Transcribe your podcast
[00:00:00]

Foot clan. Your league's drafts are coming up. And if you are the champ, or if your league has a champ from last year, you need to go to fantasychamps.com, make sure you got that swag, get those rings, get those trophies, get those championship belts. And right now, if you add a belt or a trophy to your cart, you can get one of those championship rings. A $60 value for free. Just put in the code free ring@fantasychamps.com.

[00:00:32]

Welcome to the Fantasy Footballers podcast with your hosts, Andy Holloway, Jason Moore, and Mike Wright.

[00:00:48]

Oh, welcome in the fantasy footballers. Back again?

[00:01:02]

You startled me.

[00:01:04]

Startled myself.

[00:01:07]

Never let yourself know what your next move is.

[00:01:10]

Jason Moore, Mike ride, Andy Holloway, deucers Alley full of deucers. Al Borland in the house, Papa Josh and the. The Falcone. I got to be honest, the Falcons known for something at this point in time.

[00:01:27]

Yeah, he's known for taking a falcon, if you know what I mean. That's on the toilet.

[00:01:33]

And we know this because we've been reviewing the listener league entries, which. Sensational, awesome, incredible. Thank you. Brutal to have to just choose a handful of you for the listener league. But those decisions are being made.

[00:01:52]

Yeah. They will be finalized probably today, tomorrow, this week for sure. And we will. We will let you know. And so.

[00:02:03]

Look, we're gonna get to it today, maybe tomorrow.

[00:02:05]

Look, maybe this week, myself some time. Okay.

[00:02:10]

You should just started with this week.

[00:02:12]

Well, the truth, here's the truth.

[00:02:14]

Look, wait a minute now.

[00:02:15]

The truth is, I hope to have it done today or tomorrow. My nice. You know, there's a lot. There's a lot to do.

[00:02:22]

There's a lot.

[00:02:23]

I was like, okay, I'm gonna do it today or tomorrow.

[00:02:25]

No, that's not, it's.

[00:02:28]

Look, if you don't hear tomorrow, it doesn't mean, you know, it doesn't necessarily means. I'm a busy man.

[00:02:33]

You ever negotiated against yourself?

[00:02:35]

I just did, and I got a week out of it.

[00:02:39]

Yeah, you did. So thank you for those entries. It's awesome. It's awesome to see the community and the folklan is mighty.

[00:02:47]

But I think your point in bringing that up was that.

[00:02:50]

Oh, yeah.

[00:02:50]

Several people have submitted about taking a falcon.

[00:02:53]

Yeah. That's their words, not mine. Yeah, we would never, we would never sell him down the river all show long when he doesn't show up because he has to take a dump. The big news yesterday, this week, the UDK for Life giveaway. So if you pick up an ultimate draft kit before Friday's livestream, which will be doing an exclusive q and a live stream where we'll give away a U decay for life and assigned Justin.

[00:03:24]

Jefferson Jersey and entertainment.

[00:03:28]

And we'll be giving away entertainment for free as well. But we'll choose them live on Friday. This is fun to do every year and you can enter by going to ultimate draftkit.com. all of the giveaway details are listed on that page as well, and that'll be fun. So ultimate draft kid.com plus, you know what? I kind of buried the lead. You'll have the ultimate draft kit, right? Right. You'll also have the product that will help you win on draft day. Build your cheat sheet and have the app and mark your players and take advantage of your league mates and make them feel stupid and cry and go home and be. You'll. They'll be just like Papa Josh.

[00:04:03]

Yeah, we say a lot, you don't win the, you know, you don't win your league at the draft, but you can certainly win the draft day and just completely make your leaguemates feel so stupid.

[00:04:14]

It's a good foundation.

[00:04:15]

Oh, yeah. Yeah. You, you build a foundation at the draft for your championship run, and the ultimate draft kit is the best tool to do it.

[00:04:22]

All right, let's jump in.

[00:04:26]

Welcome to the waiver Wire, presented by NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube tv.

[00:04:33]

All right, the last couple of weeks we have, we've jumped into the waiver wire specifically for dynasty players that we're paying attention to in preseason training camp that you should pick up, that you should throw on the back of your roster. And then the next couple of weeks, we'll be looking at what we kind of call the undrafted gyms, the, the players that aren't being selected in the average standard twelve team, ten team league, but that you might want to, you know, tuck away, see what happens a week, one or two.

[00:05:05]

Yeah, it's basically what, what we'll look at, you know, in the, in the future weeks before kickoff for the waiver wire is essentially who you should be drafting in the last round or if you've done your draft. Cause I know a lot of people have their drafts in the books already. You might want to take a look at your roster and say, yeah, I would rather have this, you know, this undrafted Jim on the waiver wires. But for now, this is the final week of looking at it from a dynasty perspective. Last week we brought up such great names as Tyrone Tracy.

[00:05:35]

Yeah, we can start there. I mean, Tyrone Tracy. The news this morning, injured at practice, air casted now being the latest, was here yeah, he's going to the, he is going to the hospital for special surgery in the New York area. And so this is likely immediate surgery, likely a season ending injury for a player that looked like a great depth pickup for the Giants backfield, which maybe at this point leads you right into Eric Gray.

[00:06:10]

It was, Eric Gray would be the, the number one pickup now in replacement of that. That's certainly a name to pick up. This depth chart is basically just Devin Singletary. And if Devin Singletary goes down, then without Tyrone Tracy, air Gray is a, is a must pickup.

[00:06:30]

And then, Mike, you mentioned Jordan Whittington yesterday. 6th round draft pick from the Rams who flashed in preseason might be worth tossing on the back of a roster.

[00:06:41]

Yeah. And I mean, it wasn't just the play, which, it was sensational at six for 74, but the, the way that he's being talked about by his head coach. I also, in that game, they were talking to Stafford on the sideline and just his words about Whittington were very, very kind. Not, it's not everything, but it is just, it's another piece of the puzzle. He's, to me is someone that needs to be picked up just in case.

[00:07:07]

Well, he's a grown man.

[00:07:09]

Yes.

[00:07:09]

According to Sean McVeigh says he's a, he's just a mature rookie. He's a grown man. He plays like a grown man with the ball in his hands.

[00:07:17]

I can't help but think that the view of Whittington is being probably appropriately. Yeah. You know, impacted by Puka's selection last year, like, you know, the Rams identifying value at wide receiver later in the draft.

[00:07:33]

It is. But if you compare the collegiate production, the, you know, if you look at our production profiles in the UDK, you compare what Puka had in college versus what Whittington has had in college.

[00:07:46]

There's is.

[00:07:47]

Yeah, one is. One is absolutely excellent. Like Puka crushed versus zone, 3.81 yards per zone, which was better than Jamar Chase. Did Whittington crush it? Nothing.

[00:08:00]

Yeah, but he looked good on an NFL field, so it's worth a shot.

[00:08:04]

Couple other six round picks. Andre Yoshi Vas.

[00:08:08]

Yes.

[00:08:08]

Wide receiver for Cincinnati should be on rosters. Jalen Naylor, a six round pick who seems to have been kind of winning the wide receiver three job in Minnesota and then another wide, wide receiver three job that seems to be. One is Jalen Tolbert in Dallas who, you know, people talked about him when he was coming out and nothing materialized. Oh, yeah. Johnny Wilson in Philly's also absolutely six round pick. So are we just targeting six six round whiteouts?

[00:08:40]

Well, those are the guys that are on waivers in dynasty. But I do think Johnny Wilson has a path. He basically, even though he is six foot six, he's really more of a slot type of wide receiver. I think that's where they will use him, and he has to beat out Paris Campbell. The good news for Johnny Wilson. Johnny Wilson, I thought, was. I liked his film in college. He was productive. He was large. People. People really just said he was large. Yeah, he was very, very large for a wide receiver. And everyone was like, oh, you're going to have to move to tight end. And the Eagles drafted him and said, no, we're not moving to him to tight end. We think he's valuable, and they've been using him. He's been getting first team reps, and he only has to beat Paris Campbell. Paris Campbell's not good at football, so that's the path for Johnny Wilson.

