At M and N, our team is family. I know all companies say that, but I really mean it. And that's why when it comes to hiring, it can be so hard to find the right candidates who feel like family. But not with Ziprecruiter. Ziprecruiter finds amazing candidates for you fast. And right now, you can try it for free@ziprecruiter.com. moneyrehab as a business owner, I love to save time. So I love how Ziprecruiter lets you connect with top candidates ASAP. You can use Ziprecruiter's pre written invite to apply message to personally reach out to your favorite candidates and encourage them to apply sooner so you you can hire faster and waste no time. Ditch the other hiring sites and let Ziprecruiter find what you're looking for. The needle in the haystack. Four out of five employers who post on Ziprecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Try it for free at this exclusive web address, ziprecruiter.com moneyrehab. Again, that's ziprecruiter.com moneyrehab. Ziprecruiter the smartest way to hire I'm Nicole Lapin, the only financial expert. You don't need a dictionary to understand. It's time for some money rehabilitive. Yesterday, I had doctor shepherd on the pod to talk about the slip in the market and what happened on Monday and how we got there today.

I'm talking about what the heck to do about it. I asked you on Instagram what you wanted to know in the wake of all of this market madness. And the number one question I got is now a good time to buy stocks? To tackle that question, I'm calling up Kevin Simpson. Kevin is the founder and chief executive officer of Capital Wealth Planning, an investment advisory firm with $10 billion of assets under management. Kevin and I talk about whether or not we should start prepping for a recession, whether to buy or sell stocks right now and what Warren Buffett is up to. And Kevin plays bullish or bearish with me and gives me his takes on the stocks that are causing the biggest stir on Wall street right now. Kevin Simpson, welcome to money rehab.

Nicole, thanks for having me.

So yesterday on the pod, we did a whole episode about the madness in the markets on Monday with you, Kevin. I'd love to look forward, like what happens next. But before we get into that, I would love to get your take on whether or not we're heading into a recession or not, or if everyone's overreacting.

Well, last Thursday and Friday, we definitely had a growth scare. That's why you saw the market sell off on Friday. People thought that a recession was inevitable because of the jobs report. Thankfully, we had a weekend intermission. There was a lot of things that took place behind the scenes. We can get into it if you want. Some of it's more complicated institutional trading, but there were some big unwinds that took place within hedge funds. That's why we saw the futures trading down even more so than everything else. Kind of like a little bit of a perfect storm. And what you saw with volatility was also an institutional unwind of a big short position. So we saw a big rebound today. I don't think we're going into a recession. I still think the soft landing is a base case. Really, really tricky for the Fed to do it. But so far they have, and it really comes down to the economic data and their data dependency. So I have somewhat cautious optimism.

No, tell us what happened behind the scenes in the hedge fund world.

It's not so much behind the scenes. It's just that there were hedge funds that you hear about the, it's called a yen carry trade. And I'll make it super simple because it's not that complicated. Japan has really low interest rates. So you could short a bond in Japan and you pay the interest called the carry trade. So you're paying one to 1.5% interest, you can leverage it to the hilt, and now you have all this money that you can take, and if you were a safe hedger, you could buy a treasury and get 5% and you make the spread, the 3.5% spread risk free as long as the yen doesnt move or Japan doesnt raise interest rates. Take it one step further. Youre a speculator, youre shorting the yen. You have all this money leveraged, and you buy the big tech stocks. That worked for a really long time. People were just making making, and then all of a sudden the bank of Japan raised interest rates a little bit. The yen versus the dollar had a 10% swing. And if your leverage and you have a margin call, well, you have to unwind your trades.

And thats mainly what happened at the same time. Perfect storm. The short Vix trade got crushed because the Vix spiked. So thats why you saw yesterday that the VIX go through the roof and then calm down a lot in the afternoon and today. So just a very dynamic weekend into yesterday can be really scary if you're watching something like that. But it's always better to know that there was some explanation behind it. Doesn't mean it's over. And certainly there could be other hedge funds that are in the same pickle, and they just haven't had a margin call yet. But I think the economic data is far better than what we're seeing in the stock market for the past couple of sessions.

