As the war against Hamas and Gaza rages on, leaving tens of thousands of dead Palestinian men, women, and children in its wake, there have been two major questions percolating outside the enclave. One, will Israel and Hamas be able to come to an agreement that would put an end to the fighting and free the 100 plus hostages, including the 39 who Israel has confirmed dead? Two, will conflict conflict between Israel and Iran-backed militant groups like Hezbollah tipped the region into all-out war? The answer to the first question since last November has been maybe, eventually. The answer to the second has been not likely. But a number of huge developments over the past 48 hours could upend all of that.

Breaking news, a major escalation in the Middle East, as Hamas and Iranian state media say the political a leader of Hamas was killed in Tehran. So far, there's no comment from the Israeli military, warranted such a strike. Some will also argue that Israel has had its patience worn thin by nine months of confrontation on the border between Lebanon and Israel. And there is growing pressure inside Israel for a severe and meaningful degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities. In other words, in Israel's eyes, Hezbollah has become too strong. It is too big of a threat, and there is a very strong security security argument for its degradation for a campaign that may meaningfully degrade this very powerful Iran-backed group.But I guess the question is, how do you do that without going into all-out war where tons and tons of civilians are impacted?Well, exactly. Because the thing to know about Hezbollah is that Hezbollah is not Hamas. Hezbollah has a far larger arsenal than Hamas does. It has precision guided missiles. It has bombs with payloads of up to 500 kilograms. It also enjoys the benefits of having a very wide regional network. And so therefore, a fight against Hezbollah is potentially not just a fight that embrouilles Lebanon and Israel, but one that ropes in several actors in the region. So in a way, while there is a lot of pressure inside Israel to deal with Hezbollah, there is a difference between what one wishes to do, what they might want to do, what they feel that they should do, and what they can do without facing unforeseen consequences. Now, as we woke up on Wednesday morning, that possibility of a regional war, I would say, went up about tenfold.Now we have this new chapter, this new step of directly targeting a key Hamas figure inside of Iran itself. Hanej, might be an understatement, cannot overstate the significance of this event.Jeremy Dimon-We woke up to the news that Hamas's political leader, Ismail Hanej, was assassinated in Iran's capital, Tehran.What do we know about the death of this Hamas leader inside Iran?We know that he was killed in a, quote, airborne projectile that hit his residence, as they called it, the place in which he was staying in Tehran as he was visiting Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran's new President, Pasashkian. We know that Iran and Hamas Hamas have blamed Israel for the assassination, and Israel has so far declined to comment on the assassination. This guy is a big deal because not only is he, or was he, the political leader of Hamas, he was also the face of months and months of ceasefire and hostage release negotiations. Now, what does this mean for those negotiations? What does this mean for people in Gaza who have been suffering for months and months and months under intense bombardment in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe as a result of this war? What does this mean for the families of the hostages who have been desperately hoping for a deal that might lead to the release of over 100 hostages who remain there. I mean, this cannot be a good day for anyone who who has borne the brunt of this war and who desperately wants a ceasefire and hostage release deal to happen.Yeah. And Israel, they haven't commented on it, but other players in the region are pointing the finger at them. But why would Israel want to kill one of the main negotiators if they really do want a deal done to free the hostages like Netanyahu claims he is actually working toward?That, I think, is the question that everyone is asking today. There are some who will that this is proof positive that Netanyahu doesn't actually want to clinish a ceasefire deal, that he doesn't want to arrive at a diplomatic solution that could at least temporarily end this war. There are others. There is a theory that is going around that Netanyahu needs a victory to put in his back pocket.It's like they haven't fully wiped out Hamas in Gaza in their military capabilities, but they could say, Hey, look, Look, this guy who is a big figurehead for the group, he's off the board, and we can go forward with a deal now.Yes, that is what the theory that's going around says. Now, bear in mind, Ismail Hanei has not stepped foot in Gaza for the entirety of this war. He is a political leader in exile. He has no bearing or very little bearing on the ground in Gaza, particularly as it pertains to the military situation in Gaza. Now, what we've seen on the ground in Gaza, in fact, is a resurgence of Hamas in areas that were not just cleared by Israeli forces, but really bombarded to the ground. It's not a good look for Netanyahu. is Iran feels that it is in a corner and feel strongly that it must lash out in order to assert its hard power again.Well, we'll see what happens from here. Tomorrow, thank you.Yeah, no worries. Thanks for having me, David.One Thing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Reind. Our senior producer is Fez Jamil. Our supervising producer is Greg Peppers. Matt Dempsey is our production manager. Dan Dizula is our technical director, and Steve Ligtai is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Haley Thomas, Alex Manessari, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Lanie Steinhart, Jamis André, Nicole Pessereau, and Lisa Namarau. Special thanks to nick Thompson, Wendy Brundage, and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Sunday with our regular episode. I'll talk to you then.

warranted such a strike. Some will also argue that Israel has had its patience worn thin by nine months of confrontation on the border between Lebanon and Israel. And there is growing pressure inside Israel for a severe and meaningful degradation of Hezbollah's capabilities. In other words, in Israel's eyes, Hezbollah has become too strong. It is too big of a threat, and there is a very strong security security argument for its degradation for a campaign that may meaningfully degrade this very powerful Iran-backed group.

