Hey, we did a podcast five years ago called BreakStuff, about the 25th anniversary of Woodstock 99. It was awesome. Eight episodes hosted by Steve Hyden. We turned it into a documentary eventually for the Music Box series on HBO. Now that podcast is available wide. Go search for it on Spotify or wherever you get your podcast. It is called BreakStuff. Check it out. It's great. The Bill Simmons podcast is brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where you can find Against All Ods with Cousin Sal. You can find the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube, go search for it. We are also brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook, where... What is that thing they gave us on FanDuel's app? They gave us a nice little...

Yeah, I'll find it. It's called... What do they call it? They call it Guess the Lines with Bill and Sal, but I think that's got to be a coincidence.

You think that's real?

I'm not a conspiracy person.

What tab is that under, though?

It's right under the Futures Fusion Betting Odds.

Futures Fusion. Look for us. You'll see a bunch of the props and odds that we talk about on this This is AFC Part One podcast that's coming up. We're also going to be doing an NFC Part Two later in the week. This is the annual Over Under podcast. Fanduel giving all customers two profit boosts on NFL Futures starting Friday 8:30. And going through next week. They let us add a bunch of custom parlay bets in the future fusion. Plus betters can build fun player props, combines using the parlay builder. My favorite pics will be highlighted on FanDuel and on my social feed, and you can boost those pics with the profit boost or boost your own.

What We create these categories, and then we bet on them, and we lose, and it'll be our fault.

And then other people get to join.

Oh, that's great.

Not in the losing and in the win. The win. It's a collaborative. Yeah, we're going to hopefully win. Yeah, let's win this year. All right, let's do it. Afc Over Under is the annual pop coming up next.

First, our friend's from Pearl Jam. All right, we're taping this on a Tuesday afternoon in Los Angeles, California, home of two NFL teams, home of Guest Alliance since 2007.

Home of me and cousin Sal. We're back, baby.

I love it. I love it. I love it. I gave nephew Kyle the biggest hug you can even imagine. I think that counts as third base.

Yeah, he doesn't have a ton of intimacy in his family. I don't know. Did you handle that all right? He's got it now. I don't know. You're not a big hugging family, Kyle. I did what I had to do. We got through that hug. This is great.

This is great for me.

I was accused to be in a half hugger when I was in situ with my buddy, Sully's wife. Really? I gave her a full hug, and she's like, That was a good hug because you've always been a half hugger. I was like, That's the deep down most insulting thing anyone said to me.

It's also very weird because it's like, What am I supposed to do? To throw you in the bathroom here? What's going on? You want a full body? Yeah.

I don't know. I'm supposed to lean in Yeah, I'm not going to feel about it. I'll get yours, too. Anyway, shout out to Robin Solvin.

We are here. It's exciting football. It's great for you, too. You don't have to talk about these nonsensical NBA trades. They're never going to happen. Second freaking apron, CPA.

You don't have to do the NBA whole thing anymore. I told you, I'm now more in on the NFL than the NBA. I love it. It's great. I love it. Well, it's a super fun season because we have these rookie QBs. We have embattled QBs. We have a QB in Dallas who doesn't have a contract yet. We have some really bad QBs. It's all over the map. We're going to start with the AFC. Sal and I do every year is we do the over-unders. I feel like we didn't invent over-unders, but I feel like we were the first content brand to really be like, we're going all in on picking over-unders, and this is going to be an actual giving.

I'm going to say we invented over-unders. We invented it, fine. I'll take credit. Let me just say this one thing. Okay, last year, you were better than me, 17 and 15. I was 16 and 16. This guy, Chris Haynes, is a big fan of ours. Happy birthday. We are 25 and 12 over the last two years on teams we agree on, whether they're over or under.

Did we do locks last year? Because I have some locks.

I think we did, too.

Yeah, 25 and 12. I was only 17 and 15 last year. It's disappointing. I had some bad ones. I might be over Staird, which is usually a bad sign for me, but we're going to go now. We're going to start with the AFC East, a division that I have stared at over and over again. We have Jets and Dolphins fans in our life. The Dolphin fans are very testing, including John Jastrowski. I love it.

I love the back and forth on our text.

When One thing has changed in this division since we started this two-month process. The Jets have become the favorite. The New York football Jets, they're now the favorite. They are plus 160 to win the division. They're over and a half wins in a 17-game season. A lot of juice on that. Minus 172, minus 17 to make the playoffs, plus 850 to be the one seat if you want to get frisky. I hate that I like it. That's where I've landed. I hate that I like it. They have a ton of talent. I kept coming back to this number, Sal. Seven and 10 last year. Their quarterback last year couldn't win the backup quarterback job on a team with Jared Stinn and Bo Nicks. He's the third string quarterback, Zack Wilson on that team. That's who their quarterback was last year. Other people played. I can't even name some of the people they had. But it's just hard for me to believe with a much better offensive line that they spent money on with Brees Hall, two years out of the ACL with Rodgers coming back. It's hard for me not to believe that they don't get to 10, 11 wins.

This is the tricky one, right? There's a bunch that are at nine and a half, and you're like, Oh, that's easy to go 10, or that's easy to go nine. I think this is asking too much to go over nine and a half at minus 162. I know this has now become personal with me and Aaron Rodgers. This is not me, my cousin. We're not giving big hugs like I did to nephew Kyle.

You wouldn't do ayahuasca with him?

Wouldn't do ayahuasca with him. Haya Waskaw? Let's think about it, though. When was he last good? Let's play the R-shirt.

I have all this data. He He hasn't been good in three years. And then there's some other old QB stuff. Dan Moreno, age 38. 12 TDs, 17 pics his final year. Far of age 41, 11 TDs, 19 picks. Right. Manning, 2015, when they won the Super Bowl, he was 39 years old, 9 TDs, 17 picks. But it does get a little better the last decade. Brees, who I always felt we were betting against every week and who felt like he couldn't complete a 10-yard out. His stats were pretty good the last couple of years. He played He only missed five games when he was 40, only missed four when he was 41. Made the playoffs one of those years.

He's a guest on Cousin Sal's winning weekend this week. Oh, there you are. So I'm not going to say anything bad about you.

And Phil Rivers, aged 39, 24 TDs, 11 picks in that last year. So the recent precedent says it's not crazy that Rodgers will be okay.

But in 2022, I think he threw seven touch downs and seven interceptions in his last five games and then lost that game to Detroit. Age 38. I think we're spoiled by Tom braided and Mick Jagger, that these guys go on forever and they do what they do.

Rodgers has to do the same thing. Diane Lane. I'll throw Diane Lane in, too.

She was great. Yeah, throw Diane Lane in, for sure. But I'm not seeing it with him. I don't know. Also, if you had to bet over under 13 and a half games, he starts. This guy who might go on an ayahuasca retreat in Antarctica or host Jeopardy in Egypt. I don't know what he's going to do. His mind could be elsewhere. Plus, the election coming out, don't bet against them that week for sure. I don't know. I'm just not Somehow they have one of the easier schedules, but six primetime games. So I don't know. The league did them a favor.

Yeah. It's fairly easy the first few weeks, and then it gets a little choppy for them. But especially with the San Francisco game in week one that we'll be doing on Guess the Lines on Sunday. That's a game in week 10, I wouldn't like it for them, but I like catching San Francisco on week one. I don't know if Auyuk is going to play. Trimbleam is still holding out. That just could be one of those games. The Jets are completely healthy at this point. They got the Patriots twice. They play Minnesota, and they play Denver week five and week four. So they could be like four and one, five and all after first five in London.

They got a hot seat coach, and they're also the Jets.

So the case against them, the Roger's age thing, they're the Jets, all the baggage the Jets have, which I think if you really unpack it, the Jets have had some good seasons. They've made AFC title games. They won playoff games in New England against Belichick. The talent is what I keep coming back to with them. I did the dumb talent rankings thing I do every year.

They're a great fantasy team.

I had six of their eleven starters. I have marked down as pink chipper, red chipper, blue chipper.

Pink? Paul was Pink's the color of a chip, a good chip. I like to use different colors.

All right. Brees Hall is the number one pick in every fantasy draft right now because Macafre got hurt. Wilson's the seventh best receiver, the eighth best receiver. Their offensive line I had as like, it's not one of the top five, but it's definitely in the 6-10 range. It's a great spot for Rodgers. If you're really going to dig in, you're just going to say, Robert Sal, if they'd hired Mike Vrabel, they would have won the Super Bowl. I get that logic. But if he's just worrying defense, that's it. It's like, Rodgers, take the offense. I know nothing about offense. I'm just going to coach this defense and be fired up guy on the sidelines. They did go 7-10 with Zack Wilson.

All right. But they beat the commanders, the Jets, the Giants last year. That game was pathetic. Nobody wanted it, and the Patriots had hung it up. So there's some weird wins there. Look, they're not going to be terrible. I think they're 9 and 18, and that's why I just have them on there.

One of the things I like about the division bet is you can swing against it. There's a couple of teams like this this year. They could be 4 and 1, 5 and 0 after five weeks, potentially, and then there's going to be good value on some of the other teams, and maybe you just zag the other way. But to me, I think there's one playoff team in this division. That's where I landed. It was them versus Buffalo and Miami, and we'll talk about Buffalo in a second. But I just think that they had less variables for me. When you have that much talent, what has to go wrong? Basically, if you have to have Rodgers go out three plays into week one last year, or you have to have Salah just be a complete disaster and cost them a couple of games. Other than that, I couldn't really see the turf. The turf causes so many injuries for Jets players. I just couldn't see a ton of ways it could go wrong for them.

I guess I oversimplified it and said Rodgers isn't as good as we remember him. But I think that's fair. He might not be. Nine wins seem more likely than 10. I don't think they've taken the torch from Buffalo. I don't think there's more to dislike about Buffalo.

