Armando Salgaro, the Senior NFL writer at outkick. Com, here with us on The Will Caine Show. What's up, Armando?

What up, Will? It's good to see you, sir.

It's good to see you as well. I want to play a little game with you today. I want to play Spin the Roulette Wheel on NFL quarterbacks. We're on the verge of NFL free agency, which starts early next week. And there's, I think, some very interesting names. Now, that being said, interesting, but have already had their names run around the wheel at least once in the NFL. And we have a handful of teams who seem a little bit out of the NFL draft sweepstakes of the top three quarterbacks, and will find themselves looking for someone who's already had one spin at one team in the NFL. So let's just start broadly, and then I'll narrow in on some players. But do you have some predictions for us on where Kirk Cousins, Justin Fields, and other quarterbacks like Baker Mayfield will end up in the NFL?

Well, I think the The easy one is Baker Mayfield. I think he ends up in Tampa Bay because right now they have exclusive rights to speak with him and negotiate with him, and they have every intention of resigning him. They loved him not only on the field, but in the locker room last year, Will. And so they want to get something done before Monday, which is when the negotiating period, at which point other teams can jump in and start talking to Baker Mayfield's agent. They want to get in before that, get it done before that, and close the door on Baker Mayfield.

And what about guys like Fields and Cousins? Where do you think they end up?

Yeah. The trio that are super weird and super interesting at the same time are, like you mentioned, Justin Fields, Kirk Cousin, and now Russell Wilson, right? Because everyone knows he's going to be a free agent. And as a matter of fact, he's a free agent right now because the Denver Broncos have given him permission to speak with team starting right now. The permission goes as far as he can visit teams right now, which if you put two and two together, the agent is asking not just for permission, but the permission to visit. That tells me he's got something up his sleeve and he'll be visiting somewhere. Those three guys are really the most interesting guys.

And so Russell Wilson, let's talk about him for just one moment. What do you think the market's like for Russell Wilson? I mean, this is a guy that four or five years ago was in the debate for best quarterback in the NFL, talked about when it comes to MVP, at times was considered a great leader in the NFL. Now, I talked to Michelle Toffoy a little bit about this earlier this week on the Will Caine show. It's not just his quarterback skills, but his reputation are not solid. He's not seen as the same leader, much less same quarterback. So does he have a starting job next year in the NFL?

I believe he does. But it's a niche in that it's not a team that's going to commit to him for four years. He's 35 years old. For four or five years, that's not the commitment any team is going to make. Russell is more like a one to two year bridge starter. I think that he is going to land a job because he comes with an added value, and that is he's got 39 $9 million in the bank already for 2024, which the Denver Broncos are going to pay. So he can give his next team something of a discount that first year and come in and play and work and be around the team and earn his keep for the following year. So it's going to be a trade off for Russell. He's going to offer that first year, Look, I'm going to be cheap the first year, but you can't do me with the two-year deal and I'm out of here. And now I'm on the street at 37 looking for a job deal.

So he gets to double up. I've wondered that about NFL contracts. I know that if you've got guaranteed money, it's guaranteed. But I went I know law school. I know how contract law works. If you and I have a contract and you break that contract and it hurts me financially, if I replace whatever I had with you, it's usually in contract law, certainly if it goes to a suit, offset. So in other words, if I was guaranteed to make 39 million with you, but I signed with somebody else for 15 million, you're only on the hook for the difference. You're on hook for the $24 million difference. But that's not the way for Wilson. He'll double up. He'll make the 39 from Denver. And let's say he doesn't take a discount. Let's say he gets 20 from somebody. He makes $59 million next year?

No. The Denver Broncos do get the offset. So Anything over 39... He's got the 39 million, but once he signs a contract, you start to subtract from that 39 million. That's why I'm saying he is obviously going to help his next team with a minimum salary deal. But at the moment that he starts to collect from his new team, that next team is paying less.

So he's guaranteed to make 39 million next year. He won't make less. It's just a matter of how much the Broncos have to pay of that 39 million. Okay, that makes sense to me.

But what about the- And I guess, by the way, my guess is The Denver Broncos cut me. They benched me last year. They embarrassed me. They didn't say nice things about me. Am I going to make them bleed a little bit? Yeah, I'm going to make them bleed a little bit. That's, I believe, what's going on in the Russell Wilson camp.

