Out front now, Larry Sabato, the founder and director of the University of Virginia center for Politics. And he's also, of course, the man behind the very closely watched political ratings report, Sabato's crystal ball, which predicts the likely outcomes of races across the country. So, Larry, you just downgraded two key states for Biden. Michigan, now a toss up. You had previously said it leaned democratic. And Minnesota also slipping here from a likely victory for President Biden to just leaning blue.

Why?

Well, certainly the debate played a role, although I need to stress, as others have, that President Biden had already slipped behind before the debate. He was behind President Trump before he got on that stage. And it's only gotten worse since. It's pretty stunning to see the CNN poll and a couple of other polls today showing that Trump has a six point lead over Joe Biden. And it's eight points if you consider the entire pool of registered voters. Joe, I tell you what shocked a lot of Democrats and democratic donors and others. It's the fact that Donald Trump, for the first time ever, is on the edge of 50%. He's right there. We thought for years that his high water mark was 46%, which is essentially what he got in 2016 and 2020. This is serious business, and it has gotten worse. And I think people also are taking it more seriously because of the Supreme Court decision about presidential immunity. Character in the Oval Office really matters.

To that point, given that Michigan is a must win for Joe Biden. And adding in what you had seen prior to the debate, do you think there is any chance that he could turn it blue again on your map before November?

Oh, sure. Politics is a crazy business, and you never know what's going to happen in the next hour, much less next week or next month. And even though it seems like the election is close, Eric, it really isn't. There's so many things that are going to happen, including the two party conventions. So there's time. There's not a lot of extra time. This is not something to dawdle about. I think President Biden has to make a firm decision and other Democrats will have to help him make that firm decision.

What about, and as you point out, importantly, there is a lot of time, but there are a lot of questions about what could happen if the vice president moves to the top of the ticket. Do things change if Kamala Harris becomes a democratic nominee?

Yes, it's very interesting. The focus has been on Biden, and the republican attacks have been almost exclusively on Biden. It's actually significant that they have released an ad about Kamala Harris. You see, they've let her go for a while, and others have, too, because a vice president tends to disappear a bit or move to the back of the stage. And so her ratings are a bit better. And sure enough, she's coming closer to Trump than Biden is.

You know, two weeks ago on this show, you said you were already hearing from worried democratic officials. They were asking before the debate what would happen if President Biden was not the party's nominee. I'm curious, what are those public officials saying to you now?

The ones I've spoken to are convinced, with only one exception, that President Biden has to step down. They don't agree about who should succeed and how to do it and whether there should be an open convention. The more they think about it, the more I think they'll realize that Harris has access to the money and the legal justification for using it and other things as a part of the ticket. It would probably be easier and smoother if she simply ascended to the nomination, assuming President Biden will move along. And who knows?

One democratic lawmaker is making a dramatic assessment that President Biden's candidacy is, quote, over and that members of the president's party are waiting for him to reach the same conclusion. Another member of Congress joins us now, Congressman Jamie Raskin, Democrat of Maryland. We should note that this democratic lawmaker is unnamed. There are two that have come out so far and said President Biden should step aside. But this democratic lawmaker just says flatly it's over for President Biden. Is that representative of where Democrats in the House are right now?

Well, I don't know. I haven't taken any sort of formal poll on it. I mean, let's start with this. President Biden won the nomination overwhelmingly in the states, and he got, you know, more than 95% of the delegates. So he right now is the presumptive nominee of our party. The debate obviously shook a lot of people up, and the president has recognized that. It shook you up, a problem, and it shook me up. It shook up anybody who is a supporter and a friend of Joe Biden and understand that people, I think, are reacting first out of a sense of compassion and love for Joe Biden, the way that he reacts towards us. When I got sick last year with lymphoma, President Biden was one of the first people to call me up, to cheer me up and to say that he was with me. And so we want the best for him. We want the best for the country, and we want the best for our party. And we're dealing in the situation of a constitutional crisis where the Supreme Court has just handed down this decision that moves us much closer to a constitutional monarchy than a constitutional democracy.