Well, let's talk about Buffalo. Buffalo's over as 10 and a half, which has a lot of juice on it. Now, the other way, it's plus 134. They want you to think Buffalo is going to love it at six. They're plus 195 to win the division, which at the start of August was plus 160. So nobody's betting that. They're plus 126 to miss playoffs. They're right in that zone that we're going to cover a little later. There's always one or two teams from plus 125 to plus like 160 that just don't make it. And you just want to grab the right ones. They're plus 70 for the wild card that I thought was tasty. Then if you want to get super crazy, under seven F wins is plus 260. Oh, come on. Last year, they were 11 and 6, and all six losses were six points or less.

Yeah.

Last five years, they're 58 8 and 24. And Allen is either the second, third, or fourth best quarterback in the world, depending on where you have him. I would probably have him second or third. This is the year we find out how good he is because the team, they have like 60 million bucks in wasted cap space. They had a bunch of dudes leave. Their safeties are gone. Their center is gone. Top two receiver are gone. They got 60 million in dead cap space. It's all telling us this team is going to suck. And yet I don't want to pick Josh Allen to be in single digits.

Yeah. I don't know why you would. I think every year we start this podcast looking for a way to not pick Buffalo. I don't know why we don't want to like him. It's a little like Tom Cruise. Why do people not want to like this guy? Josh Allen is doing his own stuns. I like Tom Cruise. I know. Right.

Of course. He solved a feud with you and Jeff Ross. Exactly.

He carried a lot of weight with me. He brought movies back.

He taught us about Scientology?

Of course. He's Tom Cruise. We have Tom Cruise playing quarterback for the best team in the division.

He taught us about motion. Did Did you see that PSA he did with Christopher McQuarrie? Oh, right. Yeah. About motion on your TV, how you should turn it off. So the movies experience. Tom Cruise does some good work.

You wouldn't bet against that guy.

I wouldn't.

If there were box office numbers, you wouldn't bet their under.

I bet against him in a high contest or a slam dunk contest.

That's about it. All right. That's Fine, but still going to do it with Buffalo. Look, they've won three consecutive AFC East titles. We want to pick against them. And I feel like unlike the others, they needed to win five games down the stretch in a row to make the playoffs. And we all knew they were going to do We all knew they would do it because they have this extra gear. They get better when it gets colder. You can't say that for any other team, and they're not the Jets. So I love it. I think replacing Diggs and Davis is addition by some traction.

Yeah, neither of us like Diggs.

Yeah, Diggs will get to Houston later on, but that could be a mess.

I thought this team had a little bit of an odor to them.

Good or bad?

Bad. Milano, when he went out until December. Because that was like, Milano is going to be back. He's healthy. At least to have him. He's so good. He does so many things, and then now he's out. That pushed me over the edge with it. I actually have them under 10 and a half because I think 11 is too... They could still win 10. They could still go 10 and 7, so I'm not even necessarily betting against that. But 11 and six with the amount of new blood they have, new captains, all these rookies they're leaning on, all these receivers, who's their number one receiver? Everyone's like, Shaqir, watch out for him. I've watched Shaqir here the last couple of years. We have no idea if that dude can handle that.

He had better stats than Diggs last year. I get it. It's going to be Keion Coleman, the FSU rookie, and Curtis Samuel. Rookie receiver.

You flip a coin on this.

I just feel like he gets it done, Josh Allen. It doesn't really matter who's out there. They get it, they figure it out.

They have no room for error for him if there's a four-week Josh Allen injury. Their offensive line is 100% worse. It's interesting. I've been going on the team reddits, and 99% of the time, it's useless. But then occasionally, there'd thread where somebody's like, Hey, guys, what do you guys think? And people just lay out these compelling cases. It's interesting with the Buffalo fans, I think they all feel like this is potentially a throw away year for them, where it's like, McDermott just gets fired if it doesn't work out. But on the other hand, they're all like, You can't count us out either because if this guy hits and this guy hits and we have Josh and new assistants, maybe the vibes is better.

They're one play away from making the Super Bowl, right? They won a game against the Steelers. That Chief's game could have been anyone's. I I don't think this is a rebuilding year at all. They end against New England, the Jets, and then at New England again. They have your team two out of the last three.

Well, can I give you their last two years of playoff games?

Yeah.

They barely beat Skyler Thompson. They got smoked by Cincinnati, completely manhandled. They beat Pittsburgh in round one. Yeah.

Chief's game was close.

Choked at home. Choked at home against KC. Right. I just wonder, and I I feel this, we're going to talk to San Francisco in part, too, but sometimes you miss your window. That would be my fear with them. Maybe they just got passed by the Jets. I think the Jets have just way more talent. If you line up their roster side by side, Josh is the only reason to pick Buffalo.

I think he starts six more games than Aaron Rodgers this year. This is a gutty team.

That's the thing. See, that's why I hate this division because I'm now stuck with Big Shot Bob Salah and Rodgers, who hasn't been here in three years. You are stuck with him. Now I'm stuck I'll put that as a pick.

But I don't believe that you're going on the team reddit page. This is something your slack guys are saying.I do.

I go on the team.

Kyle, there's no way.

No, I go on the team. I have a whole thing. I have an AFC reddit with all the bookmarks. Well, just because I want to make sure I'm not missing anything. But not with every team.

That might be more pathetic than what I do here, filling out every single win, every single game for every team. My family won't even talk to me anymore because I know all this nonsense. Look, I'm going to show you.

My bookmarks, NFL 2024. There's my AFC reddit and my NFC Reddit. And my NFL Reddit. I have under for the bills.

And you have over. I'm slightly over.

So you're going 11 wins for them?

Yeah, 11 and 6. So this is not good. So so far, we disagree on the two.

Yeah, but we knew we would hate this division. We're going to agree on this next team. The Miami Dolphins. I don't know. Over is nine and a half. Juice on that minus 134. Their division is plus 210, plus 950 to be the number one seed. If you want to go 11 plus wins for them, that's plus 160. If you want to go the other way, do under eight and a half, that's plus 166. I wrote for every team, I wrote better, worse. Better was unclear for me with the Dolphins. I couldn't really think of a way they got better unless you're saying Vic Fangio is the defensive coordinator. It was so bad that now they're better off and there's new blood. Worst, they lost Wilkins. Their entire middle of their defensive line, he's gone. Tua lost a bunch of weight. That makes me nervous. Last year was like, Tua has got to get bigger. He's got to withstand. Now it's like he's back to his skin.

I'm glad I didn't lose that weight I talked about. He's talking about me on my back.

He gave the weight to you. Phillips and Chubb, both coming off major injuries. Phillips is playing. Chubb is out first four weeks. Last year, they were one and six against 2023 playoff teams, and their two best receivers got paid. I I just don't like a lot. When you throw in the schedule, I'm a pretty easy under for the Dolphins.

I think sometimes it's hard for us to separate the playoff version of its team and the regular season. The Dolphins are the AFC Cowboys. You know what you're going to get in January. They were 11 and 6.

They have an owner who thinks he's also the GM. Yes, he's the GM.

They have a coach.

They're only paying three guys? I guess that part's true.

Their head coach is auditioning for John Travolta's drug dealer in Pulp Fiction 2 or something. What does he look like, Mike McDaniel, the way he dresses it?

I thought he looked like Brock Landers when we hit the '80s, and he's filming the documentary for Amber Waves, and he's just wearing the sunglasses and looks like he's just blown a big bowl of something.

That's probably better. Was that on Dolphins Reddit?

I didn't see that on Dolphins Reddit, actually.

I like that. No, listen. Here's why they're a good team. They have this cheat code in Tyreek Hill It was good for seven free points a game or a 40-yard bomb a game. That's a free play. Maybe two or three of those a game.

A kid a game.

What? And a kid, yes. And definitely a kid by halftime.

A lot of kids.

But I don't think... Most are not going to have 20 touch downs, and I get it. That stuff is going to catch up to them. But they're a bad January team. They're not good in cold weather. But I do have... They're one of these nine and a half that I think could get to 10. You really have to make a decision on it.

I'm not against it. If they get to 10, they're making the playoffs, and there were just other teams I like better. It's funny. Football is weird. We're in the middle of it talking about it every day from September through January, right? Yeah. Then seven months passed and you just forget shit. I think Miami is one of those teams where the last time we saw them, they were rolling over and dying against Kansas City. Terrible. They wanted no part of the cold weather. Jj, who we watched the game with, our friend as a Dolphins fan. I called the JJ couch, the dead JJ couch that he just was basically sunk into as the game went on. There's basically a chalk outline.

The outline is still there.

It was so bad, and now their team is worse. Why am I supposed to get excited about them? Also, the league had another... It's almost like what happened in the Eagles last year. The league had another year now to figure out some of the shit they're doing. I just think the variance for them is Shades the wrong way. But this is why I hate this division. If you told Miami was going to win the division, I wouldn't be shocked.

We just know who's going to be in fourth place. We know who's going to be in fourth place. But points win games, right? They led in total offense, 40 plus points a game. They led in yards per play last year. I still think that offense is there.

I have them as a second half swimming team because their schedule, they go home Jacksonville, home Buffalo on a Thursday night, too, which is a nice advantage for them at Seattle, home Tennessee, at Pats, and then a bye week. But then right around week nine, where we go at Buffalo, at Rams. But then the last six games at Green Band on Thursday, Home Jets, at Houston, San Francisco, at Cleveland, at the Jets. It's a gauntlet. It's tough. We see these teams, there's two every year that just die when they get to week 10, week 11. They're a candidate anyway, just because of the type of team they have, and it's a warm weather team.

This might be one of your, like you talked about, teams that get off to a hot start, and then you can bet them to not make the playoffs, if you like that. Because they should be four.

You zag the other way on them. Yeah. I'm going under. They feel nine and eight to me, and it could actually go worse if something happens to Tua. We're just penciling in Tua now for 17 starts a year. I don't know. Something's off with that.

I got them at 10. So if you're on 9, 10.

So we've disagreed three and a half.

I think we're going to disagree here, too.

