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What do we.

Know about how young people vote or if they plan to vote? These are the questions that run John de la Volpe's life. He's Director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, which just released its youth poll for fall of 2023. My colleague David Chalian had de la Volpe on the CNN Political Briefing Podcast, and we thought you'd get a lot out of the conversation and we wanted to share it with you. Now we'll be back with a new episode of The Assignment on Thursday, but in the meantime, please stick around.

Hey, everyone, I'm David Chalian, CNN's political director, and welcome to the CNN political briefing. What do young voters think about the race to the White House in 2024? My CNN colleague, Jeff Zelany, recently spoke to young voters in Georgia about the election and their feelings on the candidates. Let's hear what they have to say.

I do think that everyone is willing to hold the administration accountable for some of those promises that were made, and if they don't happen, I think it's going to be a scary election. If they can fund a war, they can find the money to pay off our student loans. We have to pick between two.

Different people.

Who are very, very old and of the age.

We would like to see Biden.

Pass through the time.

Young voters were a key demographic for the Biden-Harris ticket in 2020. That is especially true in Georgia, where Biden defeated Trump by about 11,000 votes out of nearly 5 million cast. But as we just heard, the young people Jeff spoke to expressed a fair amount of skepticism and apathy about this year's race. Now there's some data to back this up. A new National Harvard youth poll found young Americans are less likely to say they're going to vote in 2024 than they did at this point in the last presidential election cycle. Now, is that a bad warning sign for the President? What does it tell us about Democrats and Republicans' efforts to court young voters? John de la Volpe is the Director of Poling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, which conducted the youth poll. He joins me now to share more of the poll's findings. John, thank you so much for joining me.

Thanks for having me, Dave. It's great to be with you.

John, what occurred this year in your survey research that sounded an alarm to you, or you saw a different pattern taking place than you have with all your expertise in hearing from young voters and their thoughts? What did you see happen this year? You said something different is going on.

I've been doing this for 23 years, almost a quarter century, talking to young Americans, dating all the way back to Gen Xers and millennials, of course. And now when we think about the youth, 18 to 29 year olds is what we focus on at Harvard Institute of Politics. Most of those are Gen Zers. So what I found was despite the record levels of turnout and participation in 2018, in 2020, in 2022, and even early parts of 2023, at the same time, we saw this rapid rise of cynicism across most every cohort within the youth vote, specifically among people of color, which has led them to tell us in multiple points this year that they are far less likely to participate in the '24 campaign. And of course, I think that's bad for democracy, and it's especially bad if you're sitting in the White House and are a supporter of Joe Biden and Democratic ticket right now.

So to put that in a larger context, how would you describe the power of the youth vote? There's always this notion that young people don't show up as great numbers as they represent as a portion of the population as perhaps some other age groups do in terms of election participation. So how would you describe the power of the youth vote in an American election?

Very simply, in 2020, without younger people, Donald Trump would have been reelected to President. Without young people in 2022, Mitch McConough would be the leader of the Senate. Specifically, and I spent a lot of time on the CNN exopoles, I can see the five key battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. Donald Trump won the vote of everybody over the age of 45, convincingly. It was the double-digit average about a 20-point margin for younger people that made that difference, David. The millennials, the 30 to 42, 44-year-olds were also supportive, but by a slimmer margin. It is the turnout as well as the share of the vote for Biden in 2020 that made all the difference, and it's a different country because of that.

We have seen in some recent elections, correct me if I'm wrong, in terms of turnout, some record-breaking turnout for the youth vote.

That's correct. Let's start with 2018, which is really the first cycle where Gen Z, I think, really had the opportunity to show their voice. David, when we look at midterm elections over the last 40 years or so, when I was a young voter as a Gen Xer, when millennials were young voters, and when baby boomers were young voters, those groups voted at half the level of Gen Zers today. The average turnout in midterm elections was in the teens, somewhere 14, 15, as high as 20% turnout among all eligible voters. In 2018, they essentially double that. It was in the mid-30s or so, and it was close to that. It was closer to that than the teens, certainly in 2022 as well. And in 2020, a lot of people don't appreciate the fact that for the first time, over half of all eligible young people voted, well over half, and which far exceeded even the turnout when Barack Obama built his coalition in 2008. So it's this combination of heightened participation and turnout, as well as a series of values that are aligned much more neatly with the Democrats that I think has really impacted politics in ways that young people in greater ways than they have in generations.

