Thank you for listening to the rest is history. For weekly bonus episodes, ad free listening, early access to series and membership of our much loved chat community, go to therestishistory.com and join the club that is the restishory.com. tom, we've got brilliant news for the listeners, haven't we? Because although we are going on a tour to the United States in the autumn, we're a patriotic podcast. So we didn't want to leave people in our own beloved country feeling neglected. So we'll be going to two very different and diverse places in our United Kingdom, won't we, to meet the public?

We will. So we wanted to get a real spread. So, Dominic, we fixed on Cambridge and Oxford, two very random places. So we'll be at Cambridge, the corn exchange on the 17 September, and then we'll be at Oxford and we'll be at the new theater. And that will be on the 19 September.

We're massively looking forward to it, Tom, and what we'll be doing, we'll be talking about our new book, which has got the exciting title of the rest is history returns. And if you want to get your tickets, go right now to thereestishtory.com.

The discussion had reached its inconclusive end and the cabinet was about to separate when the quiet, grave tones of Sir Edward Grey's voice were heard reading a document which had just been brought to him from the Foreign Office. It was the austrian note to Serbia. We were all very tired. But gradually, as the phrases and sentences followed one another, impressions of a wholly different character began to form. In my mind. This note was clearly an ultimatum. But it was an ultimatum such as had never been penned in modern times. As the reading proceeded, it seemed absolutely impossible that any state in the world could accept it, or that any acceptance, however abject, would satisfy the aggressor. The parishes of Fermanagh and Tyrone faded back into the mists and squalls of Ireland, and a strange light began immediately, but by perceptible gradations to fall and to grow upon the map of Europe.

So that Dominic was Winston Churchill, of course, writing in the world crisis, which is a book largely about himself, I think, isn't it?

It isn't it.

On the cabinet meeting held in London, the capital of the United Kingdom and of the British Empire on the 24 July 1914. And Churchill there is describing the moment that the british foreign secretary, and absolutely a personal hero of mine, Sir Edward Gray, reads the austrian ultimatum to Serbia to his colleagues in the liberal government and people who heard our last episode we ended with the world literally holding its breath, literally. Literally, as it waited for Serbia's reply to this very, very kind of strict and stern austrian ultimatum. And with the Russians and the French having pledged that they will hold firm against any sense of uppediness from Austria and more particularly from Germany. But I think we've had far too much focus on continental power so far, and I think it's excellent that at last we come to Britain.

At last, Tom, at last. So, hello, everybody. Yes, we've kept Britain deliberately off stage, haven't we, so far? Because Britain. Washington off stage. Actually, Britain hasn't really featured in the deliberations of the various powers, certainly not in the austrian and german deliberations, and not really. The French and the Russians have talked about binding Britain more closely to them. But how Britain will react is still very ambiguous. And, of course, it really, really matters. Britain in 1914 has a much smaller population than it does now, say about 40 42 million people.

And that's even though it has Ireland.

Yes, but it is the world's. You know, it's the top nation still, just about. It obviously was the world's first industrial nation, and it's still in the top two or three in most sort of indices. It has the world's largest empire, 400 million people, a quarter of the globe, and it has the world's greatest navy by far. But crucially, only a very, very small army. So although the british army have fought battles in the previous decades, they have generally been against, you know, Zulus, Burrs, Afghans, Sudanese and so on.

But they have picked up khaki, haven't they, as a result of their wars against the burrs. And there's a sense in which, actually the British probably have fought more wars than most continental powers.

They have. But they've been little wars, they've been police actions, they've involved quite small numbers of people.

Custaresque operations.

Exactly. Custer esque. Now, Britain historically had had alliances. It's not quite right to say that Britain had always stood alone. So, you know, the napoleonic wars, for example, Britain had been part of lots of different coalitions. And the way that british foreign policy had usually worked was that Britain relied on its navy. It had a small army and it basically paid other people to do the fighting. So obviously, like the Prussians, for example, against Napoleon.

And in the seven years war as well.

Exactly. In the seven years war. But recently, Britain has had this policy of so called splendid isolation. So Lord Salisbury, who was prime minister at the turn of the 20th century, had said our policy was to float lazily downstream, putting out the occasional diplomatic boat hook.

Great days, Dominic, great days.

Yeah. I like the sort of wind in the willows analogy with a picnic hamper. Exactly. But actually round about the time of the Boer War, which didn't go terribly well for Britain at first. There was a sort of sense of, well, actually, we've missed a trick here. We're fighting fires on lots of different fronts in the colonies and we don't really have any friends. So Joseph Chamberlain, colonial secretary, had said, we have no allies, we have no friends, we stand alone. And he had wanted an alliance with Germany and had got no joy out of it. So in the end, Britain had signed or agreed the Entente cordiale with France.

In 1904, which is a seismic change, isn't it?

A massive change, because we've said how.

Previously, basically, all these wars are being fought against France and Britain's continental ally is Prussia. A german state.

Yeah.

And now it's kind of veering around.

The other way and now Britain has switched horses.

But, Dominic, is that because Britain has a sense that you should always ally with a lesser power against the most threatening power on the continent? And is there a sense now that Germany has become what France used to be? And so the roles have switched?