And Donald Trump and his forces continue to attack the basic pillars of our democratic institutions all across the country. So right now, President Biden is obviously hearing from a lot of people. Hes about to meet with the governors. Hes heard from members of Congress, as youve said, on all sides of the issue. And he obviously has a very heavy decision to make. He won the delegates. And so he's in a situation where he gets to make that decision. But I do think that we don't have a lot of time for him to make that decision. And we wish him godspeed in his deliberations. Meantime, we are up against the forces of true monarchy and authoritarianism.

Let me stop you there, because I do hear that from a lot of Democrats. Look at the stakes, you know, with Donald Trump, in their view, taking over the White House. You clearly are very concerned in line of the Supreme Court appearance.

And it's not just Trump, the Supreme.

Court itself, but then the Supreme Court itself. Okay, so let's just, let's just stop there. Then. Then do you believe, given the stakes, in your view, that President Biden will win in November, as he says? Do you believe him? Do you believe that will happen if he stays as the nominee?

I believe, look, I've been up presumptive 21 states. I'm campaigning all over the country. I believe that the Democrats understand the stakes in this election. I think most independents understand it. Donald Trump packed and stacked and gerrymandered the Supreme Court deliberately and explicitly to overthrow Roe versus Wade and to steal the freedom that women have over their own lives and over their own families. That same Supreme Court has now gerrymandered things with respect to Donald Trump's trials, that he basically has gotten a get out of jail free card.

So then do you believe that Biden will beat Trump in November in light of the debate, do you believe, as you said?

Well, I think regardless of who our candidate is, whether it's President Biden or its vice president Harris or whoever it may be, we are in the fight of our lives. And I don't take anything for granted. So, no, I would not say that we are definitely going to win, but I would say we've got a very strong shot of winning. And we need to, obviously.

And did that calculation change a little bit post debate?

Well, yeah, the debate has set people back for a week. I mean, it's, you know, it would be ridiculous not to acknowledge that. We've got to get the focus back on what the real issue is and what the real stakes are. We've got an enormously successful democratic presidency with Joe Biden and with Kamala Harris, where we've done more than a trillion dollar investment in the infrastructure, in the roads and the highways and the bridges. We dramatically lowered prescription drug prices in the Medicare program. I had constituents paying $500 a month for their insulin shots.

It's down to, I think, for Democrats, it's not about what he's done in his record of the past. It's looking ahead to the four years. Right? It's looking ahead, can he beat Trump in November? Can he serve another four years? Are you aware of any efforts or have been part of any conversations deliberating with your colleagues in the House to ask the president, step aside or how you should handle this? Can you just help the viewers at home understand these conversations that are happening?

Well, look, the conversations that are happening in the Democratic Party are the same conversations that we're seeing people have on tv and have, you know, in restaurants and across the country. There's an enormous constellation of factors. There is the undeniable, tremendous success of the Biden administration in advancing so many of the things that America needs, including action on climate change and the environment, defense of women's rights, defense of the LGBTQ community. All of that is very much part of it. At the same time that we've got to deal with the particular dynamics of the debate and the dynamics of confronting a foe like Donald Trump, whos willing to lie about everything. And so, you know, we have a nominee for a reason. We trust Joe Biden and were going to trust him to make the right decision about the crossroads that were at right now with the input of everybody who wants to speak either publicly or privately about what they think we need to do. But I want to put it in the context of where America is going, because all over the world, the pro democracy, pro freedom forces are looking to President Biden, the Democratic Party, to move us forward.

Meantime, you've got Vladimir Putin and Xi, and you've got Victor Orban and Marcos. All of the dictators and the thugs and the strongmen are rooting for Donald Trump, as they always have, to undermine our democratic institutions. So this is where we are. Those are the enormously serious stakes of this election and the tough moment that we're in.