And he will make more than 39 million from somebody else, so he doesn't care. What's it matter to him if he takes a $1 million deal or a $20 million deal? That's to be worked out between the teams. I get your point. Yeah, let's punish them and take a way below market deal. What about Fields and Cousins? In the beginning, it looked... It seemed most obvious that the bears are going to take Caleb Williams items, number one overall in the NFL draft, quarterback from USA. And that puts Justin Fields on the trade market. And then the primary team that was discussed was the Atlanta Falcons. But everything that I'm hearing now, and by the way, I think the Falcons are picking at nine, so that puts them out reach of probably Drake May and Jaden Daniels as well. So either they love JJ McCarthy from Michigan or they trade or sign someone in free agency. And in the beginning, it seemed like, okay, maybe they trade for Justin Fields, and that may cost you a fourth round pick, maybe a third round pick. But now everything I'm hearing, Armando, is that they might actually go after Kirk Cousins in free agency.

Right, which makes a whole lot more sense. Look, Kirk Cousins is more accomplished. He is not Not elite by any measure, but he's pretty darn close as you can get without actually being there. At least that's what his stats say. The film, you can argue with that one way or the other. Justin Fields is nowhere near that. Justin Fields is a developmental player. He is a project. And though he comes with great gifts, he can run around, he's very athletic, he's got a high ceiling, he hasn't really done anything in the NFL. And the problem is he's on an expiring contract. So do you trade for Justin Fields that has one year left on your contract and hope that you can Develop them like gangbusters to the point where you're resigning him to another contract at the end of the year? That's not exactly what I would call a great situation for a team to dive into. He is going to be, like you said, a mid-round draft pick type of guy, and then we'll see. But I don't think that the team that picks him up is going to say, he's our guy. We're committed to him because you don't commit to developmental players.

So who fits that profile? What team for Justin Fields?

Yeah, it's Obviously, I think it's a team that perhaps has an older quarterback, a team that has an older quarterback that may be durability questions, durability issues. Last year, the team that fit the profile for that type of player was the Dallas Cowboys. They went out and got Trey Lance. It isn't going to necessarily be a team that doesn't have somewhat of an answer. Maybe New England because they're going to find another quarterback and they're going to draft the quarterback. Maybe the Commanders because they They got a guy and they're going to draft a guy, and maybe Justin Fields comes in there on a lark. Someone that already has someone. That's the thing.

I disagree with you about last year with the Cowboys. I'm going to tell you why, because it's actually the next topic I want to talk to you about. So everyone was shocked when the Cowboys traded for Trey Lance from the 49ers. Because, well, first of all, Dax is not old. He was 30 when they did it. Now he's 31, which is not old in quarterback terms. So it never made sense. They have a guy they like in the backup quarterback in Cooper Rush. So it was odd. And same situation with Trey Lance, with the contract, it's like, how do you develop him and how do you know before you have to pay the guy? But I liked a little bit of what Jerry Jones did in in that it cost him a fourth-round pick. He bought a lotto ticket with Trey Lance. And Armando, I believe in the lotto ticket. Meaning there seems to be a lot of these guys now who the league in one moment thinks so highly enough to draft in the top five, maybe the top 10. And then they go to often bad situations. And then, that's not the case with Trey Lance, but he just got beat out.

But it's the case with, say, Zack Wilson or Baker Mayfield originally. And then there are these reclamation projects, and there's a lot of them. There's Sam Darnold, there is Zack Wilson, there's Trey Lance. I'm fascinated, Armando, by the lotto ticket guy. Can't you now get some of these guys on relatively cheap trade value, relatively cheap contracts, and put them in a better situation? There's at least... Same thing with Justin Fields. Some hope that the ceiling is what you thought it was when you took him in the top five. Put him in a better developmental situation. If I'm a team, I'm interested in what did Sam Darnold learn in San Francisco. I'm interested in what does Zack Wilson look like after a year in San Francisco, whatever. I'm What's the interest in the lotto ticket.

So let's do the exercise. Outside of maybe, maybe, Baker Mayfield, what lotto ticket has hit?

Because- It's a good point.

I'm wondering, Sam Well, no. Trey Lance? Well, obviously, he hasn't had a chance. But did he beat out Cooper Rush? No. I don't know a lot of... Josh Rosen didn't. I can tell you, Zack Wilson won't. I can tell you that.

I'm just wondering- Ria, he's done?

There has to be a comparable. Who has actually come out of that lotto ticket thing and gone, We're smarter than everybody.

Well, I'm racking my brain. Has there not been a guy, the minute you changed his developmental situation, it changed the equation for you? I'm just not good right now thinking with a blank page. There's got to be. Come on, Armando. There's got to be.