I think that's a huge part of it, that Britain has always wanted to ensure that the continent is not dominated by a single power. So it makes sense that you ally with somebody, a tear down, as it were, against the kind of the top power on the continent. But also, as with the subsequent convention that we signed with Russia in 1907, there is an argument among a lot of historians that actually, what these are a Britain looking at the map and looking at where the big flashpoints are and saying, we will ally with those countries with whom we are most likely to have friction to basically dampen down the friction on our colonial frontiers. So with France, for example. Yeah, there had been a war scare as recently as 1898 in the Sudan, the so called Fashoda, or fashoda, I don't know how you pronounce it, actually, because I've never been and never spoken to any sudanese person about this incident. So this is a mystery to me, anyway.

Well, if we have any sudanese listeners, let us know.

Yeah. So Kitchener and a french guy had basically marched from different directions, arrived at this place. The French had been completely outnumbered and had been slightly humiliated. It was a big deal. And they want to avoid that happening again. And, of course, they really want to avoid it with Russia. So, for example, in his book the Sleepwalkers, great historian Christopher Clarke, Regis professor at Cambridge, he says, in a way, you could argue it's a kind of appeasement, that Russia is a big threat to our empire in Asia. We've had the great game with Russia.

It's India, isn't it? The jewel in the crown.

Yeah.

And the fear that russian forces will push down into India.

Right. That this is a great way of managing that, that if you actually sign an alliance with them, then, you know, that's fine. India is protected. Same with France in Africa or Southeast Asia or wherever it might be. And actually, the Foreign Office bigwigs say this quite explicitly. There's a guy called Charles Harding in 1909, and he writes a memo. He says, well, why are we allied with Russia? Which doesn't seem a natural fit for us at all, rather than, say, Germany, which a lot of people think would be a natural fit. Great ties of kind of the royal family's culture at this point, the late 19th, 30th, 20th century, there's all this stuff about kind of racial kindred, kith and kin, all of that kind of stuff.

So Saxons.

Saxons, exactly. And so Charles Harding says it's because we don't really have any issues with Germany. The only one is the naval race, which we are winning. But he says, our whole future in Asia is bound up with maintaining the best and most friendly relations with Russia. And the bigger and more powerful that Russia becomes, the more it industrializes, the more railways they build, all of that stuff, the more that people in the foreign office say, look, we absolutely have to keep the Russians on side. So Harding's successor, who's a guy called Sir Arthur Nicholson, he's very explicit about this. He says it is much more disadvantageous to us to have an unfriendly France and Russia than to have an unfriendly Germany.

And so what that implies is that the empire is actually a bit of a millstone, that it is kind of pulling british foreign policy off courses that it would otherwise be taking.

Yeah. Isn't that interesting? The sole priority, really, is the protection of the empire. And because of the protection of the empire, we have had to ally with people that maybe is a tiny bit distasteful. I mean, certainly with Russia. So remember, this is a liberal government. So there are a lot of kind of do gooders in this government. And they look at Russia and they say, really? Russia? Yeah. The most autocratic country in Europe.

Yeah. Against Germany.

Germany, science, you know, high culture, social democracy, big trade unions, all that. Really? We're going with the Russians and the Foreign Office people say, hey, we've got to be realistic. It's all about protecting the empire. This is what makes most sense.

So that doesn't necessarily translate into anti german feeling, does it? And yet, as we've often talked on this podcast, there is a kind of anti german mood abroad in England at that time. There are all those kind of books about the battle of the Dorking gap, and when William came, it's kind of scare stories about a german conquest of Britain.

Yes, uniquely after the franco prussian war. So those hadn't existed really before, but after Germany is created in 1870. You're absolutely right, Tom. You get this sort of growing anxiety about Germany and it really, really starts to kick in, I think, round about the very late end of the 1890s, the Boer War. You know, we're fighting Boers who are not so dissimilar from Germans.

Well, the Germans. I mean, the Kaiser famously sends supportive telegrams, doesn't he?

He does. The Kaiser. And in fact, lots of Germans and frankly, lots of other people around the world say, the plucky burr underdogs and these bullying shopkeeper, you know, the British.

With the butcher's apron.

Exactly. So there's a lot of stuff about that. There are all those, as you said. I mean, I love all that invasion scare stuff. It'd be a brilliant subject, actually, for a podcast, really, whipped up by the Northcliffe newspapers. So my old stamping grounds, the Daily Mail, very prominent in that, because they.

Basically, they would publish scare stories in places where their circulation was low.

Yeah. Well, then what they did was the key battles took place in places where.

They had lots of.

Lots of readers, because to terrify Watford, sacked by the Prussians or whatever. And then the other thing is the naval race, once the german empire was established and then once it's sort of got going, they decide they'd like a fleet. A fleet is seen in the 1890s as really the supreme badge. It's like having nuclear weapons or something. This is your ticket to the top table. The British are very offended by this. They start building dreadnoughts, and this creates a lot of antagonism. But actually, Britain wins that naval race hands down. By 1913, the Germans have unilaterally declared, it's over. We can't compete. We're not going to carry on building dreadnoughts at the same rate. You know, fine, have your naval advantage. So that actually means that as you get to 1914, the temperature is a little bit lower than it had been.

Yeah. So we already mentioned it. That trip to Berlin by Haldane.

Richard Haldane, yeah, the war minister.

The war minister. To try and kind of form a german equivalent of the Entente Cordiale. I mean, it fails, but presumably it's a sign that actually relations between them are thawing.

Yes, I think so.

I mean, because on the kind of personal level, there are lots of people in the british upper classes who are very, very keen on Germany to a degree that is, you know, is not comparable today.

No.

People have been massively influenced by german culture for an entire century, going back to the time of Coleridge, you know, George Eliot, all those kind of intellectuals hugely influenced by Germany in a way that would be inconceivable today.

