You can have that vote for a party like reform in the same way that sometimes you did with UKIP in the EU elections.

You mentioned Labor there. Let's cross live now to Wales, where Sakeer Starmer is addressing votes. Well, Boreda, good morning and welcome. Croeso, welcome to Kyrvördin, Kamadha. Welcome to Wales. In two days time, we will know who the new Prime Minister is going to be. We will know whether we have persuaded people to turn a page on the last 14 years and to actually believe not just in what the other party, not just what the Conservatives have done to our country for the last 14 years, but the positive message, the change that we represent. I can tell you the last time I spoke to Kirstan was just a few days ago. We were talking about the difference we could make for steel communities all across the country. That is the partnership we could have, two labor governments working together for Wales and Britain, to take forward devolution, economic stability, a new deal to turn a page on the Tories cost of living crisis. Change can only come if we vote for it. The Tories are desperate for people to do anything other than vote Labor. Anything other than to vote for change. I want my country to be in a better place for each and every family.

I want people to go out, No regrets. Don't leave it to other people to make the choice for you. If you want change, vote for it. It is time for change. It is time to win. Time to vote Labor. Thank you. Well, see, I can vote.

Keep those pictures on the screen right now, and we'll obviously go back when Sakeer Starmer starts to speak. We've got Katie and Ian here who are going to talk all things politics in a moment. Just Just keeping an eye on this, Katie, because Kirstam will speak in a moment. But what do you make of the Conservatives this morning? Mel Stry basically saying all over. It's not a case of a majority, it's stopping a super-majority. The Tories have thrown in the tower, haven't they?

I think it's really hard to look at all the polls, and there was a particularly brutalervation MRP poll yesterday and argued that the Tories have a chance to win. But it does create a dilemma for a party, because as you say, if you can see defeat now, It looks as though you've given up. But I do think the Tories think their best line, which tells you about the state of things, is just warning about the size and the scale of likely labor victory. They don't really have much to say now, left off their own accord. I think that's why we're hearing more and more about supermajorities between now and when these restrictions start. Yeah.

Is that healthy for politics, Ian? Have the Tories got a point that a supermajority is not ideal? You need a strong opposition, too.

Oh, no, it makes no difference whatsoever. I mean, our entire system, once you have a majority of, let's say, over 30 seats, you can basically do whatever you want. How many times were the Conservatives with an 80-seat majority that was obviously whittled down over the course of the last Parliament? How many of those votes were they losing on amendments? You don't lose. You whip your MPs. As long as you have a majority, you will win. That is how our system works. It's not a very good system, but that's how the system works. The difference between having an 80-seat majority and a 400-seat majority on a constitutional basis is pretty much zero. It makes no difference at all.

I think it can change some things. I agree with Ian, partly, but also, you think about the Tories, they want a majority of 80 and they had to cancel their planning rules. The fact they were going to have the biggest shake up.

Katie, I'm going to interrupt you. We'll pick up this discussion in a moment, but first, let's hear to the Labor Leader. Here, Labor Leader, Keir Starmer.

Brilliant, brilliant candidate, and we'll be a fantastic member of Parliament. Thank you, Vawn. When Vawn said the last time we spoke was about Tata Steel, he was right just the other day. I'll start with that because it's really serious and it shows the difference that a Labor Government in Westminster could make here in Wales. Because when we saw what might happen in relation to Tata Steel in the latest development, our first act was to get in touch with each other within minutes, to talk one-to-one, and then to set up a meeting to decide how we would resolve the issue and make sure we did everything possible we could do to to save jobs in steel, to save steel here in Wales. I will directly How do we contrast that with Rishi Sunak? Because when Mark Drekford asked for a meeting to talk about Tata Steel, what did Richie Sunack do? He said he was too busy to take a call. That is the difference that a labor victory tomorrow will make the working together, two governments working together to deliver for Wales. That is an incredible opportunity across Wales that we must take. Can I say thank you very much, that really warm welcome.

We've been on the road for many, many days now. It's the last day road, and to walk in here to have that warm reception is absolutely fantastic. Don't underestimate what boost that gives us all as we go into these final hours towards tomorrow. I was last here when we were launching in Abergevenny, and then we went down to Barry for an ice cream. It was beautifully sunny. Vawn assures me that this actually is liquid sun here that we've got today, but it was absolutely incredible. We've been absolutely campaigning with a smile to face a spring in our step because we've got a confident message about change to take forward and to be absolutely clear about the choice at this election. We've now had 14 years of chaos, of vision and failure, and the choice tomorrow is to bring that to an end, to turn the page, and start to rebuild with Labor. I've been saying throughout this campaign that if they're returned on Friday for five more years of the Tories, we won't get anything different. It'll be the same. They've evidenced it in the campaign because Richie Sunack started by campaigning with David Cameron.