This one guy that I would say to you fits that profile, but it was a perfect situation in that he was able to remain with the same team, with the same surroundings, with the same knowledge of what was going on and the people who picked them who still believed in him, and that's to a tongue of my law. When he got a new head coach who loved him as opposed to Brian Flores, the previous head coach who didn't love him, he blossomed a little bit and he developed, not to the great heights that the dolphins want yet, but they still think he has a ceiling. But again, he had these other factors helping him belong in that the general manager believed in him, the owner believed in him. He was going to get to play, and what he needed was that new scheme, that new system, that new offensive mentor.

How much do they believe in Tua in Miami? If you think there's a ceiling to him, do you pay him? This is his opt-in year. They'll probably pick up that fifth-year option. He's played well enough for that. But then do you give him a contract where he... I don't know what he'd make, $45 million a year? I mean, who knows? I heard some guys talking the other day on sports radio about, of all the angst about Dak, if he actually became a free agent next year, what would he get paid? Like 50 million for sure. There'd be a team that would pay an NFL MVP candidate, which he was and has been, 50 million. So a guy like Tua, what's he going to make? 40? And will the Dolphins pay that?

He's going to make way more than 40. He's going to be in the 50 Club, based on what I heard at the NFL Combine. And is he going to be in the 50 Club to the extent that he's challenging Joe Burrow or Justin Herbert or those guys who are 56, 55, 55, 2, something like that? No. But the problem that the Dolphins face is that they have a quarterback on an expiring contract who isn't all there yet, but he's on an expiring contract. If you let him go to the end of the season like he did last year, it's going to be more expensive. And his agent just might say, Thank you. We're going to go to market. And at that point, if he performed last year, we're not talking 50, we're talking 57, 58, 59 a year. So they're going to pay. And another reason The reason they're going to pay is the salary cap went up precipitously this year by some... What was it? From 228 or something to 255. It was like a 13% rise. Guys. And guess what agents are doing now in their contract talks for their coming free agents?

They're raising their price by 13%. See how that It works. So what Tua might have been a 42, 45, whatever million per year guy, now he's 50.

So the Dolphins will try to get a deal done with him early at discount is what they're going to try to do. I don't know, a longer deal. I don't know what the number will be. Maybe it is 50, but they're going to try to avoid the situation of him being a $57 million quarterback. But they've seen enough. They'll do a deal early with Tua?

They haven't seen enough, but they've seen enough of the market, and they know how it works. It rarely goes down. If Tua doesn't play to the level of, say, even last year or the last two years, that would be surprising to them. Internally, what they think is Tua's ceiling has not been reached yet. He's going to get better, and they plan to put a better offensive line there in front of him because they're going to remake the whole offensive line. So they're paying for the prospect of what Tua is going to be rather than what Tua has been.

All right. I've thought of one obvious lotto ticket, one less obvious, but they're much older. Steve Young traded from the Bucks to the Niners. I don't know how much he had shown in Tampa for them to believe him. He went and became a backup to Joe Montana. But the most obvious lotto ticket that succeeded is Brett F I mean, they didn't think he was going to be who ended up being in Atlanta. Change of scenery, change of lifestyle. A lot of things changed for Brett Favre, but then he becomes a Hall of Famer.

Fair. The 1970s, 1970s, and just called and said, Hey, this doesn't happen anymore. But we were awesome back in the day.

Now- Armando, do you think that NFL So explain this to me. Nfl teams are so good at evaluating a quarterback inside their building that they can know within a year or two, Well, not this guy's a bust. But that same institutional knowledge doesn't apply to evaluating a college quarterback. They're still not any better at projecting who's going to be a bust and who's going to be a success coming out of college. But they all of a sudden have all the things they need to know a year or two after a guy's inside the building about his ceiling.

Actually, I would tell you that NFL teams are terrible at evaluating quarterbacks there, like 50 % in the first round.

Yeah, that's my point. That's my point to draft. But that should encourage the lotto ticket idea. Maybe you're not so good at knowing what you actually have as well.

Right. But there's this, I'm not going to say groupthink, but there's a little bit of groupthink. And when a player, say, like a Josh Rosen, who was the 10th overall pick in the draft in, I think, 2019. When he fails in Arizona, okay, another team is going to go out there and say, We can do something with that. Then he fails with his second team, and now everybody's going, Wait a second now. He's failed with one team, he's failed with another team. We didn't like him in the draft. We're staying away. There will be teams that still like them in the draft and go, Okay, let's take a runner on him, but we're not expecting him to be great. He's the lotto ticket guy. We're going to minimize our resources that use on him, and we better have not a backup plan, but a plan A and let him be the backup plan. That's what typically happens. Trey Lance was the number three pick in the draft, and He's the third quarterback in Dallas.