I mean, I think you could reasonably argue that if there was a point in recent in modern british history when people were most keen on Germany and german culture, it was actually in the 19 hundreds and 1910s.

Yeah, so ironic, isn't it?

And it went both ways. So the man who had masterminded the naval race for the Germans, Grand Admiral Tirpitz, he had an english governess for his daughters and then he sent his daughters to Cheltenham Ladies College because he wanted them to have an english education.

That's amazing.

So even in that cabinet, in that meeting that you described so beautifully with your Churchill voice, Sir John Simon, who's one of the liberal cabinet ministers, he had said publicly, the fellow countrymen of Shakespeare and Milton cannot look askance on the fellow countrymen of Goethe and Schiller and those with the tradition of Wycliffe and Wesley have no ground of quarrel with the descendants of Luther.

Yeah, there's the famous german joke about Shakespeare, isn't it, that the english translation of Shakespeare isn't bad?

Yeah, well, the Germans absolutely adore and look up to british high culture, there's no question about that. So you have that now, you do have people in the Foreign Office who are very down on Germany, and we'll get into one of them a little bit later in the story. But Christopher Clarke talks about this in the sleepwalkers. He says there's a steady stream of memos and minutes arguing about the threat posed by Berlin. And he has a lovely analogy, which I think could be developed even further. He says, all of these people, they read those kind of edwardian stories in which there's a new boy at the school, you know, he's maybe a bit vulgar.

New money.

Yeah, new money. He's comes from new money and he's a bit of a braggart and he's a blusterer and the older boys sort of punish him and tame him.

Yeah. He's not familiar with the traditional rules of the school.

I mean, he says this is how Foreign Office mandarins talked about Germany. And, of course, this, by the way, is how Kaiser Wilhelm's relatives talk about him.

The Kaiser undoubtedly has a feeling that he's been treated a bit like that.

Yeah, absolutely.

The new boy who's not being made to feel welcome in the dorm.

And, of course, what gives that an extra charge is that Germany is doing so well, so that Germany, by the outbreak of the first World War, has overtaken Britain and industrial production. It is right behind Britain in its share of world trade. People are aware of these figures, you know, they have a real sense of it. People make jokes in the early 20th century about products that stamped made in Germany, and they find that, you know, as unsettling as Americans did in the 1980s and 1990s when it was made in Japan or something.

Yeah. So kind of what the Americans would call the Thucydides trap.

Yes, the Thucydides trap. Exactly. The rising power must, by definition, challenge.

But do you think that's right? Do you think that it's inevitable that, for instance, Britain would see Germany as an enemy rather than as a potential ally?

No, I don't think it's inevitable, because.

The implication of what you're saying is that that's not the case at all.