And just for the purposes of our audience, when we're referring to young voters, you're mostly referring to 18 to 29-year-olds. Is that correct?

Yeah, specifically, that's what we're referring to with the Harvard data. But some polls will talk about 18 to 34-year-olds. There aren't a lot of differences between a 29 and a 34-year-old during this conversation. But yes, generally, voters under 30.

Do you ever take a stab, if you will, at a guess as to why you're seeing greater participation levels among Gen Z than those previous generations you discussed?

Oh, I can take more than a stab at that. This is what I think about just about every day. I think it's a combination of a few things, David. To take one step back, younger voters today, I think, are unique than even the millennials in their late 20s and 30s. They don't have a living memory of September 11th, which means they don't remember September 12th and 13th. When regardless of what neighborhood or what county, red or blue that you lived in, you hung the flag and we felt connected. Generation C doesn't have that memory. They haven't seen America at our best, I would argue. Instead, they've grown up in a series, I think, of some of the most chaotic times, certainly in a century or so. But rather than fleeing, they've actually decided to use all of the tools in their toolbox to try to make significant change. And that is really what's fueled them. It's this combination of fear of the future, seeing the tangible difference that Donald Trump made during their important years as they were developing, and then also seeing the hopefulness from so many young activists, specifically the Parkland students and others that have created this environment.

You have a lot of hopefulness, but you also have fear working together. I think that drove a lot of the turnout so much, I think to me, of understanding who shows up in elections isn't just about the barriers to the ballot and the suppression, which is important, but the attitude that it matters. We can see the tangible difference, and my voice can make a difference. It's the combination of those two factors, and that, I think, is what was in place in the last two or three different election cycles.

We were talking about how you noticed this change this year going on, and you mentioned obviously what a perhaps make or break voting block this could be for Joe Biden in his re-election effort, if indeed young people have reliably been part of the Democratic coalition for the last many-years. Does the party identification piece of this, is that just not as strong for these voters as we find with partisan of different ages, and they are more malleable in terms of their party ID that they should not be considered any longer reliable Democrats, even though they may become more reliable voters, as you said, more feeling a sense of activism and wanting to change the way things are?

It's a really great question, David. I think they are malleable in terms of party identification. Listen, in the Harvard poll from the past spring, when I looked at these numbers relative to what we saw four years ago, for example, African-Americans are, I think, or 14 or 15 points less likely to identify as Democrats as four years ago. By the way, they're not Republicans or independents. Hispanic show a similar pattern. So that is the definition of being malleable on one hand. What is not malleable, and this is the most important thing, is their values and what they care about and what they're fighting for. In every one of those examples of younger people basically disassociating themselves with that party label, and there are a lot of reasons why they have become more progressive on every single issue. So what I think is that we're currently in this moment, like the greatest short term and long term opportunity for the Democratic Party is to square that circle, right? Is to speak to young voters and let them know that they are the only choice in terms of the current system where their values are reflected in political parties.

So that begs my next question, though. Is there not also, John, opportunity for Republicans to speak to these voters or no? They're not going to be open to Republicans because of the value system you're saying that is not malleable, that there's not real opportunity here for Republicans. It's more a mission for Democrats to, as you said, square the circle.

I don't believe, David, that the current version of the Maga Republican Party has much, if anything, in common with the values of this generation. In every generation, some generations values are narrow and tight, and you can see they span across different subgroups. Others are not. This is a particular generation who feels very strongly about the role of the federal government to solve challenges. That is antithetically to a small government conservative. They believe, of course, strongly in women having autonomy over their own bodies and protecting those more vulnerable and investing in climate. Those are things that I think align much more clearly with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party today. The other concern that we didn't really mention, I think, is it's not a two-way... It may not be a two-way race. It's the concern that I think all of us should have about young people exiting the two-party system and entertaining any version of conspiracy theories on the independent side, specifically, Bobby Kennedy, who's taking a lot of young people, and he's taking more Biden people than Trump people by about two to one margin.

Is that just specific in this cohort that he's taking more Biden people than Trump people?

In this cohort, absolutely more Biden than Trump. I can't speak to the same rigorous survey work among other cohorts.

Let me just ask about that point. Is it just Robert Kennedy Jr, 's independent bid that seems to have real stickiness and appeal, or do you see it with Cornell West and Jill Stein? Did that pop in any way with this cohort?