All right, Congressman Jamie Raskin, thank you for your time coming on. We appreciate it. I know, it's a holiday week. One democratic lawmaker just telling CNN, quote, it's over. We're just waiting for the announcement. Do you agree that it is, in fact, over and it's time for the president to step aside?

No, but I do believe the White House has a shrinking window in which to turn this around, if it can be turned around. And they've got to do two things and do it very quickly. One is they've got to massively improve their outreach to stakeholders, donors, governors, elected officials, members of Congress, delegates to the convention. Theyve got to really reach out at senior levels of the White House, not campaign talking points, and have a two way dialog. Right. A dialog is two way communication, not one way communication. And they need to do that quickly and broadly. And secondly, theyve got to get Joe Biden out to basically prove hes got it. That was a really bad night, but it doesnt characterize him or his behavior or his ability to carry on. And that means really getting out in public and exposing yourself in very substantial ways. And he's got the NATO summit next week. There'll be opportunities for interaction with the public and with leaders of other countries and with the media. He's planning a press conference. That's good. But he's got to really step up that game and disprove what is setting in, which is the perception that he no longer has it.

But, sir, sir, to that point, right on the second point, that he needs to be out there. We are six days now past this debate. It is surprising to many people. I have certainly been told this by a number of folks that there has not been more of an effort to put the president out. And the message that that sends, if he's not being put out, what is the reason? Is it because there's concern that he can't handle those moments? Is that the message that is being sent.

Perhaps with the best of intentions? I don't know. I believe that senior White House officials are unwittingly contributing exactly as you suggest to the perception that he's not out there because he can't be. I don't, I hope that's not true. And I want to sort of take a pause here. I think Democrats should make decisions not in haste and panic, but with calm calculus and with lots of input from the White House and lots of reflection. We need that kind of family dialog. We need that family therapy, but we need it quickly because time is running out. We don't have a lot of time here to make some really critical decisions. And ultimately that decision rests with the president, who has 3900 pledged delegates to the national convention.

You talk about the need for a conversation. You also noted in your first answer, the one way dialog. We're hearing a lot of one way dialog from people who are saying, okay, it's time for the president to step aside. One of the most recent, Reed Hastings, co founder of Netflix, one of the biggest donors to the democratic party. Just telling the New York Times tonight, Biden needs to step aside and he is not the first big donor to sound the alarm. I wonder, the polling, not great, perhaps, but when it comes to money, that's another thing. Can the campaign continue to ignore these very public pleas, especially from their donors?

Everybodys opinion has to be factored in. Let me just say, this is a consequential president. He passed more legislation than any president since Lyndon Johnson. He took us out of the pandemic. He tried to right the ship of state after the disaster of Donald Trump. He deserves respect and dignity and not drive by shootings calling for him to step aside. I don't think that's the way to treat Joe Biden. And I know for sure, knowing the man, it's not the way to get him to reflect the way you want him to reflect on what happened last.

Week to that point. Then there have been more public calls, as I noted, two now House Democrats have called publicly for the president to step aside. What are the conversations privately about how best to address this, to have that family conversation that you mentioned?

Well, as you might imagine, I think there are pockets of conversation all over the place. I do think that there is a real danger if the White House doesn't step up its game in communication with the House of Representatives. There are lots of people who are processing what happened. But if they're left to their own without any real serious input from senior members of the White House, they're going to make a decision based on what they think they know, what they've been given, what they perceive, and what they think is in the best interest of their constituency in their own future.

Congressman Jerry Connolly of Virginia, really appreciate you taking the time to join us tonight, sir. Thank you.

My pleasure, erica. Thank you.

