Transcribe your podcast
[00:02:05]

O'clock. This is Sky News at Ten. Live from Jerusalem them as Benjamin Netanyahu asked his government to back a hostage deal held captive in Gaza for more than six weeks. The potential agreement between Israel and Hamas that could see women and children freed.

[00:02:25]

There are stages in a war and stages in bringing back hostages, but we will be relentless until we achieve full victory and until we bring them all back.

[00:02:36]

Israel's prime minister says their families would see them released in stages and that making a deal is the difficult but right decision. The war in Gaza is not over, though, says Benjamin Netanyahu, as Israeli soldiers now surround a former Hamas stronghold and refugee camp. Also on Sky News at Ten tonight, the chancellor signaled tax cuts ahead of the autumn statement, expected to cut national insurance as well as boost the wages of the lowest paid. The tragedy for four teenagers on a camping trip found dead inside their upturned car in snowdonia. And we'll take a first look at tomorrow's front pages. That's coming up in our press preview from good evening. Benjamin Netanyahu said tonight that Israel will continue its war with Hamas until it achieves all its goals. Those goals, though, include freeing the country's hostages. And to do that, Israel's prime minister is asking his government to approve a deal with Hamas. It's a difficult decision, but the right one, he said, and would result in some of those in Gaza being released in stages. Tonight, we'll assess the impact of a deal on the war and hear from the families of some of those held.

[00:04:07]

Our international affairs editor Dominique Waghorn reports.

[00:04:11]

They waited for hours for news outside the Israeli military headquarters while the government met to discuss the hostage deal. But then hostage families and their friends have had six weeks already waiting in a vacuum of information.

[00:04:25]

I don't know. I hope they're okay, but we don't know nothing.

[00:04:29]

While they protested demanding more action, israel's prime minister said a deal to bring some of their loved ones home was close. There are stages in a war and stages in bringing back hostages, but we will be relentless until we achieve full victory and until we bring them all back. I've had discussions with my good friend, the US. President Biden, and I asked him to intervene in order to improve the outline of the deal. And indeed, it has been improved so that it will include more hostages and we will pay a lower price. He was completely mobilized to achieve this, and I thank him for that. And in Washington, Joe Biden was also sounding confident. We're now very close, very close. We could bring some of these hostages home very soon, but I don't want to get into the details of things, because nothing is done until it's done. This is potentially the biggest diplomatic breakthrough since the war began. Even if the Israeli government approves the deal, though, it could still come undone through objections to the Supreme Court or events on the ground in Gaza, the families of the hostages face an agonizing weight.

[00:05:39]

Still, the deal could release women and children like Shiri Biebas and her little boys, Ariel and baby Kafir, the youngest of the hostages, only ten months old, taken by gunmen on October 7, and Amelia alonely, abducted with her mother Danielle, and her twin cousins, Julie and Emma, seized with their parents, Sharon and David. There are thought to be as many as 90 women and children being held in Gaza. Outside the cabinet meetings, frustration that the deal could be delayed.

[00:06:09]

I'm really worried because the deal is talking about mainly about children, and this is just absurd that children are involved in this fight, in this war. We have to bring the children back now as top priority, no matter what.

[00:06:30]

Even when it's agreed, events in the war could upend this truce. An Israeli artillery shell or a Hamas rocket claiming mass loss of life and the bombing and shelling will go on until the ceasefire begins. For those waiting to see the hostages come home, the pain will continue, too, until the moment they're out of Gaza. Dominic Waghorn, Sky News, Tel Aviv.

[00:06:54]

So many families here in Israel will be hoping tonight that their loved ones might soon be released. Around 30 children and more than 50 women are thought to be among those being held. Among them is nine year old Irish Israeli Emily Hand, who was abducted from kibutz Beri, where more than 100 people were killed during the October 7 attack. 21 year old Maya Regev was taken hostage along with her 18 year old brother, It Lay from the Nova Music Festival. And 85 year old Yafar Ada is one of the oldest hostages. A great grandmother, her family say, needs medication for blood pressure and chronic pain. Among those also hoping to benefit from a deal will be the hundreds of thousands of Palestinians short of food and water in southern Gaza. Our Middle East correspondent Alastair Bunkel reports on what could come from the deal.

[00:07:55]

The Israeli military says that it has now surrounded the Jabaliya refugee camp, a Hamas stronghold in northern Gaza. Fighting outside the Indonesian hospital in the camp has intensified in recent days. Hundreds of patients and civilians are reportedly trapped inside, but some of the wounded have now been transferred to another hospital further south in Hanunis.

[00:08:21]

We went to schools. They bombed us. We went back to our homes. They bombed us again day and night. The army was telling us to go to the south. We came to the south. We started walking at 09:00 A.m. On the route. We were detained by the IDF. They used us as human shields so they could move freely.

[00:08:37]

For more than six weeks, the Israeli military has hit Gaza with thousands of airstrikes and carried out a large ground invasion to eliminate Hamas. They have destroyed most of Hamas's capabilities in northern Gaza, but not all. The frequency of Hamas rockets fired into Israel has decreased significantly, although not stopped altogether. Israel is clear that its mission isn't over. Senior Hamas leaders have not been captured or killed. There is more Hamas infrastructure to destroy, and there will be many hostages left in Gaza even after the expected truce. And so the IDF wants to start focusing on the south.