I don't think it is inevitable. We've already mentioned two different very, very influential british politicians, Joseph Chamberlain and Richard Haldane. Huge figures in their day, not maybe household names today, but huge figures in the 1890s, 19 hundreds who really, really wanted an alliance with Germany. And I think the general sense, certainly by 1914 is, yeah, we've had a spats and arguments and things, but actually things are now getting much better. So Arthur Nicholson, who's running the Foreign Office, the top civil servant, says, the Germans have been making great efforts to be on the best possible terms with us. And, you know, to some extent, they've succeeded. David Lloyd George, the chancellor, gave an interview on New Year's Day, 1914 to the Daily News, and he said, our relations with Germany are infinitely more friendly now than they have been for years. Now there'll be some people who believed that point that you make thucydides trap, some people in the foreign office who would say, realistically, Germany is actually Gray is also meeting other ambassadors. For example, he meets the russian ambassador, Count von Benkendor. Everybody has the wrong name. Lichnowsky and Benkendorf should have swapped surnames, bizarrely, I mean, or not bizarrely, given how edwardian diplomatic politics works. Benkendorf, the russian ambassador, and Lichnowsky, the german ambassador, are cousins.Of course they are.So he meets him and he says to him, what we should perhaps do is reassure the Germans. We don't want the Germans to be too isolated. We want to reassure them. You know, he still thinks the Russians, the French, the Germans, indeed the Austrians, they're all solid chaps. They can all be brought to see sense. Of course there are differences between them, but if I show myself to be a man of good faith, they will all agree to some sort of mediation. And as you said, tom, that's slightly missing the point that he's already promised the French that when it comes to the crunch, he will be on their side, so they can kind of ignore him if they want. They don't have to go with his kind of mediation proposals. So right up to the point, when the Austrians issue their ultimatum, he is still pretty sympathetic to Austria. So the 22 July, he meets the austrian ambassador. Like all austrian ambassadors, he has an enormous name. Count Albert Victor Julius Joseph Mikhail Graf von Mensdorf. Puili dichtrant Dietrich Stein.Crazy name. Crazy guy.We call him Count Mensdorf. And Mensdorf reports to Vienna. He says, gray is not without sympathy for us. He's very cool, he's very friendly. He is worried about what will happen. And actually the ambassador says to Vienna, I am anxious that when Gray sees our ultimatum, he will be really shocked.And he is, isn't he?And he is. So that meeting that you described in your Churchill voice, Tom, 24 July. Gray reads that out to his cabinet colleagues and he says, this is the most formidable declaration I've ever seen addressed by one state to another. And they all say, well, well, the one thing we don't want to do is to get involved in a world war. They're absolutely adamant about that. And they say to him, the thing to do is you go to the Germans and you go to the French, and the three of you together should be able to persuade the Austrians and the Russians not to fall out about this. Now, of course, what that completely misses, they do not realize how committed the decision makers in Paris and Berlin already are.So it's a failure of intelligence.I think it is a little bit. It's amazing to me that until such a late stage. Gray, perhaps misled, actually, by some of those ambassadors in London who have gone a bit native. He doesn't get that, actually. The partners for his various mediation proposals just don't actually exist.But there is, of course, an ambassador in London who has not gone native, and that is the french ambassador, Paul Cambon, who we've already mentioned.Yes.Who has been in London since 1898 as ambassador 16 years. But just as Gray does not speak a word of French, Paul Cambon does not speak a word of English, despite having been in the country for 16 years. And I hugely admire that. That is what I want from a french ambassador.I mean, the amazing thing, I can't remember where I've got this from. I think it's from Chris Clark.It is. He's very funny about Cambod.During his meetings, Cambod insisted that every single utterance be translated into French, including easily recognized words such as. Yes.Yeah.So when Gray said to him, yes, this little man at the side would say, we.And also his opposition to there being french schools in England on the grounds that anyone who goes to such schools are likely to grow up intellectually stunted.Yes. And can you think of anybody, Tom? Can you think of anybody? A Frenchman who went to a school in England and possibly, you know, there are question marks about his acumen and maybe his life choices. Theo. Poor old Theo.And also the weird thing is that Cambon's brother Jules is the ambassador to Germany. So again, it's all a kind of family affair, isn't it? Yeah.So they met Graham Cambon after that cabinet meeting on the 24 July, and Gray said, I've dreamed up a solution to this crisis, and it's a four power mediation. So there'll be four mediators, there'll be Britain, France, Germany and Italy. And between us, we can. We can sort this out. Now. There are massive problems with this idea that Gray doesn't realize. Number one is France and Germany don't even want to do it, really. They're not signed up to the idea of mediation because they are both already signed up to the idea of calling your opponents bluff and not backing down and being firm and all that business. But also that lineup that he's described would inevitably vote three one against Austria because Britain and France are kind of allies with Russia and Serbia, Germany, obviously, with Austria and Italy, nominally with Germany and Austria, but actually hates the Austrians. So that is a problem. Gray doesn't realize it, of course, and.Neither does Asquith, does he? Because on the 24 July, the same day that Gray is talking to Campbell. Asquith is writing in his journal, we are within measurable or imaginable distance of real Armageddon. And the we. There is Europe. Happily, there seems to be no reason why we, meaning Britain, should be anything more than spectators.Yes. So just on Asquith. Asquith, a great friend of the rest, is history. Much loved prime ministerial figure. Much maligned, I think, by some people at Gollhanger, Tom, very, very cruelly so. Asquith, famously, the kind of incarnation of the effortless superiority of the balliol man. We know a lot about what he's thinking during this period because he's slightly letting himself down, isn't he, by. He's got a bit of a crush on his daughter's best friend, so his daughter's violet. And her best friend is called Venetia Stanley. She's 26 years old. Asquith is 62. 