[00:09:26]

Let me ask you guys, because his name has been brought up on the podcast. Colby Parkinson, Los Angeles Rams tight end. Because it was last year before the. Before the free agency period, Davis Allen looked like, okay, this is a good stash here, because Tyler Higbee, their starter, absolutely annihilated his knee in January of like, if Higbee is back by the midpoint of the season, I would say that's a. That's a huge success for him. Colby Parkinson signed a pretty lucrative deal. We didn't know exactly what to make of it, but he did not play this first preseason week. He sat with the known starters. Meanwhile, Davis Allen was out there a ton. Are you. Have you changed your view here of this? Because, look, Tyler Higbee, while not a superstar, has been a good fill in tight end speaker.

[00:10:17]

Two, the complication of the situation jason brought up a long time ago, which is Colby Parkinson is a. He's worthy of the contract as a tight end in all the things that tight ends do. But four years to accumulate 57 catches just makes me think that that role, he can be a full time starter and catch 25 passes. He's proven that. So that. That puts that hesitation in there where it's like, okay, it's probably neither. And then when Higbee returns, is definitely neither or definitely is that. That sentence was weird.

[00:10:51]

I liked it.

[00:10:51]

I mean, you meant once, Higbee, what is it?

[00:10:53]

When there's three, you can.

[00:10:54]

You can't say driver.

[00:10:56]

Nice. River.

[00:10:58]

None of them.

[00:10:59]

Yeah, that's it.

[00:10:59]

I think that's what you'd say thank you for me, I would still prefer Davis Allen just for the hopeful upside. I think that we know that the hopeful upside of Parkinson doesn't really exist. He could have the role and the role could be like, oh, maybe you could stream him a week or something and he catches a couple touchdowns.

[00:11:16]

That's, that's the point. That's all I'm hoping for.

[00:11:19]

They played some twelve, you know, when they get out there in twelve, Parkinson's blocking and Allen's running down the field.

[00:11:24]

Yeah, I'm not hoping for that. Like, I don't care if I've got. There's going to be a hundred, you know, titans out there that catch a couple touchdowns this year. I'm, I don't think Davis Allen gets it done, but I, I think that's where I would make my bet in the sense that if there is upside to be had, it's, it's in him.

[00:11:45]

Any other waiver names you guys want to bring up before we move on?

[00:11:48]

I will throw out Jared Wiley I mentioned on the dynasty pod as my nasty boy of summer. He is the rookie tight end behind Travis Kelsey, behind Noah Gray and Noah Gray. But no, Gray is not under contract next year, Travis Kelsey could retire any offseason. So all of a sudden there's a world where the number one tight end, and he's been working with the starters from the, the very get go of camp. So I don't know. Jared Wiley's just a name to know.

[00:12:18]

And he at least is, he's, he's really athletic. And that is, in the simplest terms, when you're trying to find a tight end, athleticism is where you should start, along with draft capital.

[00:12:32]

All right, thanks again to NFL Sunday ticket on YouTube TV. Watch every game every Sunday when you bundle NFL Sunday ticket and YouTube tv, sign up today@YouTube.com. fantasy footballers local and national games on YouTube TV NFL Sunday ticket for out of market games excludes digital only games. Device and content restrictions apply.

[00:12:54]

News and notes from around the league presented by USAA Insurance.

[00:13:03]

It'S preseason and the alarms were going off yesterday. Yeah, late yesterday. Jamir Gibbs leg injury at practice. What is the latest?

[00:13:18]

The latest. I heard they're calling it a hamstring injury. I have not seen a significant update as to the grade, the severity. What happened? You know, they will probably shut him down for a little while here in, you know, you, you probably won't see him until the beginning of the season. Just to be safe with the, you know, yoohoo, the hamstring pops up. And I will say that, you know, over the years. Over the years, hamstring injuries in camp have a nasty habit of popping up again in the season. That's nothing to say. You can't draft Jamir Gibbs. I mean, obviously, Jamir Gibbs is awesome. It just raises his risk factor to me a little bit. You know, where he's going in drafts. I. You know, I would take him ahead of Chiron easily every time. Now it's like, now it's. It's a little bit of a question.

[00:14:12]

I have seen some Jamir Gibbs dynasty managers sending through panic trades.

[00:14:19]

Oh, don't, don't.

[00:14:20]

Dynasty. Don't.

[00:14:21]

Not to trade him away. Acquire Montgomery.

[00:14:26]

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[00:14:27]

From the Montgomery manager because they feel like they need to almost buy an insurance policy right now due to the injury. And I guess I'm curious, how reactionary would you be in that situation? Like, would you give up a little bit of value in an unequal trade to just ensure your gibbs, or are you hurting yourself?

[00:14:46]

I know. I think I would. In a dynasty league, this is.

[00:14:51]

I think it's jumped up to a one. Like, if I. If I have Montgomery and the team with Gibbs comes to me for a. A very playable running back at David Montgomery. Yeah. Who, if Gibbs is out, I have a locked and loaded RB one. That price starts at a one.

[00:15:06]

Yeah, you're right. You're right. Yeah. I don't think I would trade David Montgomery for less than one. He's. He's. Let's say that Jamir Gibbs is fully healthy this year. David Montgomery is a full starting running back.

[00:15:16]

Yes.

[00:15:16]

Gonna have as good a chance of anybody in the league to score double digit rushing touchdowns. And so, yeah, I would. I would say it starts there.

[00:15:24]

My reaction was, I probably would have to pay more than a one.

[00:15:27]

Yes. Yes.

[00:15:29]

But David Montgomery is the other side of this. We've been talking about it in all the mock drafts that we do where when you take either Gibbs or Montgomery, there is a built in thing that most other running backs at value don't have. Wherever this is a playable asset, and should the other guy go down, it becomes an incredibly important winning upside.

[00:15:51]

Have we talked about that enough with Raheem Ocean, the 7th round?

[00:15:55]

Probably not.

[00:15:55]

The fact that, like. I mean, like, a Chan literally was hurt three times last year.

[00:16:00]

Yeah, but we don't.

[00:16:01]

I don't remember talking about that a lot on mo shirts. Breakdown of. Just, like, what if I told you a chance gone in week three.

[00:16:07]

Yeah.

[00:16:07]

Then, like, most rb two last year.

[00:16:10]

It will be a crazy steal. Did you guys see coach. What, Jay? What?

[00:16:15]

Oh, yeah.

[00:16:15]

McDonald's.

[00:16:16]

Ronald McDonald.

[00:16:17]

Coach McDonald's, coach of the Miami Dolphins. Coach Ronald McDonald talking about running backs and they. He was asked about this, like, running backs being listed as starters, and he kind of took, I mean, look, he gives some wild answers sometimes, but essentially he was like, it. We have. We have four good running backs. Like, I will let the running back play dictate. That type of stuff is essentially what he was saying. And so it's. I mean, it just, it just juiced me up for most are even more. The value is, is crazy. And that's not being off of a chN, that's just being excited for a value running back we're getting later.

[00:16:57]

I don't think if a Chan goes down that Raheem Mostert would do what David Montgomery or Gibbs would do in the sense that Jalen Wright, the rookie draft would be just brought in and, and Jeff Wilson is still on the team. I think that they will still use a rotation there, whereas I think with the Lions, should one of those guys go down, I mean, obviously someone will come in to spell people. But the, I mean, we saw it last year, even with Gibbs when Montgomery went down, they get the, like a workhorse role.

