Cbs News. Now, according to our US partner here, CBS News, that Donald Trump does win this first presidential contest in Iowa. Those numbers showed, of course, we don't have all of the precincts even near to be completed, counting, but that is a projection we're getting from our partner here, CBS News, and that we are able to report at this hour. You see the picture there? And this is what was expected. So I do want to talk about that with our panel here in the studio because all of us went into this, of course, expecting this result. Interesting to watch I know all of you looking at that map as well and what you were expecting. But Mark, you were looking very much, of course, at the rural versus urban areas and what difference you might be able to see so far there.

Yeah, it's really early. Going back, I looked at the 2016 results, and Marco Rubio zero, one, basically the three of the more populous counties, Des Moines, Davenport, and the Cedar Rapids. As we start to see those results come in, if Nikki Haley doesn't get any big momentum, because that's where she would probably likely get it. Then I don't see this being a good night for Nikki Haley. Rhonda Sanders is going to try to pull the Ted Cruz model going after the evangelicals and otherwise. But right now, if Nikki can't start pulling ahead in the more populous counties, then it's not going to be a good night for her.

I just want to add a bit more information we're getting in from our partner, CBS News. We all knew that Donald Trump was far and away the leader here in the polls. They're saying that he won with strong support among white evangelicals, very conservative voters. Also, his support was widespread. He won men, women, older voters, and younger voters, improving on his 2016 performance with all of those groups. Of course, we are still waiting for a lot of those numbers to get in, but that shows his strength in the state, doesn't it, congressman?

It truly does. If I was President Trump, I would go declare victory right now and get on his plane, fly to New Hampshire before anybody looks at the final results and starts talking about expectations. He's the winner, according to projections. Take the win. The problem, the thing is with the caucuses and why entrance polls are so accurate, and I think why this projection was made, it's because there's no secret ballot. When you do an entrance poll, you walk into a room where the public is there and people will see who you voted for. That's why I think the projection is so good.

Katie, and as we were just talking about all of the other issues as well, the issue of immigration helped boost Trump, apparently, and most Iowa caucus go goers largely dismissed his legal woes. This is the reporting we're seeing from our partner again, CBS News. But this gives us a good picture of where voters stand at this moment, this very first contest.

It's interesting having confirmation. We haven't got the total numbers yet, but confirmation of that support amongst white evangelical voters, because back in 2016, when he first ran in Iowa, that was a weak spot for him. He only got 22% of the white evangelical vote. He was polling now at about 50% of the white evangelical vote. I think that shows how he has consolidated the party. It also shows that Iowa, I think, has become more conservative since 2016, and he hasn't faced opponents who have really taken him on head-on, apart from Chris Christie, who's dropped out of the race. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, because they don't want to alienate Trump's support base, have been fairly careful about the way that they have challenged Donald Trump.Was that after a change?That was not the case back in 2016. Maybe that hurt him a little bit in Iowa when he was in 2016, and he was attacked full-throatedly. I think it It would be surprising if that changed because Nikki Haley would have to do a very sudden shift. Let's see how she comes out of this. If she has not had a really good night in Iowa, then I think some of the speculation over the last week or so, and maybe it was all of us in the press and all the political strategies wanting this to be a bit more of a race than it actually is.

Well, let's see how she actually manages, because I think that will change the narrative. You're so right about momentum. I remember on the Democratic side in 2020, when Pete Butta Judge actually He won Iowa for the Democrats, not Joe Biden in 2020, but it wasn't declared until three days later. So all the air had gone out of his balloon. He was trying to party and say that he had won it, and it wasn't actually declared for a few days. If you can get straight on that plane and get to New Hampshire and say, I was the one that wanted it. It helps you a lot. Eight days.

Eight days.

Eight days to capture that momentum if there is such a thing.

Well, we should say that we have heard also from CBS News that Donald Trump does want to go attend his E. G. Carroll trial tomorrow in New York before going to New Hampshire. That's just one note on his schedule. But, Congresswoman, if you look at what we have been talking about here, it is really remarkable the coalition of voters that Donald Trump appears to have been able to gather, not just in Iowa, but really across the country.

I think one of the challenges for the people who have been running against him is just as you said, is that it's hard to run against him without alienating his base. He is a politician who has managed to make his supporters share his personality and sense of self. An attack on him feels like an attack on them. It makes it very personal. And so they're very sticky. No matter how many charges, how many indictments, it's only brought them closer to him, even more supportive of him, as opposed to what normally happens to politicians when they are shrouded in that scandal. Usually, there is some stepping back, creating some distance, and that's just simply not happening here.

So, congressman, you were saying, if you were Donald Trump, say, I won, get on that plane, head over to New Hampshire. I mean, if you look at Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis, what would you tell them to do right now? Depending on, of course, the numbers at the end of the night. That's important.

When the end of the night comes, we'll see what their percentages are. I think their percentages will probably be higher than some anticipate. I think they have to figure out what their next step is. Nikki Haley is going to go full bore into New Hampshire, where polling has her close with President Trump. The candidate who has the most to lose tonight is my old colleague in the Congress, Ron DeSantis. Governor DeSantis won Florida in a mandate. He had a wide swath of voters that gave him an electoral landslide for re-election. Instead of being the governing governor and maybe taking the lane that Nikki Haley has taken from him and combining that with those who supported him that were pro-Trump but didn't want Trump. He could have been in a virtual tie with the President right now based on polling, but instead, he chose a path that Ted Cruz chose and lost.

Perhaps just a reminder, sorry, Congressman, a reminder to our international audience, Ron DeSantis has spent $35 million campaigning. When you put that in the perspective of other elections around the world, I think it's always so interesting that even a caucus, Nikki Haley spent something like the same, $70 million between the two of them. Donald Trump, he's only spent $11 million in Iowa, and yet is so far away.

I think tonight- Rhonda Santis. I'm sorry.

Go ahead, God.

I was just going to say, tonight really proves the case. People who have been running against Trump say that they can take the sometimes Trump voters and the never Trump voters and build a coalition that will be greater than the always Trump voters. And so tonight, when we see the outcome of this, we'll see whether or not that proves itself out. Was there enough votes in that sometimes Trump and never Trump group to actually overcome the always Trump?

Perhaps not in Iowa, but maybe in other states.

Mark, what does a victory, let's say, or at least success for Nikki Haley at the end of this night look like?

The ability to go on to the next day She's got to show that she's at least can be competitive, hold her own, even if it is a very distant second place. Right now, the polls have her down 28, 30 points. We'll see if that bears out, obviously, in the actual results. If she can go there, Maybe see if she can get into the 10 to 12 point loss in New Hampshire. But then where does she go from there? Polls right now have her losing her home state of South Carolina by 30 points. Ron DeSantis, he's pulling forth behind Chris Christie before he dropped out in New Hampshire. He put everything in Iowa. Where does he go? Is he still in this race a week from now?

Any one of these candidates has to rack up delegates early before we get to the winner take all seats where the President has an advantage in some of those Texas, some of these big states. They really have to dig into the delegate count early on.

Sooner rather than later. That's absolutely.