A note to the Biden and Trump campaigns. If history shows us anything, it's that presidential debates are mostly remembered, not for style or substance, but for those unexpected moments which can either boost or doom a candidate's chances. Since the first televised presidential debate in 1960, the candidates need no introduction. We've witnessed decisive political showdowns full of pivotal moments and sometimes self conflicted wounds, like Richard Nixon appearing sweaty and oddly passive against a more confident John F. Kennedy. Mr. Nixon, would you like to comment on that statement? I have no comment. Or Ronald Reagan flipping his age issue against Walter Mondale with this classic line. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent's youth and inexperience. Despite all the preparation, debates sometimes bring out the less appealing sides of a candidate, like Michael Dukakis appearing emotionless in 1988. Governor, if Kitty Dukakis were raped and murdered, would you favor an irrevocable death penalty for the killer? No, I don't, Bernard. I think you know that I've opposed a death penalty during all of my life. Or Al Gore in 2000, sighing and exasperated in his debate with George W. Bush. I've had a record of appointing judges in the state of Texas.

That's what a governor gets to do. Kristen, with Passed as Prolog, should Biden lean into his age issue? Should he be ready? He's no Ronald Reagan, but should he be ready with some prepared one-liner when Trump goes after him on age or acuity or fitness for office?

He needs to be ready to address it, but he should not lean into it. There was a time when experience may have gone in his favor. That was four years ago. That is not right now. Americans are not saying, yes, you are over the age of 80, and that's wonderful. So he really needs to demonstrate that the age is nothing but a number rather than lean into it as any a selling point.

The people I've been talking to at the White House say the best way for Biden to handle the age issue is how he performs in the debate. To just show over the course of those 90 minutes that he's up to four more years. Cara, does Biden need to lean in, especially if Trump goes after him in some way on this issue?

Well, he can push back at Trump because Trump's had a number of mistakes in speaking. It's just he seems more vibrant. Like I said, he seems like the guy. He who? Trump seems like the guy in the senior cafeteria who's yelling about who stole his pudding, but it seems vibrant, at least. That's the problem is that even though I think they probably have-So is there anything Biden could do, or is it basically show us? Maybe one line, but showing us rather than tell is critical here. Show versus tell is absolutely critical, but he should have a line tucked away, some little line that is funny. I'm sure he has lots of comedians at his disposal. Try to get one good line.

It would be great for Biden to lean into the age issue if he were actually capable of doing it. But I don't think he's actually capable of carrying it off in the way that Ronald Reagan did. Of the two candidates on that stage, Trump is actually funny, capable of being funny. And Biden excelled in 2020. The memorable line of that debate was when he said, Will you shut up? When he showed exasperation and was dismissive of Trump's constant interruptions and being annoying. And I think you got to play to who you are.

Then there are the gaffes when despite all the coaching from their teams, a candidate steps in it. Here's President Gerald Ford in a 1976 debate with Jimmy Carter. There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe, and there never will be under a Ford administration. You know, I I watched this, and then the reaction from the questioners. It was a team of questioners, and Max Franklin, The New York Times looked like he had just said, The sky is falling. It was just utter disbelief. Nia, who do you think of these two, Biden and Trump, I'll leave Jerry Ford out of it, is more likely to have a bad moment.

Listen, I think it's probably Trump, because Trump doesn't really know policy. He doesn't really know substance. He has these broad takes on the world, broad takes on the economy. But when it comes to history, and even in some ways, his own past and what he did in his own administration, he isn't well-versed in that. So I think it's much more likely that he'll do it. Listen, I think they're both gaffe prone, but I think the more costly gaffe will likely come from Trump.

Eliana, Do you agree with that? I mean, both of these guys are fully capable of digging a hole for themselves. Who do you think is more likely to?

I don't agree with that. I think Biden is more likely, and I assure you his team is the more nervous going into this debate of the two. He has been kept away. He's spending the weekend away. He had only a couple of public appearances this week, and it's what we've seen in his administration. I also think the format is going to greatly help Trump unintentionally. In 2020, when the mics were not muted, when the other candidate was talking, Trump was interrupting constantly. It was distracting. He looked annoying and seemed like a bully. Now, they'll be muted, and I think that will accrue to Trump's benefit. I also think not having an audience will actually accrue to Trump's benefit and that he will not be playing to a crowd.

So you're almost saying that all of these rules that have been set up are going to save him from himself?

I think I do.

Interesting. Actually, I think he'll make a mistake. He can't help it. He was just in a room with a lot of CEOs as you heard about, that he met a bunch of CEOs who were somewhat positive to him. I've talked to a number of people there, and he blew it on every account with a lot of people because he couldn't move quickly, especially on policy. When they were asking about policy, and he They didn't want jokes.

I have one quick story to tell. When I did the debate between Clinton and Trump in 2016, they each got two minutes, and these were all policy questions. You all know that if you have two minutes that's yours exclusively, you use every bit of it and probably go over a little bit. Trump would often be finished talking about an issue of substance in a minute 20, a minute 30. He couldn't fill up a minute 30 worth of time on substance.

What was interesting, a lot of them surprised by the cognitive issues, like that he would go from one thing to the next. So tangential stuff will be a problem for him.

Then there are the iconic moments, prepared or spontaneous, when one candidate crushes the other. My favorite was the vice presidential debate in 1988 between Senator Dan Quale and Lloyd Benson. I have as much experience in the Congress as Jack Kennedy did when he sought the presidency. Senator, I serve with Jack Kennedy. I knew Jack Kennedy. Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine. Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy. And that was a guttural roar like I've never heard before. Kristen, who do you think is more likely, whether it's... And that, I have a feeling, was canned and prepared because Quayle had this ridiculous habit of comparing himself to Jack Kennedy. Who do you think is more likely to have a winning moment?

I think Biden's fate is entirely in his own hands. I don't think that there's anything that Trump can do to be the kill shot here. But that means that for Biden, because these expectations are so low, if he does something like, you may recall in the State of the Union a few years ago, he gets into it with Marjorie Taylor-Green, and that becomes the clip that everyone remembers. I think if Biden exceeds that very low bar, he has the most opportunity for a winning moment, purely in part because of those expectations.

Nia, I want pick up on that because a lot of people are going to watch the debate, billions. But a lot of people won't or won't focus on that and will really review what happened in terms of the clips and what's out there the day after. Who's more likely to have the winning clip?

Listen, I think Biden, if he is spontaneous, I don't think he should have prepared lines as much as just off the cuff. That's what you saw in the State of the Union. I think he can be witty, he can be smart and fast on his feet. And I think that's what was so great about his State of the Union performance, and I think he can bring that here. Again, he is smarter at policy, at doing the job of the presidency than Donald Trump is. I mean, that is just an objective fact.

The only thing I'd say back to that is, but Trump is a showman. Don't ever underestimate him.