[00:17:25]

Yeah. I lie. I can see Jason.

[00:17:27]

Yeah.

[00:17:27]

The line share noise. Yeah. This is the new thing. I mean, did you see Matt Lafleur coming out and talking about like, how, how it, you know, this talk of.

[00:17:36]

You want to vomit.

[00:17:37]

This talk of how if, you know, trying to put a wide receiver as my wide receiver, one makes them want to vomit. Listen, Matt, I'll make you a deal. You give me the top four fantasy finishers and wide receiver, and I will call all your receivers. One wide receiver. One.

[00:17:51]

Absolutely. You just give us the order.

[00:17:53]

Hey, no, you finish. You have two of them. Finish the top twelve. I'll say you have two wide receiver once.

[00:17:59]

There you go. That's a fair point. All right. Good news on Malik, neighbors. Not only did Brian Dable say that all the tests came back positive and that he'll be okay and that it's not serious, but Malik Nabor said he feels good. He has no doubt he'll be there for week one. And he said he thought it was no big deal when it happened, but wanted to get it checked out.

[00:18:18]

Yeah. And I mean, that's good news. Cause we've all rolled our ankle before where it is actually not a big deal. You know, where it's like, oh, I'm worried. And then it's like, okay, you're okay. He was stretching today. He's on the field that, you know, I think he practices this week, and I'm. I'm starting to not worry at all about it.

[00:18:36]

JJ McCarthy missed practice due to knee soreness. When I saw this come through, I thought it was an announcement that he was going to get first team reps, and it was rather his knee. Yeah. Nice. On the. On the ouch list. Chase Claypool on IR, ending his season.

[00:18:52]

Good night, sweet prince.

[00:18:54]

And I see this news bit in here, so maybe Mike wanted to talk about it.

[00:18:58]

I didn't put it in.

[00:18:59]

Albert brear saying, bears wide receiver Kenan Allen appears to be 230 pounds.

[00:19:04]

Yeah.

[00:19:05]

What do you mean appears to be? That's what he's listed at.

[00:19:07]

Yeah, he was. The point is, whoa. He's up to 230 right now. I mean, what was he. He wasn't playing at that last.

[00:19:15]

There's no way that's, I mean, something to watch.

[00:19:20]

He was probably playing at 210.

[00:19:21]

Probably.

[00:19:22]

Oh, have you had that Chicago deep dish, though? Oh, I mean, that stuff.

[00:19:28]

210 to 230 overnight and deep dishes.

[00:19:30]

How you pack it on. I mean, that stuff is.

[00:19:33]

Dude, can you eat more than one slice of that?

[00:19:35]

I'm not supposed to, but can you?

[00:19:37]

Can you?

[00:19:38]

I could do. I could do slices.

[00:19:39]

You can?

[00:19:40]

Yeah.

[00:19:41]

I don't.

[00:19:41]

I don't know the consequences.

[00:19:43]

I literally mean that word, as in, can I.

[00:19:46]

Well, you put in the effort. You can do it.

[00:19:48]

Yeah. You think with enough training, we can.

[00:19:51]

But seriously, Keenan is going to town on that right now, because that is.

[00:19:56]

He's like, I'm almost retired.

[00:19:57]

This.

[00:19:58]

Find someone you're deal.

[00:19:59]

I only work in the short part of the field. It.

[00:20:01]

It comes up because there was, like, there was some reporting from a few days ago of. Of a report, a beat reporter out of San Francisco. Sorry, not San Francisco, out of Chicago. And they, like, they had tweeted about it, and then they pulled it down, talking about Keenan Allen's weight. And they're like, I want to make sure I'm getting the information correct, because, you know, we're just hearing, like, just Keenan. Look a little slow to you guys? And then the actual report came out of there. So it's just keen. No one's an elite player, but if he's really a little bit overweight, playing at that weight, it's going to be a problem.

[00:20:40]

Our data from last year, I don't. I don't know when. When they weigh in, but looking says two to eleven was Keenan.

[00:20:48]

Yeah. That's a, that's a pretty big difference. So something to pay attention to. That was today's news and notes presented, as always, by USAA insurance. Learn more@usaa.com insurance. We're going to take a break, jump right back into a rankings countdown. Ah, this is Keenan is now at 240.

[00:21:12]

Oh, no, another slice.

[00:21:14]

45.

[00:21:15]

Oh, man.

[00:21:17]

So tight end is in the picture.

[00:21:20]

So you're saying at the rate I'm going, I could turn in. I could be Keenan Allen, other than.

[00:21:26]

Yes. You are Keenan. You are Keenan Allen. Other than Kelvin Benjamin. I can't think of a lot of the, like a weight related wide receiver story. Like.

[00:21:37]

No, that's not. Remember frequent.

[00:21:41]

Yeah, Kelvin Benjamin.

[00:21:43]

Yeah, that's it.

[00:21:44]

That's it. He didn't have a drop, right? No, I'm thinking of Devon s scrumptious. I don't have it here.

[00:21:54]

Tight ends.

[00:21:56]

All right, top ten tight end rankings. Wrapping up our rankings episodes, we are in half PPR. And, Mike, you had some stuff to toss in about tight ends and researching.

[00:22:11]

We're giving give you our hopeful potential top ten here, but want to remind people of what actually has happened historically when we're drafting tight ends and their ability to hit a true ceiling. So over the last five years in average draft position, the tight ends were drafted one to three. They have been hitting that top five at a 60%. Obviously, if you draft a guy at one, you don't want them top five, but it's at least it's not a complete disaster.

[00:22:40]

Yeah. It doesn't ruin the pick.

[00:22:41]

Right. It's so there's the high end, tight ends are hitting. That's why people are more and more jumping into that. If you go to, like, the middle of the draft, you know, the, the four to six that has dropped down to a 37%. And here is the absolute killer adP. Over the last five years, tight ends, drafted seven to twelve, have finished in the top five 3% of the time.

[00:23:06]

That's not top three. That's not the number one. That's the top five. They only break in 3% of the time.

[00:23:11]

Yes. So it essentially what the point is of the strategy that we talk about a lot of. I want an elite tight end, and then there's that, that middle tier of like, four to six where I'm okay taking the chance on them, but after that, you pretty much punt the tight end position.

[00:23:30]

But that means you're also punting upside, right. Like, based on these, this data, you are. I guess what I mean is you need to be realistic about the outcome of that punt, you can't just say like, I'm hunting it, but then I hope to get top five production by some miracle, your odds are almost nothing.

[00:23:45]

Right?

[00:23:45]

But I'm saying is half of last year's top twelve were drafted in the 10th round or later. Like, it's these, it's those. It's the tight ends where you're at the point of, all right, dude, I got to get a tight end. I still got to get one. And they're running out. It's the truth of ADP has been, don't worry about those guys. When it's running out.

[00:24:05]

You're really talking about the first few players. We're going to mention the guys that are near, you know. Yes. Tight end. 910 1112 those type of guys Historically.

[00:24:15]

The, the hit rate of these first few guys we're going to talk about is, is bad.

[00:24:20]

So then if you said half of last year's top twelve were round ten plus.

[00:24:25]

Yes.

[00:24:26]

And 97% of the top five historically is the first six titans off the board, then threading the needle on and wasting a pick from the middle rounds towards the end is not worth it.

[00:24:41]

That's what I'm saying. Yeah, exactly. Yes.

[00:24:43]

Number ten.

[00:24:45]

Well, what a cool introduction for David and Joku.

[00:24:48]

Hey, and it's not that we're saying it's impossible for these players. These are our best shot at it. It's just know what you're getting into when you're drafting tight ends.

