Thank you for listening to The Rest is History. For weekly bonus episodes, add free listening, early access to series, and membership of our much loved chat community, go to therestishistory. Com and join the club. That is therestishistory. Com. Tom, we've got brilliant news for the listeners, haven't we? Because although we are going on tour to the United States in the autumn, we're a patriotic podcast, so we didn't want to leave people in our own beloved country. Feeling neglected. So we'll be going to two very different and diverse places in our United Kingdom, won't we? To meet the public. We will.

So we wanted to get a real spread. So Dominic, we fixed on Cambridge and Oxford, two very random places. So we'll be at Cambridge, the Corn Exchange on the 17th of September, and then we'll be at Oxford, and we'll be at the new theater, and that will be on the 19th of September.

We're massively looking forward to it, Tom. And what we'll be doing, we'll be talking about our new a book, which has got the exciting title of The Rest is History Returns. And if you want to get your tickets, go right now to therestishistory. Com.

I sincerely regret that you should have been obliged to give up your intention of going to Vienna for the funeral of ceremonies. I should have liked personally to express to you my sincereest thanks for your sympathy in my keen sorrow, a sympathy which has greatly touched me. By your warm and sympathetic condolence, you have given me renewed proof that I have in you a true and reliable friend, and that even in the darkest hours of trial, I can always count on you. The attack directed against my poor nephew is the direct consequence of the agitation carried on by the Russian and Serbian Pan-Slavists, whose only aim is the weakening of the triple alliance and the destruction of my empire. At the heart of the Sarajevo affair was not just the single bloody deed of an individual, but a well-organized conspiracy, the threads of which reach to Belgrade, which constitutes a constant danger to my family and to my realm. After the latest terrible events in Bosnia, you must jolly agree that we cannot live any longer with this Serbian antagonism and that as long as this furnace of criminal agitation at Belgrade goes unpunished, all European monies are in danger.

That, Dominic, was Emperor Franz Joseph, the 436-year-old Austro-Hungarian Emperor, writing to the Kaiser, Wilhelm II. And he wrote that letter on the second of July, 1914. But it's delivered to the Kaiser three days later, is it not, by the special envoy of the Austro-Hungarian government, Herr Huyos.

Yes, Tom. Guten tag, everybody, or should I say Grüß Gott, since we are in Österreich. That was a very nice Franz Joseph. Thank you. Yeah, I enjoyed that a lot.

Did you like the modulated range of emotion?

I did.

He starts off calm, and then he gets more and more irate as he gets furious with the thought of these Serbian conspirators.

Yeah, the furnace of conspiracy, or whatever he calls it, the furnace of criminal agitation. Very stirring stuff. So last time, we were really focused on Austria, how there were lots of people in Austria, especially the chief of their general staff, General Franz Conrad von Hutzendorff, and the Foreign Minister, Count Bechtold, who have long been thinking about what to do about Serbia and been thinking about a preemptive strike. And now, of course, they have their chance. But I think, as we said last time, important to say that the assassination of Franz Ferdinand and Sophie is not just a pretext. It is something they take very seriously in and of itself. So Franz Joseph, where he says there, the threat to my realm and my family, he really believes that.

Of course.

Yeah. I mean, his wife has been murdered by an anarchist. His son took his own life in a weird suicide pact. His nephew has now been shot by a Bosnian terrorist.

His brother was killed by Mexican revolutionaries. Yes. Danger everywhere.