I mean, it always works until it doesn't. That's what we saw. But you mentioned the VIX. The VIX came up a lot in reporting this week. Can you explain what the VIX is for someone who might not know?

Well, the VIX is really something that's important to me in my portfolio because we were involved with covered call writing. But to keep it simple, the VIX has been called the fear index. With the exception of yesterday, it hasn't done as good a job in predicting market moves. Even 2022 was the exception that proved the rule where we saw a full blown correction across the board. And we never really saw that capitulation in the VIX we did yesterday. But the VIX measures volatility on a 30 day future for the S and P 500. But why VIX is important for me is it's part of a black Scholes model, which is important to option pricing. And to make that as simple an explanation as possible. Options could be. If you could consider options, it could be priced on three primary variables, time, price and volatility. Now, there's other factors to it, but those are the big three time. You can pick one month, two months, three months price. You can pick 5%, 10%, 15% out of the money. We're in the money. You don't have control over the volatility. So when you see volatility higher, it makes option prices more expensive.

We definitely had institutions going in yesterday and hedging that drove the Vix higher, drove option prices higher. And you saw an unwind of the VIX on the short end of that trade. So pretty crazy.

That was a good explanation. That was a good, easy explanation. Or maybe the best I've heard of black Scholes.

Well, Nicole, I have the black Scholes model tattooed on my back, so maybe if we have time at the end, we'll get a chance to take.

Honestly, I wouldn't put it past you, but, like, how bad, in context, was Monday, really? So, you know, the business news media loves to freak out a little bit, but in context, this wasn't even in the top 100 worst days in market history, right?

No, we ended the S and P, ended down the day, 3%. So not that big a deal. Now, we were at, during a period of time inter day, 8.5% off of the highs, which is still no big deal. Like we're forgetting the bounce today. Like yesterday at the close, we were pretty much trading where we were in March and April. So I know there was more than a few people panicked and having nervous breakdowns, but I've been doing this for over 32 years, Nicole, and there were times that I remember we would get five or 10% pullbacks very frequently and we didn't have nervous breakdowns. It was the normal course of market behavior. Pricing gets a little bit more realistic at times and the expectations for economic improvement is a little bit lessened when you're raising interest rates from zero to 550 basis points. Thus the report, the jobs report on Friday that freaked people out. But the truth is the GDP was at 2.8% in the second quarter and Atlanta Fed has it for 2% in the next quarter. So even though growth is slowing, which you would expect, it's still growth, it's not negative, it's not a contraction territory.

So still okay for stocks?

Yeah. I can't imagine you having a. A panic attack. Maybe younger Kevin, like had some freak outs.

No, I had a really strict mentor that wouldn't let me get freaked out. But I was told the very first day that everything I thought I knew about investing and everything I learned in college was completely irrelevant. So you're a blank slate and I'm going to treat you like one.

And then how did he get you to chill?

He was very scary and I was too scared to pretend that I was scared. I just had to fake it till I made.

Okay, we're going to talk about Buffett in a second. But first, generally the market is recovering. What are you seeing as a buying opportunity?

Well, I think there were a lot of opportunities yesterday. We saw a rebound today. So it was really yesterday morning where you saw the most opportunity. We went in and we bought American Express yesterday. That's a stock that I think will continue to benefit from the high end consumer. If you think of us having like a k economy, the high end has been really unaffected by higher rates. And bringing rates down will only make the consumer stronger in that department. The lower end consumer is becoming affected for sure, with interest rates being high, credit card rates being high, $11 trillion of consumer debt out there, a lot of it is mortgages. So lower rates will help. But for the past twelve quarters, american expresses continue to increase their revenues. It trades at a 16.8 forward multiple. So you have a really good company there. If we go into a recession, it might be a little bit of a different story. But I know that for the past three years, they bought back 10% of their shares. And thats another thing that I really look for in companies. So show me earnings growth, show me reasonable multiples, show me dividend growth, and show me share buybacks.

And for right now, American Express checks off all those boxes.