62. So I'm not defending it, Tom. It is what it is. So he's sending her all these love letters and he will often write to her. I mean, he actually writes to her during cabinet meetings, which I think is probably not. Not ideal.Yeah. You can't imagine Theresa May doing that.No, absolutely not. There is one recent prime minister I can imagine doing that, but let's not bring him into it.Yes.So he says to Venetia that evening, I'm worried the Russia is trying to drag us into the war. And he actually then goes on to say, and I think this absolutely captures the british attitude. Asquith says, the curious thing is that on many, if not most, of the points, Austria has a good and Serbia a very bad case. But the Austrians are quite the stupidest people in Europe and there is a brutality in their mode of procedure which will make most people think it's a case of a big power wantonly bullying a little one. And another point, actually. He writes to her and he says, what the Serbs need is a damn good thrashing. So the British are not Serbia by any means, and they're not ostraphobic, but all they want to do is they want to see Serbia get a bit of a slap on the wrist from the Austrians. So the Austrians are happy and then it all calmed down and they can go back to their fishing and he can play bridge and think about Venetia Stanley. That's basically Asquith's dream scenario. And Grays too, actually. I mean, gray, unbelievably.He goes off fishing, doesn't he?Yeah. She goes fishing the next day.Yeah. Tremendous behavior.This is the day, the 25 July Saturday, Tom, that the ultimatum expires. And Gray, who you might expect to stay, at least in London, says, no, I'm going to go fishing. And actually, he goes off to his country cottage, which is on the river itchen.I've seen it.Well, this is where the most controversial person in this whole story makes his appearance, right? Because not only have you seen it. Yeah, you went there with the fox murdering anti Brexit lawyer, Jolian Maugham.He's a charming mandehead.Well, I don't want to lose all our listeners, our british listeners.I went there with Fergus, who's undertones lead singer, but is also now campaigning basically, against Pooh being dumped in our beloved rivers.Yeah, sewage. Sewage is his thing.And we walked the itching and he brought jolly and warm, who was delightful.Really?Yeah, I liked him very much.Oh, my word, Tom.But, Dominic, I like everyone.You do? You do. I mean, to our overseas, this is. This is just mad babble. But british listeners can make their own minds up as they can about other controversial characters, such as the Kaiser and other such people. Right, this is all a massive red herring. Meanwhile, the Germans are thinking about Gray's mediation proposal. So that has got back to the Kaiser, the ambassadors reporter. The Kaiser does not like it at all. The Kaiser scribbles on it, on the piece of paper. He says it's useless, it's nonsense, it's a complete waste of time. And he says, why would we betray our one friend in Europe, Austria, who we've promised that we would back? Why would we suddenly say, well, actually, I think we should all have a bit of a mediation, you know, it's that classic thing of. I don't know, it's people who've fallen out. And one friend says, I'll stand by you no matter what, never give in to those miscreants down the road or whatever. And then the next day he says, actually, I was thinking I might organize a meeting in a cafe and we can all talk. But you're my side or not.The Kaiser thinks you can't do that to your friend.I think you're revealing details about your school days there, Dominic.Really? I'm a hold firm man, Tom. What could possibly go wrong? What's the worst that could happen?Just a shame that your hand wasn't on the tiller of the ship of state in 1914.Exactly, exactly. Well, I wouldn't be off fishing, that's for sure. Like some people wouldn't be fishing with fox murdering lawyers, to be fair.Yeah, Sir Edward Gray wasn't either.You know, he wasn't. He was on his own, wasn't he? Melancholy thinking about his wife and real tennis. So the Germans, at this point, were on the Saturday. The Germans still do not think that there will be a world war. And we know this, we can be pretty certain, because people in the foreign office are giving off the record interviews to Berlin newspapers. Gottlieb van Yagov, who is the foreign minister, is talking to the editor of the Berliner Tigerblatt, and he is saying, maybe war will come one day with Russia, and we must be firm. But it probably won't be today. His political director says the same thing. The Russians will. They'll just shout loudly and hot days will follow, but that will be it. And if you're going to be critical of the Germans, as a lot of historians are, you would say at this point, they are just being willfully reckless and self deluding. Again, it's the intelligence failure. They just don't understand how seriously the Russians are taking all this. Now, there are some people particularly. I mean, there are people in the Foreign office in London, some of Grey's mandarins, who are a little bit more hard nosed about this.And the classic example of this is a Mandev, an absolutely bizarre man called. He has a ridiculous name, actually. Why would you even call him to him? Sir air Crow.Yeah. Sir Air Crow.Yeah. Now, he is the chief germanophobe at.The British Foreign office, despite basically being.German, despite being german himself, which is bonkers. So he was born in Leipzig, educated in Dusseldorf and Berlin. He first came to Britain when he was 17 to cram for the foreign office examined. And he spoke with a german accent. One of his parents was british, which is how he qualified. And he is fanatically anti German. And you've got to believe there's some.Strange psychological kind of oedipal complex or something.Yeah, exactly. And he has been saying since 1907, Germany is a bully and a bra. It's the new boy. It's the bullying boy at school. Bullies only respect strength.It's reminiscent of Kipling's poem on Danegeld, isn't it?Yes.You mustn't pay it or you'll never.Get rid of the Dane.Yeah, we never pay anyone. Dane Geld.Yeah. So this weekend, Saturday the 25 July, he writes a memo to Gray that you will see cited in every single book about this, because it really does sum up the dilemma for Britain. He says if there's war, he thinks there will be a war. Because he says, I think the Germans really do want to take over the world because he hates Germany so much. And he says, if we stay out of this war, there are two alternatives. Number one is the Germans and the Austrians win. And in that case, they will dominate Europe, they will dominate the channel ports, all of that kind of thing. Our allies would have been crushed and we'll be left alone and friendless, at the mercy of the Prussians. That's number one. And he says, number two is the other possibility. Probably less likely the French and the Russians win. And he says, what would they make of us then? Because they would have won without us and they would despise us for not having helped them. And then they would turn on us. They would drive us out of the Mediterranean, they would drive us out of India.We would lose everything. And so Crow says to Gray, stop deluding yourself about your mediation and all that rubbish. You know, we should get stuck in. We have no choice. Our own policy has left us the logic of our policy. There is no debate to be had. We should get cracking on fighting, which is obviously not what Gray wants to do.So presumably Gray is hoping that the Serbs will maybe back down and that the whole crisis will go away.Yeah, maybe. Or that they will respond to the ultimatum in such a way that there will be a fudge. Maybe. Now, actually, let's move the focus back to Serbia. So Saturday is the day the ultimatum expires. What have they been up to? First of all, they've been making some limited military preparations. They've put the army in charge of their railways. They've started to bomb some of the bridges.Well, let's just remind people Belgrade is next to the river that constitutes the frontier with austro hungarian empire.There's two rivers, actually, because the border was so different in those days that affected the frontier, the Danube and the river Sava. So they are making preparations there all day. They've been working on a reply to the ultimatum. It's one of the most