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[00:00:00]

We are heading to Sudan because we are going to get the latest on developments there. This is a desperate situation, the healthcare system, on the brink of collapse. This is after the country's second-largest city was captured by forces fighting against the army. Woodman, Honey, had been seen as a safe haven, frankly, well, not now. The Paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, or RSF, have taken it. There have been reports of summary execution, sexual violence, and other abuses too, by the RSF. The first six months of this conflict, UN estimates more than 9,000 people were killed. 6.7 million people are believed to have been displaced both internally and externally. 4.9 million people are at risk of extreme hunger and 25 million are in need of humanitarian assistance. For more on this now, we can speak to Jonas Horner, Sudan Analyst, former Deputy Director of the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group. Thank you very much for coming on the program. Thanks, my man. Just give us your assessment of where things stand today, a continuing deterioration.

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Yes, continuing deterioration. This is on the back of the Rapid Support Forces continued drive away from the Western region of Darfur, where they've had considerable success over the last month, and moving eastwards past the capital of Khartoum, which is in the center of the country, more or less, and to heartland areas of the country that are key for agriculture, key population centers. As you said, Wad medeney has been a destination for many of the displaced to flooded out of Khartoum, away from the vicious fighting that has really wrought serious destruction across infrastructure, homes, businesses, factories, they've all been largely destroyed in the country. Many of these people had taken shelter in Wadmede. They're very concerned for their welfare being there as the RSF sweeps through, and as those populations worry about the RSF's tribalized and ethnicized killing sprees that occurred in Darfur.

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What's the international response or international solution here?

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Well, in practice, there hasn't been a great deal of pushback, and there hasn't been a great deal of intervention in this conflict. There have been attempts by the US and the Saudi at a forum in Jeda, which has unfortunately failed several times over. The regional forum, EGAD, have a current attempt to bring about a cease-fire underway. But unfortunately, both sides seem to seek a military outcome here, and so they're focused on that. But I must say that the last maybe two weeks or so have perhaps changed an equation for many of the stakeholders, both in Sudan and outside of Sudan, given the RSF's rapid ascent and rapid ability to move across Sudan's landscape successfully taking all of these towns, ideally, we would really like to see the US and the UK and the EU approach some of the benefactors of these two militaries and have them intervene to halt fighting on their behalf.

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What's your assessment of the chances of that? What's your level of optimism, hope?

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Low. Sudan, especially even after its quite spectacular start, this conflict in Sudan really didn't garner that much attention. Certainly thought it was filed away below other conflicts, even in the region below, places like Ethiopia, which had a recent devastating conflict, but also Ukraine, and now more recently, Gaza. And so the bandwidth internationally to pay attention to what is a genuine humanitarian disaster and has real repercussions for the region and geopolitics and the Red Sea. We've seen a task force set up to address Red Sea security just this week. But all of these things are issues that Sudan touches on. I would suggest it is to the detriment of the international community that they continue to not give enough attention to this country.

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Okay, Jonas Horner, thank you very much for coming on the program. Thank you.

[00:04:17]

Thank you.