Out front now, former democratic congressman Max Rose of New York and David Urban, former senior advisor to the Trump campaign. Good to have you both here. Congressman, I know you've had concerns about President Biden. Where do you stand tonight? Do you believe it's time for the president to step aside if the president is in serious, irreversible cognitive decline? Absolutely. If he is not, I think he still stands as the best person to beat Donald Trump. Now, it is the responsibility of the White House as well as the president's campaign to very obviously and clearly and forcefully show the american people that the president is not, in fact, in the cognitive decline. Unfortunately, what I feel like they are not understanding the president's staff or his campaign is that every day that they don't do something clearly obvious and repeat it over and over and over again. It looks like they're lying or hiding something. And that's what really has to change and what will happen next week. And I think Congressman Connally pointed to this, is you're gonna see some serious activity from the House, most especially the frontliners, who are those sitting Democrats in very difficult seats.

There's potential for a letter to come out. There's potential for more individuals to stand up, and they don't care about anything, rightfully so, other than keeping their seat. And right now, the facts and the stats could point to them having to do something like that, unless the president's campaign markedly shifts, which in many ways goes back to our own MJ Lee's reporting that these next few days really are consequential for the president. David, you don't think Joe Biden is going anywhere? Why?

Listen, I don't to this point, Erica, listen, you know, Congressman Rose has it exactly right. The Democrats in the front line, those frontline House races are going to be the people that, and Reed Hastings and the donors are going to, people who turn up the pressure. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania, who's facing a very tough race against Dave McCormack. Those are, the people are going to squeal. But right now, it appears that Joe Biden is surrounded by a praetorian guard of his family. His wife, who's on the COVID of Vogue magazine with a let them eat cake moment, appears not to be concerned about her husband's well being, or the country's well being, for that matter, and letting the president continue on in this state. Erica, there's been exhaustive reporting now all of a sudden just popped up for the New York Times and other places that the president, the people have had concerns about the president for quite some time. Listen, when the president turned down a softball interview for the Super bowl, right? Everybody does that. It's a softball in front of a huge crowd. People were questioning even that. Well, maybe he's not up to it.

Right? Maybe he's not up to it. So as long as his family's taking advice from Hunter and Jill Biden, I, Joe Biden's not going anywhere. And interestingly, if the Democrats, if Congressman rose and others think that Donald Trump is an existential threat to democracy, they're not going to just wait for Joe Biden to make a decision about whether he's going to stay. They're going to go to the White House. They're going to pound on the door. They're going to say, get in the car. We're done with you. You can't have it both ways. If you believe Donald Trump is the end of the world, then you want your best candidate forward. You can't say, well, we don't want to. You know, Joe Biden's a nice guy and he's done some good things, and we might let him ride off into the sunset. You go there, you say, pack your bags and you're gone. You either want to win or you don't want to win.

In addition to all the other grim headlines the Biden campaign is facing, there is now this one just out in the New York Times. Netflix co founder becomes one of the biggest democratic donors to call for Biden to step aside. That would be Reed Hastings telling the Times, quote, Biden needs to step aside to allow a vigorous democratic leader to beat Trump and keep us safe and prosperous. The campaign, by the way, took in $127 million last month. CNN senior data reporter Harry Entin joins us now with more on the money front, namely who that money belongs to, if not the president. So if the president were to decide, by the way, this is a major if, of course, to leave the race, who exactly would have access to his cash? And would that be only one candidate, or could it be others? Yeah. If there is one candidate who isn't Joe Biden, who would have access to that cash? It would be the vice president of the United States. Those FCC forms with her, with him. She, according to law, she has access to it. Any other candidate, if the Democrats decide to nominate any other candidate, they could not access that cash, those tens of millions of dollars.

I think cash on hand last night, under no circumstances or could Harris say, I'm opening this up, she herself can have it, but no, it cannot go to the other candidates. It cannot go to them. Okay. So would Biden have any input onto how that money is spent if he were to say, let me write a proviso here? Right?

Yeah.