The case for them is like the Jets. They're loaded. They have Phillips, Baker, Howard, Fuller, Ramsey, Holland, all on defense. Those guys are all good. They got two They have speed in the two-a-piece. Maybe they get out so strong September, October, then they could hold on those last six weeks. I don't feel great about going under with them, but I'm going to do it. I feel awesome about this next team. The New England Patriots, my beloved Pats. The worst team I think we've had since I was a senior in college. The offensive line is so bad, and all the Pats fans I've been talking about. Then finally, they're on the last game of the air, Sunday night, Collinsworth and Tariko. Drake may as a couple really nice throws. Oh, Mike. Oh, my God, Mike. This kid, what are you seeing? How did he do that? You got to love the drink. You got to love it. This kid, he's 21 years old, Mike. And then five minutes later, he's running for his life on every single play because we have no left tackle, we have no right tackle, and we have no center that can snap a ball.

Now, it was the backup center in there, but it is an absolute travesty. They have 50 million in cap space, though, which I guess you can roll it over like it's a skin in golf. Yeah. But the QB coach combo is in the bottom three in the league. In my ranking system, I'll do a minus two if the QB or the coach is that bad. I did minus four for that combo.

You don't like that? He called out where he basically announced the starter where he didn't have to.

Yeah, he's talking about how May is playing better than Berset, but we'll see what happens. It's like, okay, cool. If you don't play May, that means you're telling us your offensive line is so terrifying that you don't want to put your 20-wing, your real QB in of it, but now you're just throwing this other guy out of the way. You can't talk about stuff like that.

I have something for you. I have a little gift. No, don't get nervous. It's actually a nice gift. It's somewhere between stupid and nice, and it's going to live in nephew Kyle's garage, I'm guessing, 10 minutes after this. But this is a pylon signed by Drake May. Really? Yeah. Isn't that nice? Why are you laughing, Kyle? It's a delightful gift.

This is great.

Then anytime he dives for the a pylon and loses the ball, you'll think of me, right? Or get sacked by the pylon. The Drake May pylon. Yeah.

How did you get such a great thing?

I know so many people.

You're like red and shoshang.Un Unbelievable.Thanks, Sal.

No, of course.

I love Drake May, and the only thing that matters this season is that Drake May doesn't get hurt, that he doesn't get put in a situation like what Carolina did to Bryce Young last year, where they just threw him the wolves and he got the shit kicked out of him and ran for his life and had no skill position guys. The Pats have bottom three receivers in the league. Berkert is probably the worst quarterback in the league or in the top three. The offensive line has to be the worst. All right. They're terrible. I'm looking at some of these bets. First of all, here's a sign for you. Their over is four and a half right now with some You sign the over, which I don't understand. The under for me is my first lock. Worst record, which a month ago was plus 550, is now plus 260 on FanDuel.

Because of you, you're screaming about how bad they're going to be.

It's not my fault they can't block.

When did Did he really turn up? I feel like you were maybe going over until the June on trade.

Barmore getting hurt. There was a case for them to have a top five defense, and Barmore went out with blood clots, and he's the best guy in the defense. And once they did that, I think they decided to trade Judon. They needed both of those guys to have some push and some.

But this was not going to be a 10-win team. So you understand that's probably a smart trade to get rid of Judon.

It was 32 years old. Once Barmore went out, it was a great trade.

He was not going to resign.

I'm not against trading Judon. Yeah. The offense is going to be... I don't know what the record is for least amount of points. There were some crazy Jets numbers last year where...

I can't believe this. We're going to be talking Celtics week three because you're already out on this.

I have all these. This is why we I'm going to have this is how I learned to gamble in college because the Patriots are terrible.

Let me make a case for that.

Can I do one more? Sure.

Go ahead.

Under three and a half wins is plus 240. I think that might be my favorite bet of any future. I looked at their schedule and I Honestly cannot come up with four wins. I went there a million times. There's a lot of winnable games. If the Jaguars are good, and we'll talk about them in a second, they don't even have- Seattle, Giants, Chicago, Titans, Cardinal's, Colts.

These are not. Titans. Anywhere from six to eight wins, maybe four. Who know? They go to London to play Jacksonville. There's always a surprise in the division. You know they're going to beat the Jets somehow. I don't think there's a lot of room if you take the Under.

I think there's- There's going to be room when I take the under three and a half. I'm going to have room.

I read those games, those winnable games. I haven't met five and twelve. I could be wrong, but I think they play with a little pride for-I'm going under lock. Wow.

The only other person who seems to see what I'm seeing is Lombardi. There's this whole Belichick thing to it, too, where Belichick-He's a Belichick guy. Look, he's the worst drafter free agent dude of this decade, probably in the NFL. Nobody missed on more pics and did more dumb signings. I fully can see that. But their defense was, for what for losing González and Giudon early in the year. It was top 10. And not having an offense. Their defense kept them in every single game. And now they have Mayo, who's never coached before, pretty inexperienced coaching staff. Alex Van Pelt, who's the offense coordinator, who Cleveland fired last year. They're going to have a bottom five or six coaching staff.

They're going to be tough to stay in the top 10 defensively.

They're going to have no home field advantage either, Sal. People aren't going to go to these games.

Oh, he called me Sal. I know he's serious now.

Sal?

Well, just to call me out by name.

I'm just like, that's how serious this is. I used your first name.

I understand it does seem like Barmore and then Judon getting traded, and they used eight of their nine draft picks on offensive players, which is not Patriot's way at all. So it seems like they're going the wrong way.

Well, the other thing, they needed a left tackle. They had, I think, the third pick in the third round, and they should have traded up and taken the guy that the Chiefs ended up taking who went second to last pick in the second round, who everybody's like, This guy's awesome. He's going to be our left tackle for 10 years. It's like, of course, the Chiefs have outwitted somebody again.

They did it to the bills, too. If this is where the guy works out, they traded that.

Right. All right. I think it's going to be rough.

You can get them at 100 to one for the AFC or 300 to one to win the Super Bowl. Do you just do the 300 and then hedge once they make the Super Bowl? Or do you do the 100?

Why are you doing this to me?

This is so unfair. Because I have one year where I'm able to do it. One year? We've been bad this whole decade. I'm picking you over. I think you get to five.

Wow. So we disagree on every single AFC's team.

Jesus. Look, I'm going to be wrong, but about at least half the time.

And you have no locks in this division?

No, no locks. I really do have it within a half a game for all of them. All right.

I have under Pat's four and a half lock. We'll take a break. We'll get to the AFC North. Hey, football fans, the weight is over on FanDuel, the NFL. It's back. You can start the season with a big return on America's number one sportsbook, my favorite, FanDuel. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets, guaranteed, when you place your first $5 bet. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats view, live, play by play, and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. As you know, we are doing AFC Overrunners right now as you're listening to this. You could just go right and do the pats adjusted over under. Three and a half wins, go under. Grab the plus 240 or whatever it is right now and enjoy yourself. Visit fando. Com/bs, and you can be like me and bet against your own favorite team. That's fanduel. Com/bs. Never waste a hunch. Make every moment count more with Fanduel, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. You must be 21 plus in present in select states or 18 plus in present in DC.

First online real money wage or only $5 first deposit required. Bonus issue does not feature all the bonus bets, which expire seven days after a seat. Restrictions apply seat terms at sportsbook. Fanduel. Com. Call 1-800-Gamble or visit rg-help. Com. All right, we got so into that path segment. I forgot to set you up. You're going to do a prop for every division.

Yeah, I like this player prop. Tyreek Hill, you heard of him? Thirteen plus, no, receiving touch downs plus 360. I don't understand this number two of the last four years. He's hit this, 13 and 15 touch downs. He has 119 catches each of the last two years.

Thirteen TDs plus 360.

Yeah, why not?

I mean, if he plays 17 games, he's probably getting that. That's the whole thing.

Yeah.

All right, AFC North. This is one that I basically went to the buffet and tried a bunch of different things. I'm like, Oh, the teriyaki beef. I'll put that on my plate. Oh, there's some chicken. Then at the end, you just go back. You just throw up. No, then you just go back. You're like, You know what I should have gotten is just the prime rib looks. I should have just gotten that. That's Baltimore. You go and you bounce around. You look for all these reasons not to take them. There are some reasons. They lost Patrick Queen. Their offensive line is definitely unequivocally worse. Mike McDonald, who did a great job as their defense coordinator, is now coaching Seattle. They led the league in turnover differential, which usually shifts back to the middle the next year. They beefed up at cornerback. Everybody likes the first rounder they took. They added Derrick Henry, who's going to be really fun to watch on this team. But Sal, their over-under is 10 and a half. I am going over. I'm also taking them for the division at plus 145. It comes down on this. Lamar is 58 and 19 as a starter.

Just don't overthink it sometimes. When he's healthy, they win three out of every four games. Sounds good.

This division is very good, though. It's very tough. You're not going to run the table on it. You can't go six at all. It's just too hard hitting, too physical. I'm with you. If you go under, you're asking for a three-game regression because they won 13 games last year. But something about replacing the defensive coordinator and your best defensive player, it just doesn't sit right with me.

I just don't think- You're zagging.

Yeah, I'm zagging. Five in a row. This is crazy. I read that stat, how if you agree with the both of us, then we go crazy. But again, I think they win 10 games. I just can't get them to 11. He's a great regular season quarterback. Four toughest schedule in football at KC, Vegas, at Dallas, Buffalo, since he to start. So if you want to jump on that to win a division, you might get better odds by week five if they're three and two or after week five. So I think they lost a lot. Roquan Smith and Lamar deals bankrupt the team. They lost 15 players in free agency. You went over most of them. I think it's a very competitive division. It almost doesn't matter who the quarterbacks are for the other teams.

I guess the question for me is they went 13 and four last year, and I just need them to go 11 and six this year to hit that over, which I think would also be good enough to win the division. Is this team three wins worse? I just don't see it. I could see two wins worse, but three seems ambitious. Last year in the playoffs, they beat Houston, and they had that 17 to 10 loss against KC.They.

Were home, right?They.

Were home.

We'd score 10 points at home.