But I guess the question is, how do you do that without going into all-out war where tons and tons of civilians are impacted?

Well, exactly. Because the thing to know about Hezbollah is that Hezbollah is not Hamas. Hezbollah has a far larger arsenal than Hamas does. It has precision guided missiles. It has bombs with payloads of up to 500 kilograms. It also enjoys the benefits of having a very wide regional network. And so therefore, a fight against Hezbollah is potentially not just a fight that embrouilles Lebanon and Israel, but one that ropes in several actors in the region. So in a way, while there is a lot of pressure inside Israel to deal with Hezbollah, there is a difference between what one wishes to do, what they might want to do, what they feel that they should do, and what they can do without facing unforeseen consequences. Now, as we woke up on Wednesday morning, that possibility of a regional war, I would say, went up about tenfold.

Now we have this new chapter, this new step of directly targeting a key Hamas figure inside of Iran itself. Hanej, might be an understatement, cannot overstate the significance of this event.

Jeremy Dimon-We woke up to the news that Hamas's political leader, Ismail Hanej, was assassinated in Iran's capital, Tehran.

What do we know about the death of this Hamas leader inside Iran?

We know that he was killed in a, quote, airborne projectile that hit his residence, as they called it, the place in which he was staying in Tehran as he was visiting Tehran to attend the inauguration of Iran's new President, Pasashkian. We know that Iran and Hamas Hamas have blamed Israel for the assassination, and Israel has so far declined to comment on the assassination. This guy is a big deal because not only is he, or was he, the political leader of Hamas, he was also the face of months and months of ceasefire and hostage release negotiations. Now, what does this mean for those negotiations? What does this mean for people in Gaza who have been suffering for months and months and months under intense bombardment in the midst of a humanitarian catastrophe as a result of this war? What does this mean for the families of the hostages who have been desperately hoping for a deal that might lead to the release of over 100 hostages who remain there. I mean, this cannot be a good day for anyone who who has borne the brunt of this war and who desperately wants a ceasefire and hostage release deal to happen.

Yeah. And Israel, they haven't commented on it, but other players in the region are pointing the finger at them. But why would Israel want to kill one of the main negotiators if they really do want a deal done to free the hostages like Netanyahu claims he is actually working toward?

That, I think, is the question that everyone is asking today. There are some who will that this is proof positive that Netanyahu doesn't actually want to clinish a ceasefire deal, that he doesn't want to arrive at a diplomatic solution that could at least temporarily end this war. There are others. There is a theory that is going around that Netanyahu needs a victory to put in his back pocket.

It's like they haven't fully wiped out Hamas in Gaza in their military capabilities, but they could say, Hey, look, Look, this guy who is a big figurehead for the group, he's off the board, and we can go forward with a deal now.

Yes, that is what the theory that's going around says. Now, bear in mind, Ismail Hanei has not stepped foot in Gaza for the entirety of this war. He is a political leader in exile. He has no bearing or very little bearing on the ground in Gaza, particularly as it pertains to the military situation in Gaza. Now, what we've seen on the ground in Gaza, in fact, is a resurgence of Hamas in areas that were not just cleared by Israeli forces, but really bombarded to the ground. It's not a good look for Netanyahu. is Iran feels that it is in a corner and feel strongly that it must lash out in order to assert its hard power again.Well, we'll see what happens from here. Tomorrow, thank you.Yeah, no worries. Thanks for having me, David.One Thing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Reind. Our senior producer is Fez Jamil. Our supervising producer is Greg Peppers. Matt Dempsey is our production manager. Dan Dizula is our technical director, and Steve Ligtai is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Haley Thomas, Alex Manessari, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Lanie Steinhart, Jamis André, Nicole Pessereau, and Lisa Namarau. Special thanks to nick Thompson, Wendy Brundage, and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Sunday with our regular episode. I'll talk to you then.

is Iran feels that it is in a corner and feel strongly that it must lash out in order to assert its hard power again.

Well, we'll see what happens from here. Tomorrow, thank you.

Yeah, no worries. Thanks for having me, David.

One Thing is a production of CNN Audio. This episode was produced by Paola Ortiz and me, David Reind. Our senior producer is Fez Jamil. Our supervising producer is Greg Peppers. Matt Dempsey is our production manager. Dan Dizula is our technical director, and Steve Ligtai is the executive producer of CNN Audio. We get support from Haley Thomas, Alex Manessari, Robert Mathers, John Dianora, Lanie Steinhart, Jamis André, Nicole Pessereau, and Lisa Namarau. Special thanks to nick Thompson, Wendy Brundage, and Katie Hinman. We'll be back on Sunday with our regular episode. I'll talk to you then.