For more on the Race to the White House, I want to bring in a friend to top story, Alan Lickman. He's an author, historian, and a distinguished professor of history at American University. But his biggest claim to Fame, correctly predicting presidential elections. He's been dubbed the Nostradamus of elections and has a nearly perfect track record. Since 1984, Lickman has correctly predicted the past 9 out of 10 US presidential elections. If you're wondering what he got wrong, well, it's complicated. That was because it was when he picked Al Gore, but we know that ended up at the Supreme Court and George W. Bush winning. But he was one of the few to accurately predict Trump's victory in 2016. How does he do it? He doesn't listen to polls or political pundits. He follows his own list of 13 true or false questions which he developed in 1981, get this, with a geophysicist friend, Vladimir Kylis Barack. It's based on 120 years of presidential election outcomes before then. Here are the 13 keys that he uses, everything from the economy and policy change to scandals and charisma. It might seem like a lot, but he joins us now to explain it all.

Alan, so you know our viewers here at Top Story, we love politics, so we're going to break this down. First, let's get to the headline, right? Let me stop talking. Who do you think is going to win the 2024 election?

It's not who. What I think, it's what the system, the keys to the White House, indicates. And according to the keys to the White House, we are going to have an unprecedented president. That is, the keys predict that Kamala Harris will become the first woman President of the United States.

All right, Allen, so I want you to walk our viewers through like they're your students in class. Walk us through the system. Let's start with the first point here, starting with the midterm gains.

Yes. Now, the system is all based on the strength and performance of the White House Party. The way it works, if six of the 13 indicators, as you said, are very wide, go against the White House Party, their predicted losers, otherwise, their predicted winners. So six falses, and the White House Party loses. Fewer than six, they win. So the first key is the mandate key. Based on midterm US House elections, and that one is false because the Democrats lost seats in 2022.

Okay, next up is incumbency. What happens there?

That's a big one. Of course, by Biden stepping down, they lose the incumbency key. Harris is the vice President, not the President. So that one is also false, two down.

All right. Primary contest. What happened here?

This was the big thing that I was arguing that the Democrats were heading into disaster by not just having Biden step down and losing incumbency, but having a big party brawl and losing the contest key. But somehow they grew a spine and a brain united behind Harris. That key is true.

Third A challenger. We had RFK Jr. We no longer have them. What's the effect?

Well, a third party almost always counts against the White House Party. So the fizzle of RFK Jr. Means Key Number 4, third-party is true.

Short term economy, strong?

We measure it by whether or not there is a recession in the election year, not by polls on public sentiment. And clearly, the economy has had a soft landing, no recession. There's not going to be one in the next couple of months. That key is true.

Clock is ticking, though, and there's some economic indicators that are coming in before election day. What about long-term economy?

That's also very objective. Statistically, it asks whether the real per capita growth in the current term is at least equal or greater than the average of the previous two terms. And growth under Biden, believe it or not, has been more than double that average. So that key is true.

Has there been any major policy changes?

This is number There certainly have. Night and day between Trump and Biden, his chips bill, his infrastructure bill, his stimulus bill, his executive orders, his big inflation and climate change bill, his rejoining the Paris Accords on Climate Change. Big differences. That key is true.

But briefly, even though people may not agree with those changes, you're just saying these changes have happened.

That's right. The simply says, Major change. It doesn't try to gage where the public stands in them, which, of course, is very, very fickle.

This next one, Social Unrest, we'll remember going into 2020, you had the George Floyd protest, you also had pandemic protests. Talk to us about this one?

Yeah, I think the Harris switch has had a positive effect because Biden is no longer front and center, and it seems to have dampened protests. We've seen nothing like the massive sustained social unrest like we had in the '60s that threaten social stability this time. So that key is true.

What about the protests at college campuses across the country over the war in Gaza?

As I said, they're not massive, they're not sustained, and they haven't been anywhere near significant enough to threaten the stability of the country.

Next up, White House Scandal.

My favorite key, the Scandal Key, and Republicans are well aware of this key. They've been trying to pin a scandal on Biden for four years and come empty. Their spoken gun witness, Mr. Smernoff, was arrested by the FBI for lying and spreading Russian propaganda. Hunter Biden's problems don't count.