Yeah. That sense of being embattled and encircled. I mean, a lot of the participants in this story feel this, but I think it's important to say the Austrians absolutely do feel it. And you get a sense of that, I think, in that wonderful reading that you did, Tom. So we also talked last time about the Kaiser, didn't we? About the person who's going to be reading this letter. But let's concentrate for a did call him Hair. Yeah, sorry. Well, I mean, if the Hoyos family are listening, they can take it up with you.Well, I apologize unreservedly.Oh, that's your term. You don't want to know the Dr. Valverde imbrolio, do you? I suppose. No, I don't. So, Count Hoyos arrives in Berlin, and it's absolutely déserted. And the reason is, it's the summer. Everybody's on holiday. So the Chancellor of Germany, Theobald Bethmann-Hollweg, is away on his country estate. The head of the army, the chief of the general staff, Helmut von Molkert, the younger, he has a problem with his liver, and he is off taking the waters in Carlsbad, which is now in the Czech Republic.Of course he is. Because as we have already discovered, key events in 20th century German history all involve spa towns. Yeah.And the Kaiser himself is actually getting ready for his holiday. He will be going probably tomorrow or the next day on his trip to the Norwegian fjords. So he always loves a Baltic Cruise. The Kaiser, he loves yachting. Of course, Tom, as we have established.Yeah, a bit of a smorgasbord.Yeah, he loves all that. He likes the bracing Baltic waters. I've been to that neck of the woods and was attacked by a jellyfish.So have I. We'll come to my interaction with the events of the Kaiser's adopting holiday in due course. That's something for people to look forward to.That is exciting. First of all, Count Hoyaus goes to see an old friend of his called Arthur Zimmerman. If we have American listeners, that name may ring one or two bells because Arthur Zimmerman later will write a very consequential central telegram that brings the United States into the war. But at the time, he's the coming man in the foreign office there. They're all China hands. So they had been in China during the boxer rebellion, 1900. So they have a little chat about China and all that thing, Hoyos and Zimmermann. And Hoyos is very frank to Zimmermann. And he says, look, I've got these letters. I'm looking forward to handing them over, getting the Kaiser to see them. Personally, he says, I would like to see us hit Serbia really hard and actually just wipe it out. Let's partition Serbia Serbia, among ourselves, the Austrians, the Bulgarians, and the Albanians. He says, actually, Serbia must be destroyed. It's very Karthago Delenda-est. He just says, we have to be a really hard line about this. But actually, Hoyos is not going to get to see the Kaiser himself. The man who's going to see the Kaiser is the Austrian ambassador.Now, Tom, I was very harsh on you last time by making you read the name. Okay. I was going to say, I won't make you do it this time.Do you want me to do it? Have a crack?You can have a crack.Hungarian is famously with Finnish and Basque, the most difficult language in for Indoeuropian speakers to master. And this gives a demonstration why. So the Austrian ambassador is Count Lazlo Sujiny Marich de Magia Sujyen et Solgegiersa. I mean, it's like a jumbal of Scrabble pieces.I mean, I'm not much better, to be honest. I did try to look this up. He's actually called Count Lazlo Sujiny Marich de Magia Sujyen Solgegiersa.Apologies to Hungarian listeners.Yeah. Anyway, his Count Sujiny. I think his Count Sujiny is how we call him. So Count Sujiny is the Austro-Hungarian ambassador. He's obviously, as you can tell from that, a Magya. He is the head boy of the Berlin Diplomatic Corps because obviously, the Austrians are very close to the Germans. Everyone slightly differs to him among the other ambassadors. He is very popular. The Kaiser loves him. The Kaiser is always playing jokes and japes on him. And the Kaiser calls him, You are my gipsy, my little gypsey, and all this stuff because of his Hungarian-ness. So he's given these two documents, and he goes to the Kaiser's Palace in Potsdam to hand them over. Now, it is a sign, as Thomas Ottey points out in his book, July Crisis, of just how unseriously the Germans have prepared for this, that nobody has briefed the Kaiser before the ambassador comes. If this was the United States right now, he would have a little piece of paper. He'd be Joe Biden, and he'd have a piece of paper with bullet points telling him what they want, what we want, where we want to get to. The Kaiser has nothing like this.But also, just to ask you, if Germany was the Germany of, I guess, popular perception, that it's full of shaven-headed Prussians plotting the invasion of Belgium, and they're just looking for an opportunity, that's clearly not the case here. They haven't thought, oh, brilliant, this is a chance for us to invade France.Oh, no, I would say not at all. Now, maybe some people listening to this will say, oh, gosh, Sandbrooke and Holland are going very easy on the Germans here. This is a very poor form. But no historian who's really studied this in detail would make that claim, because Wilhelm Tom has spent that morning in that Sarajevo series. We had those lovely scenes of him and Franz Ferdinand bonding over their rhododendrons.Remember that? Yeah.So the Kaiser has actually been doing that this morning. He's gone and he's been admiring the rosebushes in his Potsdam garden. And then he went to a little... They'd put on a special exhibition for him of works by a historical painter called Professor Scherbel. And the Kaiser has been looking at all these paintings of scenes from German history. Lovely, lovely paintings, nice roses. And then he goes in for this meeting with the Austrian ambassador. And it's not like there's the whole apparatus of the German war machine behind him. There's nobody there. There's just the two of them. So Jenny hands over these two documents. Now, one of them is basically just a quite boring strategic overview of Austria's position in the Balkans. And the second one is the one you read out at the beginning. So that was the letter from Franz Josef.And that's the personal appeal.It's the personal appeal. It's been very carefully drafted by the Austrian Foreign Ministry. And it's an appeal to the Kaiser on the principle of our great friendship, your friendship with Franz Ferdinand, and the principle of monarchical solidarity. No European monarchy is safe with these crazy terrorists running around. And Wilhelm looks at all this, and actually, at first, he's pretty calm. He doesn't start shouting, let's invade Argentina, or something in his traditional way. I shall get out the Crown of Burgundy and give it to the Belgians. None of this nonsense. He actually says, listen, I completely understand where you're coming from. You've suffered a terrible provocation. And he says, that said, I understand why you want a serious action against