famous diplomatic documents in history, and it is covered with crossings out and scribbles because they keep changing their mind about what exactly to say, and they're in a terrible panic. The typewriter is jammed, so they're having to adjust it by hand. It's all a total shambles. One of the key men who's drafting the reply is the trade minister, who's called Velizar Yankovic. And on his mind all that day is the fact that, I mean, this tells you everything, I guess, about that kind of globalized pre 1914 world. His wife and children are on holiday in Austria Hungary. They're on the adriatic coast. They're in Croatia. So many people go to Croatia every year.Well, they're there because famous. This is an age where you don't need passports, right? Unless you're going to Russia, you can just go anywhere, right?Exactly, exactly. And if you're in Serbia, the dalmatian coast is exactly where you would go, you know, sunning yourself in Dubrovnik or whatever. And he says, oh, my God, if the ultimatum expires and more comes, they will be trapped. And he decides, this is an amazing story. He decides, I have to go to the german ambassador to ask him for help to get my family out. And he says to his coachman, take me to the german embassy. But in the general air of panic, and of course, Austria is on everybody's minds, the coachman goes to the wrong embassy. So he arrives at the austrian embassy at 05:00. The ultimatum expires at six. So the austrian ambassador is waiting for a serbian visitor.So he assumes this guy has come with the ultimatum.Yeah. Jankovic gets out and he's like, oh, they've sent the trade minister and Yankovic. There's a terrible realization, he's come to the wrong place. And the austrian ambassador is right there by the carriage saying, please step inside. So he steps in and then he says, I've actually come about a very embarrassing and awkward situation. And he explains, you know, if our countries are at war, my wife and children are on the wrong side of the border.Well, he's basically giving away what the Serbs are going to do by saying that, isn't he?Yes, exactly. And Baron Giesel responds splendidly. He says again, I think the voice you're looking for here is an Austrian. Roger Moore or sort of George Sanders.Christopher Plummer in the Sound of Music.Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, that's exactly. He says, it will be my pleasure, as a gentleman, to see to it that your family have special passports to take them to Venice. And our government will give them ten gold napoleons, so they are not out of pocket.Do you know, Dominic, I know that this is the most disastrous failure of diplomacy in global history, but weirdly, I think diplomats are coming out very well from this story.They're making a lot of mistakes, I think it's fair to say.Yeah, but they're all tremendous chaps.They're all tremendous fellows.Yeah.You'd love to have a dinner party with them, wouldn't you? You really would. Baron Giesel, Prince Lichnowski all these characters, probably not the french guy, because, you know, I don't want to see his translator. So as Yankovic leaves, it occurs to him the baron is in his traveling clothes. He's wearing plus four s. Everything is packed up, ready to go, ready for war. And he realizes, you know, there is no way the Austrians are not going to fight. And indeed, with five minutes to go until the deadline, 555, the prime minister, Nikola Pazisch, arrives at the austrian legation. Giesel shows him into the study and Pasitch says, part of your demands we have accepted. For the rest, we place our hope in the loyalty and chivalry of an austrian general. And he gives him the reply to the note. And to cut a long story short, the reply to the note is often misconstrued. People say the Serbs accepted all the demands except I. The most inflammatory number, six. That's actually not right.And that's the one where the Habsburgs demand the right to join the investigation on serbian soil.But that's not right. They accepted all the demands in theory, but not in practice, with caveats. There were always caveats. They said, well, we don't think this nationalist organization even exists, but if you can prove it exists, we'll help you to shut it down. Or they say, yes, we will do this insofar as it is commensurate with international law. So when Giesel looks at the document, he says, I mean, he wrote later, nearly all our demands were twisted, robbed of their meaning and purpose and their fulfillment, if not directly refused, was so hedged in reservations that it was, in practice, useless. And all diplomatic historians, by the way, this isn't an anti serbian thing. All diplomatic historians have said it was a brilliantly, brilliantly written reply that basically gave the Austrians, seemed to give them almost everything, but in reality gave them absolutely nothing. And Giesel reads it and he says, fine, it's absolutely clear. He said, I had nothing to weigh, nothing to decide. All there was to do was to leave. So he burns the ciphers, he literally locks the embassy and gives the key to the Germans, please look after the embassy.And then he goes to the station. And you were saying about diplomats, Tom, all the other diplomats, all the other ambassadors have assembled at the station to see him off, waving their top hats and stuff, except for the Russians, I suppose you'd say. Understandably. The French, I think they could have tried. And the Romanians who were trying to get into bed with the Russians and the French, I think they could have made a showing as well. I think that was poor.Well, I'm afraid that reflects badly on all three.All three. Exactly. You were saying how close it is. It took him ten minutes to get the train and then to cross the bridge into austrian territory. That's how close they are. The news reaches Vienna very quickly, of course, and there are huge crowds outside the war ministry. There are people singing patriotic songs. They're singing this famous anthem about the siege of Belgrade in 1717. They're waving flags, great crowds of students. We should sacrifice everything for our emperor. There is genuine excitement in Austria, and.This is what gives people the sense that everyone greeted the war with great enthusiasm. Yeah, but it's kind of surface froth to a degree, isn't it?It's surface. And, of course, don't forget the Austrians. They think they're only fighting Serbia. I mean, as it happens, their campaign is. Serbia is a total disaster. But it's a slightly different issue. A small balkan war, and they're not celebrating a world war. They're celebrating revenge for their archduke. As they sit, however, there is one person who doesn't react in quite that way. The emperor Franz Josef is in bad Ischl on the lakeside at his summer house with Count Berchdald, the foreign minister. And they're waiting for the news. And an aide comes in to tell Franz Josef the news and says, the ultimatum expired. You know, relations have been severed, whatever. And Franz Josef just is totally quiet and still, and he just says, well, then, there it is.And there it is. The states of Europe tethered together by a mountaineer as rope, getting ready to vanish over the precipice into the abyss. Dominic of war. So if you want to follow that, we have two more episodes of this series to go, and they'll be out in due course. But if you want to hear them straight away, you can, of course, get those last two episodes right now by joining the rest is History club at the Restish history.com, or accessing it immediately if you want. Already a member of the rest is History club. Either way, we'll be back with the final two episodes in the series very soon. Bye.