[00:24:57]

Is there any position, though, just to kind of throw a wrinkle into the thought process and totally throw out everything you said? All right, is there, is there any position like tight end where you do see these runs from the position over periods of the season where the final result is very different? Like, could be like Najoku's season. He was the league winning tight end. Yes, he was the singular league winning tight end, but his fantasy finish was the tight end six. So he didn't qualify. Right. Like, he didn't fit into that box of finishing top five, being drafted in those middle rounds. And yet, you know, the tight end position is strange because you can catch lightning in a bottle and we've seen that as seasons have ended from time to time. So, you know, you talk about Mike on tips and tricks and we got a tips and tricks episode this weekend. You've talked about looking at your season in chunks, and I wonder if you don't have one of those top five guys if you need to keep looking at your season in chunks at the tight end position.

[00:25:57]

Yeah, look. Look at that schedule. Cause those who have a warm and fuzzy feeling about David Najoku from last year had him at the end. They didn't have him at the beginning because the first five games of the season, he put up 3.44.847. .6 okay. 3.9. Like he was wide rest or tight end. 17 was the highest finish he put up in his first five games, which.

[00:26:26]

Was just par for the course of a six year career where you have been waiting for David Najoku to do what he did at the end of the year but never got.

[00:26:35]

Yeah, yeah. And all it took was Joe Flacco. So the question with David Najoku is, was the late season, you know, manimalistic breakout.

[00:26:47]

Whoa.

[00:26:48]

Enough to. Enough to, like, make him the clear number two target in the offense? Or was it the fact that you had predominantly a Joe Flacco led stretch of games for his best games that were, you know, look, you got a statue in the pocket that's not going to be extending plays. And look, you know, he's looking for that safety valve and hyper targeting Najoku. I. I kind. I keep going back and forth, but I land more on the side that I don't think Najoku is going to be as good as he was the second half of last year with Deshaun Watson there.

[00:27:23]

Well, the cost is an 8th round pick, so it's in that, that danger zone that Mike was talking about. Do you agree with the same hesitation? Is it just, you know, everything on this offense seems to come down to whether Deshawn Watson is a real quarterback or nothing.

[00:27:37]

That.

[00:27:37]

And he played hurt. I mean, that was. Yes, he played her, but he played poorly as well.

[00:27:41]

Well, good news. He's cleared for contact as of it. Just came through this morning. Cleared for contact to Sean Watson every day.

[00:27:48]

Actually. Cleared.

[00:27:49]

Right, re cleared your contact.

[00:27:51]

He was cleared yesterday, but then they wanted to make sure.

[00:27:54]

Right, well, he got hit, and then it's like, oh, he's not. He's unclear. Now it's back.

[00:27:59]

Jerry Judy also factors into this. Like, is Jerry Judy a real wide receiver? And I'm not talking about, you know, like, is he actually play that position? I mean, they traded for him.

[00:28:11]

They not practicing either.

[00:28:13]

Yeah, but, but over the course of the season, they mean they made a gamble on Jerry Judy. And if. I mean, Amari Cooper is. He's the one. If Jerry Judy really can be the second target in here and David de Joku is then the third, that think that becomes a huge situation.

[00:28:30]

What week was Nick Chubb injured?

[00:28:32]

I think it was like, week two. Let me. I'll verify it. It was very early.

[00:28:36]

Week two. Okay. I guess I was curious, too, from an identity perspective. And we won't have Chubb to start the year as well. We've talked about Jerome Ford, but, like, the offense is going to need to transition into a passing offense. And the question is just whether, like you said, do you have a player in Judy, is Amari Cooper the same guy he's always been? And do they force feed the ball to Nujoku or not? I don't think it's, you know, the stakes are not as high with an 8th round pick, if you believe that they're going to continue to compete. I mean, I. I thought that Kevin Stefanski and this team did the most impressive job with all of the injuries last year of any team, and now it's their job to make Deshaun Watson work. And, you know, I get the impression that most of the time we talk about Najoku. You two would rather just wait.

[00:29:24]

Yeah, I think I'll keep taking shots when. When I get past. So I've talked about a bunch. Right. The top five. I want one of the top five tight ends. That's. That's where I'm usually trying to get the fifth one because I think there's five guys that can get number one. I've. I've now started to really kind of include George Kittle on that. So it's six. We'll have a big question mark here when we get to, you know, the. The next guy on the list. But I will say that after those guys, I'm waiting until whatever my last pick is. I just don't. I just don't care the difference between whether I get Najoku or Pat Friarmuth or whoever. I'm fine just loading up on wide receivers and running backs and saying if I'm not having a stud tight end, I want the rest of my roster to be worth it. Like, there should be a reason that my team doesn't have a great tight end. It's because I loaded up elsewhere, not just, oh, I got a worse tight end.

[00:30:19]

Speaker one? Well, yeah, no, I mean, I. That's a good strategy, and it probably is the one that's going to bear out. The nice thing about Nujoku, unlike Friar muth or some of the other later names, is that you had a stretch.

[00:30:30]

Yeah.

[00:30:31]

For, from week seven through 17, where he was the number one tight end in fantasy it's always nice to know, like, kittle to some extent. Like, Kittle hasn't been what he was three or four years ago, but at least, you know, on any given week, this one player can win you a week at the position where, you know, at least with Firemuth and Schultz, I don't think that's going to happen.

[00:30:52]

Right. I'm okay. I really am okay with. People are like, David Njoku's the guy of this range that I want to take the chance on. He just. He's not that for me. Because simply because of the next player, the number nine tight end here, who is in the exact same range, like ADP, we're going from David Njoku at 804 to this number nine. Number nine, Jake Turd Ferguson of the Dallas Cowboys.

[00:31:18]

That's why the poop emojis written in there.

[00:31:21]

Yeah, turd Ferguson.

[00:31:22]

It's funny hat.

[00:31:23]

It's funny hat.

[00:31:24]

Big hat.

[00:31:27]

It does make a more attractive now. Yeah. Yeah, turd.

[00:31:31]

I was out. No, man.

[00:31:32]

Turd Ferguson is your target here in the now. He still qualifies in the same. The same range as.

[00:31:41]

Oh, yeah.

[00:31:41]

As Najoku. And those stats that you're talking about.

[00:31:43]

I mean, he was only the. He was the tight end, eight at 8.3 points per game.

[00:31:47]

But you both would take him over Najoka.

[00:31:50]

And the reason being is, I believe, and I'm firmly projecting, that Ferguson is the number two target for the Dallas Cowboys passing offense. He led all tight ends and red zone targets. It didn't turn into as much fantasy goodness as we want. You're pointing.

[00:32:06]

Oh, breaking news.

[00:32:09]

Oh, I'm sorry. I'm seeing certain. Surgery for JJ McCarthy. What is that?

[00:32:14]

What?

[00:32:14]

Deucers alley. What are we reporting?

[00:32:17]

Vetting.

[00:32:18]

The Falcon dropped this one. So what do I see? Adam Schefter, how it is.

[00:32:24]

So it is from Shefty.

[00:32:25]

How extensive the surgery on JJ McCarthy's meniscus is will determine how long he will be.

[00:32:30]

Sigh dude.

[00:32:32]

He's gonna undergo knee surgery, and then they will determine the severity in the surgery. So he underwent an MRI on Monday night. So this is a follow up on our breaking news or our news segment from earlier.

[00:32:46]

Surgery for McCarthy looked so good, dude.

[00:32:50]

The baby may need to be sacrificed over a longer period of time.

[00:32:55]

That's.

[00:32:56]

That's unfortunate, but a meniscus injury is also not. You know, we're not talking. Well, a catastrophic ACL tear.

[00:33:03]

No, no, it's not that. But you. If. If memory is serving me, right, like there, you can have a meniscus surgery that can take you out for the year like that happened to Irv Smith and then you can have ones where it's almost like they're snipping it and.

[00:33:18]

Then it's just like Larry Fitzgerald did or that's like two, three weeks.