Serbia, but there is a risk of a serious European complication to this.Because Serbia is aligned with Russia.With Russia. So we'll have a think about it. I need to talk to my Chancellor, Bethmann Holweg. So again, the idea that the Kaiser is an absolute monarch, or he's a bully, and everybody lives in his shadow, it's not quite right. The Kaiser knows he has to talk to the civilian leaders.But they then go and have lunch, don't they? And then after lunch, he starts to Kaiser a bit.Yeah, he does exactly. So they have this lunch God knows what they have at the lunch that gets him into this. Something very hot. I think he's just been thinking about it. His friend has been killed, all of this stuff. And he worked himself up. So when they reconvene after lunch, he says to the ambassador, Sir Jenny, he says, Actually, do you know what? I completely understand why you want to have a crack at the Serbs. And I've been thinking about it, and you have my absolute full support. I will talk to the Chancellor, Bethman Hulveg, but he's bound to agree with me. And you know what as well? You shouldn't hang about. You should strike quickly.Well, that's an important point, isn't it? He's not wrong with that.It's a really important point. He's not wrong at all. He says, Listen, the Russians will make a huge hula-baloo about this. There's no question about that. However, I'm pretty confident the Russians won't do anything stupid. We will stand by you, so that will deter them. The Russians don't want war. They're not prepared for war. It'll probably be fine. And again, he repeats at the end, The current moment is the most advantageous one. It would be a massive mistake not to exploit it. This is the best chance you'll ever have.So never let a crisis go to Never let a crisis go to waste.You don't want this shock of the crisis to completely dissipate. And I think every historian would say, the Kaiser is not wrong there. No. This is the obvious moment.We talked about that in the previous episode. Yeah, exactly. The longer you leave it, the less the sense of international outrage fades.Right, exactly. So the question, therefore, is, what is the Kaiser thinking? What's going on in the Kaiser's head? Is this because he dreams of world conquest and like, fighting all his enemies and a world war in which Germany be victorious? I think there is no evidence of that. He is specifically saying to the Austrian guy, there won't be a world war, so this is your chance to crack on and do it.But also, he has flagged up the fact that the risk is of provoking Russia, and this is a bad thing.Yeah, exactly. That it's a bad thing, and preferably a thing you'd want to avoid by deterrence. Is he being motivated here by his famous hostility and loathing of the British? Absolutely not the British he never mentioned at all. Really, I think what this is, his textbook, Kaiser, he's had his lunch. Whenever he has lunch with visiting dignitaries, he loses it and just starts ranting. This is what he has done. And as Thomas Ottey says, there is a personal dimension. I mean, it's so easily overlooked. This is his friend who was killed, and he takes it very seriously. He thinks, they should be punished. Why would you not punish them? So the meeting breaks up, and then the Kaiser goes to the garden, and there, some of his big wigs are waiting, including the Prussian war Minister, who is called Erik von Falkenheim. And he says to them, Guys, The Austrians look like they're going to gear up for a war against Serbia. And they all say, Yeah, I can understand that. That's fair enough. Actually, the Kaiser's adjetant, who's a guy called Hans von Pleist, he writes a diary, which is a brilliant source for us, gives us a real sense of what they're thinking.Here, the view prevails that the sooner the Austrian strike against Serbia, the better, and the Russians, although friends of Serbia, would not join in after all.So again, the emphasis on speed.Speed, exactly. Now, the key person, really, the Kaiser needs to persuade, if he's keen on this, is the Chancellor. The Chancellor has just got back from his country estate. He is Teabald Bethmann-Hollweg. Now, because he's the leader of Germany and because he's got a beard, he's very easy to caricature as this Mephistopheles figure. And he's absolutely not that at all.He's like all those British ministers whose idea of fun is to go off and read Plato in Greek.That's genuinely what he's been doing. He genuinely has been reading Plato in Greek. Because his wife has just died after a long illness, Bethman Hulvegg's wife. He's very melancholy, and he's been reading Plato. In Britain, people regarded him as quite an admirable person. He's a moderate conservative. He's not a super reactionary. He's from a Frankfurt law and banking family. Richard Houldane, who'd been Britain's Secretary of State for War in the Edwardian period, said he was the Abraham Lincoln of Germany. An admirable man, measured, sensible, cultured, all of this thing. And Bethmann Hohlweg, when he listens to Kaiser explains what's going on, he says, Yeah, I mean, fair enough. We'll stand by the Austrians. They had to work to deter the Russians. Let them have their crack at Serbia. So they're all agreed. The next morning, Monday the sixth, the Kaiser goes off on holiday. And there are some historians who say this is a sign of just how sinister and Machiavelian the Germans are, that they all go on holiday to fool everybody into thinking there's not going to be a world war. I think the Germans don't think there's going to be a world war, and so they go on holiday.And doesn't the Kaiser say, as a reason for thinking this, that the Tsar won't side with the regicides? Yeah, he does. So ultimately, the Russians will kick up a fuss. But because of that detail, because he can't imagine Nicki backing regicides, it will be all right.Absolutely, he thinks that, Tom. I don't think you can make sense of what happens in all this without thinking that the Germans and the Austrians, like the Russians, later on, genuinely think they're in the right. They think that virtue and decency and reason are on their side, and that the reasonable person will look at their case and say, fair enough. Regicides have to be punished. Terrorism cannot be allowed to flourish unchecked, all of this thing.Well, we're familiar with that argument, aren't we?Of course we are. So this is effectively the blank check.Right. So this is the famous blank check. Yeah.Because the Chancellor, Bethman, goes to see the ambassador, or they have a meeting, and he says, Just to confirm everything the Kaiser has said to you, we will stand behind you. Go for it, whatever happens. And it's your call. It's not our call because it's not our business. It is your call. And whatever you decide, we are your friend, and we are with you.But Dominic, just to be clear, the Germans basically don't think that they are giving a blank check because they think that this will be a local war. They don't think that they're saying, yeah, we're with you and let's