[00:09:21]

The Israeli government is absolutely committed to continuing fighting, to continuing to achieve the goal that it has set for itself of destroying Hamas's military and governing capacity, even though there's no clear and objective measure for that goal. And there's a very significant assessment that it can't actually be achieved because Hamas is so deeply embedded in Palestinian society and Gaza, especially because they've been in power for the last 16 years. And so there's very little question that Israel will continue fighting after this.

[00:09:49]

70 lorries of aid have entered Gaza over the past 24 hours. It is nowhere near enough. On a normal working day in peacetime, an average of 500 trucks go in. The expected pause in fighting will be a chance to surge the humanitarian aid. As the situation in the south deteriorates rapidly. A truce will provide some relief from weeks of bombing for civilians in Gaza and for Hamas. The Israeli government and military is worried that Hamas will use the time to regroup, reposition and rearm. As the number of casualties continues to rise in Gaza, israel knows that they will come under increasing international pressure to turn a temporary pause into a permanent ceasefire. Alistair Bunkel, Sky News, in Jerusalem.

[00:10:45]

Well, we heard from him earlier, but let's go back to Tel Aviv and speak to our Dominique Waghorn, who joins me live from there now. And, Dominique, you talked about the agonizing wait for the families, and although an official announcement hasn't happened, we are expecting it tonight.

[00:11:04]

We are. But it's not entirely clear what's holding it up, and it's not entirely clear why this is happening. The Prime Minister. The Israeli Prime Minister wants this deal to be approved. Hamas wants it to be approved. The Americans do. The Qataris do. But not all Israelis want to. Extraordinary scenes outside the kiria where the meeting is still going on. Six hour meeting now. It's meant to last 3 hours. What we had outside were the families of the hostages and their friends and supporters chanting, protesting, keeping up the pressure on the Prime Minister. But over the road, there were supporters of far right members of his cabinet chanting against them, hurling abuse at them, raising their fingers and obscene gestures against them. Extraordinary, really, given what all these people have been going through for the last six weeks. But their leaders, the far right members of the cabinet, Bengaveir and Smotrich, both say that they think this deal is a disaster for Israel because it takes the pressure off Hamas. So the question is, are they leading some kind of mutiny. They don't have power of veto over this, but they could lead some kind of mutiny.

[00:11:59]

The explanation we're getting at the moment is that it's because the way they are voting, the process at the meeting is different to normal. Each of these politicians, each of the ministers are being given the chance to speak their mind. And they do have a ponchon for speaking at length some of the members of Netanyahu's cabinet. And therefore this is going on and on and on. But there is a possibility of these other far right mutineers leading a bigger mutiny and rebelling against the deal that's I think unlikely to happen. But something is holding this up. And even if it is approved tonight, we have this 24 hours period where Israelis who feel they were victims of the Palestinians who are going to be released as part of this deal, could object at the Supreme Court. Now, the Supreme Court has never sustained those objections. The government's always had its way. It's possible tomorrow, and then beyond that, we have a ceasefire with all the challenges that the Israeli Palestinian ceasefire faces. So we're not out of the woods yet, even once they've approved this deal, which so far they haven't done.

[00:12:57]

Dominique, thanks so much for that update there from Tel Aviv. Now, there were three more victims of this war on Israel's northern front today, killed in a rocket strike. Two of them were journalists. It's just the latest attack, appearing to target civilians and those working in the media in the border area of southern Lebanon. Our special correspondent Alex Crawford reports from there. The two journalists appeared on their channel's promotional footage, with Farah Omar fronting the coverage and Rabi Mamari behind the camera. They were one of the channel's top teams reporting on the war on Lebanon's southern border. They just finished doing this live broadcast from a field where they were clearly marked as media. Pictures filmed soon afterwards shows a crater. The Lebanese Prime Minister said this was a deliberate attempt by Israel to silence the media. A third civilian nearby was also killed. The channel they worked for, Al Maedin, is known to be pro Palestinian and pro Iran. The crew's belongings and equipment are left scattered around, and their camera is still positioned on its tripod, half melted, but in clear sight for all around to see. We'd met the team whilst we were gathering evidence about the targeted killings of journalists and civilians.

[00:14:17]

You can see Farah and Rabi in the background on the hill. They now join the growing list of non combatants in Lebanon, all killed in direct strikes. They were also investigating the deaths of these three little sisters, incinerated again after an Israeli strike, and killed with their grandmother. They just packed up to move to a safer area in Beirut. Their mother was the only survivor pulled out by their uncle Samir, also a journalist.

[00:14:46]

She didn't say, Help me or rescue me. She just said, I want my kids. Where are my kids? Help me get them out of a car.