[00:33:21]

Yeah. Yeah. So it, I guess we sit back and wait for which surgery he gets. That is a big time bummer.

[00:33:28]

Yeah. All right, back to the turd.

[00:33:30]

So anyway, he's, he's the number two guy on, on the team. And last year, while it was his sophomore year, it was his first year as a starting tight end in the NFL for the Cowboys, where David Nujoku is headed into.

[00:33:46]

I mean, I believe it's year 22.

[00:33:49]

Yeah.

[00:33:50]

He's only 20 years old, though.

[00:33:51]

Yeah, he's amazing.

[00:33:52]

He's very David Njoku. Still young for a tight end, but.

[00:33:55]

It'S just drafted at twelve years old.

[00:33:57]

We, we haven't seen it where his first year being the starter, he was the tight end eight. And I think he can, I think he can improve from there.

[00:34:04]

He left a ton on the field if you look at what his expected touchdown rate should have been for the amount of red zone work he received. And, and Dak has always used his tight in this way. So Dax, number one tight end. While they don't have a clear alpha wide receiver to like when it was Cooper and Lamb together, there's, there's a good role here. Now, this still falls into the same category. Like, when I say that I lean more on the side, that David Najoku is not going to be great, not going to be that tight in one with, with Watson. I'm not out on the Joku or out on Ferguson. I like both, but they are in the same category to me of like, I just don't care that much about the, this level of tight end. I, I want to view this as a streaming position. Tight ends are one of the best positions to, like, actually get a lot of points based on matchup and playing the matchup. I mean, we forget that it wasn't just the Flacco thing for Najoku, but we knew that his upcoming schedule against the tight end was like, he played like the six worst defenses against tight end in a row.

[00:35:08]

So Ferguson falls into that category for me. I like him. He's got upside with the touchdowns. He led all tight ends, 25 targets in the red zone.

[00:35:16]

Yeah, talk about a different kind of player than ninjoku from an athletic profile.

[00:35:20]

Oh, yeah.

[00:35:21]

But he's taught, you know, like, Najoku's off the charts and all of the major explosiveness and quickness and speed. Ferguson's not bad. He's just. He prototypes as a touchdown dependent, potentially great red zone target on a great offense and should not be ignored.

[00:35:36]

Do you, Andy, you're more. Andy, you're more in on Nujoku than we are. Do you, who do you feel like has the better probability of hitting ten touchdowns?

[00:35:49]

Jake Ferguson.

[00:35:50]

Okay.

[00:35:51]

Yeah, I am really trying. I mean, in this conversation, all the conversations on the offseason, I'm trying to, like, like, wash away any bias I have from, like, I jumped on the back of David Najoku and rode that.

[00:36:04]

It's a stall, man.

[00:36:04]

I wrote that stallion into a championship.

[00:36:06]

I mean, like, he didn't even feel you. That's how strong.

[00:36:09]

I know. He had no clue yet you were.

[00:36:11]

He was you. It was a fly on his back.

[00:36:13]

But, I mean, like, middle of last year with the schedule, and again, we. Part of the in season tools that we provide is the strength of schedule and the. The projections of where weaknesses are at tight end. And it takes time to accumulate that. You cannot go into the year and project every defense from last year to be the same, have the same weaknesses. It always changes. So it takes two or three weeks a lot easier. Yeah, it takes two or three weeks at least to identify it, normally four or five, to get real, meaningful data. And then you make those mid season adjustments. And both Najoku and Ferguson fit into that category of one. If you take them, don't stay hyper committed if it's not working out. And in Jason's case, like, maybe it's just not worth the. The mid round commitment. If you can take a shot somewhere else, and if you like an upside talent later, we need to move on to a chaotic number.

[00:37:02]

Number eight, Kyle Pitts.

[00:37:05]

Yeah. This is the one I said incorrectly was seven. This is the interesting one. Who's taking the shot on a nice misdirection. Yeah.

[00:37:13]

I mean, Kyle Pitts is. It's all about embracing the chaos. If you take Kyle Pitts, it's not. He's a fifth round pick. I mean, that's gonna make it hard to do.

[00:37:23]

He could be the best pick in.

[00:37:24]

The drive, be the number one tight end.

[00:37:26]

Yeah. No, I want to say yes.

[00:37:29]

Mm hmm.

[00:37:30]

Man.

[00:37:30]

What if you said no?

[00:37:32]

I'm going to say no.

[00:37:33]

Yeah, that's what I would do, man. Because otherwise, you're the guy who said yes to that, and that's not. I mean, Kyle Pitts is a new offense, a new quarterback.

[00:37:46]

Yards as a rookie?

[00:37:47]

Yeah, a thousand.

[00:37:50]

But he couldn't turn left last year. You know, I mean, saw that in his film. Like he was still struggling with the knee. So if, if he's fully zoolandered.

[00:38:00]

Yeah, he is.

[00:38:01]

So if he's fully healthy, he had.

[00:38:04]

He had fewer yards the last two years combined, then his rookie season.

[00:38:08]

Yeah. And you, you really felt it. You saw he didn't look that great.

[00:38:13]

I can't turn left.

[00:38:16]

We're still hung up on and I guess I just don't know if it's rightfully hung up. Like he is not yet 24 years old. This is a young, young player who genuinely is the best tight end prospect I've ever seen.

[00:38:30]

Who among us wouldn't want to be the one that drafted him and got what you wanted?

[00:38:34]

Oh, man.

[00:38:34]

That's what the tantalizing prospect of Kyle Pitts is.

[00:38:38]

He could be a league winner for where he's going. He's being drafted, you know, as whatever the. Is he really being drafted as the Titan six?

[00:38:45]

Yeah, he is. And right now we all have him below that. We have him at seven. I have him at seven, Mike at a, Jason at nine. But I would like to pay the Na Joker price. I would be comfortable with that risk.

[00:38:58]

He's looking back just trying to remember, I know injuries play into it, but as a rookie, he had, he had Matt Ryan, he had a great quarterback, and then he's had just pure trash.

[00:39:13]

If you watched Desmond Ritter play preseason football, you, you might not know how trash it was, but it was trash.

[00:39:19]

And Kirk, it comes down to Kirk Cousins and your belief in the recovery of his Achilles and the new coaching philosophy that I. Kyle Pitts is a very difficult player because the, the emotional destruction of the last two years from Kyle Pitts has been immense. But he is Ikea. You want to find athleticism in a tight end, you're not going to find more than Kyle Pitts.

[00:39:46]

And you ask about the offense and the pecking order because usually to be a very good, a high end tight end that is great for fantasy, you have to be either the number one target for the office or the number two target for the office. It doesn't work if you're beyond that.

[00:39:59]

And he's scared of Darnell Mooney.

[00:40:00]

That, that's the thing is like, who's the number two target in, in this office? Obviously it's Drake London number one. And then it very well could be Kaupitz. He, he can achieve that role, whereas you know that, that's where when we talk about Kittle a little harder because of all the people in front of him, I. You know, if pits were to slide in a draft, if you're in a draft where nobody is a believer and he's fallen to the 8th round, I will take a shot because I see the path for high, high upside. But I'm, I'm passing by him and I mean, I haven't, I have zero shares of him right now in the fifth round.

[00:40:30]

Speaker.

[00:40:30]

Zero. This price is not, I'm not doing it.

[00:40:32]

Wait, so if I'm. Kyle Pitts is being drafted before George Kittle?

[00:40:37]

Yeah. And that's.

[00:40:37]

No, no, no, no.

[00:40:40]

That's incorrect. Is that what you're going to say? Yeah.

[00:40:41]

No, that's just flat out wrong.

[00:40:43]

Yeah.

[00:40:44]

All right. Well, we'll take a break and talk about George Kittle in a minute. All right. You guys just reacted to the fact that our number seven tight end is being drafted behind Kyle Pitts.