have a world war and brilliant.No, we'll come to this because this is a slightly more complicated issue.Right. I ask that because probably people listening to this will be aware of something called the Schlefen plan. They'll be aware of talk that Germany has been preparing for a war of conquest against France and against Russia, and has been imbriled in a naval race against Britain. Yes. Should we take a break at this point? When we come back, let's look at each of those scenarios and find how accurate they are.Tom, I would love nothing more than to take a break now, and we can talk about this when we come back.Hello. Welcome back to The Rest is History. Germany has just issued Austria, the notorious blank check. And Dominic often, and I have to say that this is how I had always understood it, that this is essentially the expression of a German establishment that is keen for war. But having reread Christopher Clarke's great book, The Sleepwalkers, in preparation for this, and having read all your notes, I'm now doubtful.Tom, I hate to be the person who sows doubt in your mind.So can we tease this myth? First of all, Britain. Because certainly here, the idea that the Kaiser is gagging for war because of various insults that he's received and so on. How accurate is that?There has been Anglo-German antagonism. And when we get on to Britain in this story in a couple of episodes time, we will talk about this in greater detail. But by and large, the general sense in 1914 is that relations haven't been brilliant, but they are now definitely on an upwards curve. We're getting on long, much better.You mentioned Haldane, this guy Haldane, the war minister, who had a mission in 1912, hadn't he? Yes. That had been aborted. Yes.There had been efforts going back to the days of Joseph in British politics by people who said, We have a lot in common with are utterly humiliated and forced back into Austria.Although in the long run, Serbia loses more than anybody.Yeah, but that's down to the fact that the Germans have to bail out the Austrians as much as anything. Anyway, Chris Clarke has this wonderful lineup. It says, The Austrians resembled hedgehogs scurrying across a highway with their eyes averted from the onrushing traffic. Because often when they're having these discussions, it's Have they forgotten that Russia exists? Because they're not even mentioning it at all. How would you explain that? One possibility is that they're so dazzled by Germany's military prowess that they think the Russians would never dare. You can see in the Cold War, client states of the United States or the Soviet Union might think that about their own patron. Cuba might think that about the USSR in the 1960s. No one would dare mess with us.Not incorrectly.Yeah, because we've got a very powerful friend. I think an important thing with the Austrians, I think a lot of them genuinely think they have nothing to lose. That fatalism that we talked about the Germans is in their soul as well. They think their empires in danger of breaking up. They just think, if we don't do this now, what's the point? We might as well just leave the game.But also Chris Clarke makes this point, and I think it's, again, as I said before, I don't think it's one that a lot of historians appreciate enough. The Austrians are so convinced that they are right, they just think this point that you made, the Tsar, why would he support regicide terrorists? Sure, the Russians have different interests from us, but they will surely recognize the heir to our throne and his wife have been shot in cold blood. Of course, the Russians will eventually say, Yeah, fair enough. And if they do turn out to be terrorist-loving monsters, then the Germans will just deal with them. Actually, we don't need to give them any thoughts at all. And in fact, I mean, unbelievably, they basically leave their Eastern border undefended against the Russians because they're just like, Well, yeah, let's not even think about that. Let's just concentrate on Serbia. What's the worst that could go wrong? We could lose our entire empire, the dynasty breaks up, and it's all been for nothing. But they don't really envisage that. So on the 21st of July, Berchtold and Count Hoyos, they go to Bad Ischal, which is the nice lakeside resort.Is there a spa? Almost certainly there'll be a spa, Tom. It's probably one of those places where there's a big casino and a promenade. People are strolling with parasols.Concert halls.Yeah, absolutely.The faint strains of violins drifting across the lake.A Johann Strauss waltz. Yeah. That's exactly what it is. You told me when we first were going to do this series, Tom, I don't want to give the game away on the inside machinations of the rest of its history, but you wanted to make it 28 episodes, was it?I did. Yes, I did. So this is my Kaiser-esque plan. We'd focus on the politics, but we didn't leave it with episodes called A Riding School in Vienna or A Cricket Match at Hove. Little vignettes of the life that is about to be lost. I still think that would have been fun.Well, you've got it now, right? No. People are waltzing on the shores of bad issue.Could have had a little episode on this. But Dominic, like the German military staff that he is, overruled me, the headstrong Kaiser.There was no blank check It's fair, Tom. It's fair to say. Anyway, as the last strains of Anton Bruckner are dying away in the distance, they hand over the ultimatum to the Emperor. We will describe the ultimatum in a subsequent episode. Franz Joseph says, when he sees it, he says, Is that Is it quite harsh. It's really harsh. And he says to them right then and there, There's no way the Russians will tolerate this. This is very, very harsh. But then, in that Austrian way, he says, Yeah, but let's figure out the Russians. It's crack on. Whatever. Let's do it anyway. Berktold said in his diary, The Emperor was fully alive to the profound seriousness, even the tragedy of the current historical moment. But what an ironic line that is, because, of course, they have no idea, Tom, of just how serious and just how tragic that moment would turn out to be.Right. Well, another brilliant episode, Dominic. Thank you. We will find out what happens next on the road to war in our third episode when we'll be looking at views from Russia and from France.So not as planned, a boating party in Berlin, which was your original plan for episode.No, we could have been having that. We could have been having maybe a governance in Monmouth.Strong words in the nursery.But instead, we're going to have French diplomats, and we will be introducing some excellent French ambassadors. If you like comic French ambassadors, this series is definitely the one for you. So they will be featuring in our next episode. And if you're a member of the Restless History Club, you can, of course, get that and everything else that follows the whole series right now. If you're not, you can sign up and get it at therestlish history. Com. Till next time. Goodbye.Auf Wiedersehen..