Bobby Kennedy is at a different level than all the other independent candidates, like three or four or five times the level of support, low double digits. The other candidates, as we know, it only takes a handful of votes in any one state to upend the election. We learned that lesson, obviously, in 2016, 2000, et cetera, et cetera.

It's such an important point. We're going to take a quick break. We have a lot more on this latest Harvard youth poll with pollster extraordinary John Delavoppe. We'll be right back.

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Welcome back. We're here with John De la Woppe, the Director of Polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics. John, before the break, we were talking about perhaps a limited opportunity for Republicans in the modern configuration of the Maga Republican Party of having real appeal to these young voters. That then makes it clear that the challenge for Biden is less one of persuasion, perhaps, than of motivation, of not becoming so turned off by it all that they drop out. In fact, your most recent survey found that there was a smaller share of these young voters who would say they definitely plan on voting. How does, if you were to tell the Biden campaign team, how are they to go about motivating this critical voting block?

It's a three-step process, and you have to do all three steps, by the way, David. You can't go step one, step three, extremely important. Step one is that the Biden campaign and anyone who cares about civic engagement and voting needs to do three things. The first of which is they need to communicate and to convince young people that 2020 mattered, that that record turn I talked about, that support for Biden mattered. We have a different country because of that. We have the first African-American woman on the Supreme Court. We have the largest investment in climate. We've got the most significant gun violence prevention legislation in not one but two generations. Most people don't know. We have $132 billion of student debt relieved. We need to, one, talk about the tangible difference that 2020 made one. The second thing is to talk about how government is and continue to solve some of the most significant challenges that are facing us, that government can do big things. You need to build some support for the system and participate in the system. Three is that President Biden, you may not agree with him on everything, but his values are largely aligned with the values of this generation.

That is pretty close to the playbook from the 2020 campaign. A key moment in that was when the Democrat primary was winding down around St. Patrick's Day, I think it was, Super Tuesday, when Biden said to the Bernie Sanders voters, I hear you. It hear you. Let me talk about how my values were aligned with your values. We may have a different approach on process, but our values were aligned. We need to see the same pattern today.

That being the case, does that argument, that third piece, my values aligned with yours, become harder for Joe Biden in light of the Israel-Hamas war?

Unquestionably, yes. Perhaps, David, there's not a full appreciation of the President's values. I believe that the President values the sanctity of civilian life, regardless of where it is. I think that this is important message to continue to communicate. The values may not be as misaligned as some young people think. But we can't skate over the fact, of course, that there is a significant generation gap in approval of the President in the handling of the Israel-Hamas.

War so far. How durable do you sense in your work that that divide is on this issue?

I think it's quite early. I think the President has made tremendous progress in trying to narrow that gap over the last several weeks with the release and the negotiation of those hostages. There's a long way to go, obviously, in that war, as well as there's a long way to go for next year. But again, this generation is different than other generations and other subgroups. They're not transactional. They're inspired by values. Student debt, it seems like a transaction to a lot of people. For younger people, it's a promise that was made in 2020, and it's a promise that they expect it to be kept. And the President has done every single thing I think he could do to keep that promise.

Do they perceive it? Do the young voters.

Perceive it that way? There's a significant gap in information in terms of what I believe on paper you can see as accomplishments versus what is perceived as accomplishment. So the answer is no. I don't know. I haven't pulled this question, but I bet very few young Americans would believe or know. They might believe it, but they don't know that, again, there's over $130 billion of student debt relief. Millions of younger people, given the fact that the White House had their hands tied behind the back from the Supreme Court. I guess that's what campaigns are for, is to share that information. The other thing that's interesting, I think about this cohort, this generation of younger people, is like the activists. There's an activist community that's cross-sectional. You have climate activists and student debt activists and racial justice activists, et cetera, working together in support of the greater cause. I think that was a big success, big reason for the success of a lot of candidates in the '22 midterms. I think it's going to be important that the White House and the campaign do the same in '24.

So you've mentioned some key issues: climate change, abortion rights, guns, the attempt to stem gun violence in the country, student debt. You just mentioned racial justice. One issue that I don't know if you've pulled on this or not, John, so tell me if you've had or had observed any work for this cohort on the issue of democracy, of the threat to democracy. It feels like such an academic term at times and not necessarily grounded in people's lives. Of course, the Biden campaign will make the case over the course of the next year that it is very much grounded in people's lives. But I'm wondering if young people in the aftermath of January sixth, and as you said, this cohort wasn't around for September 11th or 12th the 13th, but they did see something that none of us had seen before in our lives when the Capitol was attacked, does that democracy argument have resonance with this cohort? Or did you not ask about that?