So Biden himself could form a PaC, right? And he could decide, you know what, I'm going to do an independent expenditure, and I can spend it. But here's the deal. It is written in the law that candidates have better money. Their money goes further on television advertisements. They get a discount if they're candidates. A PAC does not get those discounts. So his money wouldn't necessarily go as far more than that. He can't really coordinate with the campaign if, let's say it's not Harris, and let's say he decides to form this pact, he can't coordinate with him. Communication. Exactly right. It would be very, very difficult for them to understand. Okay, this is where I necessarily want that money to be spent because our campaign finance laws are so rigorous. Of course. What other options are there then for the war chest? Yeah. Another thing that he could do is he could give it over to the Democratic National Committee and they could try and spend it, but they would run into very similar issues that he would run into if he himself formed his own pact. One other option is he could refund the money and then potentially go out there and ask the donors, hey, you should donate to this new person.

But there's no guarantee that that would necessarily happen. I think the bottom line here, Jim, is really simple. If Harris is the presidential nominee, it's very easy to get the money to her. If it's not her, then it's a whole big ball of a mess. All right, Harry, Anton, thanks so much. Thank you. So let's go back to the panel. Now, let me ask you, Ashley, the governor said it's got to be Harris. In effect, you, of course, worked for the vice president. Do you agree? Does it have to be Harris? Are there no circumstances where the party could say, well, you know, this is a team effort here. We got to open it up and see who's the best candidate?

Well, Jim, I hate to disappoint. I don't know the inner workings of the party that much, but I've been told by the campaign that that is the case, that the money would be transferred to Harris. But here's the reality is, you know, big donor money, it matters, you know, because it does signal to other big donors, you know, where they should put, should they continue to invest in the campaign. But what matters most, it's not the end all, be all. But what matters most is what we just saw at the end of the, this past weekend after the debate, which is that the president raised $33 million, and that was from small donors, everyday Americans writing checks. And there's one thing I know, having worked on four presidential campaigns, is you don't write a check to a campaign that you think is actually failing. So the fact that they've raised the most money that they ever had have among grassroots, everyday Americans over the past week is impressive. And that says a lot. And that says that the american people have some level of confidence in this president and in this campaign. So we're in, you know, Reid stepping down.

What matters most and is a bigger indication of momentum and strength is these small dollar donors, and they're there for the president.

Fair point. I mean, as big donors go, I mean, I've seen big donors change their minds certainly when it comes to, say, Donald Trump on the republican side. Van Jones, if what you're saying is true, and by the way, it's CNN's reporting as well, that inside the party there is far more panic than is leaking out into public commentary there. What is your view of opening it up as opposed to the president saying I'm stepping down if he does? By the way, that's a big if. I'm stepping down. And it's got to be Harris, is there actually another realistic option to consider more candidates?

Well, I mean, there is. And Clyburn has suggested that perhaps there should be what he's calling a mini primary where at least among the delegates, there would be an opportunity for people to raise their hand. But I do think that all things being equal, it's hard to imagine leapfrog and Kamala Harris if everybody basically has the same basic shot at Trump, then you should go with your vice president. Now, if it turns out that she's seven points down, there's somebody else who's clearly a favorite, then you have that conversation. But I mean, to say one more thing, which is that it's exactly correct. There is a rallying to Biden happening. You can see it in two places. You can see in the fundraising with the small dollar donors, and you can really see it online today, the Biden Harris hashtag was outperforming 4 July Independence Day. So there is a rallying similar to when Donald Trump got in trouble. There was a rallying to him. The problem is, even though you have that as one current, the bigger current is a current of fear. This campaign is like a paper bag that somebody put on a wet counter.

That wet counter is the debate performance. If you pick up that paper bag, it's going to fall out. And so what's happening is, yes, there is a countercurrent of people who are rallying to him, but there's a lot more people who are beginning to fall away. That's what's happening.

Yeah, I like that image, that metaphor. Adam Kinzinger, when Trump was convicted, there was a bit of a drop in his polling numbers. But, of course, you did not see republican lawmakers, newspapers, et cetera, calling for him to withdraw. Is the panic threshold different for Democrats than Republicans?