[00:41:00]

Number seven.

[00:41:02]

This is a travesty.

[00:41:03]

That'd be George Kittle.

[00:41:04]

I draft him before cup hits.

[00:41:06]

Yeah. Mike has him at five. Jason at seven. I'm at nine.

[00:41:09]

I'm moving him up.

[00:41:10]

We all have, we're all want, we all want the dust to settle. Now. You could move them up and then Iook stays and then your opinion will revert.

[00:41:19]

It isn't, it's actually the next tight end. We're going to talk about that. I would personally much rather have kittle over who we currently have at six. So.

[00:41:31]

Yeah. Okay.

[00:41:32]

We'll get there.

[00:41:33]

I mean, just lump them together then.

[00:41:36]

Yeah. Number six.

[00:41:38]

Number six.

[00:41:40]

Evan Ingram. We can talk about them both at the same time.

[00:41:42]

Yeah.

[00:41:43]

So I have higher. We.

[00:41:46]

I believe we've got him as the mark of the beast. I believe we all have him at tight end. Six.

[00:41:51]

Which is how many mark of the beast references do you try to get into a show?

[00:41:55]

Favorite. However, seeing the beast, he's everywhere. If I see it, I say it.

[00:42:02]

I call it out.

[00:42:03]

See something, say something. Okay.

[00:42:06]

Even when it has to do with the beast.

[00:42:08]

Look, I was only a piece of it, okay? I'm only one of the six.

[00:42:13]

You were gonna change.

[00:42:14]

I am. I'm changing. So he's no longer gonna be mark of the beast.

[00:42:18]

Actually tracking it.

[00:42:20]

Kyle made that. Made that up.

[00:42:21]

Okay.

[00:42:22]

All right.

[00:42:22]

Kyle said 39 times, don't do that guy.

[00:42:25]

When you say stuff. I believe it.

[00:42:26]

Let us know when he hits 666 on the references.

[00:42:30]

The mark of the beast squared.

[00:42:34]

Okay. So George. George Kittle and Evan Ingram. Let's talk about those two guys and whether they should be drafted in that higher range area. Here's the thing with George Kittle. George Kittle, I always want to say he's going to be inconsistent because his lows are low. When, you know, when they have a game plan that is not his. He can go out there and score 1.4 fantasy points, 0.6 fantasy points, 3.4. Like, he'll just. He's not. He's a blocker, that game. But also, he is unbelievably great. And if you look back at the last three years, he's been the tight end for the tight end three. The tight in five. Top five all three years. And then you do have the built in. Like, maybe Brandon Ayuk does get traded.

[00:43:18]

I'm in the opposite camp for sure. I want slow and steady. Give me the tortoise. Evan Ingram was the tight end two last year. They lose Calvin Ridley. They don't know what they have in Brian Thomas yet. They don't have Zay Jones. I am all about getting the steadiness of Evan Ingram as opposed to the occasional Superman performances from George Kittle. Kittle had three times last year. He's the number one overall in a week. That's not Evan Ingram's game normally, but the volume is just outrageous. So I am on the Ingram side. Mike, how do you weigh it?

[00:43:54]

I have, kiddo, just one. One spot ahead of because I don't have the numbers in front of me. I will see if we can pull those up. Jason, is that your phone?

[00:44:05]

No. What was what? My phone mic.

[00:44:13]

I couldn't let that one go. It was too long.

[00:44:16]

Some other shows may edit, some other shows may hideous. But we. Shame here on the fantasy footballer.

[00:44:23]

No idea what you're talking about.

[00:44:26]

And why is your laptop ringing? Why do you have your laptop set to ring?

[00:44:31]

Like, I don't know how to make my laptop stop calling when I get a phone call comes through my laptop. How do I turn?

[00:44:37]

Do you pick it up and hold it up like a phone?

[00:44:40]

Hello, I'm into cinema. Hello? Oh, man. Yeah. No. Someone after the show show me how to turn that feature off of my laptop. It's so stupid. Why do you do that? Apple? Why do you. No one wants to answer a phone call on their laptop.

[00:44:57]

We always say if somebody doesn't mute something. Yeah. Sound comes through that. You get slimed. Like Nickelodeon. Like, it drops from the rafters. Like, if we had that, it would be great. That would be so fantastic.

[00:45:08]

What I was gonna bring up was like, since Brock Purdy has been the quarterback. Like, George Kittle had a couple games, of course, last year, but he was. Let's see what's his. He's a b. And consistency for us.

[00:45:23]

Same as Evan Ingram, despite all those targets.

[00:45:25]

And. And the. His upside is just. It's greater than Evan Ingram. Ingram is not a touchdown guy. That's just. It's not part of it. And the concerns of when he went turbo over the lat over the second half of last year, talking about Evan Ingram, it aligned perfectly with when Christian Kirk missed time, because Kirk can take those underneath routes as well. So that. That's where the tiebreaker look.

[00:45:48]

It's.

[00:45:48]

I like sense if you're in a PPR.

[00:45:50]

No, you have historically hated him, and I've always loved it. Oh, that's.

[00:45:54]

Dare you?

[00:45:56]

That's exactly. If you go back to the archives mute, and then play them on mute.

[00:46:00]

You will hear that just under 40% of Evan Ingram's total points last year came in three games. He had that outrageously high 27 point game where he had the multiple touchdowns. You know, he. He basically had three monstrous weeks. But he had a lot of that season where he was un. He was just not that great for fantasy.

[00:46:25]

It's fair. I mean, he had. It's a really weird situation between the two, because he almost. He literally almost doubled George Kittles receptions. Like kittles at 65, Ingram was at 114. And yet, you're right. I mean, it is a different recipe. And maybe. Maybe the steadiness of Ingram is not what you're looking for. It just depends on, like, what's the draft cost difference? It's about a round different. Like, if Ingram slipped into the 7th round, and I can get that instead of paying for Kittle. That's just my personal.

[00:46:56]

These names are why I think it's important in for the Folklan out there. I think you should get one of the next five. We're talking.

[00:47:04]

And just real quick, too, because Evan did finish as the. The tight end, two in a half point scoring format with 173 points. Georgie Porgy was tight in five with 170 points. And he didn't play in week 18 like Georgie Porgy. I mean, it's. If Kittle had played the final week of the season and given one of his vintage garbage performances, he probably would have finished as the tight end too.

[00:47:28]

Well. And not only that, but Evan Ingram in that final week. Wasn't that the week? Oh, yeah.

[00:47:32]

They were going for the record.

[00:47:33]

They were manufacturing him, trying to get him the record. So a lot of his fantasy points when he was the tight end won that week were like, look, I will.

[00:47:40]

Not stand for this Ingram horse garbage.

[00:47:46]

Time is a flat circle.

[00:47:47]

It is number five.

[00:47:49]

All right, we're going to blitz these top five. Cause you know the names and just say something interesting them, and we'll go through them. Dalton Kincaid comes in at number five. Four for Jason and I, Mike at seven. There are a lot of questions in the offense in terms of what?

[00:48:05]

Are you eyeing my number seven?

[00:48:08]

Yes, I am.

[00:48:09]

He's. He's looking down upon you with his haughty eyes.

[00:48:14]

I do not. I. Unless George Kittle has an outlier touchdown season, I don't see these five not finishing these five, barring injury, like, they're. They're established to me. It's a huge tier.

[00:48:26]

Do you see what he sees?

[00:48:28]

No, Mike does not.

[00:48:29]

I think that kiddle is fine or not, kiddo. I'm sorry. Dalton Kincaid is like, the ADP is fine. If you want to take the chance that he really is the number one guy for. For Josh Allen, then he will pay off massively. But if he just is, you know, kind of the mixed in and he's sort of the leader of the passing attack, and then it will just be an okay pick.