They sucked. It made me so mad. But I don't... I think I bet them over 10.5 points. It was the most upsetting. I had a really good payoff. That was the most upsetting. I just hated it. And yet it felt like there were two, three plays where they could have actually stolen that game somehow. Kc didn't do anything the last two hours of the game. I think you're right.

We carry the biases we remember from January. You didn't because you're still going over. But with Miami and Baltimore, and I know you're going to pound Dallas, even though Dak is a good regular season quarterback. We remember what happens in January, but we're doing over-unders. So that's just the September through December.

Top five coaching staff. If the things that I'm supposed to be worried about are they lost Patrick Queen in their O-line We've seen teams patch together the O-line. The part that as I kept thinking about it, you've Derrick Henry, but then you don't have that good of an O-line. I was like, What's that good? What if he's just getting hit behind the line and you spend $52 in your fantasy league on him? It's like 15 carries for 31 yards, and you're like, Oh, my God, they can't block. I just feel like that coaching staff will figure it out. All right. They've done it. They do it year after year.

But not the Patriots. You can't match together an offensive line. All right. I have them at 10. You have them at 11.

They have this. They have their by weeks, week 14. They're at the Giants, week 15. Home, Pittsburgh. Home, Houston on that Wednesday Christmas game Four days later and then home for Cleveland. I think that Wednesday game, the home team must have the advantage. Christmas with no day's rest, basically. Yeah, you would think. I feel like if they can get to, can they be seven and six heading into that four and then sweep it? If they're eight and five, they'll go three and one. From a talent standpoint, talent everywhere. The Zay flowers, you feel like he's not a top 10 receiver, but he's at least finally a number one for Lamar.

Yeah. I hate his guts, too, because of that January game. It was the same thing. But yeah, he'll do well in regular season.

All right. We're going for six in a row now. The Cincinnati bangles, over 10 and a half, minus 120, the action on that. Division plus 165, playoffs minus 230. You can take it for a number one seat at 701. I really tried to talk myself into this one.

Which way?

Pro. Okay. They played 11 playoff teams last year. Got better at safety. If you're going to ding them, ding them on bad running backs, probably bottom five with your team being 32nd in the league with running backs. So bad that there's been some Dalvin Cook That never looked better.

That'd be nice.

He's Dallas. Look at him. He used to be good. Skechee cornerbacks, and they lost DJ Reader, who was a stud for them. It comes down to this for me. I'm going under because I am more scared of Joe Burrow's wrist than any other NFL body part, including anything on Tyreek Hill. I just can't get over the wrist thing. He doesn't seem 100% to me. I feel like they've been dancing around it. Our Ringer fantasy guys, they feel like that's a do not draft list, the entire team, because if something's really wrong with Burrow, that's also going to affect Chase. It's too frightening to me. I can't do it. I'm going slight under. Ten and a half It feels like a 9 and 8 or a 10 and 7.

Well, I defer to you because you're an expert in wrist mobility. I mean, we've said that for years. Talked to your college. I'm with you. So we finally have-Wow, we did it. Yeah, I think I love Burrow. When he's at his best, he is top two. You talked about top two or top three. I love watching him in January, but he's got to be seen as a legitimate risk at this point. He has three major-ish injuries in his career. I don't know. But it is weird that you look at it, and I'm going to conflict, too. It's like this jet situation. They were nine and eight last year. Why can't they get to 11 with Burrow? But with the Rogers. But their backup played pretty well with them. You were okay with the Rodgers. Brian was okay. But yeah, I'm with you. I'm not buying the Burrow buzzcut. Reader is a big run stopper. Their offensive line is still in the bottom 10. Every other year, they protect him. Lou Adarumo, we were screaming his praises, and that defense just fell apart. It was top five passing yards allowed. Eleven and six, they always get off to a slow start.

They lose their first two or two out of three for no reason. So could easily lose three in a division. They have KC, Dallas. I think they screw up somewhere else along the way. I'm going under.

Yeah, they Start out with the Pats, so we know that they're going one and oh. But then at KC, week 2, home Washington Monday night at Carolina, week 4. If they're not three and one coming out of that, potentially four and oh, but at least three and one. If they're like two and two coming out of that, it gets worse and worse and worse. They have an at Baltimore, at the Chargers combo in the middle of the season. They're playing at Dallas. They play at Pittsburgh and Cleveland, all the NFC. The case for them, they have some easy They have New England, Carolina, Denver, the Giants, Tennessee, Washington, and Las Vegas. It's a last-play schedule, right? Yeah. That's what gave me pause. But I just feel like if the over-under was nine and a half, I feel like I might go over on it. But the 10 and a half, the 11 and 6 just seems ambitious. I also like the wild card for them, a plus 190. I just thought those odds would be lower.

If the Ravens win the division, you're saying? Yeah.

You're basically better than the bangles to be a playoff team. There's a catastrophic one where it's the under of seven and a half wins is plus 440. Interesting. That would be the something's really wrong with Joe Burrow bet. I can't get there. I don't have two quarterbacks.

Eleven is a big number for injured quarterback.

I went under on Burrow, and I went under on Josh Allen, two of my favorite quarterbacks in the league, but I just don't like the situations.

All right. Well, we finally agreed on one.

Also, not a lot of talent on this team anymore. That's the other thing. I only had five chippers on the team. Burrow, Chase, Tee Higgins, barely, Hendrixon, and Stone. Then Taylor's, I think in that, what, 9-13 coaching range? It's a good coach.

Right in there. They need the kid from Georgia at 18, Mims, to pan out on offensive line because like I said, you know how that goes with them.

Would you see about how big their offensive line is? It's the heaviest offensive line in the league. I don't really know what that means. Yeah, they have the heaviest, and I think Philly's second. Wow. Where it's like almost 1,700 pounds of people on their offensive line.

I like that.

All right, so we agreed on one. Next one is Cleveland. I think we're going to agree on this, too. No, I don't think we are.

Go ahead.

You don't think we are? Well. Over 8.5. A lot of juice on the over minus They are plus 4:50 for the division. They are plus 138 to make the playoffs. If you're banking on Deshawn just absolutely murdering them this year, the under for 6.5 wins is plus 300, the under for 7.5 wins on Fandel is plus 184. They were 11 and 6 last year, and then the playoff started. Houston absolutely beat the living shit out of them. They lost 45 to 14. Their defense was awesome at home and shaky on the road. It feels like they're worse. Denzel Ward had another concussion. He said five. So you got that. Their offensive line is 100%, no question worse. Their left tackle might not be ready for the first week. They tried to trade Amari Cooper. That floated out there. I never like when that happens. They were six and two in one-score games in 2023. Usually, it reverts a little. Here's the biggest thing for me is no first-round picks in 2022, '23 or '24. When you miss a three-year cycle of just not adding anybody awesome, I think there's damage. My take on this going under is this is the year that his strong trade officially morphs into shape as the worst NFL trade of all time.

Well, this is it. I think he's unsalvageable.

This is the big test. But I will say this. Do you know what his record was last year? He did play a bunch of games. It was five and one last year. N'shon Watson was five and one. Okay. I don't know which way you want to go with this, but this team won without nick Chubb, and they won with four or five quarterbacks. I think they started their fifth quarterback in week 18. So pretty damn good. I think it's because of that defense, which you're right, showed up at home and not on the road. But for the first two months, that was a top 10 defense of the century. Leading podcast. It was phenomenal. Miles Garrett, defensive player of the year last year. They re-signed to Darius Smith in five and a half sacks. He's practicing again. I think it's a Top 3 defense. They brought in Devon Bush and Jordan Hicks.

So you're in.

Not only am I in, this is my division winner. I know Joe House is with me only because the number- Joe House is with you? Yes. What else do I need? I don't need anything else.

Oh, man. I'm sorry.

Plus 450 is way too high. These teams all beat up on each other. They were great last year. Why couldn't they do it?

The Watson thing just seems like it's never been worse.

That's a when I said he was five and one last year, but he was. Joku is a great tight-end. They had some weird names. They're receivers. They have Cooper, Elijah more, Judy. This guy thrashed from Louisville. He's been good in the preseason, the rookie. I really like it.

Really good offensive line. I'm just worried about that first week, which is one of their most important games because they're playing your team-My team. And Michael Parsons, and that's the week where their offensive line might be a little dingy. But yeah, I had them as a top five offensive line if they can actually get healthy. All right. And we'll see. Conklin's coming back. There you go. I can't get there. I think the Watson thing singlehandedly ruins it for me.

I just don't-What about Jamis? I look for Comeback player of the year. They're carrying four quarterbacks.

But we know Jamis isn't a starter. How many years in a row can he get a chance?

Did you know Flacko wasn't a starter? Any guy they put in there last year to win.

If Jameis is playing, count me in on betting against the Browns.

I love this team.

You love this team?

I I don't know why. I really do. I think it's crazy to have him at eight and a half after what they did last year.

It's because of Deshawn.

Their starter's back.

You've read some of the stories, right? He's defiant. He's been angry. I haven't read it.

Don't ruin it for me. I haven't read anything about him. I don't know anything about the guy.

I think the vibes are all wrong.

Okay.

Last year was everything somehow went right last year, even though nothing was going right, and that never works twice. I have for this year's Browns in the division, not the Browns, the Pittsburgh Steelers, over eight and a half plus 116. So you actually get a little plus action on the over. Playoffs plus 114. I think their defense is going to be the best defense in either conference. I try to talk myself out of it because their schedule is just horrifying. That's it. This gauntlet they have from week 11 on, home Baltimore at Cleveland, at Cincy, home Cleveland, at Philly, at Baltimore, home KC at Cincy. And the Baltimore-KC are a Saturday-Wednesday combo. So the reasons to pick them are that and Russell Wilson. Russell Wilson is still way better than Kenny Picket last year. Look, what did he go? 8-9 in Denver? I guess he didn't play the last couple of games for them, but they weren't a disaster. Picket was a disaster for Pittsburgh. I don't like Russell Wilson, but the one thing he could do is take whatever step drop-Show us.and wing it downfield. Show us. And wing it downfield to receiver's running fast.