Can you define what a K economy is? There are so many letters.

Its like you haves and have nots. So if you think of the K, theres people up on the top part of the K that are the American Express vetted clientele. And then on the bottom, you have people that are not in the highest net worth category who cant afford to go to McDonalds because the prices have inflated so much. Thats not entirely McDonalds fault. Their actual cost of product has increased by 40% since 2019. So inflation is a really, really big deal on the lower income consumer. Thats a lot of younger people, too. Its not that youre not working. Its that things are very expensive. When you try to describe inflation, you say, well, inflation is coming down. Its not deflation, its just disinflation. So if a candy bar used to be a dollar and now its $3, the only hope is that next year its not four, you want it to stay three, its not going to go back to one. And thats the problem with what happened post Covid, with all the infusion, not to be critical of it, you had no choice. Hopefully once in a generation pandemic. But it does a number on the monetary supply and it's really tough to keep inflation from running rampant.

And that's why you saw a Fed take interest rates that they kept at zero for twelve years to 5.5% in a very short period of time. And you're hearing a lot of critics say that they're keeping them there too long. But I'll bet in many cases those are the same critics and economists that complain that the Fed was waiting too long to hike rates. It's easy to play Monday morning quarterback.

Sure. And let's zoom out in recessionary times. What are you buying?

I hope that we're not in a recession, but if you are, you go to really low multiple stocks and a trade down. We own Walmart. We think Walmart's a beneficiary of a slowing economy. Not to say that you don't see higher income people going to Walmart or shopping online at Walmart but Walmart can be a company that benefits from people being a little bit pressed on their budgets. And they do a tremendous amount of business in groceries. So I think Walmarts a good example.

Yeah, Walmart outperformed the S and P in 2000, right? And 2008. So always like a good recession trade. What about in bullish times? What are you looking for? Is it the checklist of the dividend?

We had it, I mean we had it for twelve years with zero interest rates. It's easy to make money if you're a growth investor. So we're not a tech firm by any means, but any one of the big seven that was and still is incredibly popular will always have tremendous outperformance when you have robust bullish times. And the nice thing about a lowering rate environment is that people always pay up for growth. So your big tech names, which have come down a lot recently, are probably worth investing in at these prices. Not to say that they cant go lower the earnings dependent, but I think ultimately over the next few years, those growth names can do incredibly well because they have such massive potential and that's why their stocks are going up. What happened with the.com bubble in 2000? Companies were going up that had no, like, they had no earnings, there were no pes because there were no es here. With the AI trade, yes it was a little bit inflated, 100%, but if you look at companies that are involved with that, their earnings are really supporting a lot of the price appreciation.

Maybe not all of it, but the big tech is where you always want to be in good robust times.

Yeah, I mean some pros are saying this is just a natural market correction. Tech has been really frothy and this is just part of the cycle. One indicator that you mentioned investors look to when taking a look at evaluating buying a stock is a P E ratio, whether or not it's overvalued or not. Can you explain P e ratio for those who might just have had a brain fart or might have forgotten what P E ratio is and how investors use P E ratio in analysis, stocks.

Trade on two things. They trade on price and they trade on the multiple that we give them. And the P E ratio is the price over earnings. The higher the PE earning, maybe the more growth expectations surround the company. You look at really low multiple companies like big banks, utilities, telecom, they have very low multiples because their growth rate isnt expected to accelerate. By comparison, if you look at Internet companies or AI companies, tech companies, to whatever extent you consider pharma growth companies that have really high growth potential, demand a higher PE. So the more earnings that they can generate in the future, the higher the anticipation of the stock price over time. So when we look at PE ratios, you can look at the market and you can say okay, well if the S and P 500 earns $245 this year, we're probably trading at roughly at 21 times earnings on the S and P 500. Now how far can that get you? Can you go to 6000? Well, either the earnings have to go up a lot or the PE has to go up. And historically the pes don't trade at 21 forever on the broader indices.