did call him Hair. Yeah, sorry. Well, I mean, if the Hoyos family are listening, they can take it up with you.

Well, I apologize unreservedly.

Oh, that's your term. You don't want to know the Dr. Valverde imbrolio, do you? I suppose. No, I don't. So, Count Hoyos arrives in Berlin, and it's absolutely déserted. And the reason is, it's the summer. Everybody's on holiday. So the Chancellor of Germany, Theobald Bethmann-Hollweg, is away on his country estate. The head of the army, the chief of the general staff, Helmut von Molkert, the younger, he has a problem with his liver, and he is off taking the waters in Carlsbad, which is now in the Czech Republic.

Of course he is. Because as we have already discovered, key events in 20th century German history all involve spa towns. Yeah.

And the Kaiser himself is actually getting ready for his holiday. He will be going probably tomorrow or the next day on his trip to the Norwegian fjords. So he always loves a Baltic Cruise. The Kaiser, he loves yachting. Of course, Tom, as we have established.

Yeah, a bit of a smorgasbord.

Yeah, he loves all that. He likes the bracing Baltic waters. I've been to that neck of the woods and was attacked by a jellyfish.

So have I. We'll come to my interaction with the events of the Kaiser's adopting holiday in due course. That's something for people to look forward to.

That is exciting. First of all, Count Hoyaus goes to see an old friend of his called Arthur Zimmerman. If we have American listeners, that name may ring one or two bells because Arthur Zimmerman later will write a very consequential central telegram that brings the United States into the war. But at the time, he's the coming man in the foreign office there. They're all China hands. So they had been in China during the boxer rebellion, 1900. So they have a little chat about China and all that thing, Hoyos and Zimmermann. And Hoyos is very frank to Zimmermann. And he says, look, I've got these letters. I'm looking forward to handing them over, getting the Kaiser to see them. Personally, he says, I would like to see us hit Serbia really hard and actually just wipe it out. Let's partition Serbia Serbia, among ourselves, the Austrians, the Bulgarians, and the Albanians. He says, actually, Serbia must be destroyed. It's very Karthago Delenda-est. He just says, we have to be a really hard line about this. But actually, Hoyos is not going to get to see the Kaiser himself. The man who's going to see the Kaiser is the Austrian ambassador.

Now, Tom, I was very harsh on you last time by making you read the name. Okay. I was going to say, I won't make you do it this time.

Do you want me to do it? Have a crack?

You can have a crack.

Hungarian is famously with Finnish and Basque, the most difficult language in for Indoeuropian speakers to master. And this gives a demonstration why. So the Austrian ambassador is Count Lazlo Sujiny Marich de Magia Sujyen et Solgegiersa. I mean, it's like a jumbal of Scrabble pieces.

I mean, I'm not much better, to be honest. I did try to look this up. He's actually called Count Lazlo Sujiny Marich de Magia Sujyen Solgegiersa.

Apologies to Hungarian listeners.

Yeah. Anyway, his Count Sujiny. I think his Count Sujiny is how we call him. So Count Sujiny is the Austro-Hungarian ambassador. He's obviously, as you can tell from that, a Magya. He is the head boy of the Berlin Diplomatic Corps because obviously, the Austrians are very close to the Germans. Everyone slightly differs to him among the other ambassadors. He is very popular. The Kaiser loves him. The Kaiser is always playing jokes and japes on him. And the Kaiser calls him, You are my gipsy, my little gypsey, and all this stuff because of his Hungarian-ness. So he's given these two documents, and he goes to the Kaiser's Palace in Potsdam to hand them over. Now, it is a sign, as Thomas Ottey points out in his book, July Crisis, of just how unseriously the Germans have prepared for this, that nobody has briefed the Kaiser before the ambassador comes. If this was the United States right now, he would have a little piece of paper. He'd be Joe Biden, and he'd have a piece of paper with bullet points telling him what they want, what we want, where we want to get to. The Kaiser has nothing like this.

But also, just to ask you, if Germany was the Germany of, I guess, popular perception, that it's full of shaven-headed Prussians plotting the invasion of Belgium, and they're just looking for an opportunity, that's clearly not the case here. They haven't thought, oh, brilliant, this is a chance for us to invade France.

Oh, no, I would say not at all. Now, maybe some people listening to this will say, oh, gosh, Sandbrooke and Holland are going very easy on the Germans here. This is a very poor form. But no historian who's really studied this in detail would make that claim, because Wilhelm Tom has spent that morning in that Sarajevo series. We had those lovely scenes of him and Franz Ferdinand bonding over their rhododendrons.

Remember that? Yeah.

So the Kaiser has actually been doing that this morning. He's gone and he's been admiring the rosebushes in his Potsdam garden. And then he went to a little... They'd put on a special exhibition for him of works by a historical painter called Professor Scherbel. And the Kaiser has been looking at all these paintings of scenes from German history. Lovely, lovely paintings, nice roses. And then he goes in for this meeting with the Austrian ambassador. And it's not like there's the whole apparatus of the German war machine behind him. There's nobody there. There's just the two of them. So Jenny hands over these two documents. Now, one of them is basically just a quite boring strategic overview of Austria's position in the Balkans. And the second one is the one you read out at the beginning. So that was the letter from Franz Josef.

And that's the personal appeal.

It's the personal appeal. It's been very carefully drafted by the Austrian Foreign Ministry. And it's an appeal to the Kaiser on the principle of our great friendship, your friendship with Franz Ferdinand, and the principle of monarchical solidarity. No European monarchy is safe with these crazy terrorists running around. And Wilhelm looks at all this, and actually, at first, he's pretty calm. He doesn't start shouting, let's invade Argentina, or something in his traditional way. I shall get out the Crown of Burgundy and give it to the Belgians. None of this nonsense. He actually says, listen, I completely understand where you're coming from. You've suffered a terrible provocation. And he says, that said, I understand why you want a serious action against Serbia, but there is a risk of a serious European complication to this.