[00:14:53]

As we film, an Israeli drone is constantly overhead monitoring us, just like it was when the family were packing up. Samir took us on the route they'd taken to Leave. I was seeing all this bombing along the way, he told us. They stopped at a corner shop to pick up snacks for the journey. They were excited, the owner said, and showed us images they'd captured on the shop's security cameras. The CCTV shows Huda, the mother of the girls, and her youngest, ten year old Leanne, walking back towards the car. Their uncle Samir emerges from the right to help them. He was in another car in front and had rounded the corner when the strike happened. The vehicle quickly caught fire, obliterating another journalist's family. Israeli military drone footage released a day later shows a car being hit. Sky News has DUOLocated it to the same road. The IDF told us after multiple exchanges that they'd hit what they called a suspicious vehicle with several terrorists inside. But they're now investigating whether some uninvolved civilians were also inside. Human rights investigators say that's a war crime and they want Israel's allies to push for justice.

[00:16:09]

Israel in several occasions has failed to conduct credible investigations and hold individuals accountable for war crimes or other violations that were committed. And so we believe that Israel's allies, including the US. The UK and others, should press for accountability on this apparent war crime.

[00:16:32]

The pattern of attacks on journalists and their families come on top of the killing of more than 50 journalists in Gaza. Now there's a growing clamor that each of these attacks should be investigated as potential war crimes. Alex Crawford, Sky News in southern Lebanon. Let me just show you some pictures that are coming in from Tel Aviv at the moment, and it is of the government and of course, the war cabinet and the security cabinet. They've all gathered there to discuss and debate this hostage release deal. So, as you can see, there are intense discussions and debate that's taken place for the last few hours. Now we are waiting for an official announcement of some sort that this deal has gone through, but as you can imagine, it's incredibly tense. So those discussions continue to take place in Tel Aviv as we speak, and as soon as we have more information that will be coming out, we will be bringing that to you. But you could see there the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as the rest of his cabinet, intensely debating this deal. I'll be back a little later in Sky News at Ten, but for now, let's go to my colleague Anna Botting at Sky News Central.

[00:17:52]

Anna? Yalda, thank you. Now it is the government's final big set piece moment of the year to try to shift public opinion in its favor. So far, the policies announced target the less well off with the largest ever increase in the national living wage. But ministers are also talking tax cuts, with a reduction in national insurance expected tonight. In a moment, we'll look at what space the Chancellor has to be considering them. But first, our political editor Beth Rigby.

[00:18:19]

Has this report billed as the autumn statement to get Britain growing. It's really about getting the Conservatives going today, a very retail offer for 2 million workers, the biggest ever increase to the living wage.

[00:18:35]

This is a pay rise for up to 3 million workers and is part of our commitment to make sure that we make work pay.

[00:18:41]

You talked this morning about tax cuts for businesses, tax cuts for individuals. Has it got anything to do with the fact that the Conservatives are now 20 points behind in the polls and you are running out of time?

[00:18:56]

Well, I think in the last year, the Prime Minister and Chancellor have made some really difficult decisions in the national interest. We've met the Prime Minister's commitment to halve inflation. That's going to make a massive difference to people at home now. And now we're really focused on growth and making sure that we bring the tax burden down.

[00:19:12]

And many Conservatives believe they need to, and quickly. Tax levels now at their highest in 70 years. The Prime Minister is now talking about this being a time to cut taxes. You must be delighted, aren't you? It's what you've been calling for.

[00:19:27]

I'm pleased. Quite frankly, Beth, if we can start signaling the route, the pathway, that great Conservative journey of moving towards lower taxes, that is to be welcome.

[00:19:39]

So do you want tomorrow to be the moment where the Prime Minister goes for it and he really kick starts this general election campaign?

[00:19:48]

Well, I'm open for that totally on the basis know, a year out from an election, we have to be out there speaking about who we are, what we stand for.

[00:19:58]

You say we, as Conservatives believe in low taxes. Does the Prime Minister believe in low taxes, Beth?

[00:20:03]

You ask him that question.

[00:20:04]

The answer is yes. The government now changing its tune. For months, we've been told the time isn't right for tax cuts. Well, tomorrow the Chancellor will say the opposite. Now, apparently it is, with tax cuts expected for individual workers and businesses too. Now, treasury insiders will tell you this is all about an improving economic outlook, but make no mistake, there's plenty of politics in this too. The Conservatives are 20 points behind labor in the polls and the Prime Minister is running out of time with you, the voters, and his restive party as well. But in marginal Conservative corby, would tax cuts convince voters to stick with Sunak?

[00:20:46]

Whether I would vote Conservative, I don't think that alone would sway me, to be fair.

[00:20:51]

They've cut one thing, but they'll take out of another. That money has to be paid elsewhere. So is that money going to be paid with the rising cost of fuel? Is it going to be paid with the rising cost of petrol?

[00:21:04]

Tax cuts expected next spring now come in early, but are the offerings too little, too late? Beth Rigby, Sky News, Westminster.

[00:21:14]

So how big could those tax cuts be? And how has the Chancellor created the financial space to do it? Our economics and Data editor, Ed Conway has this assessment.