actually Gray is also meeting other ambassadors. For example, he meets the russian ambassador, Count von Benkendor. Everybody has the wrong name. Lichnowsky and Benkendorf should have swapped surnames, bizarrely, I mean, or not bizarrely, given how edwardian diplomatic politics works. Benkendorf, the russian ambassador, and Lichnowsky, the german ambassador, are cousins.

Of course they are.

So he meets him and he says to him, what we should perhaps do is reassure the Germans. We don't want the Germans to be too isolated. We want to reassure them. You know, he still thinks the Russians, the French, the Germans, indeed the Austrians, they're all solid chaps. They can all be brought to see sense. Of course there are differences between them, but if I show myself to be a man of good faith, they will all agree to some sort of mediation. And as you said, tom, that's slightly missing the point that he's already promised the French that when it comes to the crunch, he will be on their side, so they can kind of ignore him if they want. They don't have to go with his kind of mediation proposals. So right up to the point, when the Austrians issue their ultimatum, he is still pretty sympathetic to Austria. So the 22 July, he meets the austrian ambassador. Like all austrian ambassadors, he has an enormous name. Count Albert Victor Julius Joseph Mikhail Graf von Mensdorf. Puili dichtrant Dietrich Stein.

Crazy name. Crazy guy.

We call him Count Mensdorf. And Mensdorf reports to Vienna. He says, gray is not without sympathy for us. He's very cool, he's very friendly. He is worried about what will happen. And actually the ambassador says to Vienna, I am anxious that when Gray sees our ultimatum, he will be really shocked.

And he is, isn't he?

And he is. So that meeting that you described in your Churchill voice, Tom, 24 July. Gray reads that out to his cabinet colleagues and he says, this is the most formidable declaration I've ever seen addressed by one state to another. And they all say, well, well, the one thing we don't want to do is to get involved in a world war. They're absolutely adamant about that. And they say to him, the thing to do is you go to the Germans and you go to the French, and the three of you together should be able to persuade the Austrians and the Russians not to fall out about this. Now, of course, what that completely misses, they do not realize how committed the decision makers in Paris and Berlin already are.

So it's a failure of intelligence.

I think it is a little bit. It's amazing to me that until such a late stage. Gray, perhaps misled, actually, by some of those ambassadors in London who have gone a bit native. He doesn't get that, actually. The partners for his various mediation proposals just don't actually exist.

But there is, of course, an ambassador in London who has not gone native, and that is the french ambassador, Paul Cambon, who we've already mentioned.

Yes.

Who has been in London since 1898 as ambassador 16 years. But just as Gray does not speak a word of French, Paul Cambon does not speak a word of English, despite having been in the country for 16 years. And I hugely admire that. That is what I want from a french ambassador.

I mean, the amazing thing, I can't remember where I've got this from. I think it's from Chris Clark.

It is. He's very funny about Cambod.

During his meetings, Cambod insisted that every single utterance be translated into French, including easily recognized words such as. Yes.

Yeah.

So when Gray said to him, yes, this little man at the side would say, we.

And also his opposition to there being french schools in England on the grounds that anyone who goes to such schools are likely to grow up intellectually stunted.

Yes. And can you think of anybody, Tom? Can you think of anybody? A Frenchman who went to a school in England and possibly, you know, there are question marks about his acumen and maybe his life choices. Theo. Poor old Theo.

And also the weird thing is that Cambon's brother Jules is the ambassador to Germany. So again, it's all a kind of family affair, isn't it? Yeah.

So they met Graham Cambon after that cabinet meeting on the 24 July, and Gray said, I've dreamed up a solution to this crisis, and it's a four power mediation. So there'll be four mediators, there'll be Britain, France, Germany and Italy. And between us, we can. We can sort this out. Now. There are massive problems with this idea that Gray doesn't realize. Number one is France and Germany don't even want to do it, really. They're not signed up to the idea of mediation because they are both already signed up to the idea of calling your opponents bluff and not backing down and being firm and all that business. But also that lineup that he's described would inevitably vote three one against Austria because Britain and France are kind of allies with Russia and Serbia, Germany, obviously, with Austria and Italy, nominally with Germany and Austria, but actually hates the Austrians. So that is a problem. Gray doesn't realize it, of course, and.

Neither does Asquith, does he? Because on the 24 July, the same day that Gray is talking to Campbell. Asquith is writing in his journal, we are within measurable or imaginable distance of real Armageddon. And the we. There is Europe. Happily, there seems to be no reason why we, meaning Britain, should be anything more than spectators.

Yes. So just on Asquith. Asquith, a great friend of the rest, is history. Much loved prime ministerial figure. Much maligned, I think, by some people at Gollhanger, Tom, very, very cruelly so. Asquith, famously, the kind of incarnation of the effortless superiority of the balliol man. We know a lot about what he's thinking during this period because he's slightly letting himself down, isn't he, by. He's got a bit of a crush on his daughter's best friend, so his daughter's violet. And her best friend is called Venetia Stanley. She's 26 years old. Asquith is 62. 62. So I'm not defending it, Tom. It is what it is. So he's sending her all these love letters and he will often write to her. I mean, he actually writes to her during cabinet meetings, which I think is probably not. Not ideal.

Yeah. You can't imagine Theresa May doing that.

No, absolutely not. There is one recent prime minister I can imagine doing that, but let's not bring him into it.

Yes.