Because Serbia is aligned with Russia.

With Russia. So we'll have a think about it. I need to talk to my Chancellor, Bethmann Holweg. So again, the idea that the Kaiser is an absolute monarch, or he's a bully, and everybody lives in his shadow, it's not quite right. The Kaiser knows he has to talk to the civilian leaders.

But they then go and have lunch, don't they? And then after lunch, he starts to Kaiser a bit.

Yeah, he does exactly. So they have this lunch God knows what they have at the lunch that gets him into this. Something very hot. I think he's just been thinking about it. His friend has been killed, all of this stuff. And he worked himself up. So when they reconvene after lunch, he says to the ambassador, Sir Jenny, he says, Actually, do you know what? I completely understand why you want to have a crack at the Serbs. And I've been thinking about it, and you have my absolute full support. I will talk to the Chancellor, Bethman Hulveg, but he's bound to agree with me. And you know what as well? You shouldn't hang about. You should strike quickly.

Well, that's an important point, isn't it? He's not wrong with that.

It's a really important point. He's not wrong at all. He says, Listen, the Russians will make a huge hula-baloo about this. There's no question about that. However, I'm pretty confident the Russians won't do anything stupid. We will stand by you, so that will deter them. The Russians don't want war. They're not prepared for war. It'll probably be fine. And again, he repeats at the end, The current moment is the most advantageous one. It would be a massive mistake not to exploit it. This is the best chance you'll ever have.

So never let a crisis go to Never let a crisis go to waste.

You don't want this shock of the crisis to completely dissipate. And I think every historian would say, the Kaiser is not wrong there. No. This is the obvious moment.

We talked about that in the previous episode. Yeah, exactly. The longer you leave it, the less the sense of international outrage fades.

Right, exactly. So the question, therefore, is, what is the Kaiser thinking? What's going on in the Kaiser's head? Is this because he dreams of world conquest and like, fighting all his enemies and a world war in which Germany be victorious? I think there is no evidence of that. He is specifically saying to the Austrian guy, there won't be a world war, so this is your chance to crack on and do it.

But also, he has flagged up the fact that the risk is of provoking Russia, and this is a bad thing.

Yeah, exactly. That it's a bad thing, and preferably a thing you'd want to avoid by deterrence. Is he being motivated here by his famous hostility and loathing of the British? Absolutely not the British he never mentioned at all. Really, I think what this is, his textbook, Kaiser, he's had his lunch. Whenever he has lunch with visiting dignitaries, he loses it and just starts ranting. This is what he has done. And as Thomas Ottey says, there is a personal dimension. I mean, it's so easily overlooked. This is his friend who was killed, and he takes it very seriously. He thinks, they should be punished. Why would you not punish them? So the meeting breaks up, and then the Kaiser goes to the garden, and there, some of his big wigs are waiting, including the Prussian war Minister, who is called Erik von Falkenheim. And he says to them, Guys, The Austrians look like they're going to gear up for a war against Serbia. And they all say, Yeah, I can understand that. That's fair enough. Actually, the Kaiser's adjetant, who's a guy called Hans von Pleist, he writes a diary, which is a brilliant source for us, gives us a real sense of what they're thinking.

Here, the view prevails that the sooner the Austrian strike against Serbia, the better, and the Russians, although friends of Serbia, would not join in after all.

So again, the emphasis on speed.

Speed, exactly. Now, the key person, really, the Kaiser needs to persuade, if he's keen on this, is the Chancellor. The Chancellor has just got back from his country estate. He is Teabald Bethmann-Hollweg. Now, because he's the leader of Germany and because he's got a beard, he's very easy to caricature as this Mephistopheles figure. And he's absolutely not that at all.

He's like all those British ministers whose idea of fun is to go off and read Plato in Greek.

That's genuinely what he's been doing. He genuinely has been reading Plato in Greek. Because his wife has just died after a long illness, Bethman Hulvegg's wife. He's very melancholy, and he's been reading Plato. In Britain, people regarded him as quite an admirable person. He's a moderate conservative. He's not a super reactionary. He's from a Frankfurt law and banking family. Richard Houldane, who'd been Britain's Secretary of State for War in the Edwardian period, said he was the Abraham Lincoln of Germany. An admirable man, measured, sensible, cultured, all of this thing. And Bethmann Hohlweg, when he listens to Kaiser explains what's going on, he says, Yeah, I mean, fair enough. We'll stand by the Austrians. They had to work to deter the Russians. Let them have their crack at Serbia. So they're all agreed. The next morning, Monday the sixth, the Kaiser goes off on holiday. And there are some historians who say this is a sign of just how sinister and Machiavelian the Germans are, that they all go on holiday to fool everybody into thinking there's not going to be a world war. I think the Germans don't think there's going to be a world war, and so they go on holiday.

And doesn't the Kaiser say, as a reason for thinking this, that the Tsar won't side with the regicides? Yeah, he does. So ultimately, the Russians will kick up a fuss. But because of that detail, because he can't imagine Nicki backing regicides, it will be all right.