Then he borrowed Liz Truss's program and put it in his manifesto of unfunded tax cuts. And last night, they wheeled out Boris Johnson. When I say chaos, division, and failure, they've just exhibited it in this campaign. They've made... Nothing is going to change. You've just seen it in the last six weeks, five more years of the same. And that's why we must go through today and through till 10:00 tomorrow making our argument, because there are a lot of undecided voters still, lots of constituencies that will come down to a few hundred It's votes that make the difference. People need convincing about the change that we need. They need convincing that change is possible, that they can vote for change. We need to be clear with them that if they don't vote for change, if we don't get a Labor government, we could end up with more of the same on Friday morning. We do have to say, imagine waking up on Friday morning when the headline is Five more years of the Tories. Nothing's changed. They'll be emboldened, entitled, thinking they can get away with anything. We have to make that case. We have to say over and over again, Change only happens if you vote for it.

Change only happens if you vote for it. We have to say with confidence and assurance, imagine a a government starting its work to rebuild the country, to make sure that we have the public services we need, the infrastructure we need, the chance for every child and young person to have the opportunity to go as far as their talents will take them. Imagine wherever you come from, whatever your background, the chance to get on, and that change in Westminster that will make such a difference to the lives of millions of people. That's why we're here in the Labor Party. That's why we've campaigned so hard and the special benefit, the double benefit in Wales. Because if we get a Labor government in Westminster, then for the first time in 14 years, we get two governments working together, not in conflict, not constantly seeking to undermine what's going on here in Wales, but doing what Vawn and I did in the last week, picking up the phone, getting in in touch with each other. How can we work together to deliver in Wales? What a huge opportunity we have. We got to get out there every every hour of today and tomorrow, all the way through till 10:00, fight for every single vote.

This is an incredible opportunity for change across the whole of the United Kingdom and a double opportunity to deliver here in Wales for every single person and household. Let's go out. Let's do it with that smile, that positivity, our argument before the country, hoping for that victory tomorrow. Thank you all so much.

Thank you. Takir Starmer kicking off his day in Camarvinshire. We can show you a list of all the candidates standing in Kyra Ferdin, which is also known as Camarvin, where he was. There you go. The candidates who people can vote for in that constituency when the polls open at 07:00 AM tomorrow. We're going to chat to Ian, Katie, and Mary about all of that in the rest of the day's politics after this short break. Don't go away.

How are you doing?

Good.

Good. We're going to miss this tomorrow, aren't we? You're not. We may have more opportunities to speak in the future. I'm sorry about the little bit of niggle.

I'm Mark Stone, and I'm Sky's Correspondent, based here in Washington, DC.

Police station.

Ahead of us. Let's just reflect, Katie, on Keir Starmer in South Wales in Camardernshire earlier on. We should set the Welsh context on this because Labor have been in power in Wales for 25 years. He was flanked there by Vaun Geffing, the first minister, who was a man who had suffered a defeat in a vote of confidence. So is that a good look?

It's an interesting look. I mean, Vaun Geffing has had no honeymoon whatsoever, really, when it comes to his leadership. But yet you look at the polling in terms of what we expect to happen to Wales in the general election. And it's the Tories who seem to be at the risk of almost having close to no seats, and Labor who are looking pretty strong. So perhaps it means in this way of looking at it, being next to a scandal ridden politician isn't the worst look because the voters at the moment, it doesn't seem to be making them think too much about switching, at least from Labor to the Tories.

What do you reckon of this question of expectation management? Because we know that Star was not that popular. Do you think that they're relying on the fact that he's not that popular and people aren't expecting much, and therefore, hopefully, they can bring people a pleasant surprise? Or do you think it's actually going to be exactly what they say, which is there's no money and we can't do that much?

It could be a little bit of both. I have to challenge, by the way, this idea that Starmer isn't that popular. He is not Taylor Swift. I accept that.

He's historically been compared to David Cameron, Taylor, Blair, Thatcher, when they won.

Right, but a bit more popular than Boris Johnson, for instance. At the time, we would all sit there going, Well, look at this tremendous titan of charisma and blah, blah, blah. She does okay. In our current world, having plus three on your approval ratings is absolutely soaring heights for a politician. He is the most popular politician in the country. He has some backup there. I remember two years ago, Neil Kinnock was the first person I heard say it, and he said, Look, I think he might just be the right man for the right moment. Just say, you want someone boring, competent, ept, someone who can do it. Exactly. You can come in and just go, no, hang on a minute. We're going to steady the ship. We're going to make sure public services run a little bit better. We're going to try and get some stability here, politically as well as in the economy. For that, he seems like pretty much the right guy for the moment, and it seems like the election is pretty much playing out according to that view.