So next year you could say well maybe we'll make 275 or do 278 and that gets you a lot closer to 6001. Thing I feel very confident about is that we'll be at 6000 whether it goes to 2001st before we get there, if it happens in two years or 20 years. History doesn't give us a really terrific roadmap on that. But the best companies that continue to earn more money will be part of the larger indices and therefore you'll see stocks go higher. It's always hard if you're a new investor to think about that because you think, well, gee, I wish I would have been born 30 years ago and I wish I would have been investing 30 years ago because look what's happened. Well, companies come in and out of favor, but it's that mindset that companies need to be more profitable next year. Eastman Kodak was really popular when I got in the business.

Yeah, I think about that all the time. Like what was I doing as a baby? Why wasn't I investing in Apple? That would have been amazing. And so for Nvidia, for example, if we just want to double click on the P E ratio, that's at over 62. So what does that tell us?

So you're right. So that's a pretty high P E ratio. But I think if you look at their earnings for next year, so we use 2025 forward earnings and I'm always thinking like stocks trade on their what's to come, it brings their PE ratio down to about 35.8. So not, not the 62, but not quite half of that, but in the 35 36 range its not as scary. It doesnt seem that overvalued or stretched because for the past ten years their PE is averaged around 33. So when you look at a stock like Nvidia, which I dont own, so its not a stock I can buy because of the absence of a serious dividend, but its a company that is amazingly popular, has been incredibly successful, but its done so on the back of its earnings, not on speculation. And thats unlike 1999 where stocks would go up in similar fashion on very little substantive news.

That's dot yeah, 100% hold onto your wallets money rehab. We'll be right back at eminent. Our team is family. I know all companies say that, but I really mean it. And that's why when it comes to hiring, it can be so hard to find the right candidates who feel like family. But not with Ziprecruiter. Ziprecruiter finds amazing candidates for you fast. And right now you can try it for free@ziprecruiter.com. moneyrehab as a business owner, I love to save time. So I love how ziprecruiter lets you connect with top candidates ASAP. You can use Ziprecruiter's pre written invite to apply message to personally reach out to your favorite candidates and encourage them to apply sooner so you can hire faster and waste no time. Ditch the other hiring sites and let Ziprecruiter find what you're looking for. The needle in the haystack four out of five employers who post on Ziprecruiter get a quality candidate within the first day. Try it for free at this exclusive web address. Ziprecruiter.com moneyrehab again, that's ziprecruiter.com moneyrehab Ziprecruiter the smartest way to hire while you're binging the pot, how about a little bonus tip as a starting place for your investment allocation that you can, of course, tailor depending on your goals, pros recommend making your bond allocation your age.

How about a second bonus tip when you want to invest in bonds, use public, the modern brokerage for investors looking for a simple yet sophisticated investing experience, public is truly the only place I buy bonds legit because every other app or site I've tried to use is so complicated. But on public, I can buy a bond on my iPhone in less than five minutes. This is a major upgrade because most investing platforms that offer bonds design their user experience before the iPhone was even invented. I'll let that one sink in, and you can use public for more than your bond investments. Public is the brokerage I use for all my investing needs, whether I'm looking for stocks, ETF's, a high yield cash account options and other assets, even music royalties. To build the multi asset portfolio of your dreams, go to public.com moneyrehab one more time because trust you will thank me. Public.com moneyrehab this is a paid endorsement for public investing. Full disclosures and conditions can be found in the podcast description. And now for some more money rehab. It's from Chuck Buffett. Buffett really spooked Wall street when he sold half of his apple steak.

He also sold a bunch of bank of America shares. And then you went in and you bought some apple scraps.

Yeah, so we bought Apple yesterday.

Why?

