The first real test for the Republican candidates for President is less than two months away, and we're now less than a year out from the presidential election. Cnn, senior data reporter, Harry Antin, joins us to run the numbers. All right, Harry. We've gotten a steady stream of polls. They appear to all be suggesting the same thing, right?

They do. If you see one poll that has a candidate two points down to another candidate, you say, Okay, this race is within the margin of error. This poll is within the margin of error. But we've not just had one poll, not two, not three. We've had four recent polls nationally that suggest something very interesting, that is that Donald Trump, the former President of the United States, is ahead of Joe Biden, the current President of the United States, by anywhere from two to four points. Now, that's not a particularly large lead, but it is a lead that is very consistent throughout the polling. It's a lead that is holding in the swing states as well. So as we are a little bit less than a year out from the 2024 election, there's no other way I can insist on designating this race than one at this particular point that Donald Trump leads.

I know you always come armed with facts and figures. Just how unusual is it for an incumbent president to be trailing at this point?

Yeah, me coming on with facts and figures and historical pieces of data? I'd never do that, Paul. Never, ever, ever. But as a matter of fact, I have this one time anyway. Look, if you go back over the last 80 years, go all the way back to F. D. R, what do you see? You see there, in fact, I've only been two incumbent presidents at this particular point in time who have actually trailed for re-election at this point since 1943. One of those, I think, is fairly familiar given the last slide. That was Donald Trump back in 2020. He, of course, went on to lose. But Joe Biden is just the second President at this point to be trailing for re-election. The average incumbent, in fact, leads by a little bit more than 10 percentage points. This is extremely unusual to find a President trailing by any margin, even one that's say, two or three percentage points on average, as we saw in that first slide.

Okay, well, Biden just won three years ago. So what are the big reasons that he's now trailing?

Yeah, I would say it comes down to age. It's age in one way. It's age in the fact that voters overwhelmingly believe he's too old to be effective as President. We had a recent New York Times, Santa College poll that found that about 70 % of likely voters, in fact, said that very different from four years ago when that number was about half. But it's also age in another way. It's aged if you look within the electorate and see where Joe Biden has lost support. Take a look at voters under the age of 35. This is the margin, Joe Biden versus Donald Trump. Four years ago, Joe Biden won these voters overwhelmingly. He won them by over 20 percentage points. Look at where he is now. Now, he's still ahead of Donald Trump, but he's only ahead by five points. And of course, elections are all about margins. When you look throughout the different age groups, you see essentially that Joe Biden's margins are actually holding amongst the older voters, but younger voters have been swinging away from him. And if this ends up being the margin on election day, it would be the smallest margin for a Democratic candidate among voters under the age of 35 since I was actually eligible to vote.

That's how long it's been. Donald Trump would absolutely take this. I may be young, Paula, but I ain't that young.

Well, turning to the holiday next week, I am told that I have to ask you this question. Now, this is the one I'm most curious about your response. Thanksgiving is on Thursday. What are you most thankful for, Harry?

Yeah, I made a deal with your executive producer, Tim, on this one. I said I had to get to this slide. He actually came through here. I went last week to a Colombia Lions football game on the Northern tip of Manhattan. Great student journalist there. They lost last week. They won this week. It's another losing season for Colombia, but I still love my lions. My father took me to the games as a kid. I still root for him. Roar, Lions, Roar. They won the day. Way to go on The High Note, boys.

That's so cute. I think I'm most thankful for my daughter. She just started walking, and yesterday she added a new word to her vocabulary, cookie, girl, after my own heart. Harry Anson, thank you so much.

Bye-bye.