Returning now to the Middle East, CNN analyst and Axios reporter, Barack Raqq-Rivid, is now reporting that Iran has indeed decided to directly attack Israel. And though it's not clear when that might happen or what form it would take. The attack could come, he reports, as soon as in the next few days. With us now, CNN military analyst, retired Lieutenant General Mark Hurtling, and former State Department Middle East negotiator, Aaron David Miller. General, starting with you, what do you expect from Iran as compared to the drone and multi-missile attacks of 300 rockets and missiles that were directed towards Israel back in April from Iran, directly from Iranian territory. Territory. Do you expect something similar or something different?

You know, Wolf, you can't really say. It could be a spectrum along that line. Anything from a massive attack, not only from Iran, but also in coordination with Hezbollah and with other forces in the area, the PMF forces in Syria and Iraq, as well as the Houthis in Yemen. Or could we see just a kinetic strike that's precision and surgical in nature to show Israel and for Iran to show their own population that they are doing something about what struck in Tehran. So it could be anywhere between those two extremes, but I think they have to do something just to appease their own population, but also to show Israel that they are ready to confront them. But anything that they do could certainly expand this region into a catastrophic conflict.

And that's certainly what Israeli military officials are bracing for right now, as I can tell you, based on briefings that I've had over the past few days. Aaron, there's been some confusion today, as you know, over how Hamas is treating Thursday's scheduled ceasefire hostage release talks. What's your read on the statement they put out earlier today?

The worst thing in a negotiation, Wolf, is to tell your negotiating partners that you're in a hurry. I suspect part of Hamas's calculation is they know that Biden's clock Netanyahu's clock and their own clock are not really in sync. The administration wants this done yesterday, and they're evidencing all sorts of signs, which are completely understandable, given how fraught the situation is for the hostages and the prospects of an escalation on the Northern front. They know if they could get a ceasefire, it would also come down the north. The problem is that the Biden clock is not synced it seems to me, either with the Netanyahu clock or the Sinuar clock. And Yaha Sinuar, ensconced in some tunnel somewhere, is making decisions based on what he considers to be Hamas's needs and requirements. And those require a true cessation of military activity by the Israelis, and Benjamin Netanyahu, for his own understandable reasons, are not prepared to agree. I think on this one, Wolf, that Hamas ultimately will show for Thursday's meeting if the whole thing is not undermined by a major Hezbollah or Iranian strike sometime in the next 72 hours.

Which is certainly possible. General Hurtling, is there scenario you can foresee where Iran launches its retaliatory attack against Israel in the coming days, and the region still manages to avert a much wider regional war. What needs to happen for that to be how this It goes.

Yeah, certainly, Wolf, there is that potential, and it would be dependent on Iran holding their fire, literally not conducting the large scale attack they held last time, where a lot of Israeli citizens could be hurt or killed. If that happens, what I'd say is Katie bar the door. If Israel is struck to the point where there are multiple casualties or a lot of deaths, I think we're going to see that conflict spin out of control. That's the part where I'm very concerned because it has to do with not only what Iran's action will be, but as Erin David just said, also what Hezbollah and Hamas will do to contribute to this. But it It would certainly rise into a regional conflict or beyond, in my view. I don't think Iran is ready for that or has the military or the diplomatic capability to do something of that scale. They should be very careful in what they do next.

I think you make a very important point, General, because based on the briefings I've been having here, if Iran were to do a direct assault on Israel and wind up killing a lot of Israeli civilians, especially destroying a lot of buildings in Tel Aviv Tel Aviv, where I am right now, attacking military bases, Ben Gurian Airport, the international airport, outside of Tel Aviv, Israel would respond with enormous military force against Iran, something the Israelis believe the Iranians would deliberately, desperately try to avoid, but they won't be able to do so. So we'll see if this explodes into that type of regional war. Aaron, this forthcoming attack from Iran, as is now expected against Israel, is in response to the killing of a top Hamas leader who was in Teheran. Obviously, there's more to come here, but how has that already impacted the region altogether?

I think it has in several ways. Yannis and Warholf is now has now been elevated to the head of Hamas, which is something, frankly, we all knew from the beginning, that he's the major decision maker. I will say, though, that Mark Generalin raises a critically important point, and that is the Hezbollah piece of this. It takes 12 minutes for a cruise missile to impact in Israel, assuming it's not intercepted launch from Iran. We're talking a minute and a half, probably less time for Hezbollah's high-trajectory weapons and its precision guided munitions to strike Israel proper. The real damage here, frankly, is not going to come from Iran. It's going to come from Isbala. But I really do believe that both, and again, John Hurtling is right, I don't think Hezbollah, nor to Iran, is interested in the strike that would trigger a massive Israeli response. A response, I might add, Wolf, and the Iranians know this, that could easily dry in the United States. The question is, will we be able to get the fine line between doing something that is significant but not triggering the regional escalation that would create something the Middle East, Wolf, has never seen before, a genuine multi-front war involving Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Israel, and perhaps even an Israeli and US military involvement against Iran.

Yeah, it's a really dangerous situation right now. General Hurtling, before I let you go, I want to close with a quick question on Ukraine right now, which is seeing some serious deterioration as well. The Ukrainian government claims that Russian troops set fire near the Zaporizhya nuclear plant in Ukraine. What's your read on that situation? How dangerous is it unfolding right now?

Yeah, I've been watching the Ukrainian front for the last seven days and have been amazed, Wolf. This fire that's occurring at the for that pareja power plant, I believe in all intelligence, at least all open source intelligence, is saying that it's a result of a tire fire inside or near the smoke stack or the stack of the nuclear power plant. That is to distract. It's a Russian way of doing distraction. Remember, Russia has control of that power plant. They have forces in the area. There are IA The EA members there as well saying what's happening. They say all radiation is safe still, but they are very concerned. They've been saying that for months. But the fact that Russia would start a fire to envelop smoke into the area and indicate that something's going on. It's just another approach by Mr. Putin to conflict what's going on in this area and cause more danger to not only Ukraine, but also the entire region.

Let me follow up, General. What do you make of the Ukrainian incursion into Russia? We're now told some 20 miles Ukrainian forces have moved inside Russia.

It's been fascinating for me, Wolf. First, I thought this was a raid. They have conducted these cross-border raids with small forces in the past. It now appears to be more of a demonstration. I certainly wouldn't call it an offensive yet. The key is going to be, can they sustain this fight? When you put that many forces, and there's apparently two brigades or more of Ukrainian forces that have gone across the border, not just of Khrushchev, but also in Belarod, you need a lot of logistics for an force that goes 20 kilometers. They've been there seven days. They need water, fuel, ammunition, supplies, parts. We'll see how long they're in there. They have taken a lot of prisoners. Estimates are over a couple of hundred Russian prisoners that have already been taken. There are some indications of movement of Russian reinforcements into the area to counter it. There's no proof of that just yet. The fighting has not been intense other than beyond the border guards and the forces that were in the area. This is Ukraine saying, We can do the same thing. The other thing that I'd point out, Wolf, is indications are that it's Western-style vehicles, the ones that have been given to Ukraine that are conducting most of this tack.

One of the One of the things that I find most fascinating is having been a striker brigade commander, it appears that strikers are in the areas. They move fast, they're very mobile, they're very quiet, and they're exactly fitted for this operation that would be a quick strike inside of a country and then a pullback very quickly without the need for a lot of logistics.

It's potentially a very dangerous situation unfolding between Ukraine and Russia as well. General Hartling, Aaron David-Miller, to both of you. Thank you very much for your analysis.