[00:21:25]

It's the Autumn statement. And if you've been following this in the run up, you probably recall two things. First of all, apparently the Chancellor has lots of headroom with which to spend extra money. And secondly, he'd rather like to cut taxes. But let's just kind of look beyond that into the big numbers and see what's going on here. Because the big story here overshadowing a lot of this, is that according to the OBR, the likely size of the economy is going to look a lot different to how it did last time around. I'm afraid it's not all that good news. It's not because everything is going gangbusters. It's basically in large part because of inflation and because of statistical changes. Last time around, it was expected to go up like that. This is cash GDP, so the size of the economy was going to go up like that. This time around, it looks a lot bigger. But like I say, it's largely because of previous upgrades to previous numbers from the ons and because inflation is a lot higher. Nonetheless, because of that, that has a bearing on something else on the Chancellor's forecasts. Remember, he's got a lot of these fiscal rules basically trying to keep the public finances in order.

[00:22:22]

And one of them is he needs to get the national debt falling by the end of the five year forecast horizon. And last time it was falling just you can just about make it out there down by 6.5 billion pounds. What's headroom? That's headroom. When people talk about headroom, it is headroom against that rule. And because everything else has changed those numbers, the rule will look a lot different this time as well. You will have potentially a bit more headroom, maybe 15 billion pounds, maybe 2020, 5 billion pounds, potentially. And the question is how much of that the Chancellor wants to spend on cutting taxes? But the bigger question is really, can he make the claim to be a tax cutting Chancellor when look at the tax burden. This is the overall tax burden as a percentage of GDP. The higher this is, the greater taxes are. All taxes, by the way, income taxes and corporate taxes and everything else. And look under Rishi Sunak, it's forecast to get up really high. In fact, the highest level that burden has ever been since it's at least 1948. And even if he claims to be cutting taxes, it's very hard to see how he can get that line going down rather than going up.

[00:23:24]

So all of that to come in the Autumn Statement. It's going to be a big moment where we get more numbers from the Chancellor, more numbers from the government, and a sense of how they plan to fight the next election.

[00:23:34]

Ed Conway there. Well, our chief political correspondent John Craig is in Downing Street for us tonight. And John, one big move we're expecting tonight is a cut in National Insurance. Tell us more.

[00:23:44]

Well, this is going to be a budget in all but name. And of course, National Insurance cut is a tax cut, which Tory MPs have been demanding, and Sky News understands that. This will be one of the headlines in the Autumn Statement. Now, the numbers look like this. It's going to benefit, we estimate, 28 million people. And if it's a 1% cut, which looks like favorite, that would cost the Chancellor 5 billion pounds, and it'd be worth 380 pounds a year to someone earning more than 50,000 pounds. Now, there's likely to be permanent tax cuts for business, including making permanent a 10 billion pound a year tax break for companies that invest in equipment and technology. There'll be significant increases in benefits and the state pension too. Benefits up by 6.7%, it's understood. State pension 8.5%, preserving that triple lock almost certainly. So the Chancellor will talk about turbocharging the economy, going for growth, and on help for business, he'll talk about bringing in 110 measures, including slashing red tape and tax cuts for business. It's all about growth and jobs. And of course, to please those restive pesky Tory backbenchers tax cuts in the form of a National Insurance Cup.

[00:25:07]

John, thank you very much indeed. Well, a reminder too, we will have full coverage of the Autumn Statement from 11:00 tomorrow morning. And that is with Sophie Ridge here on Sky News. A camping trip by four teenagers to North Wales has ended in tragedy after their bodies were found inside an upturned car partially submerged in water. The boys, the oldest, just 18, had last been seen on Sunday. Shinki maruike has this report from Snowdonia.

[00:25:38]

They left together for an adventure and never came home. These four friends had driven from Shropshire to Snowdonia for a camping trip before being reported missing on Monday, triggering an extensive search and rescue operation and fears for the worst. A tip off from a local, followed by a forensics van at the scene confirmed those fears had turned into an awful reality. Shortly after 10:00 a.m. This morning, a member of the public contacted us reporting a vehicle having left the road between Beth Gellert and Flambrothen. Police officers attended and located a Ford Fiesta vehicle upside down, partially submerged in water. Tragically, the bodies of four young males were recovered from within the vehicle. This part of Snowdonia is rugged and remote, so it's understandable to see why the boys would have struggled on these narrow roads in what would have been difficult weather conditions on Sunday. They were last seen at Pork Madok at midday on Sunday, getting into a silver Ford Fiesta. Police helicopters, coast Guard and mountain rescue teams scoured a wide search area in the national park. Then the news the car had been found. A police cordon was set up near the village of Garek.

[00:26:52]

As night fell, what began as a search with the hope of a rescue ended with a recovery of four bodies, leaving the people here shaken.

[00:27:01]

The whole community does it struck a nerve and it's really the community feel it. I think we also feel great. Thanks for the emergency services. They have worked so hard and the search and rescue teams, they work tirelessly.

[00:27:17]

A day that began in hope, presented in darkness and loss, and for their families unimaginable pain. Shingi Marique, Sky News, Snowdonium National Park.