Yeah, because the Democrats aren't a cult yet. I mean, look, if you look back eight years and basically up until the last couple of years, there have always been people speaking out against Donald Trump. And actually, to be honest with you, I don't think it's unhealthy for the Democrats to have this conversation. We're still a few months away. But what's happened is all opposition, all free thought, all independent thinking has been quashed in the Republican Party. So don't take, and I see this online, too, with some of the chatter, people saying, well, the Republicans have so much more discipline than the Democrats. No, that's not true. The Republicans are officially a cult with a platform that is simply, we support Donald Trump. And no, issues don't become like them because trust me, it doesn't work out for this country or for the party in the long run.

And listen, for comparison. You have democratic lawmakers coming out to say the president should step down. We need a stronger candidate. You don't have, as you had with Trump or have with Trump, people who served President Trump who say he's a danger to the nation, right, which is a John Bolton or a Mark Esper or yourself. You didn't serve his administration, but you're a Republican who served at the time. So we should be clear. You know, those are apples and oranges in terms of comparison there. Governor, when you look at this race, would you say the next few days are critical? Because even from inside the Biden White House, there was some CNN reporting saying that, you know, he's watching the numbers, right? That he and his team are looking for a plummeting of polls and that if the polls were to plummet, which they haven't yet, they've come down, but they haven't plummeted, that he might reconsider. Would you say the next few days are going to make the decision for him?

Well, my prediction after I saw the bad debate was that this is going to go away in ten days. So I'd say the next few days are critical because ten days aren't up yet. And the attention of the media and the attention of the american people is about ten days long. Every time something like this blows up and the next thing we'll be talking about Putin doing something awful or the elections in the UK which will send labor back to the government. And maybe we'll switch the subjects because right now we've got a guy who's 81 years old who made some mistakes in a debate. So what? He's got four years of really incredible service, especially, I truly believe, and I teach this, I teach foreign policy. I believe that Biden has the best domestic foreign policy record, I mean, domestic policy record of any president since Lyndon Johnson. Now, that's pretty extraordinary. And once people start focusing on that again, I think some of this is going to go away. But I could be wrong. I've been wrong before. I just don't remember when.

To your point, I did say to my team after the Trump felony conviction that within a few days we'll be talking about something else. And, you know, and we were, and we were. And it happens, Ashley, you've been involved inside the room, as it were. You're the room where it happened. What do you believe is going on behind the scenes in the Biden camp tonight?

Well, I think they're trying to fortify, you know, I think they're rallying around the president. They're obviously meeting with surrogates, talking to governors, talking to elected officials there. As I said earlier, they're trying to stop the bleeding. But I think what they really need to do is to get on positive footing. I mean, to the governor's point, the president has an incredible story. If you look at the numbers and the metrics that matter in the campaign right now, from the infrastructure he's building on the ground to the fundraising, he's in a strong position. They've got to stop, you know, to use the congressman's phrase, you know, we've got to stop bedwetting. As Democrats, you know, we're prone to doing that. We've got to get fortified and get focused and be very clear about not just what's at stake, but why Joe Biden is the best, the best candidate to bring this, to continue us down this path of progress.

Van, you're hearing from inside the White House that there are many, just quickly, who don't think this is just bedwetting. They think it's a real reason to reconsider.

I'm wearing pampers, huggies and depends. You can call me a bedwetter all you want to. I'm concerned. I'm scared that the whole enchilada is on the table for american democracy and the Democratic Party has to put forward the best person. Let me just say one thing about Joe Biden. Every single person that mentions his name says they love him. They don't say they respect him. They do. They don't say they admire him. They do. They say they love Joe Biden. We're not talking about somebody that we don't love and admire. We just want to get across this finish line. And if it's the right thing to do, I know he will let us do it with somebody else.