy, too. It's funny because we're green so much. That means essentially I'm rooting for your picks, but I'm really not. This is like the man versus machine, man versus model, the Rainmaker versus the model. I want to win this one.

You're the Rainmaker now? Wait, you just branded yourself the Rainmaker?

Come on, get up to speed. Been the Rainmaker. Been making it rain for years. And it's not going to be raining in the Superdome. But I had this game 1710. I think it'll be a low-scoring game. But either way, I trust the Saints in this matchup. All right, my final pick is going to be Bucks minus three and a half against the Washington Commanders. So are we saying with that three and a half, and in some places it's three, that the Commanders and the Bucks are even? Really? I think we're getting a little too over our skis here with Jaden Daniels and the talent. I just mean that number. I love this one. Maybe I would have picked it first if I'm putting it in order of confidence. It's right there for me. I think this is an underrated team. I think they have great continuity in terms of their players versus Washington team, which really doesn't and doesn't in terms of the coaching staff. I feel good about Bucks minus three and a half.

I mean, look, I completely agree with you on that one. I think part of the reason that maybe it's so low is because there's a history of Cliff Kingsbury starting off seasons really strong. It's like he pulled all this. Really?

Does your model go into that? No, I'm just trying to- I'm just wondering, does Vegas get into that?

Yeah, of course they look at who the players are. My model gets into that big time, which is why season long, one of my strongest things is That Jaden Daniels is going to throw for at least 3,025 yards. So more than that. So just keep that in mind. Put that little feather in your cap right there. And you stole my other one. So I'm going to go.

Wait, you can pick it, too. I like it. If we agree on our third pick, we can be. You wanted that to be the third?

But I want to talk about the lions a little bit.

Okay, then go for a different third. Okay.

So I'm having my Motor City kitties to also win. I understand that your daughter is a massive fan of the Rams, and this is not a pick against her because I love her the most, but I love my lions, I think at home, I love Matthew Stafford. I keep saying love, but it's true. But I'm looking at the lions and I'm looking at this O-line, and there's no Aaron Donald. The defense is completely retooled. They're missing pieces in the secondary. So I think this is going to be a high score game.

Four and a half, though, against a good team or four or whatever the number is. I think it's three and a half. It depends where you get it.

I want to at least pick something a little more spicy. Okay. We can't agree on everything.

All right.

So to review- Just because we're best friends.

You are going- Just because we're best friends doesn't Me to agree on everything. I don't know about best friend. Friends. We're friends. I mean, best. That's like a high. We've been doing this show six years. It is fun. I am excited to pick some games against the spread against you all year. So to recap, I have Bills minus six and a half. I have the Steelers plus three and a half. I have the Bucks minus three and a half. You are taking the Jets, the Saints, and the Lions. I don't really disagree with any of yours, and yet we have different picks. The Saints were probably the next pick I was going to make. If you're out there and you're looking for other ones, I like the Colts, like the Chargers, like the Jacks, but I didn't like them as much. So bills, dealers.

I would have taken the Raiders with the points. Bucks.

Okay, so we disagree on that one. Not straight up. For just this one week, and yeah, if you're watching on YouTube, you'll see that we're in a nice Stage 5 studio. It's strange taping a podcast here. I've never done it before. But for just this one week- It feels like we're in our house.

We just sit awkwardly in chairs facing the same direction, not each other. That's how we normally talk.

Just this one week because it's going into the season and I got a lot of tweets, and I figured, why not just throw it out there? I'm not going to ask you to do this. No, it's fine. Some of my season-long over-unders before we get into it. Now, if you are a listener and you heard me with Meena Kimes and Kevin Clark, this was three or four weeks ago. My draft picks were Bills over nine and a half. I went Bear's under nine and a half. That was a little spicy as my number two pick. I feel a little weird about that, honestly, now, but I do like it. Texans over nine and a half. I feel great about that. And 49ers under eleven and a half.

I can spout off a few of them. I've done my Wintota homework.

I'm going to get to you in a second. Those were the four I took. And now that I look at it, that was going maybe a little extra spice more than just confidence, because I got to say, I feel even more confident in Seahawks over seven and a half. I feel even more confident in Cowboys under nine and a half. That's one of mine, too. Okay, so we're in agreement. The other two I like, Browns under eight and a half. I'm just fading that. Defense being as good this year and Deshaun Watson maybe making them worse at quarterback. And then the Bucks, we just talked about the Bucks over seven and a half. Those are my eight favorite. I don't know if you have any takeaways or thoughts.

Okay, so off the top of my head here, I know I like the Seattle one. I have a full game ahead. I love that one. For me, a full game is like never... Like I said, my model is very conservative, but I think that one's a great one. I also think that I'm on the other side of that bear's angle from you. I have the Patriots to have.

That's one of your favorites, the Under 4-1-1. Wow. I'm sorry.

It's not That's a very nice one.

I had that in my super duper long list that they'd be over because that just seems rude.

But I decided not to write it down. It seems low, but you trade away Matt Judon this late in the game. It's just hard to reproduce that pass rush.

I know, but 4.5 is a crazy low number. I also on my longer list went Chiefs over 11.5. Every year, the Chiefs get it done. I know they didn't last.

I think I have 11.4 for them, but to me, that's not strong enough to say it. I have the Eagles winning the NFC, though.

You have the Eagles winning the Super Bowl, which is crazy. So you like their over as well.

I do like their over, and I like the lines over. And I like the lines over there at ten and a half. I have them at 10.8.

Or 10.7. We're going to dork out on this every week. Vikings in that division, I like them over six and a half. Yes.

Oh, and the other one I like a lot. This one's going to sound crazy. The Broncos over five and a half. That is bananas. You know why? Because the Broncos get to play the NFC South.

And they get to play in the AFC West. And Sean Payne's never had a season close to that bet. That one, I'm with you. I'm not really that high on the Broncos, and yet I feel like they can't not win.

No, you don't have to be that high. Five and a half? Five. It's six they have to win. That's it. Six.

So we're going to dork out. I like the NFL Daily every week. It has different flavors. Thank you.

You're crushing it. This is a lot of work.

It's a lot of work. It's a lot of fun. But I like that there's different flavors to each show. We've never done a pure... Picks.

You almost said a word.

Gambling. Oh, the G-word. You can say it. It's not because we don't gamble. We're saying games against the spread. That's what we're doing. We're just playing a game within the game. I think that's more fun than picking it straight up. So we'll see how we do over the course of the season. We're going to do this each and every week. Tell us what you want to hear, but the three pics each and every week. She is the best in the business at doing it. It has been a blast all week on NFL Daily, but the week's not over. I will be back on Friday night recapping the game. Yes, the only Friday night recap of the year. Adam Lefko of TNT, who is a great dude, a great broadcaster, and an Eagles fan, is going to be joining me. I didn't know that. So you can catch us on YouTube live Friday night. We will see you then wrapping up Eagles and packers saying, Thank you, Cynthia. Yeah, this is a lot of fun. We're going to be doing it every week. We'll see you then. Love it.