[00:27:29]

The government's chief medical officer said today that the first COVID lockdown came too late. Professor Sir Chris Whitty was giving evidence to the COVID inquiry into the pandemic. He admitted there were tensions between scientists and politicians and that the facts were often twisted to suit a political agenda. The disclosure of personal information about Nicola bully's health struggles was avoidable and unnecessary, according to a review of the police investigation into her disappearance. Lancashire police faced heavy criticism after revealing the mother of two who went missing earlier this year had been struggling with the menopause and alcohol consumption. The King and Queen have welcomed South Korea's president and his wife to the UK at the start of a three day state visit. Alongside the ceremonial welcome, the UK and South Korea are to launch talks on a new trade deal and sign a diplomatic accord as part of the visit. Now we finish Sky News at ten tonight. Back here in Jerusalem, across Israel, the friends and family of the hostages will be anxiously awaiting news of their loved ones. I spoke to the family of Yarden Roman Gut. Hamas fighters entered her home and kidnapped her, her husband and young daughter on October the 7th.

[00:28:50]

But whilst they managed to escape, she was taken by her captors and is believed to still be in Gaza. This is their story. A mother and daughter sharing a moment of joy. But October 7 tore this family apart. 35 year old Yeldan, who was visiting family in kibutz Beri in southern Israel, was taken hostage by Hamas. Her husband Alan and three year old daughter Gefan managed to escape. The family believe Yaldan was taken to Gaza and is among the almost 240 hostages. Even now, when we know that this is happening and she's there, I still don't really get it. It's something that you just can't accept and to really realize it's just sometimes like I feel like right now I feel like I'm telling you about the movie that I saw last week. I not really can realize that I'm talking about my sister. That right now when we're sitting here in this house, our house. She's there somewhere. Yeldan's brother, Leri says the past 46 days has been a nightmare and especially difficult for his niece.

[00:30:20]

She knows exactly what happened. She knows exactly what happened. She knows better than I do. She was there, she saw everything, she heard everything she didn't understand. Everything for her. Now, when she's playing with dolls, the dolls are hiding under the bed when there are bad people getting into the home.

[00:30:43]

Tonight, as plans get underway for some women and children to be released from Hamas captivity, yeldan's family are desperately hoping she's among those coming home. She misses mom.

[00:30:57]

It's been 44 days. It's a three year old that just misses her mom.

[00:31:08]

A story of just one family there, and there really have been very few moments of positive news since this start of this devastating conflict. The events of October 7 has brought so much pain and suffering to both the Israeli and Palestinian people. This is a significant moment in this conflict which will hopefully bring some respite to the people here. We'll continue to monitor the developments and bring them to you here live on Sky News. But for now, back to you in London, Anna Yalda. Thank you. Well, that was Sky News at Ten. Coming up, we'll take a first look at tomorrow's newspapers in the Press Preview tonight, we are joined by the deputy editor of Conservative Home, Henry Hill, and by the journalist and broadcaster Jenny Cleeman. And among the stories, we will be discussing this on the Autumn Statement, of course, from the front of the Eye. Their headline, The Chancellor will cut Personal taxes, but Interest rates will Remain high until 2025. The prediction there. Back with more detail on that in just a minute.

[00:35:54]

Well, this is Sky News in just a moment. Press preview. A first look at what is on the front pages. First, though, a reminder of our top stories this evening. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is asking his government tonight to approach a deal with Hamas that would result in some hostages being freed. The Chancellor is expected to cut national insurance in tomorrow's Autumn Statement, as well as boost the wages of the lowest paid. And full bodies have been recovered in the search for teenage boys who travel to North Wales for a camping trip. Well, hello there. You are watching the press preview. A first look at what is on the front pages. Time then, to see what's making the headlines with the deputy editor of Conservative Home, Henry Hill, and the journalist and broadcaster Jenny Kleeman. Welcome to both of you. It's the pre Autumn Statement night, of course, isn't it? So let's see what's on those front pages. The Eye looking ahead, certainly, to tomorrow's Autumn Statement, saying that the Chancellor will cut personal taxes, but expects interest rates to remain high until the year after next. The guardian says Mr. Hunt has given in to party.

[00:37:07]

Demands for tax cuts in a bid to revive the economy. The Times says his announcements will benefit workers and businesses. The Metro leading with the deaths of four teenage boys in North Wales in what it calls a tragedy on a lad's camping weekend. Well, the sun pictures all four boys in its front page with the headline So Young. That tragic story is also the lead for tomorrow's Daily Mail. And meantime, the Star tells us that punk rockers the Sex Pistols have declared themselves fans of Sircliffe Richard, even if the feeling may not be that a reminder. By scanning the QR code you'll see on screen during the program, you can check out the front pages of tomorrow's newspapers while you watch us. So let's head then to Henry Hill and Jenny Cleeman with our look ahead to the Autumn Statement. What do we know so far? Where do we start? Henry?

[00:38:03]

So the big sort of economic story is that Jeremy Hunt appears to be making full expensing permanent. Now this is a big business cut.

[00:38:10]

This is the Times, now, isn't it?