Katie, let's return then back to the Conservatives. We got Mel Stride earlier on this morning, around about a quarter past seven, and he's doing the rounds, possibly for the last time, if the polls would be believed. Certainly, he was giving that vibe because their heads are down. A lot of them are thinking, well, privately, they're saying, some of our colleagues, I hope I lose because they don't want to be in a conservative rump in Parliament.

Yeah. I still think there is a real feeling of uncertainty in the Tori Party about the scale of loss that they might be about to have in the sense that you will speak to some figures who say they do think there is a chance there are 50 Tori MPs left by the of this. That's a little below what the Salvation MRP had. But they also think they wouldn't be so surprised because the margins are tight. If they somehow managed to get closer to 150, I think the dream scenario right now would be 200. I think that is probably too hard to get to. But it does mean there's so much flux because there's all these factors we don't quite know about. The difference between 50 and 150 is huge in terms of, yes, it's going to be tricky in Parliament, but a rump of double-digit MPs, quite as As you say, a few candidates would, I think, rather try and find a job elsewhere than stick around for what that is going to be like.

We are in unprecedented territory because sure, all the polls suggest it's going to be a Labor win. We don't know how big. Look, Ian, how quickly they have turned things around from their worst defeat ever in 2019. That's got to give if the Conservatives do want to lose, no one's cast a vote yet, of course, unless they did a postal vote, unless they got their postal votes in time, a whole other story. But they can turn it around. If the Conservatives aren't absolutely decimated, There's always hope.

There is. Two things have happened here. The first one is the long-term demographic change, which is that people don't have an attachment to a political party in the same way they did, for instance, even in the 1980s.

It's not as tribal as it used to be.

It's not as tribal. That's actually quite a good thing. Why should you be voting for a party just because your grandfather and your father and everyone else? Exactly. It should be more of a consumer offer, essentially, to go, Well, fine. So what are you offering? Am I going to back you? That's clearly the world that we're in now. The second is much more recent, and that's what's happening across the world with COVID, with inflation, with Ukraine, these sudden fluxes in economics and in geopolitics that are suddenly changing the dynamics that affect that domestic political scene. So that latter part might fade away. The first part hasn't. I guess that would offer some hope to the Tories, although you really are looking at a candle far away in the dark.

What do you make of the Lib Dem campaign? Because Matt Thompson, who's been following the Lib Dem campaign for Earth and Sky, he was talking this morning about how they're slightly feeling like they're being trolled by this new MRP poll that's suggesting they could get 61 seats, and actually they think that that's not likely and is going to make their potentially quite successful campaign look less successful if the expectations are so high. What have you made of all these stunts and stuff? I think they're quite entertaining. I think it's a bit of light relief, but nonetheless, is it effective?

I think it's effective for getting on the news, right? We currently have it on the news, so case of point. If you're a smaller party, managing to get on the 6 or 10 or in these news bulletins because it's a more colorful coverage. Well, sky breakfast is what you meant to say. They just got there. So they've hit the peak already. So if you want to get a runner-up prize and get on potentially another show, I think having colorful fun coverage does increase the chance of making the cut. So it's good in that sense. It also means we're not talking about another scandal involving Ed Davy pre-election. I think in terms of the polls, it's a really interesting question because Labor and Lib Dems and the Tories will say on the ground, they do not recognize the scale in terms of the polling of wins for Labor and the Lib Dems and losses for the Tories. Now, it could be that the polls are picking up things, voters that they are not getting to, but there does feel a bit of a mismatch coming from all sides. And that's partly because Labor don't want to say they think they're going to get a huge supermajority, but certainly speaking to Labor campaign, it's not for that level of enthusiasm, but it could be, of course, because it's about the Tori vote cratering as opposed to pure enthusiasm for Labor.

But I think the polls and how it really looks at 10:00 PM on Thursday is going to be a test of, do the polls know something that the candidates do not?

People online were saying, I was being too flippant, referring to these stunts by Ed Davies, saying, If there's a body of water, he will jump into it. But We've just seen four different bodies of water with Ed Davy jumping into it. But good point, Katie, about it somehow deflecting attention. We have Monira Wilson sat where you are and some of the accusations from the postmasters affected by the scandal saying, This is trying to whitewash history. There he is with dominoes as well and bungees and everything else. Ian, I'd like to just wrap up the discussion by talking, of course, about the other, what you would call the main parties, the ones who are polling serious numbers in the polls, the Green's reform as well, and the SMP, too. They're facing various different challenges.Yes.Don't ask a very broad question.

That was extremely broad, yeah. Yes, although they faced the same one that they've They've always faced reform or UKIP in its previous incarnation, and the Greens have always been in the same position. Widespread support across the country, but never localized in a particular area.