Absolutely, he thinks that, Tom. I don't think you can make sense of what happens in all this without thinking that the Germans and the Austrians, like the Russians, later on, genuinely think they're in the right. They think that virtue and decency and reason are on their side, and that the reasonable person will look at their case and say, fair enough. Regicides have to be punished. Terrorism cannot be allowed to flourish unchecked, all of this thing.

Well, we're familiar with that argument, aren't we?

Of course we are. So this is effectively the blank check.

Right. So this is the famous blank check. Yeah.

Because the Chancellor, Bethman, goes to see the ambassador, or they have a meeting, and he says, Just to confirm everything the Kaiser has said to you, we will stand behind you. Go for it, whatever happens. And it's your call. It's not our call because it's not our business. It is your call. And whatever you decide, we are your friend, and we are with you.

But Dominic, just to be clear, the Germans basically don't think that they are giving a blank check because they think that this will be a local war. They don't think that they're saying, yeah, we're with you and let's have a world war and brilliant.

No, we'll come to this because this is a slightly more complicated issue.

Right. I ask that because probably people listening to this will be aware of something called the Schlefen plan. They'll be aware of talk that Germany has been preparing for a war of conquest against France and against Russia, and has been imbriled in a naval race against Britain. Yes. Should we take a break at this point? When we come back, let's look at each of those scenarios and find how accurate they are.

Tom, I would love nothing more than to take a break now, and we can talk about this when we come back.

Hello. Welcome back to The Rest is History. Germany has just issued Austria, the notorious blank check. And Dominic often, and I have to say that this is how I had always understood it, that this is essentially the expression of a German establishment that is keen for war. But having reread Christopher Clarke's great book, The Sleepwalkers, in preparation for this, and having read all your notes, I'm now doubtful.

Tom, I hate to be the person who sows doubt in your mind.

So can we tease this myth? First of all, Britain. Because certainly here, the idea that the Kaiser is gagging for war because of various insults that he's received and so on. How accurate is that?

There has been Anglo-German antagonism. And when we get on to Britain in this story in a couple of episodes time, we will talk about this in greater detail. But by and large, the general sense in 1914 is that relations haven't been brilliant, but they are now definitely on an upwards curve. We're getting on long, much better.

You mentioned Haldane, this guy Haldane, the war minister, who had a mission in 1912, hadn't he? Yes. That had been aborted. Yes.

There had been efforts going back to the days of Joseph in British politics by people who said, We have a lot in common with are utterly humiliated and forced back into Austria.Although in the long run, Serbia loses more than anybody.Yeah, but that's down to the fact that the Germans have to bail out the Austrians as much as anything. Anyway, Chris Clarke has this wonderful lineup. It says, The Austrians resembled hedgehogs scurrying across a highway with their eyes averted from the onrushing traffic. Because often when they're having these discussions, it's Have they forgotten that Russia exists? Because they're not even mentioning it at all. How would you explain that? One possibility is that they're so dazzled by Germany's military prowess that they think the Russians would never dare. You can see in the Cold War, client states of the United States or the Soviet Union might think that about their own patron. Cuba might think that about the USSR in the 1960s. No one would dare mess with us.Not incorrectly.Yeah, because we've got a very powerful friend. I think an important thing with the Austrians, I think a lot of them genuinely think they have nothing to lose. That fatalism that we talked about the Germans is in their soul as well. They think their empires in danger of breaking up. They just think, if we don't do this now, what's the point? We might as well just leave the game.But also Chris Clarke makes this point, and I think it's, again, as I said before, I don't think it's one that a lot of historians appreciate enough. The Austrians are so convinced that they are right, they just think this point that you made, the Tsar, why would he support regicide terrorists? Sure, the Russians have different interests from us, but they will surely recognize the heir to our throne and his wife have been shot in cold blood. Of course, the Russians will eventually say, Yeah, fair enough. And if they do turn out to be terrorist-loving monsters, then the Germans will just deal with them. Actually, we don't need to give them any thoughts at all. And in fact, I mean, unbelievably, they basically leave their Eastern border undefended against the Russians because they're just like, Well, yeah, let's not even think about that. Let's just concentrate on Serbia. What's the worst that could go wrong? We could lose our entire empire, the dynasty breaks up, and it's all been for nothing. But they don't really envisage that. So on the 21st of July, Berchtold and Count Hoyos, they go to Bad Ischal, which is the nice lakeside resort.Is there a spa? Almost certainly there'll be a spa, Tom. It's probably one of those places where there's a big casino and a promenade. People are strolling with parasols.Concert halls.Yeah, absolutely.The faint strains of violins drifting across the lake.A Johann Strauss waltz. Yeah. That's exactly what it is. You told me when we first were going to do this series, Tom, I don't want to give the game away on the inside machinations of the rest of its history, but you wanted to make it 28 episodes, was it?I did. Yes, I did. So this is my Kaiser-esque plan. We'd focus on the politics, but we didn't leave it with episodes called A Riding School in Vienna or A Cricket Match at Hove. Little vignettes of the life that is about to be lost. I still think that would have been fun.Well, you've got it now, right? No. People are waltzing on the shores of bad issue.Could have had a little episode on this. But Dominic, like the German military staff that he is, overruled me, the headstrong Kaiser.There was no blank check It's fair, Tom. It's fair to say. Anyway, as the last strains of Anton Bruckner are dying away in the distance, they hand over the ultimatum to the Emperor. We will describe the ultimatum in a subsequent episode. Franz Joseph says, when he sees it, he says, Is that Is it quite harsh. It's really harsh. And he says to them right then and there, There's no way the Russians will tolerate this. This is very, very harsh. But then, in that Austrian way, he says, Yeah, but let's figure out the Russians. It's crack on. Whatever. Let's do it anyway. Berktold said in his diary, The Emperor was fully alive to the profound seriousness, even the tragedy of the current historical moment. But what an ironic line that is, because, of course, they have no idea, Tom, of just how serious and just how tragic that moment would turn out to be.Right. Well, another brilliant episode, Dominic. Thank you. We will find out what happens next on the road to war in our third episode when we'll be looking at views from Russia and from France.So not as planned, a boating party in Berlin, which was your original plan for episode.No, we could have been having that. We could have been having maybe a governance in Monmouth.Strong words in the nursery.But instead, we're going to have French diplomats, and we will be introducing some excellent French ambassadors. If you like comic French ambassadors, this series is definitely the one for you. So they will be featuring in our next episode. And if you're a member of the Restless History Club, you can, of course, get that and everything else that follows the whole series right now. If you're not, you can sign up and get it at therestlish history. Com. Till next time. Goodbye.Auf Wiedersehen..