[00:38:11]

This is from the Times. Interestingly, it's a contradiction with The Guardian because The Guardian says he's only extending it for one year, but I think he's making it permanent. Effectively. That means that on qualifying investment in machinery, new technology and so on, businesses will be able to claim 100% of that expenditure against their corporation tax bill. That's been something that's been in demand for a while. It was introduced as a temporary measure during the Pandemic, but the argument from sort of tax economists has been if you want to get the full benefits of full expensing, it needs to be permanent, because that's the only way it really actually changes how businesses invest, rather than simply moving existing investment around. Beyond that, we have apparently there's going to be a cut in national insurance. It doesn't quite say what the rate is going to be in The Times, but there is going to be a cut in national insurance, then there will also be increases in the national living wage and benefits and pensions. So clearly, kind of in the last six months, we've gone from everybody having on their most serious face to all of a sudden there's an election around the corner.

[00:39:07]

And so good news, there's some fiscal headroom for giveaways and tax cuts. So obviously they'll be keeping at least one rabbit in the hat, hopefully to surprise us on the day. But that's the sort of overall headline.

[00:39:18]

And in terms of this giveaway, as it's been described, of nine to 10 billion pounds a year for business, the full expensing that you described, the Telegraph is reporting it as the biggest business tax cut in half a century. And in terms of the statements we're expecting to hear from Jeremy Hunt, there's been a few lines tonight from the treasury and they say after COVID-19 and after the Ukraine war and the energy issues. Mr Hunt will tell MPs that Conservatives will reject big government, high spending and high tax, because we know that leads to less growth, not more. It's sort of trussenomics back in a way, isn't it, really, this push for growth. I'll come to you in a minute, Jen. Well, certainly in its rhetoric, the front page of The Guardian puts it very well. Hunt bows to Tory demands for tax cuts and this is going to make back ventures happy. We know that the Chancellor has this headroom at the moment, 25 to 30 billion pounds to play with. The question is, what is he going to do with it? And lines on this we've supported families with rising bills, cut borrowing and halved inflation would suggest that they're in a really strong position at the moment, which isn't quite the case.

[00:40:29]

It's a sort of mixed picture borrowing for October being greater than predicted, even though borrowing from across the year is lower. So it's not quite the strong position, the ideal strong position that you would like to be in before giving these tax cuts away. But, yeah, the Guardian saying 110 measures are going to be announced tomorrow to boost Britain's stagnant economy. Yes, indeed. So. And we have to remember why there is headroom. It's because wages have been going up, because inflation has been soaring and hitting hard thresholds of income tax. Which gives the treasury more money, doesn't it? Apart from the debt interest, which obviously is very expensive for the government right now.

[00:41:05]

Oh, no, absolutely fiscal drag. The Conservatives really wanted to do sort of a big thing for workers. They could index linked tax thresholds. This is one of the kind of index that means basically pegging income tax thresholds to inflation, which used to be the case in the distant past, because currently it is the case, as you say, especially in periods of high inflation, that people can be earning, in real terms, the same money or less money than they were a couple of years ago. But they'll have been dragged into a higher tax band. And all of this has to be weighed against that so called stealth tax. Now, it's interesting about the trust Nomics thing, because it's got more a slightly meme quality to it, doesn't it? Because you can talk about low tax and small government, but taxes are still at historic highs. Full expensing. If they do full expensing permanently, that is a really substantial shift in how we tax machinery.

[00:41:49]

You might buy investment in tech, for example.

[00:41:51]

Precisely. And the whole point of that, and the reason that it needs to be permanent, is that if you only the big companies that make really substantial investments, or could they operate on longer investment planning horizons than three years? So if you only have a temporary one, all that happens is those businesses will take investments they were going to make two or three years down the line and they'll make them now, whereas if you actually make it permanent, then they can start planning around it. So that's actually really substantial if he does it. But for the rest of it, the Tories, they did a graphic today or yesterday where they were like, it's either us or high taxes under Kirstarmer. This is something the Tories did to great effect in the early 90s, but that worked in part because major had kept taxes low. Right. Whereas when taxes are already at historic highs, the idea of vote labor to get high taxes is just not quite as terrifying as maybe it would have been in different circumstances.

[00:42:38]

Sorry, as conservative home, do you support the reduction in taxes in whatever form they come?

[00:42:43]

I mean, I support taxes, I support tax cuts on a case by case basis. Full expensing is a great policy and if he makes full expensing permanent, that is probably the best economic policy decision this government has made in the course of this parliament. For sure. The rest of them cutting national insurance is nice for people, but on the other hand, how are you going to pay for things? Because he's increasing welfare, he's increasing pensions as well. Pensions would have been the obvious thing to try and get some savings out of, but they haven't done that. So this is the problem for low tax conservatives, is everyone's in favor of low taxes, but then you actually have to balance it by cutting some spending and very few they've got far fewer explanations for how they're going to cut the spending. And that's obviously what undid. Liz Truss as well. She did all of these. I sat there at the Tory conference with people with a notebook trying to work it out, when she was like, we're going to do this many tax cuts. It's like, okay, go, let's see if we can get the savings.

[00:43:27]

Absolutely couldn't do it. And that's the problem Tories needs to solve.

