Who is the bigger threat to Donald Trump to the degree that there is one, DeSantis or Haley?

Haley. Desantis has had a very rough 2023. He came into this race as the presumed strongest challenger to Donald Trump, and yet his numbers have really only ticked downwards. And whether it's inside baseball, operational failures, his Superpac, et cetera, he just has not proven that he has the strategy to take on Trump. Now, Haley has a very big uphill climb ahead of her. But right now there is at least a path. If you squint your eyes, you can see a way she might pull this off.

It's very hard to see what's happening. I want to dig down on that. Trump's campaign projects that he will formally clinch the Republican nomination by the primaries on March 19th, which include Florida. But take a look at this. If there's a crack in his run to the nomination, the first sign of it could be in New Hampshire, where Nickerbie Haley has jumped up to 29 % closer, but still 15 points behind Trump. Katherine, if Haley were to win or finish a close second in New Hampshire and then go on to win her home state of South Carolina in February, as the dumb and dumber joke goes, is there a chance?

So you're saying there's a chance? Yes. I think there could be a tiny, tiny, tiny chance. I mean, she definitely presents a more credible alternative to Trump in a way that I don't think DeSantis does. For example, DeSantis I think of as a Trump-like type figure. Nikki Haley, although obviously had served in the Trump administration, does feel like she could present a more competitive alternative platform, both because she is viewed as more moderate and because there are a lot of suburban moms out there who maybe see... Suburban independent moms out there who see her asas a more competitive alternative to Biden, in fact.

Of course, there's another factor in all this, and that is the fact that Donald Trump faces four criminal indictments on 91 felony counts. But so far that only seems to have boosted him, not to have hurt him. But take a look at this poll in the New York Times this week, which found that 24 % of Trump supporters say he should not be the nominee if he's convicted of a crime. Jane, if these cases get to trial and a bigger ref, if Donald Trump is convicted of any of these, what do you think the impact would be on his standing if it were to happen during the primaries to get the Republican nomination, where for where it happened later in the general election in the fall?

I think it would be catastrophic. I think that we keep doing this thing where we pretend that anything bad for anyone else is actually good for Trump. Like if Trump got hit by a car, there'd be reports, Oh, this will only help Trump win the nomination. It's not good to be indicted, and it's not good to.

Be convicted. Let me just say the fact is in the polls, he has gone up since he's been indicted.

He's gone up with the people who already support him, who view all of these charges as being part of the deep state's actions against him. But let's keep in mind that most people are not following politics closely. Most people who are going to be voting in the general election do not follow politics closely. Most of those people will look at the person who's been convicted of a criminal offense and say, Seems bad. I think that we really have managed to excise the normie vote from this conversation. We focus so much on the base, so much on the people who have supported Trump since 2016, so many people who have put so much emotional emphasis on their relationship with Donald Trump. Most people who even voted for him aren't like that. They voted for him in 2016 because of judges, or they voted for him in 2020 because of abortion. In 2024, it's going to be a little bit different, especially if he's convicted. That's how most people view politics.

Aihon, is Jane right? Or do you think that a Trump conviction, and again, this is an if, a Trump conviction would hurt him and change things in terms of his viability, either for the Republican nomination or in the fall? Or what doesn't kill him, does it make him stronger?

I certainly find it realistic that it would hurt him. I also think that you need to pay attention to the larger playing field. Keep in mind that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Is looming out there. You have a variety of other potential minor party presidential bids that are out there. And when it's a question of which candidate has the largest, most solid base of support in what could be a series of plurality contests in swing states, I think that looks pretty good for Donald Trump, even in the event that he does face a conviction.

Then there is the rematch that most people don't want, but still seems to be moving around unlikely. Here is the latest Monmouth poll that shows that Joe Biden has the lowest approval rating so far, 34 %, one-third of voters nationally in this poll approving the job, he is doing almost two-thirds disapprove? I'm going to ask you a question I've asked you before. I'm not going to ask you a question I'm sure I'm going to ask you throughout 2024. What are the chances that Joe Biden drops out of the race either of his own volition or because what's left of the Democratic Party elders come to him and say, Enough.

I think that the time for this has almost already passed. Unless there is a very tough conversation between Joe Biden and his family or Joe Biden and his doctor, those are the only two things that I think at this point will get him out of the race. Because I think even if the grand foobas of the Democratic Party come to him and say we need a Plan B, the fact of the matter is there's not a really great Plan B sitting out there. That would be the necessary conditions.

I guess the question is if you're at 34 %, isn't anything any plan B better? I mean, we don't really know what a Grouchon Whitmer or a Gavin Newsom would do in a race.

That's right. And so when you poll a generic Democrat against, sorry, Donald Trump, generic Democrat does really great. But there is no such thing as a generic Democrat. I mean, Joe Biden may actually be as close as you can get to generic Democrat. So that's why I'm skeptical that Democrats have a better plan than Joe Biden.

Except.

To make Donald Trump even more obnoxious to voters than he already is. To try to say to voters who think of Joe Biden, Hey, you didn't deliver on the unity or the calm and stability you promised to say, You think I'm bad. This other guy is going to be even worse.