When the news broke over the weekend that he sold it now, probably his exit was around 230, I'm guessing. I bought it yesterday around 200. So there was a difference in when he bought it and when he sold it. Selling half of his position sounds like a lot. And it sure is. But it's still his number one position. It's still 20% of his portfolio. I'm not Warren Buffet. Our portfolio is not Berkshire Hathaway. But on a smaller scale. If we have a position, any one of the stocks that we own, if it grows to a seven or 8% weighting, I trim it back to 5%. So for risk management purposes, it's making sure that we don't have too many eggs in one basket and we're not dependent upon any one stock. For better or for worse, we've owned Microsoft for about twelve years, and all of last year we were just trimming Microsoft all the time. So if you say, oh gosh, why are you selling Microsoft? Well, we're not giving up on our Microsoft position. We're taking some profits and redistributing it. By comparison, even though I bought Apple yesterday, there have been nine times over the past twelve years where we've sold out of Apple completely.

Most recently was November of last year. We sold it at 187.5. And of course Murphy's law, a week later it's at 200. Why wouldn't it be? We rotated into vago Broadcom, and that did really, really well. And then Apple went from 200 down to 100 8171 hundred 60. We bought it at 100 8171 hundred 64. And then it rebounds really nicely. So it rotated out of broadcom back into Apple. I love Apple. I just don't always like the price it's trading at. And I have to imagine that some of the really smart people that work with Warren Buffett may look at it in a similar fashion. Like, we have a lot of apple. Do we really need this much?

Do you really think that that's what the Buffett folks were thinking? I mean, he's such the buy and hold guy. He's not the, like, pruning type of guy. So couldn't this sell off and holding onto a bunch of cash mean that he's doomsday prepping?

I think if they're looking to make a transition to pass the reins, maybe he would consider retirement at some point. I know it wasn't in Charlie's blood, and for a lot of us it isn't. But maybe this is me speculating. Maybe there could be a scenario where he came out at the end of the year and said, you know what? I'm passing the reins on to this next set of portfolio managers. I'm going to operate as chairman emeritus. And this gave them the ability to have some dry powder to put to work and maybe put their stamp on the Berkshire portfolio. I don't own that. I'm not a shareholder. I don't want to do any more than just make a guess because you asked me a question.

Can we play a quick game before I let you go?

That sounds like a lot of pressure, but sure.

You're like, what is the game? Tell me what I'm signing up for. So I'll throw out a few stocks, and I just want you to tell me if you were bullish or bearish.

Or can I say hold, buy, sell or hold.

I suppose I'll allow it.

I'm going to play it your way. Let's go. I'll try to wing it.

Let's go. Nvidia.

I think Nvidia is a buy. Bullish.

I mean, it feels like there's nowhere else to go but down. But you're saying there's room to grow.

Well, I look at the earnings growth. We talked about the P E ratio right now of 62, and I made the argument that if their earnings come in as projected, that the P E ratio would be 38 and change. And they have a history of beating their expectations. So the stock was 130 a few weeks ago, and it's 100 now. It's a 30% drop. I think if you don't own it, you could certainly buy some Nvidia here. And to your point, we can see a whole nother trade hedge fund go belly up, and you could get it at 90 or 80. So it's never an all or some game with me. But I think if you don't own Nvidia here, I can't buy it. But I would if I could.

Meta. So Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp.

So Meta just became a candidate for our portfolio. The last quarter, they announced the dividend. So it's in our universe. We actually have it on our whiteboard. And we're looking at it. I think they have tremendous earnings potential. Advertising looks really good. We haven't bought it yet. I do think it's a buy for us. The research that we need to do on it is going to be a little bit deeper dive just so we can learn about the stock. But it's what I'd like to have in the portfolio. I would be bullish on meta bitcoin, so I don't know anything about bitcoin, but I feel like it's something that people should have a little bit of just because you want to have the ability to talk about it at cocktail parties. I wouldn't make it a huge investment, but I believe in the thesis that people are interested in it in a really big way, and momentum can be a powerful thing. And if there truly is scarcity whenever they do the halvings, then that just makes the demand greater for lesser supply. So I don't think it's going away. I'm bullish.

Tesla.

I would never bet against Elon Musk. I don't know that I'd be aggressively buying the stock here because I know that his margins are coming down for the automobile. But if autonomous driving is something that never really comes to fruition, then you can justify that multiple. Probably be a bearish on the short term bullish long term board. Oh, bearish. There's nothing good to say about it.

Okay.