Well, hopefully there is some hope that he at least beats out Cooper Rush this year. I'm excited about the lotto ticket that is Trey Lance. Let's see. Jerry is always pumping sunshine, but it sounds like things are going well with Trey Lance behind the scenes. Okay, so you don't like Zack Wilson. Russell Wilson ends up with a job. Justin Fields gets a mid-round trade pick. Kirk Cousins signs in Atlanta, and there's your quarterback Carousel Will. Baker Mayfield resigns in Tampa.

Yeah, I think also Russell Wilson, Las Vegas feels like a possibility for Russell Wilson. They have a roster that suggests, Let's do something now. I know the owner wants to win now because he's had a lot of losing. So they not only are going to find a younger guy, but they're more than happy to find a one or two-year veteran that will start for them and actually make the Devante Adams expenditure worthwhile while because they've wasted Devante Adams here the last couple of years.

Now, I would be remiss, and I'll hear from it on my internal show text chain because I somehow ended up with the... It's got to be the biggest Florida State homer there is outside of Danny Kanell on my show staff. I would just really suffer under all the text if I don't bring up Jameis Winston. Another lotto ticket. You don't hear about Jameis, teams interested in... Jameis wasn't awful in New Orleans. When Derek Carr got hurt, certainly fantasy football players got something out of Jameis Winston. But you think there's much... Is there any promise left on the flower that is Jameis Winston?

Jameis Winston, I think, has a niche. And the niche is he's your backup quarterback who can function if your starter goes down. He had some very good coaching with Sean Payton, and yet, I'm not Jameis Winston feels like and has been for a long time the guy that you don't put your career on the line for. One coach did that. He threw 30 interceptions, and that was the end of that in a season. So Jameis Winston, lotto ticket as a starter. Man, yikes.

I like how you put it. If you're an NFL coach, how do you feel about putting your job on the line with Jameis? I don't think anybody says, Yeah, I'm willing to bank my career on Jamis Winston. Let's keep going on quarterbacks for a minute. I've always talked about this. I think it's fascinating, and that is as bad as NFL teams are evaluating quarterbacks in the draft, there's always quarterback inflation. It's pretty obvious there'll be at least three quarterbacks taken in the top 10, maybe with the top three picks in Caleb Williams, Drake May, and Jaden Daniels. Drake May from North Carolina, Jaden Daniels from LSU. A lot of talk, by the way, that Jaden Daniels has leaped Drake May, and he could go to Washington to the commanders. And then there's JJ McCarthy, and he seems to be benefiting from quarterback inflation. I mean, there's some talk of him climbing into the top 10 or at least at 10. I've noticed, at least in terms of talk and energy, there's some around Bo Nicks from Oregon and Michael Pennicks from Washington. Will they climb into the first round? I got to tell you, Pennicks was incredible in the college football playoff against Texas.

Incredible. Not the same in the championship game. I I was never blown away by JJ McCarthy, Armando. But you know what? I'm going to say this. I wasn't blown away by Brock Purdy either. I watched him in college. So bless these guys that they end up with Kyle Shanaher, I guess, would be my point. If these guys are going to be inflated and rise up in the draft, I hope you get to the right situation. Otherwise, I don't know how you're not Mac Jones.

Right. And not just end up with Kyle Shanaher, but end up with Christian McAfree to hand the ball to, and Trent Williams to protect your blindside, and Debo Samuel and Brandon Hyuk to throw the ball to, and George Kittle to throw down the scene to. Yeah, a lot of guys are going to be pretty all right in that situation, I would imagine. You're absolutely right about JJ McCarthy. He's rising. I don't think he's rising. We call it rising. We know what these guys internally thinking. We don't know anything about what they're thinking because that is their best kept secret. He's rising in the eyes of the so-called insiders and draft gurus who missed something or other. Now people are at the combine talking to scouts who know what they think of these guys. Now we're going, Oh, okay. Now we see their reasoning. The reason that JJ McCarthy is is rising is because number one, he's got a much better arm that anyone gives them credit for. Joe Milton had the highest velocity throw at the combine. You know who was second? Jj McCarthy, which surprised me because I'm going, wait a second. I thought he was like another questionable arm quarterback.

No, he's not that. One scout told me the ball actually jumps off off his hand. So there's that. He knows how to win, obviously. And he's really athletic in ways that people don't recognize. There's a play that a scout showed me on tape where he hands the ball off on a reverse. There's a reverse to Coram, their running back, and Coram comes out the backfield on the edge, and JJ McCarthy is trailing him by five yards.

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