He doesn't make turnovers. All they need is no turnovers. Can you just throw it deep? This is going to be a team that just wants to win 16, 13, 19, 16, 17 to 10. That's who they are. They're the Browns from last year. I have them as over, and I have them as a playoff team.

Wow. I have them over. I think I have them right at nine. I don't have them as a playoff team, but I like all your reasoning. I think if these guys stay healthy, with Queen and Watt and Hayward and Hy Smith could be top five that we've seen in a long time. Joey Porter Jr. Coming along. They got Dante Jackson from the Panthers for cornerback. Cam Sutton suspended for the first eight games. Yeah, I didn't love that. I wish the quarterback were a little better, and I wish that schedule allowed them for two weeks where they can come up for air.

Well, one thing is, it really seems like they have a good offensive line this year, which is different than previous years.

They spent number 20 and number 51 picks on all lines.

Yeah, and they seem pretty happy with it. This was another thing that jumped to me. First of all, they made the playoffs last year. They were 10 and seven. So the over and under is they're two less for whatever reason. But they've spent 165 million in cap on their defense, which is 25 million more than any other team in the league. To say they've loaded up is the all-time understatement. On top of the fact that their defense was hurt last year. Watt missed a bunch of games. Fitzpatrick missed a bunch of games. Kam Hayward was banged up. So if they can get all those dudes together, I just think it's going to be this year's Brown's defense.

Definitely. Six AFC North games in the final eight.

So I have second best division in your mind? In the whole thing? Out of either conference.

In the NFC North thing?

I have one division I like more. You like the NFC North? I don't want to spoil it. There's one I like more.

It's not the AFC style.

I'm trying to raise suspense. All right. This is the second best division, though.

That start is interesting because I think they got to go two and one or three and no. So at Atlanta, that's the Arthur Smith game, right? At Denver, obviously, Russell Wilson game, and then the Chargers, which, well, they're home for it anyway. Would have been home even if it were on the road. So definitely a start that they have to capitalize on.

Yeah, I don't even know what the odds are. I'll have to look this up during the break, but the odds for Baltimore Pittsburgh, Santee, Cleveland as the exact order, that's got to be like 20 to one, right?

Baltimore, Pittsburgh.

Pittsburgh is the second one.

This is so hard to pick the four. This is the hardest one.

We have a couple of exact orders we really like. Yeah.

I love I can look at this. I think this helps if you know the first-place team and you know the fourth-place team, and then move from there.

So that's 16 to 1.

Is it?

Yeah, I like that. Give us your prop for this division.

What is it? Ravens to score a countdown in every game is minus 115. In December 2022, the Browns held them scoreless, or they scored three. They didn't score a countdown. It's happened once in 93 games. You're getting even odds for something that's happened once in 93 games. I really like it. Obviously, a lot of talent. You could have bad luck in a rainy December game, maybe, but the Ravens score. They get Nianza.

I like it.

Thank you.

I'm trying to think of how that would go wrong. The offensive line is not great. Maybe there's a game where they just can't get it done inside the 20.

They might have a couple of games where they score 10, but I think they're less reliant on Tucker, believe it or not.

The other case against Baltimore that I considered is just that Lamar has had seasons where he'll just miss some games. He was healthy last year, but it was in the back of my head. But my two big predictions for this division are the Burrow thing, I don't like the odor of that. I think this Watson thing is just done. I think he's going to be the most unpopular player in his city in the AFC by November because I think the team is pretty good. I just don't think he's good. I don't think he has it. I don't know if he knows how to lead a team anymore.

I don't know if that's the end of their season. If he's not good.

The Flacko saved their season last year.

If they catch it early enough, they'll get maybe a Bayly Zappi to come in there and save the day.

Bayly Zappi. You have Cleveland as the awesome defense team in out of Pittsburgh. Yeah. All right, we'll see what happens. What's yourOh, you did your prop. So let's take a break. We've got a new segment brought to you by our friends at Yahoo! Fantasy Football, and it's all about winning. Why do we play fantasy football, Sal? To hate ourselves? No, it's to win.

No good running backs.

With Yahoo! Fantasy football, win in your league, and someone will win $1 million. All you have to do is play in a private Yahoo! Fantasy league. Enter the sweepstakes by September fifth. Enter now at yahoo-sports. Com/simmons. I love Yahoo! Fantasy football, and especially the new app, because easy to use, easy to set up, lets you focus on the game and the fact that there are no good runningbacks. Yahoo! Fantasy football bringing us this segment to help you win your league. To kick off our Yahoo! Play to win segment, let's talk drafting. Any last observations before you're about to be in 19 league?

Well, you're going to get kicked out of this Yahoo! League, right? No. I like the league where you get kicked out.

They don't have to kick out. All right.

See, I would do it for 500 grand, but someone gets kicked out. I don't know, man.

So you're out on all runningbacks?

Except Rico Dattle. Yeah.

All runningbacks are the Cowboys. Watch out. So are there any runningbacks you like?

Bries Hall, that's about it. Not too many. No.

Bucky Irving for the 10th of May. So spend money on receiver, quarterbacks, tight ends? That's it. All right, that's a good tip. Put those tips to use and create or join a Yahoo fantasy football league today, yahooSports. Com/simmons. Remember, someone won $1 million. All you have to do is play in a private Yahoo fantasy league. Enter the sweepstakes by September fifth. Enter now, yahooSports. Com/simmons. No purchase necessary. Open in all 50 US states and DC for ages 18 plus. And September fifth, 2024. See official rules at yahooSports. Com/simmons. Slashrush. Coming back with the AFC where everybody is on the Houston bandwagon to the point that- I'm sorry, by the way, I didn't have a gift for you for that division.

I should have brought a gift for you for everything.

Yeah, that would have been nice. I'm sorry.

Go ahead. Houston.

I would like that. I don't know what your gift would have been for this division, but everyone's on Houston.

We skip it because we never get it right.

You think it's this division we don't get right? We're getting it right this year. I don't get it right. I feel really good about this division. Houston, over nine and a half wins. There's juice on that. Division is plus 105. Conference, plus 800. Number one seed, plus 800, plus 200. Twelve plus wins is plus 225. If you want to go nuts and vote them, best record, 14 and one. They made round two of the playoff Last year, we're 10 and seven. They loaded up. Pass rush is better. D-backs are better. They added Joe Mixon. They're going to be healthier. Their offensive line is healthier. Year two, C. J. Stroud. They're the number one offensive DVOA. If you're going to go worse. Autry suspended for six games. They had good turnover luck last year. Won't be the same. They have a weird schedule where the first six games are easy, weeks 12 through 15 are easy, and then the rest of the schedule is hard. I'm going to go here, Sal. I'm going over. If C. J. Stroud is special, which I think he is, I think he's just in the 10, 11 wins club from now on that these other guys are in.

If he's going to be healthy and you're going to get him a good team, He should win 11 games from now on, going forward. I'm back in the Houston Texans, not only to win this division, not only to win the conference, but to make the Super Bowl. The Houston Texans.

The Super Bowl?

The Super Bowl. There's one Super Bowl this year. I have the Houston Texans in the Super Bowl.

I feel like a Jackass for taking them under now, but I also love it.

You love this act on me? I do.

I think Stefan Diggs ruins C. J. Stroud.

He's the third receiver.

He's fine. Yeah, I know, but he's going to be eyeballing them when he doesn't get like six targets.

He's just running 12, 13 over the middle.

No, they didn't sign him to be a third receiver.

C. J. Stroud is cool.

I know.

He's one of the coolest initial names of all time.

His podcast stuff has been great.

I loved watching him last year.

I interviewed him on Radio Row. He's tremendous. He could play in the NBA.

I'm in on C. J. Stroud now. I like it. Took me a while. I didn't trust the Ohio State thing and the fact that his name was C. J. Yeah, you didn't like that. I didn't like it.

First-place schedule now. It's just a different ball game. Everyone's gun them for you. By the way, if you look at their games last year, Stroud was impressive. The rest of the team wasn't. It's hard to explain, but just go through them. Not too many impressive games.

They had one receiver. Del got hurt halfway through the year. Somebody else, one of the other receivers was hurt. They were basically playing with Nico Collins and Schultz. Right.

But the Colts were bad. They took advantage of it. They faced seven playoff teams this year, three in the conference finals last year. I think this is tough. I know it's easy early on schedule-wise. I'm not going to say they're going to be a bad team. I could see them going nine and eight. Denel Hunter is a good complement to Will Anderson. He had 16 sacks. But watch this Stefan Diggs. He is going to be a story starting week two.

You really think the third receiver on a really good team could singlehand lead? They'll just cut him.

Is nine and a half the Vegas zone for over-unders. I feel like it's such a track.

It feels like there's been more nine and a half this year than ever before. Well, so here's the case against Houston. By the way, I'm going to pick somebody else to make the Super Bowl later. I just wanted to get your reaction for Houston when it makes Super Bowl. I have a second Super Bowl pick in the AFC? In the AFC, yeah.

Oh, wow. This is going to be some game.

Nobody's ever done it. I researched it. Nobody's ever picked two Super Bowl teams in one conference. If you go with the Can't believe they missed the playoff's list and the can't believe it list, which I told you before, it's between minus plus 125 and plus 160. So last year, the teams that missed, Jets plus 110 Then Saints plus 126 and Jaguars plus 160. This year to miss the playoffs, Bills plus 128, Green Bay plus 128, Miami plus You're going down the line, Houston's plus 154 to miss the playoffs. They're basically like, Come bet on this. I look at that list, Bills, Green Bay, Miami, Jets, Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, trying to find two, three teams from that. I could see Houston.

This is from the, Can't believe it.

Can't believe it, but there's always three of them that make it. Anyway, that would be the case. There's too many people on the bandwagon to the point. For sure. I really like the team, though.

The biggest problem against it is it's a very winnable division. I've gone back and forth with these teams.