They should cut the dividend. They shouldn't even pay a dividend. Their earnings were so horrible last quarter.

Yeah. Eli Lilly.

Eli Lilly's a buy. The weight loss drugs. Even if other companies come into the marketplace, they're first to market. They're investing so much money, and to be able to develop it and produce it and manufacture it, that Eli Lilly is a buy, and there's so many other uses for it. I missed Eli Lilly. We owned Merck and Johnson and Johnson, which we don't have anymore. I have Amgen that we missed Lilly. I wish we had bought it, but I'm still bullish on Eli Lilly.

For the GLP ones?

For the GLP ones. Plus other things that they seem to have other uses. Lilly also is working on Alzheimer's drugs that I think could be very potentially profitable. So it's a company that's not a one trick pony.

And when you say you missed it, what does that mean?

I didn't buy it. It went up a whole lot, and I didn't buy it.

You could say, I wish I had.

Made the investment in Eli Lilly a few years ago and I just, I didn't. We can't get them all right.

So when you say you missed it, you just missed a certain price level, like you can still go buy it, it would just be too expensive for you based on some.

It's still a little pricey for my metric because of how I look at the company, but that doesn't always amount to the entire story because it's hard to fight the tape. The prospects for that are so good. I hope that that stock comes down a little bit more and that we can buy it because I'm bullish on their business model. I just think it's a little pricey for me to put a big position on at this point. It's come down a lot. If you look at the chart, it's getting very attractive to the point where we are looking at it. But I still think that if there's short term volatility over the summer, it is a presidential election year. For those of you who remember 2016 and 2020, it's possible we'll get some more air pockets and some more volatility, despite my more general bullish thesis. So as we did yesterday where we were buying things on dips, that's a candidate for us to put in the portfolio. Gold, modestly bullish. I think you have to have a piece of it similar to bitcoin, but not for the same reason. We prefer the miners we own Freeport McMoran.

Its a way to invest in not the commodity itself, but a company thats mining so that you get a little bit of a dividend. Now, Freeport specifically, I dont know that I would chase after it. Its a copper play more so than a gold play. We think that copper is going to be a real story in the future, but we have a long time horizon. So I think you have time to get into that trade. But if youre like gold and youre bullish on it, I think we are. Freeport McMorrad is how were playing it Apple? Oh, I love it. I love it. We bought more Apple yesterday and I think there will be a true refresh cycle for the iPhone. This is a stock that has lots and lots of volatility. So if you see it trade down back to 175, I mean, theres no surprise there. Its not going to cause us any concern. But if you dont own it, I would start buying a little bit of it here and just always buy it on those pullbacks. And when it gets up in that 230 range, you can sell it because it's a stock that has a decent ability to trade.

If you look at the chart, we wrote a covered call on Apple two weeks ago that expired and it brought in some good premiums. So I know this is maybe a conversation for another podcast, but covered calls are fun when you have stocks that have some volatility. And we've been writing a lot of options against Apple.

Trey, Amazon.

Yeah, it's a buy. I mean the AWS story is just incredible. You're probably very similar to Cole. You cant walk into my house without stepping over like 20 boxes every day from Amazon. Thats not necessarily a reason to buy a stock, but your eyeballs dont lie. The business model is unstoppable and a lot of times with the numbers you get a little upset about one component over another. But theyre playing such the long game. We cant invest in Amazon because they dont pay a dividend, but the second they do, theyll go on the whiteboard next to meta and well start following them very closely. Im bullish on Amazon.

Bank of America, our friend Warren Buffet also sold some of that.

I'd say bullish. I own JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, more so because of the investment banking component as opposed to just being a traditional bank. But the way the stocks come down, it's trading just a little over one time. Book, good dividend, great management. I mean, at some point he might retire, but I'm bullish on the big banks and think about lowering interest rates, how that could benefit some of the things that they have on their books. Bank of America would be bullish.

I just feel like in general, if something happened to bank of America, that's zombie apocalypse vibes. I just feel like bank of America is always going to be okay because of the name.