are utterly humiliated and forced back into Austria.

Although in the long run, Serbia loses more than anybody.

Yeah, but that's down to the fact that the Germans have to bail out the Austrians as much as anything. Anyway, Chris Clarke has this wonderful lineup. It says, The Austrians resembled hedgehogs scurrying across a highway with their eyes averted from the onrushing traffic. Because often when they're having these discussions, it's Have they forgotten that Russia exists? Because they're not even mentioning it at all. How would you explain that? One possibility is that they're so dazzled by Germany's military prowess that they think the Russians would never dare. You can see in the Cold War, client states of the United States or the Soviet Union might think that about their own patron. Cuba might think that about the USSR in the 1960s. No one would dare mess with us.Not incorrectly.Yeah, because we've got a very powerful friend. I think an important thing with the Austrians, I think a lot of them genuinely think they have nothing to lose. That fatalism that we talked about the Germans is in their soul as well. They think their empires in danger of breaking up. They just think, if we don't do this now, what's the point? We might as well just leave the game.

But also Chris Clarke makes this point, and I think it's, again, as I said before, I don't think it's one that a lot of historians appreciate enough. The Austrians are so convinced that they are right, they just think this point that you made, the Tsar, why would he support regicide terrorists? Sure, the Russians have different interests from us, but they will surely recognize the heir to our throne and his wife have been shot in cold blood. Of course, the Russians will eventually say, Yeah, fair enough. And if they do turn out to be terrorist-loving monsters, then the Germans will just deal with them. Actually, we don't need to give them any thoughts at all. And in fact, I mean, unbelievably, they basically leave their Eastern border undefended against the Russians because they're just like, Well, yeah, let's not even think about that. Let's just concentrate on Serbia. What's the worst that could go wrong? We could lose our entire empire, the dynasty breaks up, and it's all been for nothing. But they don't really envisage that. So on the 21st of July, Berchtold and Count Hoyos, they go to Bad Ischal, which is the nice lakeside resort.

Is there a spa? Almost certainly there'll be a spa, Tom. It's probably one of those places where there's a big casino and a promenade. People are strolling with parasols.

Concert halls.

Yeah, absolutely.

The faint strains of violins drifting across the lake.

A Johann Strauss waltz. Yeah. That's exactly what it is. You told me when we first were going to do this series, Tom, I don't want to give the game away on the inside machinations of the rest of its history, but you wanted to make it 28 episodes, was it?

I did. Yes, I did. So this is my Kaiser-esque plan. We'd focus on the politics, but we didn't leave it with episodes called A Riding School in Vienna or A Cricket Match at Hove. Little vignettes of the life that is about to be lost. I still think that would have been fun.

Well, you've got it now, right? No. People are waltzing on the shores of bad issue.

Could have had a little episode on this. But Dominic, like the German military staff that he is, overruled me, the headstrong Kaiser.

There was no blank check It's fair, Tom. It's fair to say. Anyway, as the last strains of Anton Bruckner are dying away in the distance, they hand over the ultimatum to the Emperor. We will describe the ultimatum in a subsequent episode. Franz Joseph says, when he sees it, he says, Is that Is it quite harsh. It's really harsh. And he says to them right then and there, There's no way the Russians will tolerate this. This is very, very harsh. But then, in that Austrian way, he says, Yeah, but let's figure out the Russians. It's crack on. Whatever. Let's do it anyway. Berktold said in his diary, The Emperor was fully alive to the profound seriousness, even the tragedy of the current historical moment. But what an ironic line that is, because, of course, they have no idea, Tom, of just how serious and just how tragic that moment would turn out to be.

Right. Well, another brilliant episode, Dominic. Thank you. We will find out what happens next on the road to war in our third episode when we'll be looking at views from Russia and from France.

So not as planned, a boating party in Berlin, which was your original plan for episode.

No, we could have been having that. We could have been having maybe a governance in Monmouth.

Strong words in the nursery.

But instead, we're going to have French diplomats, and we will be introducing some excellent French ambassadors. If you like comic French ambassadors, this series is definitely the one for you. So they will be featuring in our next episode. And if you're a member of the Restless History Club, you can, of course, get that and everything else that follows the whole series right now. If you're not, you can sign up and get it at therestlish history. Com. Till next time. Goodbye.

Auf Wiedersehen..