A mile wide, an inch deep.

Exactly, yeah. You'd end up with a million votes for the Greens in the last election. I think it was 750,000 votes and zero MPs. I beg your pardon, one MP in the form of Caroline Lucas. That's the problem that they've always faced. The question in this election is, are there areas where that can change? Now, reform, obviously, you think they're up to five, maybe seven seats they could The Greens are looking at Bristol, with Hangen Debennair as standing in the Labor MP and thinking, you know what? We might be able to do that. We might be able to localize the vote enough. This is not really about a great swelling support for these parties. It's about whether you're localizing your support sufficiently to win an actual constituency with our support.

With the SMP, though, let's focus in on their challenges. Humza Youssef going not that long ago now, all the questions surrounding the party and its handling of its finances with the previous first minister, of course, as well. Now, John He parachuted in unchallenged, perhaps unexpectedly from his point of view, and then having to run a general election campaign as well. I mean, a hard task for that.

Yeah, really hard. By the way, that's in line with what's happening to the Conservatives, because it's the penalty for being an incumbent in a period of geopolitical and economic chaos. You could actually start drawing that across to what is happening to Macron, to what is happening to Biden in the US, that actually the recurring theme is, incumbents are getting damaged no matter where you are in the world right now. As it happens for the SMP, they've been power for a really long time, so they're experiencing it as well.

Jet lag is a very difficult thing to deal with. You've got to be fair to Joe Biden there. If the debate is not between 10:00 AM and 4:00 PM, then it's going to be tricky.

I mean, maybe it needs to clock off more at 6:00 like Kirstammer. Absolutely. I'm curious a bit more about reform. What do you reckon when it comes to the reform boat and the swell that we're seeing quite quickly, do you think the Tories slightly were slow off the mark in understanding or recognizing the threat from reform? Because at the beginning of the campaign, they also almost seemed to try and ignore reform. Now, they're only really, the past few weeks, starting to really aggressively attack reform, whereas before it was, I respect Nigel Farage, and I don't really want to talk about him. They've changed that. Do you think that was too slow?

I think the changing factor was clearly the return of Nigel Farage, because initially, Nigel Farage said he was going to focus on America. He's changed tack. That was when I think they thought they probably could ignore reform and it wasn't going to gain this momentum. Then, as you say, in some of these debates, you heard Penny Mordemont not looking at Nigel Farage and only looking at Angela Reina. I think they've had to be much more head-on. I think there was a question as to the strategy ahead of this election, because could they have done more things? You got two options, counter-reform by things like the ECHR are moving that way, so you outflank them, or potentially moving more to the center and doing it that way. I feel, speaking to Tori candidates, they feel the party didn't do quite enough in either direction and As you know, you needed to clear a strategy from months ago.

Suella Brevear was scathing about it in the Telegraph, in fact, saying, We've been squeezed from the left and the right. I think there's that posturing right now as to who could possibly be a future leader of the Conservatives Party. I just want to think about the reform thing and rewind all the way to Lee Anderson leaving the Conservatives and joining the third party of his political career, having been a Labor Councilor previously. Of course, he thought Richard Thais was a pound shop, Nigel Farage. He also thought that Nigel Farage would necessarily run in a seat because it would take him away from the national campaign. But here we are. It all hangs on Nigel Farage's reform success, doesn't it?

Not all of it. But there's no point denying that he really detonated across the middle of the campaign and changed everything up. Then, of course, one of the things that Richard Sunak will rue about his timing of the election is if you'd done it in November, really, you'd have Farage totally bundled up with what was going on in the States and probably struggling to come back. Do it here. But the ultimate mistake is right at the beginning, where Richard Sunak had an opportunity to disassociate himself from what had come before in his party. You look at policies like Rwanda, you can just go, No, it's too right wing. It's cruel and it's ineffective, and I don't want anything to do with it. You can disassociate yourself from Liz Truss. You can disassociate yourself from Boris Johnson. He chose not to do it. Then suddenly, when it comes to this position where he's being challenged brutally from the center by the Lib Dems and Labor, he still his only place to appeal to is to the right, to the right, to the right. And yet those guys stopped listening a very long time ago. The fault with what has happened, the tactical fault with what has happened, lay as the very beginning of Richie Sunak's time as Prime Minister, not in the last few weeks.

It is fascinating to share a bit with you both. Ian Katie, thank you very much indeed. Mario, thanks to you as well. I think Gareth's chillaxing out there on his green leather bench given his arrive back here in Westminster. Going to be a fascinating final day of the campaign. Stay with Sky News for the full story first as we head into the polling day, 7:00 AM tomorrow. For now, thanks for your company. Bye-bye..