One other thing I should have mentioned, Ryan's a top five coach now. Has anybody been raved about who's coming in the league as a coach in the last five years? Everybody fucking loves him. I don't think so. They're basically nailing the QB coach thing. It's like the reverse of Brissette and Mayo or Antonio Pearson, Gardner, Mitchell. They have the opposite where they're just like, if you're going to rank both those categories, one to 10, they I have a 10 and a 10. A good enough team to put around those dudes. I'm in.

All right. I'm slightly under. Okay. I think we still agree on two.

Jacksville, eight and a half is the over. Division plus 270. If you wanted to go nuts and have them for 11 plus wins, plus 250. Playoffs, plus 116. This is my favorite team to discuss in the AFC. They went nine and eight the last two years.

This is your Super Bowl team, right?

This is going to be my second Super Bowl pick. Last year, they were eight and three and fell apart. Trevor Lawrence, I tried to add it up. He had four injuries. He hurt his knee, his shoulder, his ankle, and he had a concussion. To the point that even I was out on him, even last week when I was doing the pod with Steve Ruiz was talking about them, I was like, Yeah, I'm out. Then I did my final round of research this week, and I was like, This is just a classic Zag team. Bilo. Just classic Bilo. Nobody's on them. If you actually look and you go under the hood and you look at the engine, it's like, They were 8-3 last year, and just weird shit happened. They definitely got better. They had Eric Armstead. They beefed up their defensive line. It seems like they lucked out Brian Thomas Jr. As receiver. He's the best receiver Lawrence has had. They have a new center. They took Buffalo Center. You know they were 10th in DBOA last year on defense, Jacksonville?

Yeah. That's before their big guy changed his name. It's not Josh Allen, or Josh Allen-Heinz or something like that.

Yeah, I like it. It's a Hyphen guy now. Huge move. Really, the only way they got worse was they lost Calvin Ridley, but they replaced him with Thomas. The over seems like a gift. Eight and a half. They got to get nine and eight. I like it a lot. I think they got 10 and seven. Good. We agree here.

Great. The London games are becoming theirs, right? Right. They've won five out of six, and now they have Chicago and New England, and they stay there. They have a tough start. This is another one you might want to wait on before you pick them to win the division or something. Although you have Houston going to the Super Bowl, so you're not going to At Miami, Cleveland, at Buffalo, at Houston. So you might want to wait. You're right about Armstead takes away the double teams from Trayvon Walker and Josh Allen-Heinz. They're going to be able to rush the passer.

They're going to be able to throw the ball. The London thing has turned into one of the biggest advantages in the league, and especially they're going to be playing Chicago and the Pats back to back. I'm just penciling those for two months.

If you gave the Chargers an opportunity to be the home team in London, they would take it in a second.

They'll be like, We'll take all eight.

They'll be like, We'll take all eight. 14,000 miles, but still worth it. So they were really good team, Jacksonville, for a year and a half. Then we just dropped it because they fell down the stretch.

There's a Lawrence piece to this season with them that if he has it, we have to see it, I think, this year. He's got CJ Straub in the division now, and that's a potential rivalry that could be really fun. But he's out of excuses. If he's a franchise, they paid him like a franchise. He got a huge contract. He's got weapons. They've spent a lot of capital, free agent capital, draft pick capital, just trying to get him receivers and weapons. And Travis at the end and all that stuff. I just feel like it has to happen this year. I like their schedule.

They end with Las Vegas, Tennessee, yeah, and then Annapolis. That's what I was going to say. So if they're in it, it's right there for them at the end.

Yeah. Last five is at Tennessee, Home Jets, at Vegas, Home, Tennessee, at Indy. Yeah, 10 Winsfields.

Gabe Davis, Christian Kirk, Zade Jones, and Brian Thomas is good, solid. It's like no Tyree Kills in there, but they're all going to get the job done, I think.

All right, we're both over. Next one is Indianapolis, a very tough one to figure out. Their over is eight and a half. Some juice on that, plus one on four, divisions plus three, 10. Playoffs plus 152 if you're excited about them. You can also go under seven and a half wins, plus 172 on FanDuel. Last year, they're nine and eight with Minchou. If you're going to say, Here's how they're better, I really like their receiver as a group with Pitman, Downs, Mitchell, the rookie everybody's going nuts about, and pierce, four good receivers as a combo. Jonathan Taylor, no drama with him this year. Latou is a pass rusher. They drafted him, maybe. Then the Richardson piece. But the Richardson thing, I can't get there. I want to see it. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but I'm not going over on them until I see him complete a bunch of passes. I know it's all there. He's basically like Cam Newton 2.0, whatever you want to call it, but I want to see it. From what I've seen in the preseason and what I've read, he seems really raw. Not to mention, he got hurt twice last year.

So Flacko is their backup, ironically. I couldn't get there.

Yeah, I took him under also, so we'll agree on this one. When did these over-unders come out? In March or something. I must have flip-floped on the Colts 15 times. I'll probably flip-flop during this segment. I'll probably go back to the over.

I might pick them to the Super.

Yeah, you already have them in your Super Bowl. But they were weird last year. First of all, they're 0-9 and 1 in week one games in the last 10. So count that as a loss against Houston. Their rest advantage goes from plus 4 to minus 17. That's big. Last year, they won nine games without their starter, but they also played 10 quarterback rookies or backups. Right. So you go, and I don't want to lend too much credence to the preseason, but I got that same feeling with Anthony Richardson. Like, why are we going so crazy about this?

He feels like he's going to have some great moments and some awful moments. And there's going to be times when you bet on the Colts at home minus four, and he just does nine terrible things. Then there's other games when he does what fields did a couple of times for the bears, where he just single-handedly, athletically, just took over the game.

We should come up with a category for guys we wouldn't mind having on our fantasy team because Anthony Richardson is also always. I see.

I think he's too high in fantasy.

But still, you wouldn't want to bet him in a game. He's got to be too high in fantasy.

He's higher than C. J. Stroud in fantasy, which is nuts because- That's a little crazy. It's bonkers. C. J. Stroud. Well, we'll get to him when we do the- They're in New Denver, Tennessee, Giants, all cold weather, so on the road. There's also a world where Latu is not that good as a pass rusher. Taylor is just not the same guy anymore. Two years ago, Taylor never comes back. I like other teams more in the division. All right, we're both under them. Then the last one is Tennessee. The over for them is six and a half, some juice on that, plus 104 division plus 950, playoffs, plus 360. If you want to go the other way, worst record is 10 to one. If If you want to go under 4.5 wins adjusted plus 235, they're six and eleven last year. They lost Mike Vrabel, replaced him with Brian Callahan, drafted a left tackle, spent money on cornerbacks, Sneed and Awuze. They signed Ridley. Hopkins is gone for what, six weeks?

Yeah, I think about that. They got Tyler Boyd, too.

No Derrick Henry. Drop off to Powered.

I don't like it at Yeah, I don't either. This is another weird team. You would think they'd be in a rebuilding stage, except they did spend a lot of money. They don't seem like a team that is packing it in this year, but that offensive line is supposed to be 30th in the league.

It's so bad that it's in the vicinity of the Pats offensive line without being as bad. But yeah, you have that combined with Will Levis, who's probably the bravest quarterback in either conference who just takes huge hits. So it's like, all right, they can't block.

Mayday's in the coffee is brave, too.

This guy loves to just take on everybody. I don't see him playing 17 games. Malik Willis, they just traded for a seventh-round pick.

That was funny. Look, they have 14 1:00 PM games. They have one primetime game at Miami, which they won last year. That was weird. They're going to get off to a slow start at Chicago Jets, Green Bay, and at Miami. Where do you see these seven wins coming from?

I don't see it. I didn't even have an easy stretch for them in the schedule. That week 17, 7:00 to 13:00 stretch, other than that Pats home game, is a nightmare. Their division is going to be really good. I had in the better or worse, they lost Brable and Derrick Henry and replaced them with the Hawk to a Girl.

Really?

She's from Nashville, right? Yeah, I didn't see that. I think they lost that trade. Wow. She doesn't want to be known as that anymore. Now she's being known by her real name. Oh. Yeah.

She has a real name? Yeah.

No. She's weird. What's her real name? Does she have a real name? Jack doesn't know. Jack's pretending he doesn't know.

Jack, come on.

Haley something?

Yeah, Haley something. Bill has her going to the Super Bowl.

They're at Chicago Week One, Home Jets, Home Green Bay at Miami. That feels like an own for starter rou.

That's what I mean. So we're going to get seven wins the rest of the way. They might have some nice fantasy numbers once in a while, but their past rush, even when the autry gone, it's going to be even worse.

When I did the Chippers, It's Ridley and Simmons and Sneed and Stonehouse, one of their special teams guys, and then we're done. Their QPs are minus two. I had them for six points total. It was one of the lowest teams.

Stonehouse. I think you're just combining your friend's names.

I'm making up names now.

What's your college friend's name?

We have both under six and a half on that. I wanted to do a borderline lock for that, but the new coach might not be bad. I was reading about him, and I love Rable, but they might have actually hired a decent coach.

That's the thing. I probably would have given them an extra win just because of Rable. But now that he's gone, it's a iffy. He might be good.

We forgot to mention the Cleveland section that he's helping out Cleveland. The what? In the Cleveland section. Oh, Rable.

Yeah.

All right, what do you have for a prop for this division?

I have Jackson in the division. I have Trevor Lawrence, five or more touch downs, a plus 420. He had five in 2022. He had four last year and set out, what, a game and a half and was probably injured for more than that. Plus 420 for five rushing touch downs. Jump on that. It seems pretty good.

I hope he takes it easy and doesn't hurt our over though. That's true. I have C. J. Stroud, Most Passing Yards in the League, plus 700. I have a parlay, which you could do on Fandil on our little parlay thing. Where do we find that? I forgot to... I'm going to plug the- The Fusion thing? Futures Fusion. Mahomes and Stroud, both to throw for 4,000 yards, plus one on one. I'm going to get Fandil to boost that, too.

They owe Can you do that? You got that foul?