We have asked about that over the years. We know that most young people tell us that they don't really have faith in the democracy, that it's shattered, it's broken, it's failing, et cetera. And a lot of young people question, they say, How can our democracy be working if literally just about every week we have another mass shooting, many times affecting young people. How can we say that it's working? What I think the way in which young people are thinking about this issue, David, is that they're concerned about this set of things that so many of us take for granted that they feel like are being taken away from them. And what they care most about is access to clean air and clean water, access to a quality education, access to health care, reproductive health care, mental health care, access to education that doesn't put you in debt for half of your life, access to a house or housing if you work hard for it. Those are the components that I think that younger people are really motivated from. Those, I think, are tied to the promise of our democracy and what their really focused on is which party and which leader can begin to restore, repair, and to expand those basic human rights to as many people as possible.

Another big area of concern for Democrats in the diminishment of support currently in different pieces of the Biden coalition are among voters of color. I want to look at that specifically with you in this cohort of young voters. Do you find a difference in young white voters versus young Hispanic or young black voters and how they are thinking about either support for the President or desire to participate?

We started the conversation earlier, noting that there are fewer young people who say they're are likely to vote next year than 2020. It's a significant eight or nine-point drop. And a lot of that is coming from not from Democrats. Democrats seem just about as likely to participate this cycle as last cycle. That's good news for the White House. The drop is coming from Republicans, but also from independents. And a lot of that independent drop is coming from those people that you mentioned: young African-American men and women, younger Hispanic, Latino men and women. So we clearly see that part of the of the binding coalition, even within the youth cohort, questioning the topics I mentioned earlier, questioning the impact that 2020 made. Routinely, when I'm doing a focus group, David, a young person, a young woman of color will say to multiple occasions, You tell me to vote, I vote every year and every year feels like I'm losing my rights. That's typical for what I hear from a lot of young people. And then I might remind them of the expansion of health care for younger people from affordable care act a generation ago, et cetera.

They're just not tuned in in thinking about these issues the way that you and I and your listeners are thinking. And the reason why? It stresses them out. We know we have a mental health crisis and epidemic in this country, specifically with younger people. Half of younger people in this and every survey I've conducted over the last many years indicate that several days or the last few weeks, they've had feelings of hopelessness, depression, and anxiety. Much of that, through this and other data, is driven by the divisiveness in our politics. One way that people can try to make their life a little bit happier, honestly, is not watch the news so much, right? Because it's negative and it stresses them out. There's this big information gap, which is important for the campaign, I think, to figure out.

Well, I certainly don't endorse not.

Watching the news.

Neither do I. It should be on the record with that. John, my final question for you is my summation here to understand. Do you think it is fair, if I summarize everything you've just brought to us and all your expertise in this area, is it fair to say that all this angst on the Democratic side about the youth vote is more about tuning out and disengaging altogether rather than going and voting for Donald Trump against Joe Biden?

I think that's exactly... That's one of the best summaries of the most recent fall youth poll that I've heard. This is a challenge not around values. It's around communicating the success that younger people had in changing the direction of this country. It's unquestionably in a better, more stable place today than it would have been if Trump was reelected. And it's really about motivating people to stay within this system, David.

John, thanks so much for your time. Really appreciate it. Thank you. That's it for this week's edition of the CNN political briefing. We want to hear from you. Is there a question you'd like answered about this election cycle? Is there a guest you really want to hear from? Give us a call at 301-842-8338, or send us an email at cnnpoliticalbriefing@gmail. Com. You might just be featured on a future episode of the podcast. Don't forget to tell us your name, where you're from, how we can reach you, and if you give us permission to use the recording on the podcast. Cnn Political Briefing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Madeline Thompson and Grace Walker. Our senior producer is Haley Thomas. Dan de Zula is our technical director, and Steve Licktye is executive producer of CNN Audio. Support from Alex Manassary, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Laney Steinhardt, James Andrust, Nicole Pessarou, and Lisa Namarow. And special thanks to Katie Hinnman. We're going to be taking the next two weeks off for the holidays, so we'll be back with a new episode on Friday, January fifth. In the meantime, you can keep up with the latest political news by going to CNN.

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