Well, we don't invest in any of the small community banks or the regional banks. I know there might be more opportunity there, but there's more risk to your point, when you have one that's that well capitalized, that well financed, and that well managed, you can sleep a lot better at night.

Crowdstrike, this is the company of course, that was at the center of the insane.

Well, also a name that we can't own. I would be bullish and take a flyer on it. I wouldn't put all my money in it. If I had money to put towards Crowdstrike, I'd put half in right now. When there's blood in the street, sometimes that's great opportunities to make an investment. Who knows what they're going to have to pay. Delta's suing them for like $500 million or something pretty sizable. There is some culpability. Theres going to be some financial outlay. I dont know if they have insurance or not for everything that happened, but the idea of how important cybersecurity is, maybe that was just a great wake up call, but it was something of their own doing, as opposed to an outsider getting in that they can come out of this even stronger. I dont expect it to happen overnight, but id be bullish on it with half of an allocation because I do think that there is no more important business from an AI standpoint, a computer standpoint, to have defense around your data.

Crude oil.

I wouldnt be overly excited about crude oil. For the past two years. Its traded between 70 and 90, and I would expect that to continue for the next two years. We own marathon petroleum, which had awesome earnings. And we also have a little bit of chevron. We have some Conoco Phillips. We own these companies because theyre main concern is distributing cash to shareholders. In the old days, it was about exploration and capex and spending money. Now it's about making money, distributing it to shareholders. So I think it'll be range bound. But I'm bullish on the energy names, maybe not the commodity itself.

All right, final round. Kevin, what are you bullish on? What stock are you bullish on that I didn't mention yet?

That's a good one. I think the first one that would come to mind would probably be TGX. TJ Maxx. This goes back to the beginning of our conversation. We were chatting about the K economy, the trade down. Walmart, TJ Maxx is the same type of thing. They went through a period where they stalled after the COVID There was a catch up trade in their profit margins, but they're hitting on all cylinders at this point with respect to the business model. And much like Walmart, it has the ability to attract the high end consumer and the lower end consumer. And if we have a recession, the higher end consumer will probably spend more time in those off rack stores. I'm a huge fan. I spend a lot of time at home goods, and again, not a reason to buy a stock. But the eyeballs don't lie and it's hard to find a parking spot.

What are you buying at home goods?

I'm not buying anything at home goods. Taking my wife to home goods, walking around with my dog and putting stuff in a cart.

And as you should. All right, Kevin, we end our episodes by asking our guests for a tip that listeners can take straight to the bank. Can you give our listeners who are freaking out about a potential recession right now any sage advice?

I think the freaking out is unnecessary. It would be naive to not have one eye on the ball expecting that it could happen at any time. But you have to watch the data, and so far the data is slowing. It's proving that the US economy is slowing and that's what's supposed to happen. When you have rate hikes, you need the economy to slow down. You need wage growth to slow down. You need unemployment to pick up a little bit so that you see inflation come down. It's not to say that the Fed won't cut too late. They could. I'm not freaking out about it. It doesn't mean we can't have a recession. But they have a lot of maneuvers that they can maneuver. And I feel like the fear is premature and unjust. But to blindly walk out into the night and think that everything is great and there's not going to be any problem would also be a mistake. So right now the data supports that. Not at risk of a recession in the short term. Eventually we'll have one. That's an economic cycle if they happen and we go through those. But I don't think that there's any reason to be freaking out about it today.

We always get through them, every single one. To find more of Kevin's work, including his book walk toward wealth, check out the episode description. Money Rehab is a production of Money news Network. I'm your host, Nicole Lapin. Money rehab's executive producer is Morgan Lavoie. Our researcher is Emily Holmes. Do you need some money rehab? And let's be honest, we all do. So email us your money questions, moneyrehaboneyoneyoneynewsnetwork.com to potentially have your questions answered on the show or even have a one on one intervention with me. And follow us on instagramoneynews and tiktokoneynewsnetwork for exclusive video content. And lastly, thank you. No, seriously, thank you. Thank you for listening and for investing in yourself, which is the most important investment you can make.