I'm not going to tell them to boost it. I'm just going to tell them. You guys boost this. You boost this right now. Boost this. I forgot to mention when we did the AFC is the Bryce Hall rushing title was like nine to one plus 9:50. Yeah. That seems high. Who else is going to win the rushing title?

Can I tell you something?

I think- You're not doing season leader bets anymore?

No, I am. But have you done a draft yet? A fantasy draft? No. It's depressing. They used to be six or eight solid runningbacks. You have to decide, Oh, I got to bid on this guy, or I got to take him early.

Oh my God, it's there.

Now it's like, No, you're nuts if you don't take Béjian Robinson with the fourth pick. I'm like, Am I? Brees Hall, same thing. No, he's the best.

What happened? I'm in a guillotine draft this year. You are doing what? Well, somebody brought me in as their partner, and we ended up with the first pick, and we took Bresaul.

Were you excited about it?

I was. Did you get tingling? I like Bresaul. Yeah, I got a little tingling.

I don't know. What happened to the running backs? What could go wrong with taking it yet? I'm just saying these running backs. It's nuts.

Okay, we're taking a break, and then we'll do the AFC West. One last thing in the AFC South. Exact order on FanDuel. Houston, Jacksonville, Indy, Tennessee, plus 650. Would you think about that one, flipping Jacksonville and Houston?

I might do both, right? What's the other way?

Jacksonville Jacksonville, Houston, Indy, Tennessee. 8 to 1? 10 to 1.

Wow. Oh, yeah. Do both. There are some of these you could do both. I think it's pretty safe.

Because I don't see any world where Jacksonville and Houston are one, two in some direction unless Richardson just becomes amazing. Yeah.

So we need Tennessee to come in last, basically.

People really do like Richardson. I hate, like, zagging against him. It's fine. But I just think he's... You're asking a lot, man. You're just going to come in. You missed all last year.

Right. I don't love it. You're already sending three teams to the Super Bowl from that division. What are you doing?

Well, here's the fourth. Afc West, Kansas City, over 11.5 wins. Not a lot of juice on that, actually. Minus 1, 12. Division minus 270. Conference plus 350. Super Bowl plus 550. Number one seed plus 3, 80. Thirteen plus wins, all adjusted, plus 186. You go 14 and 3, they're plus 3, 30. They do that. How are they better? Might be better receiver because it looks like Rasha Rice isn't getting suspended. And they added worthy, who just looks like a cheat code and a Hollywood brand.

They got rid of Kaderes Tony, which is probably the biggest plus.

They got rid of Kaderes Tony, and Valdés-Cantling. New left tackle, the rookie, Seematea, that We talked about earlier that it looks like they stole at the end of the second round. Last year, they had 15 fumbles by people that weren't their QB. Their right tackle alone had 19 penalties. Their receiver said 34 drops, which was third in the league. Turnover differential was fourth worst in the league. It was one of those years. They went 11 and 6. Everything went wrong, and they just because they have such good infrastructure, pieced it together, won four straight games, won the Super Bowl. It feels like they're better this year, so that's my takeaway. I went over. I think 12 and 5, 13 and 4, seems realistic to me. So over for me.

I went on there, but slightly 11 6, and it's stupid probably to bet against them. They're nine and 2 to the over on their Andy Reid in the last 11. Ten or more wins in 10 of the 11 seasons. Their defense is excellent. It's so underrated. They have 57 sacks last year's second. This Steve Spagnola has four rings from being defensive coordinator. You don't hear his name a lot. Maybe I'll say it like four or more, five more times. But I'm looking at their schedule. They have a buy before San Francisco. They're 21 and three after the buys. The only thing I worry about what this team is. They saw that they could do it all on the road, which we hadn't seen out of the Chiefs until last year. They wanted to play off games on the road. Do they cut back? Do they not try as... I don't want to say they don't try as hard in the regular season. Is this something maybe to consider with that?

I worry about the Kelsey piece just because he's basically said, I know I have to be ready for four rounds. So he's pacing himself. Someone like that. But I think the fact that their line is definitely going to be better, I think makes of this easier for them. Their receivers are definitely going to be better. I talked last week on my pod about this worthy, the way they're using him as this toy for Andy Reid. He's basically like this Tyreek light discount Tyreek. Just send him in all these different weird motion things.

Chiefs won the Super Bowl. They should have the fastest guy on the planet on the team. Let's see what this does.

Part of me wonders if the over-under is going to come down to that first game of the season against Baltimore, where they're home against Baltimore. It looks It's like their receivers are going to be a little banged up for that game. Joe House loves Baltimore as an underdog already. I just wonder if that's going to be the swing game between 12 wins and 11 wins.

It used to be a gamey that first Thursday.

Yeah, it's not as easy anymore.

They're extra games at San Francisco, at Buffalo, Houston. They play the AFC North. I think the question is, what do you see them doing in the division? Is it a five-in-one route or is it four-and-two?

Might not be because the division is better. The biggest reason, other than, I actually think they're weirdly better than last year, but I was looking at the Pats, the second run of the Pats from basically the 2010s, 2010 through 2019. They were 14 wins, 13, 12, 12, 12, 14, 13, 11, 12. They made three Super Bowl, two Super Bowl losses, three conference finals, eight out of 10 years. I'll let you get this.

I know this.

It's fun. The memories are great. I'm really enjoying myself.

Some of those twelves were probably under the wind total, by the way.

But there's just the infrastructure. They had it. The Chiefs from 18 to 23, so that's six years, 12, 12, 14, 12, 14, 11, three Super Bowl's, one Super Bowl loss, two conference finals. And I just think it's stupid to bet against them for any reason unless they tell us it's time, which the 2019 Pats hit that, too, right? It was finally, Well, I can't bet against them. And then finally, but at that point, we had won every bet year after year after year. And the Chiefs with Mahomes not even in his 30s yet. I just don't see why you would go under.

Because I think they could be 11 and 6, and we could be looking at each other like, Well, they're the best team going into January. They could still be 11 and 6 with that schedule. Black Friday against the Raiders. They'll probably win that. Christmas against the Steelers. They have some weird... They play every game day of the week except Tuesday. It's very strange. That's not a lie.

They're trying to squeeze them on a Tuesday game. I'll tell you this, Super Bowl plus 550. I like it. I haven't gone to the Super Bowl.

Well, have we named this? Didn't we say we should just name this fund where you bet Mahomes' MVP separately with the Chief Super Bowl, and every three or four years you'll collect? It has a mutual fund. It's just going to win.

I have Houston-KC, AFC title game. I really wanted to take KC for the Super Bowl. I'm joking, obviously. I already picked Houston. The three peed, I couldn't get past it. The fact that We've had the Super Bowl since 1967, and we've had all these awesome teams, and nobody's won three Super Bowl in a row. Nobody. It hasn't happened once. I was just like, I really want to take the Chiefs again. I was just like, I'm not doing it. I'm sure we're going to hear the rhetoric next week about, Oh, they'll tell you they don't care about the three people. Trust me, they do. They know nobody in history has done this and all that. I just don't... So they're going to try harder? These teams try hard, whatever the situation is.

Do we think it's all We have to mention Taylor Swift there, right?

Well, we have that, too.

Well, I just feel like it's just too easy for them to breeze through everything the rest of everybody's life.

Right. Well, you even think there was some karma stuff to share with them, like got in all that trouble. They've had some legal issues. Sure.

Right.

But we know that doesn't work because the Patriots won three Super Bowl after Aaron Hernandez. So it's like, throw that out the window, too.

Oh, you admit he's guilty. I'm glad.

I do think he might have been guilty. I looked at the case again. So the case for Houston beating KC in the AFC title game around two whenever it happens for me, because I was really trying to think, do I really believe this? I don't want to do the nick Wright. I'm just throwing crazy takes out. Hoping to get aggregated. Sorry, nick. I really think Houston, if they have the one seed in their home and Casey has to go there and it's in a dome and they have their coach, I could see them beating Casey. I'm less bullish on them going to Tarahead. So I think part of that Houston case, that's why I like the one seed, too. I think they have to get the one seed.

I'm going Buffalo for the conference for that same reason. I think they could do it on the road. Again, coin flip game against the Chiefs last year. Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes. You're not going to convince me that one is definitely going to play better than the other.

So you're picking Buffalo to make the Super Bowl? Buffalo is making the Super Bowl. Why didn't you make that pick earlier?

I thought we were waiting on it.

But we did the Buffalo odds. The Buffalo Super Bowl odds. Yeah. 17 to one. Yeah, why not? Nine to one for the conference. You're in on Buffalo.

Yeah, why not? Wow. You said they have a top two quarterback.

They do.

All right. Okay.

Anything else on KC or should we keep going? We can keep moving.

Okay.

The Chargers. Over. Eight and a half wins with juice. Everybody loves it. Playoffs plus 118. Division plus 390. Eleven plus wins, plus 220. Last year, 5 and 12. The New Coach Theory, one of my favorites. 2022, it hit with Daybaugh and the Giants and Peterson and Jacksonville. 2023 hit with Dameco Ryans in Houston. 2024, our nominees are Mike McDonald in Seattle, Rahim Morris in Atlanta, Harbaugh in the Chargers, or Dan Quinn in Washington. Kyle Brandt made the case Harbaugh on my podcast last week. I completely agree. You go from Brandon Staley to Harbaugh. I don't know how many wins that's worth, but they were 5 and 12 last year, and it's got to be worth at least four. I am going over, but I'm going a little even more over than that. I have them as a playoff team.

Whoa. Yeah. All right.

I do.

I think they're a year away. I'm going over also. I hate it because this is one of the few sexy pics that everybody likes. I didn't like it either. I'm going with it. But Harbaugh comes with that new energy, maybe new fans. Can they get fans to show up at Sofi? Can they get a home game, an actual home game?

You have a better chance of going downtown LA and not being freaked out by somebody.

The only... Yeah, that's not going to happen.

God, I drove downtown LA today to come to the studio, and I was like, Snink Pusket and escape from New York. I thought the music was going to start playing.