[00:43:30]

But we're not even talking about spending cuts, are we? We're talking about the need for spending in our National Health Service, for example, or to pay teachers properly, or nurses properly, or the doctors who are still on strike. All of these elements that still need more money. Yes. I mean, we are in a crisis and this is even though income tax bands kept the same since 2021 and I don't know how much it is 25 billion pounds in tax yield extra because of fiscal drag, we have a problem there. I mean, what is interesting also to me today was the announcement that came today, the kind of early announcement about the increase in the minimum wage, and also that 21 year olds will be eligible for it. And this is really going to make a difference to a very large number of people, but this is being dressed up as a way of getting people into work, a way of getting people off benefits. And as sort of double whammy, even though this is going to cost the government quite a lot and will amount to a 2300 pound pay increase for the youngest people who will be eligible for this pay rise.

[00:44:33]

They are able to kind of balance it somehow by saying we will not be paying them benefits elsewhere. But yeah, I mean, it's not like there's nothing for the government to be spending money on. We're in desperate times at the moment. Yeah. Ten pounds 42 to eleven pounds 44 from April next year, pre announced bank of England, though, forecasting a stagnant economy in 2024. The eye talks about the cut of personal taxes, but interest rates remain high until 2025. Presumably that's because inflation will have a tail on it, is that right? And it should be very slow to drop.

[00:45:04]

Yeah, absolutely. And I think also the bank is trying to expectation manage because we're not going back to how interest rates were. We had a historically unusual period of near zero interest rates post the financial, which lasted a long time. And that's not coming back is the impression that we get right, they may come down from their current highs, but we're not going back to that kind of very sort of zero point 25% or whatever it was for quite a long time. So that's why the bank is warning that. But also leading back into what we were discussing about the need for more spending, that kind of captures the challenge facing any British government, Tory or Labor, which is that you have these huge demands for spending on the NHS, social care, teachers, public works and all the rest of it. And on the other hand, you do have a stagnant economy, but the more money you suck out of the economy to try and keep those revenue expenditures going, the harder it is to jumpstart growth. There is a tension there between the need to meet these expenditures in the here and now and try and stimulate a more dynamic economy.

[00:45:54]

And in terms of welfare, which is an enormous bill, obviously, for the treasury, the indication of a tighter approach to that. For example, those with mental health or mobility issues will be told to look for work that they could do from home. For example, even being asked questions of will you remove somebody's bus pass? There'll be squeezes on things in order to get people to do that. So I don't know how you feel about that. Well, I mean, I don't feel very good about that. The idea of you're going to remove someone's bus parts to incentivize that was a question rather than an answer. No, I mean, I think you have to make but free prescriptions and legal aid are things that could be cut off benefit claimants if they don't look for work. I think that we need to be not having tax cuts if those are the things that are going to be happening in order to enable them. I understand that the government wants to look strong on benefits, but when we're cutting things to the bone to that extent, I don't think it's very but.

[00:46:47]

That is only I mean, as I understand the policy, it is only for people who active, who one are expected to look for work and then actively refuse to do it.

[00:46:53]

They are deemed fit to work, but do not look for employment. The statement, I think, from Downing Street was people are over three times more likely to be written off work under the Work capability assessment now than ten years ago. And I think that's the intention to address that.

[00:47:08]

The government has a lot of problems with the implementation of this. Stuff like that keeps happening. Whenever they introduce an exemption that's meant to be for a small minority, it ends up kind of ballooning. There are extra payments. For example, I can't remember the exact name, but there was a special cases payment that was supposed to go to sort of the people who needed it most. It ended up going to 80% of people who might plausibly be able to receive it. The problem with all of this stuff about fine tuning the benefit system is it costs money to do right. It's difficult to do. This kind of hard means testing. You need to have an awful lot of inspections. So the question is really, is it actually going to save money? If you consider the fact that you'll have to have more DWP staff, more inspections and everything else versus the number of claimants. Now, the treasury will have done the numbers and maybe that will balance out, but that's always the invisible cost of this kind of thing.

[00:47:50]

Okay, well, obviously full coverage of that, 11:00. Our coverage starts about 1230. We're expecting him to get on his feet. A number of newspapers are sort of with a sort of lingering headline trying to work out what's happening in Tel Aviv, the Times, the Guardian, the Financial Times as well, with a picture there about this potential hostage deal. Jenny yes. I mean, it's something that at last sounds like there could be positive news both for the hostages and for those who very much want a ceasefire in Gaza. This idea that there could be an exchange of hostages of the Israeli hostages, ten or twelve a day for four days, up to 50, 50 hostages in exchange for 150 Palestinian prisoners and a four day ceasefire. I mean, this ceasefire is for practical reasons. To get these hostages out will be very, very difficult. You can't have a war going on around them. These hostages will have been kept in very different places. They will be being looked after by militiamen, by different kind of criminal families underground. Gathering them will be difficult. This has to get through the Israeli Parliament, which is why these headlines are kind of presented in this caveatted way, because this isn't a done deal yet, but there is a sense that this is going to happen.

[00:49:04]

The US very much in favor of it happening. Something has to give. I mean, it's been six weeks now and there are 230 hostages, but it's thought that it's women and children on both sides that will be released. Yes, certainly keeping an ear to the ground for any developments on that. Both of you stay. There lots still to discuss, including looking at some of the failings identified in the investigation into the disappearance of Nicola Bully.