Even though he just pleaded guilty and was convicted in the other case?

It makes no difference. If you read the definition of the keys, it says it has to implicate the President himself, and there has to be at least some bipartisan recognition of scandal. Billy Carter didn't count against Jimmy, and Hunter doesn't count against Joe. It's got to be the President.

She will have an incumbent charisma.

Yeah, that one is false. That's a very high threshold key. You got to be one of those once in a generation, broadly inspirational candidates who's transformational, like Franklin Roosevelt or Reagan. Whatever you may think of Harris, she doesn't fall into that category. So that key is false. That's the third negative key.

Challenge your charisma now. This is interesting. What happens here with Trump?

Yeah, well, Trump's a great showman. But remember the definition of the key. You have to be broadly appealing, and Trump appeals to a narrow base. He's not broadly appealing like Reagan or FDR. His Approval rating in four years as President averaged 41%, historically one of the lowest levels we've ever seen. He lost two elections by a combined 10 million popular votes. Reagan and FDR won elections by landslides. So whatever you may think of him, he doesn't fit the criteria. I can't emphasize this too much. If you want to develop your own system based on something different, go right ahead. But if you're going to use the keys, you got to stick to how the keys are defined.

All right. And then what about has the White House had a major foreign policy fail?

These are the two most difficult keys, the foreign policy failure and the foreign policy success. We have two wars raging and things are Very, very fluid, very hard to predict. I've split the two foreign policy keys. I say, Gaza is a tragedy. It's a catastrophe with no end in sight. We don't have boots on the ground, but we're very committed to what goes on there. That's a failure. I count what Biden did to stop Putin from quickly conquering Ukraine. It was Biden and Biden alone who put together the coalition of the West that stopped Putin and has kept him at bay for two and a half years. If he had quickly he would have gone on to threaten our native allies. I think that's going to go down as an historic accomplishments. But look, wars are fluid. The two keys could flip negative, but that's still only five keys down. It would take six to predict that Donald Trump would regain the White House and Harris would lose.

So, Adam, I got to tell you, it's pretty brave. You've been right so many times. You're coming out 60 days before the election. What convinces you that nothing in the next 60 days could change your or could something change it?

The notion of an October surprise is a myth. I've always predicted election results for 40 years, and no October surprise has ever changed. What I have predicted because the keys to the White House are the big picture.

But Alan, not to interrupt you. I know you're the guru on this. I don't mean to interrupt you, but have you ever seen an election like this? You had a former incumbent was indicted, convicted. You had a guy at the top of the ticket who just had a debate, terrible debate. The President had to leave the ticket. Have you ever seen anything like this? I just wonder about that because this this election has taken so many twists and turns. How do you feel so confident?

Great question. First of all, one of my favorite comedians is the late great Gilderadna, whose character, Rosanne Rosanne Adana, was famous for saying, There's always something. Every four years, someone This election is unique. You got to change your keys. We have an African-American running. Never had that before. America is not ready. We have a woman running. We have social media. I say, You can't change keys on the fly. That's a recipe for era. Plus, the keys are very robust. Developmentally, they go all the way back to the horse and buggy days of politics in 1860. But finally, let me say, my keys are based on history. I'm not psychic Jean Dixon with a crystal I'm not Speaker Mike Johnson who thinks the Almighty talks to him. And yes, the patterns of history could be broken. But the problem is you never know in advance, you would only know afterwards. That's why I always stick to the keys. Could I be wrong? Of course, every four years, you can't tell you for 40 years how nervous this makes me.

All right, but it's got to be a little fun, too. Alan Lickman, we thank you for walking us through that, for teaching us your keys. We'll see if they're right. We'd love to talk to you after the election or maybe an election. Can I say one more thing? Yeah, go for it, Alan. Yeah, go for it.

You want to follow the keys and follow my thinking as we hit the election? Check out my live show every Tuesday and Thursday at 9:00 PM Eastern at Alan Lickman YouTube.

People are watching BBC News now, so I don't know if they're going to have time, but if they have time, we'll let them watch that, Allan. I'm just joking. You can plug the show. I'm going to check it out as well. Allan Lickman, we thank you for being here. Thanks for watching. Stay updated about breaking news and top stories on stories on the NBC News app or follow us on social media.