[00:48:53]

Number four.

[00:48:54]

He's on the. He's on the back wall today. Trey McBride comes in at number four. He is my number three tight end. Jason's five, and Mike's number one overall tight end for.

[00:49:03]

We ride for McBride.

[00:49:05]

You are on the Trey Mc ride. It was such an impressive into the season for Trey McBride. Ended the year 81 for 825 and three didn't have target competition in the offense. He does now across, you know, second year of Michael Wilson and then obviously, Marvin Harrison and Zay Jones and the human torch. But McBride has got his role in this offense. It's just a matter of how high will he go.

[00:49:37]

Yep. And one is a very aggressive projection and ranking for Trey McBride. I will not.

[00:49:44]

I will not grasp as a ranking can get.

[00:49:46]

Yeah, like, I'm not going to say that it's. It's not a. Like, they're not a lock, like. Yeah, for sure, but it's just. That's where my numbers ended up, because, look, he was. He came through to be the player that they thought they had drafted. It just took a little bit of time, as it does for most tight ends. Last year, he was second among tight ends and yards per route. Run was getting a huge target share. Yeah. If Marv eats into the target share. That's fine because the offense will be better. Far more scoring opportunities, far more opportunities for actual red zone targets. And like they designed screens for the guy. This he is, he is a full, well rounded pass catcher who is not just I'm going to catch it and fall down, so I'm going to make a really strong, aggressive catch and then I'm going to try and yak from weeks ten on.

[00:50:36]

Which are the, the Kyler Murray weeks last year, obviously. No, no Marv there yet, but he was on a 17 game pace with Kyler of 112 receptions. That is outland close to Ingram, except the athleticism and the tackle breaking ability to do something with it.

[00:50:55]

There's another stray just this has worked it in, sworked it in. All right, so McBride at four, number three. Andrews comes in at three. Jason and Mike have met two. I got him at five. Right now, it's just a little bit of a lack of confidence on the week to week of what Baltimore's offense is going to be. But Andrews has been as consistent like it's other than saying that this guy's dealt with injury, which, which has happened, it's. You can't really hold any argument against him from a consistency standpoint. Even in the games he played last year, he didn't take a hit on yards per reception. He was still involved. He's always been a touchdown score. He's going to be a go to player around the end zone and they don't have anybody else.

[00:51:38]

So he has hit since the breakout of year two for Mark Andrews. He's posted double digit points per game in every single season like he is. Maybe he's five, but like Andrews feels locked in. The only thing that can take Andrews out of this is injury.

[00:51:55]

Yeah, if he's on the field, he's in your lineup and scoring you ten plus points. That's, that's very rare at the tight end position.

[00:52:02]

Number two, last year's impressive, shocking, breaking Jason's brain. Rookie Sam Laporta, who finished at number one, comes in at number two on our rankings. I've got him at two. Jason and Mike both at three most receptions as a rookie tide gronk for the most rookie receiving tight ends, second most tight end first down, second most routes run ever among rookie tight ends. And one thing I'll bring up about La Porta and his chance to repeat because that is the, the big concern is touchdown regression, which could happen. I mean, it probably probabilistically, it probabilistically, that is correct. It should.

[00:52:45]

You don't need to say just probably.

[00:52:48]

Probably, but he's trying to get probability in there.

[00:52:51]

Oh, standing by it.

[00:52:53]

I don't mind.

[00:52:54]

You're standing by probabilistically.

[00:52:56]

Yeah.

[00:52:56]

I stand by it because I know what he means. So it's a word.

[00:52:59]

Yeah. That's not. If I had said probably that, you would not know what I meant.

[00:53:02]

That's weak.

[00:53:03]

I'm saying based on probabilities.

[00:53:06]

Probabilistically is.

[00:53:07]

Can I get, can I play with math? Can we get the deucers to weigh in here? Al, it's a word. They know it is in a way. You hit the check.

[00:53:15]

Oh, I got. I don't even have the check anymore.

[00:53:18]

Yeah. Let's go ahead and.

[00:53:19]

There we go.

[00:53:20]

I got you. Yeah. I was just using English, Jay.

[00:53:23]

It's a real word.

[00:53:24]

Yeah.

[00:53:25]

Probabilistically.

[00:53:27]

Yeah. Because Mike knew exactly what I was.

[00:53:28]

Talking about in a way, based on or relates to how likely it is that something will happen.

[00:53:33]

It's probably with math in it.

[00:53:37]

Probabilistically. That's amazing, isn't it?

[00:53:41]

It's a mouthful.

[00:53:42]

Yes.

[00:53:42]

Especially with a fake tooth.

[00:53:44]

Oh, man. Eat it, Jason.

[00:53:47]

Here's the, here's what I was going to get to, because we've talked a lot about these players. The new insight on the porta, to me is the fact that there's still reports from camp that they don't have enough in the receiving game.

[00:53:58]

Yeah.

[00:53:59]

That losing Josh Reynolds is going to be a bigger blow than they expect. That Jameson Williams, he's explosive, but he is not a possession receiver. And so I think Sam Laporter, like, the office doesn't function without him. Like, it just doesn't like what made them great last year. Washington, very, very much connected to what Sam Laporta offers the offense. And. And there was nothing that you saw that was unrepeatable to me. Like, you know, Rob Gronkowski probabilistically should not have scored double digit touchdowns as many times as he did. But sometimes I feel like that one.

[00:54:31]

Should have been probably that wasn't. There was no man, no, stay still.

[00:54:34]

The same. There was math in there. The problem is, is that now that's a different word. Problem is another. It starts same letters but different meaning. Gronk went from ten to 15 sometimes. He went from ten to 13 sometimes. So I just don't want to undermine what Laporta did, like punish him for doing, for breaking records and then saying he's not an outlier. Like that is kind of what happens. You get tight ends that become touchdown machines. And you know, I wouldn't want to bet a significant amount of money against Laporta scoring double digits.

[00:55:10]

The problem statistically that I have.

[00:55:14]

Yeah.

[00:55:15]

Is that he had ten touchdowns on 889 yards over the last decade. Every single tight end with ten touchdowns on fewer than 900 yards regressed in touchdown department. All of them. And not like they went from ten to nine and not like bums. We're talking about Antonio Gates, Jimmy Graham multiple times, Mark Andrews, George Kittle. And they've gone from twelve to 512 to 510 to 211 to two. Like these are. So it's just like I worry because of his utilization. I think he's, he's a great player. He's super involved in the offense. He is going to be a very good fantasy asset. However, he's often the first tight end drafted off the board. And I think the touchdown regression based on his utilization and his expectation, that has me scared at the cost that he won't pay off there because where he's being drafted are obviously the best wide receivers and running backs that you're going to have to sacrifice for a tight end speaker.

[00:56:13]

Two, what was the stat at the top of the tight end section?

[00:56:16]

It was just the success.

[00:56:18]

One through three, they hit, they finished.

[00:56:21]

In the top 560 percent. Was it 60?

[00:56:24]

So you just. Yeah, it's 60%. Yeah, they finished top five.

[00:56:27]

Yeah, it's, it's a good bet. The, I'm not betting against Laporta for the season. I'm just, I'm betting against his ADP of being the first guy drafted often in the second round. Like if he finishes, if he finishes as the three where you had to draft him, that will feel, I think it'll feel fine. I think it'll be disappointing.

[00:56:49]

Travis Kelsey, number one. Man, it's been a long, long run for Travis Kelsey. 781-1213 so if you want an case of a guy finishing at three being disappointing, look no further than what happened to you at Travis Kelsey last.

[00:57:11]

Right.

[00:57:11]

But he was also a field lapper historically, and that was what you felt as well.

[00:57:15]

And he was like the fifth pick in the draft.