[00:50:41]

I'm Hannah Thomas. Peter. And I'm Sky's climate change correspondent. The UK is a world leader in wind power. It's part of the Congo Basin rainforest, which is such an important ecosystem, it's known as the lungs of Africa. We aim to be the best and most trusted place for news. She doesn't really enjoy speaking to the press and it wasn't clear right up until the last moment that she was going to sit down with me. I might be just very naive, but I do believe that change is possible. Otherwise we wouldn't be climate activists.

[00:51:34]

For the last 30 years we have known how bad it is. I'm not here to apologize, I'm here to fight for the next step.

[00:51:44]

You can see just the piles and piles of stuff, these, this sofas and people's desks and children's books and you can see inside this home here, people trying to sort out their home. It's just been devastating. I think everything's at stake. The future of our planet, the future of this beauty around us, the future of you and me.

[00:53:15]

Well, welcome back. You are watching the press preview with me once again, Henry Hill and Jenny Kieeman. Looking ahead to Wednesday's newspapers. And let's take a look at the case of Nicola Bully, shall we? It's inside the Metro and this is the examination into the police handling of it. This article suggesting that the behavior of a diving expert caused challenges to the investigation. So parts of the investigation criticized other parts, they say, like, for example, believing her body was in the water and almost to the day predicting when her body would be discovered was praised. But it's a bit difficult for police. Some of this, it was a complete failure of communications. They lost control of communications and they also lost control of communications when it came to this diving expert because they did not sufficiently say to him that he should not be talking to the media. And that's the tragedy of all of this. When you don't give the necessary bits of information and don't withhold necessary bits of information, that's when conspiracy theories start. That's when amateur sleuths start thinking, oh, what are they not telling us? And it resulted in an incredibly painful situation for the people who lived in that part of the world and also for Nicola Bully's family, who had to deal with people being suspicious of her partner and then these personal disclosures, whilst not illegal, as this report today found, were completely unnecessary.

[00:54:36]

We all knew at the time they were completely unnecessary. And it's your worst nightmare that you would go missing and personal details about your life and your medical history would be revealed. I really feel for her partner and her two daughters who had to go through all of this and it was all totally avoidable. It was a really unedifying, awful time in January when she went missing, where all of this amateur sleuthing took place. And it seems to be the case that all of this could have been avoided if they just thought better, thought in a more intelligent way about how to handle the messaging and all the video bloggers who turned up and all of the amount of traffic it generated was really extraordinary, wasn't it? Should we go to the Times? The announcement today that Top Gear would be rested or laid to rest, as some suggest?

[00:55:22]

Henry yeah, so it's not being formally laid to rest, apparently. It's too big a brand to do.

[00:55:27]

That and still operating abroad.

[00:55:29]

Absolutely. And of course, it went into Abeyance before Jeremy Clarkson revived it once and maybe someone will do it again. But, yeah, they've announced that they're going to basically pause or put it on rest it. Obviously Freddie Flinthoff had that horrifying accident in December where he ended up being airlifted to hospital and it turns out he was basically doing something in absolutely freezing conditions in what looks like a terrifying car that I wouldn't go anywhere near. And so he's now obviously back at work, but he's got those injuries which everyone's seen, and so they've decided, effectively that out of respect for him, in part, they're going to pause the show. Now, that's obviously one reason. The other thing is that Dopkia has simply not been doing as well since the original team left. There were obviously the reasons that that happened, but the original presenting trio or Jeremy Clarkson, they made it their own and they really made it into the cultural phenomenon that it was, at least in the UK. And they transferred all of that over to their next show when that was picked up by another producer. And it hasn't really managed to maintain the same niche since.

[00:56:32]

So you can see why the BBC, notwithstanding all of this, might still be like, okay, we haven't managed to keep the same thing going with a completely new team. Let's put it on the back burner for a bit and maybe come back with a fresh show in a few years time.

[00:56:45]

Okay. It's interesting. Many people will miss it. No Doubt, I think, and respect to him and fear of liability issues, no Doubt Too is part of the play there. Both of you for the moment. Thank you very much indeed. Henry Hill. Jenny Cleeman for now. Thank you. We'll see you in the eleven. Let's take a look at the weather.

[00:57:02]

Warm memories wherever you go. The weather sponsored by Qatar Airways.

[00:57:13]

Well, the rest of the week will be overall drier and less windy than recently, but it will turn noticeably colder by Friday. So northern areas will have a mild cloudy and windy start to Wednesday with outbreaks of rain. The calmer south will be mainly dry with patches of frost and fog possible under any clear skies. Low cloud will take over more of Ireland and northern parts of the UK during the morning with further spells of rain or drizzle. Wales will turn increasingly dull and damp too. Elsewhere, mainly dry, hazy spells of sunshine. Mild in the windy north and west and the afternoon looks similar with rain most persistent across northwest Scotland. But cloud will become more extensive in the south thursday then seeing rain moving across the north, introducing colder, brighter, more showery conditions.

[00:57:59]

The weather sponsored by Qatar Airways.

[00:58:04]

Welcome. Up next on Sky News at Eleven. Israeli officials say 50 women and children hostages could be freed in stages. We await a deal back with that in just a momentum.