I'm sleeping over. I'm not leaving. Gavin is doing great job. You're going to figure it. I don't know about this roster, though. That's the only thing. Is it as impressive as... Like, Harbrooke will win games, he could do the ra-ra thing. He can get his players stuck in elevators and say it was an accident when he was really just testing them. But is this roster better? I guess Edwards and Dobbins for Eckler is okay. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were injury prone, and so now they have Josh Palmer, Lad McConkey, the rookie, DJ Chark.

Receivers aren't great, but we've seen good quarterbacks and good coaches win with mediocre receivers. Herbert already being hurt made me nervous.

Defense is getting a little old. Bosa is great, but missed 14 games in two years. Mac is 33.

I had five guys marked on there. Mac was really good last year. Bosa, Max, Samuel, James, and Gilman. Their kicker is awesome, Dicker. They'll win them like two games. Their offensive line is much better. I mean, that's a huge part of, if you're to make the case for them, they took Joe Alt, top seven pick, Bozeman, that brought him in, and the Harbaugh vibes, which by all counts, it's night and day. I mean, you I remember. The new Coach there fundamentally comes down to whoever was in there before was the worst substitute teacher ever. It was the first 40 minutes of a high school movie where you had the worst teacher ever, and then the star of the movie comes in, and all All of a sudden, the kids are studying and they're showing up for the projects.

There's Morgan Freeman. Chains the doors.

That's Harba. That's Harba. It always hits. In football, these teams, we have a salary cap. They all have draughts. They all go up and down a little bit. For the most part, the talent's around the same. If you have a coach that's here replacing a coach that's here, we know that it works, and they have the quarterback.

I'm with you. Listen, it comes down to the chargers over the last how many years, their most impressive games have been losses every freaking year, four of them. I think the schedule is going to let them get to at least nine wins.

How about this start? Home Vegas at Carolina to start the year. They're easy QB opponents. Teams that are playing that have either, I would say, a below mediocre or a worse QB. Pats, Saints, Carolina, Tennessee, Vegas twice, Denver twice, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, maybe Tampa Bay. That's like most of their schedule. They don't have to play. They're getting till at least nine. They play Mahomes twice. You're right.

Their extra games are Arizona, New England, and Tennessee. That's all you need. I just wish the second easiest schedule. I just wish their roster was a little more impressive.

They were also minus two, Pythagorean last year, A stat I barely understand where it tells you they were 5 and 12, but they should have gone 7 and 10. Yeah, I can't even say it. I don't know. Pythagorean?

Yeah.

Las Vegas, over 6 and a half, minus 142 on that, A lot of juice. 10 to 1 to win the division. I am violently under on this thing. Wow. I did explore some of the worst record, 14 to 1, under 4 and a half wins, plus 340. They have a bottom three coach-QB combo in the league. The history of the interim coach taking over from a disaster coach and doing okay. Then people are like, You should give him the job. I'm like, Yeah, give him the job. Then he's terrible. That happens Most of the time. The John Gruden draughts, they're still recovering from how bad those draughts were. They have three of the best coaches in the NFL around their division. Their quarterback situation is yikes. Basically, they have a good pass rush and they have good tight ends, and that's it. Devante Adams will be unhappy. It's weird. It seems like there's some buzz building for them as getting a little sleepy, and I couldn't see it less. I don't understand it.

I like them.

You like them? What do you like? Tell me what you like.

I like them. Antonio peers led them to 8-9. They're not afraid of anybody. They punch the Chiefs in the mouth. They could say it was lucky. I think they get seven wins. I have them as a playoff team. I do. I think their offensive line is good. I think they're going to... They could have a great tight-end system with Meyer and Brock Bowers.

Do they have a quarterback that I don't know about?

No, you don't need a quarterback.

Because I checked in their quarterbacks the last time I looked with Gardner Minchou and Aiden O'Neill.

Aiden O'Neill, he wasn't that bad. He wasn't that bad.

Aiden O'Neill wasn't that bad compared to who? You beat the Chiefs. Cfl quarterbacks?

They have 10 home games if you count the two in LA. I think they're in good shape. They got that Christian Wilkins, who you like from Miami. I do like him. Crosby, Tyree Wilson, Coons. They're going to have a good pass rush for sure. They're like a gutty team. They added that Jack Jones the Patriots. So I don't know. Jack Jones from the Patriots.

He got arrested.

Is he arrested?

Well, not anymore.

They have tough stretches, but you know. Jacksonville, New Orleans. But here's the problem in the end. But here's the problem.

You're The best quality on your team is the pass rush. But you have an offense that's not probably going to be able to score that much. And you're going to be behind in a lot of games, which negates the point of having a pass rush. I don't understand that part. I would want a pass rush if I had Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson, not having Aiden O'Caddle and Gardner Minchou. I think I was probably one of the biggest Minchou fans, but the Colts, the receivers they had, and the coach they had, Steikin, that's as good as we're ever going to do with him, and they didn't make the playoffs in a better situation.

Well, have two great pass catching tight ends, and maybe that'll help. I think that's what they have.

Michael Mair is a great pass catching tight end. I didn't get that memo.

I was going to send you a memo. I want this to be my secret. But I think I have to pick one of these teams to, can't believe it, or wherever we have the Raiders in to make the playoffs. That's it. That's my surprise.

Okay. So at chargers at Baltimore, week one, week two. I think they have to win one of those two for you to be alive for that. After that, home Carolina, home Cleveland. And then who knows?

Front seven is good. Schedule is pretty tough. Defense is good. Week six to eleven is tough, but I like the way they're built.

They I'll play the AFC North and the NFC South this year. I don't see it, Sal. All right.

Look, I'm going to be wrong about at least 80% of these.

Well, so we've disagreed about as much as I can remember for a conference. Yeah. So my surprise-We're not done yet, are we?

We have Denver.

Oh, yeah, we have Denver. Forgot about Denver. Sorry, Denver. Denver is over five and a half. Let me guess. Is the total. Minus 128, you said that. Playoffs, plus 590 if you want to go. Every year, there's a five to one and up playoff team that actually makes it.

That went down.

That was eight to one last week. Yeah, there's been some buzz with this team as like, Wait, why is that over under so low? And, Hey, there's been some good Bo Nicks stuff. Sean Payton, year two. I'm going over, and I also really like 8 plus wins at plus 310, I thought was a fun bet. But offensive line is good. Bo Nicks has checked boxes, apparently. I think they could be able to run the ball. The wide receivers are so deep, they're trying to trade Tim Patrick, which I didn't understand.

I think they caught him. I don't even know.

The case against it is they lost those Russell Wilson trade picks and they waived him and took a huge cap space hit. But I don't know. The fact that they went 8-9 last year was like, I thought one of the achievements of the 2023 season. How did they go 8-9? I would have thought they went like 3-14. Right. Well, they had that- They would have gone 9-8 if we I didn't beat them at the game Kyle and I watched, that cost us the first pick of the draft.

You shouldn't have done that.

Yeah, we love Jake May. But yeah, they were a Patriot's comeback from having above 500 record last year. So I don't know. Five and a half wins seems insulting.

I think their defense is going to be bad. I think their defense is insulting. They should be bottom five pressure D. They lost Justin Simmons, the All-Pro went to Atlanta. They were 30th ranked last year. They used most of their draft picks on offensive skill players except for Ellis. They'll give up five yards per carry. I just don't see that getting better. Yeah, you like Courtney Sutton? And these guys had nine quarterbacks. After a while, it's your fault. They've had no wins at the Raiders or Chiefs since 2015.

I didn't like that.

They end with Chargers, Bangle's, Chiefs. They're on the road, three of their first four to start. Look, I love Bo Nicks. I've seen him live, but I think this is one of my candidates for worst record. I got Denver under.

I test drove them as a playoff team, and I couldn't get there. But I just don't think Sean Payton is... There's certain coaches that I just don't see having them having shitty teams. 7, 6, whatever.

I mean, your Patriots didn't do so hot last year.

They didn't. That coach was good. Our coach was old, and now he's dead eyebrows. What do you got for your prop?

Well, the Chiefs half of the division, eight in a row. They know how to win the most important games. But Crosby, 15 or more sacks plus 250. He's right there. He had 12 and a half last year, 14 and a half last year, 12 and a half and 22. He's got some help with Wilkins opening up the middle. Malcolm Koud's on the other side at eight sacks, so he's to be considered not as many double, triple teams. That's my prop.

I like that. My prop is a complete zag against you and everyone else who leaves in Vegas. I like the under five and a half wins, which is now plus $1.98.For.

The Raiders?Yeah.

Five and twelve are worse. Two to 1 odds. All right. You know what I like betting against? Bad quarterbacks.

It was five and five, Aiden O'Neill. There's worse.

Come on.

You can't.

I picked him up on my fantasy team. Aiden O'Neill is not a starting quarterback. He's not.

That's your fault. I'd rather have Zack Wiffin. We have to have two quarterbacks in that dumb league. I know.

That was a dumb roll. All right. Any final thoughts before we move to the NFC? No, I just... So you have Buffalo win in the conference.

Yeah, close to 10 to 1.

I think that's a good number. To recap, you like Buffalo to win the conference and Vegas is a playoff team.

Vegas makes a play-off.

Those are your two wildest ones. That's it. And mine are Pittsburgh being the second AFC team. Allen, and Burro not to be in the playoffs.

Oh, no Buffalo in the playoffs, you're saying?

I don't think I have Buffalo in the playoff. Oh, wow. Hold on. Let me check to make sure that's true.

Yeah, I have- Just one team from the AFC.

I have Casey, Houston, the Jets, Baltimore, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, and the Chargers as my seven playoff teams. But I might be wrong. It's Jets or Bills in a coin flip.

I think we agreed on probably four of the 16 or five of the 16. That's the least we've agreed on. But those are going to win. That'll have a good winning percentage.

Somebody's going to be unhappy. All right, we're going to take this to a part two later in the week, Cousin Sal. Great to see you, as always. Thanks to Kyle Creighton and Steve Cerruti. Everyone else will help produce this little show, and we'll see if it-Let's do it again in 30 seconds.

Okay.

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