[00:57:17]

Yes. Yeah. And the port is going where?

[00:57:20]

Second.

[00:57:21]

Three oh one.

[00:57:21]

Yeah. Early third. Late second.

[00:57:24]

Yeah, I look, I'm okay. I'm okay with that.

[00:57:28]

With the Laporte ADP.

[00:57:30]

I'm okay with it.

[00:57:30]

Okay.

[00:57:31]

I wasn't okay in the second. I'm okay if it's somewhere in the third. Kelsey's at 03:02. You know, those guys are back to.

[00:57:37]

Back I mean, yeah, on a, on a per game basis, not a first round pick. Sam Laporta was, over the course of the season, was the tight end one, but Travis Kelsey, on a per game basis, was the tight end one. So, yeah, yeah, tied. So he's right there with him. And I do think that there is positive regression coming for the kids, the Kansas City Chiefs offense, into just the total touchdowns scored offensively. That will obviously be a lot to do with Travis Kelsey. You know, he might be a better value this year than he was last year, even if he finishes worse this year than he does last year, which I expect. I expect him to not be as good as he was last year, to still be outstanding. So it's just a matter of, for me, I like these top five guys. I think all five could have a case to finish as a number one tight end. So I'm going to take those second and third round wide receivers, and in the fourth, 5th round, I'm going to try to grab the value of, of one of those, you know, top guys.

[00:58:37]

That. One of those guys that. That's just my personal strategy. The. The Dalton Kincaida, Mark Andrews, and Trey McBride. I think they're the best values that are still good because we haven't had this opportunity in recent years. In recent years. It's like there's one or two guys, and then you've got to punt the position forever. I think there's enough guys where those middle rounds, the higher middle rounds, the fourth and fifth. You, you've got. You've got security there, and you're not sacrificing the same running back or wide receiver that you are elsewhere.

[00:59:07]

Andy, for Sam Laporta, cuz you're cool with the AdP. Let's say you're at 208. And so, I mean, ADP wise, you're not slotted for him. And the chance of him actually rounding the turn and coming back to you at that point is very low. So if you like, if you're there and you want.

[00:59:27]

I would gamble only on the him coming back.

[00:59:29]

Okay.

[00:59:30]

Yeah.

[00:59:30]

You wouldn't force the.

[00:59:31]

Yeah, I'm not gonna force the issue. And to Jason's point, like, you do have security and more than one name, which is also why, you know, if those three through five guys didn't exist, I don't think. I don't think Kelsey and Laporte are going in the third round. Yeah, I think the demand for them supply to be because of the differential would be higher. I mean, Kelsey, in the first round, you had to I mean, talk about expectation differences between, you know, 105 and 305. That is a big gap in what you need from this.

[01:00:03]

Yeah.

[01:00:03]

You had two years ago in, I mean, 2022. Travis Kelsey was over 15 points a game and he finished this year at eleven and a half, which in points, Green was tied for number one. Like that's.

[01:00:16]

I can't wait to see what happens.

[01:00:18]

That's a shakeup of the whole tight end market.

[01:00:20]

One thing I will say in favor of Sam Laporta, and it's worth noting, the UDK we talked about how much change over there is defensively. You don't always know that last year, teams that are bad at tight end are going to be bad at tight end this year. They might have solved for that. That being said, it's still a useful tool to look at for the first three weeks because if you are going to stream the position, look for some guys later. But the combination of the questionable hamstring right now with Jamir Gibbs and the Detroit Lions have the second easiest first three games. You could draft Laporte and get off to a really hot start that way. And if you want to just throw out some of the other names of the first three weeks, hot starts for the, you know, your last round type of pick. Number one is Pittsburgh Steelers. So that's Pat Friarmuth, number three. You three, you've got the Patriots with Hunter Henry.

[01:01:12]

Do you have, do you guys have any. Okay, you listed those guys off, but do you have any such 10th round plus tight ends that you are looking at that you feel like can sneak in? Maybe not 25, but I would say.

[01:01:27]

Those two guys and then dart throw. So it's. So don't even bring it here.

[01:01:33]

No, no.

[01:01:34]

You want to save it for the.

[01:01:34]

My guy Greg Dulcich. Okay. I think he could. He also has a top five schedule in those first three weeks, and that's.

[01:01:43]

A team that has not a lot of answers at the wide receiver position, which is something you're looking for.

[01:01:49]

Also, Greg Dulcich is a tight end for the Denver Broncos. If you don't remember who Greg Dulcie.

[01:01:54]

I'll just say one name that I think could.

[01:01:57]

It might be the name.

[01:01:58]

It's Brock Bowers.

[01:01:59]

Oh, okay.

[01:01:59]

Brock Bowers is like, when you talk about he's a 7th rounder or later and, and, or earlier.

[01:02:11]

I mean, he's not making it that far. I.

[01:02:14]

Okay, 710. All right.

[01:02:16]

I was talking about like full on punts.

[01:02:19]

No, I'm bringing his name up because I didn't want to ignore it on the top ten. Tight intro. Um, I do think that there's great potential for Brock Bowers to line up as a wide receiver almost every play and, and be a constant threat down the field. And, and so I just, you know, he's nine oh nine on ESPN.

[01:02:35]

Yeah.

[01:02:36]

Jason even find me a higher one.

[01:02:38]

I'm just saying he could go either way.

[01:02:40]

So depending on your platform.

[01:02:41]

But like pits versus Bowers? That's crazy to me. That's crazy.

[01:02:45]

Really?

[01:02:45]

Why do I want to go on the pits? Right.

[01:02:48]

Okay, let me make the argument for you right now. You're talking about not rookie tight end, who, historically, tight ends, even the greatest, aren't great. They're rookie year with the sole exception of Sam Laporta and maybe Evan Ingram, if you want to throw that out there or go all the way back to Jeremy Shockey and then Dalton King.

[01:03:04]

Kay's performance last year would outperform Pitts.

[01:03:05]

But also, also, you're talking about the quarterback position of Gardner Minshew and Aiden O'Connell throwing behind Devontae Adams versus.

[01:03:17]

Yeah, you can have pits, dude. Oh, yeah, he's yours.

[01:03:21]

Pitts versus Bowers.

[01:03:22]

Oh, yeah.

[01:03:23]

He's all your pits versus Bowers. Bet. Oh.

[01:03:26]

So how much, how much money you want?

[01:03:28]

1000.

[01:03:31]

Water bed.

[01:03:32]

Yeah, we'll figure out that.

[01:03:35]

I said, speaking of platform, and this is, I have to say this, I have to choke through the humility of taste. Hill needs to be on people's radar. It's, it's awful. I hate it. I hate everything about it. Josh is back there celebrating because he's a saints fan, but Dennis the menace loves taste of hill.

[01:03:59]

Everybody who's ever met him and loves, I don't know what it is, but everybody loves Jason Hill.

[01:04:05]

He just must be.

[01:04:06]

He can bench a lot and freakin squad a lot. Yeah. Pick up the udk@ultimatedraftkid.com chance for the UDK for Life Friday live stream and then tickets going fast. There are a few lower level seats remaining at ballers live.com. if you want to come see us in Los Angeles two weeks, less than two weeks away, presented by our friends at sleeper, we'll be doing some giveaways. It's going to be our 10th anniversary celebration, a chance to see the show live, take part in a q and A. And it's going to be a big, big time party. So you're going to love it. Ballerslive.com grab some tickets while there's a few remaining. That is going to do it for today's episode of the podcast. But don't worry, we're going to do another one tomorrow and the day after that, and the day after that.

[01:05:05]

See you then. Goodbye.

[01:05:10]

Thank you for listening to another episode of the Fantasy Footballers podcast. Join our fantasy football community on jointhefoot.com and follow us on Twitter heffbollers.