So he says to Venetia that evening, I'm worried the Russia is trying to drag us into the war. And he actually then goes on to say, and I think this absolutely captures the british attitude. Asquith says, the curious thing is that on many, if not most, of the points, Austria has a good and Serbia a very bad case. But the Austrians are quite the stupidest people in Europe and there is a brutality in their mode of procedure which will make most people think it's a case of a big power wantonly bullying a little one. And another point, actually. He writes to her and he says, what the Serbs need is a damn good thrashing. So the British are not Serbia by any means, and they're not ostraphobic, but all they want to do is they want to see Serbia get a bit of a slap on the wrist from the Austrians. So the Austrians are happy and then it all calmed down and they can go back to their fishing and he can play bridge and think about Venetia Stanley. That's basically Asquith's dream scenario. And Grays too, actually. I mean, gray, unbelievably.

He goes off fishing, doesn't he?

Yeah. She goes fishing the next day.

Yeah. Tremendous behavior.

This is the day, the 25 July Saturday, Tom, that the ultimatum expires. And Gray, who you might expect to stay, at least in London, says, no, I'm going to go fishing. And actually, he goes off to his country cottage, which is on the river itchen.

I've seen it.

Well, this is where the most controversial person in this whole story makes his appearance, right? Because not only have you seen it. Yeah, you went there with the fox murdering anti Brexit lawyer, Jolian Maugham.

He's a charming mandehead.

Well, I don't want to lose all our listeners, our british listeners.

I went there with Fergus, who's undertones lead singer, but is also now campaigning basically, against Pooh being dumped in our beloved rivers.

Yeah, sewage. Sewage is his thing.

And we walked the itching and he brought jolly and warm, who was delightful.

Really?

Yeah, I liked him very much.

Oh, my word, Tom.

But, Dominic, I like everyone.

You do? You do. I mean, to our overseas, this is. This is just mad babble. But british listeners can make their own minds up as they can about other controversial characters, such as the Kaiser and other such people. Right, this is all a massive red herring. Meanwhile, the Germans are thinking about Gray's mediation proposal. So that has got back to the Kaiser, the ambassadors reporter. The Kaiser does not like it at all. The Kaiser scribbles on it, on the piece of paper. He says it's useless, it's nonsense, it's a complete waste of time. And he says, why would we betray our one friend in Europe, Austria, who we've promised that we would back? Why would we suddenly say, well, actually, I think we should all have a bit of a mediation, you know, it's that classic thing of. I don't know, it's people who've fallen out. And one friend says, I'll stand by you no matter what, never give in to those miscreants down the road or whatever. And then the next day he says, actually, I was thinking I might organize a meeting in a cafe and we can all talk. But you're my side or not.

The Kaiser thinks you can't do that to your friend.

I think you're revealing details about your school days there, Dominic.

Really? I'm a hold firm man, Tom. What could possibly go wrong? What's the worst that could happen?

Just a shame that your hand wasn't on the tiller of the ship of state in 1914.

Exactly, exactly. Well, I wouldn't be off fishing, that's for sure. Like some people wouldn't be fishing with fox murdering lawyers, to be fair.

Yeah, Sir Edward Gray wasn't either.

You know, he wasn't. He was on his own, wasn't he? Melancholy thinking about his wife and real tennis. So the Germans, at this point, were on the Saturday. The Germans still do not think that there will be a world war. And we know this, we can be pretty certain, because people in the foreign office are giving off the record interviews to Berlin newspapers. Gottlieb van Yagov, who is the foreign minister, is talking to the editor of the Berliner Tigerblatt, and he is saying, maybe war will come one day with Russia, and we must be firm. But it probably won't be today. His political director says the same thing. The Russians will. They'll just shout loudly and hot days will follow, but that will be it. And if you're going to be critical of the Germans, as a lot of historians are, you would say at this point, they are just being willfully reckless and self deluding. Again, it's the intelligence failure. They just don't understand how seriously the Russians are taking all this. Now, there are some people particularly. I mean, there are people in the Foreign office in London, some of Grey's mandarins, who are a little bit more hard nosed about this.

And the classic example of this is a Mandev, an absolutely bizarre man called. He has a ridiculous name, actually. Why would you even call him to him? Sir air Crow.

Yeah. Sir Air Crow.

Yeah. Now, he is the chief germanophobe at.

The British Foreign office, despite basically being.

German, despite being german himself, which is bonkers. So he was born in Leipzig, educated in Dusseldorf and Berlin. He first came to Britain when he was 17 to cram for the foreign office examined. And he spoke with a german accent. One of his parents was british, which is how he qualified. And he is fanatically anti German. And you've got to believe there's some.

Strange psychological kind of oedipal complex or something.

Yeah, exactly. And he has been saying since 1907, Germany is a bully and a bra. It's the new boy. It's the bullying boy at school. Bullies only respect strength.

It's reminiscent of Kipling's poem on Danegeld, isn't it?

Yes.

You mustn't pay it or you'll never.

Get rid of the Dane.

Yeah, we never pay anyone. Dane Geld.

Yeah. So this weekend, Saturday the 25 July, he writes a memo to Gray that you will see cited in every single book about this, because it really does sum up the dilemma for Britain. He says if there's war, he thinks there will be a war. Because he says, I think the Germans really do want to take over the world because he hates Germany so much. And he says, if we stay out of this war, there are two alternatives. Number one is the Germans and the Austrians win. And in that case, they will dominate Europe, they will dominate the channel ports, all of that kind of thing. Our allies would have been crushed and we'll be left alone and friendless, at the mercy of the Prussians. That's number one. And he says, number two is the other possibility. Probably less likely the French and the Russians win. And he says, what would they make of us then? Because they would have won without us and they would despise us for not having helped them. And then they would turn on us. They would drive us out of the Mediterranean, they would drive us out of India.

We would lose everything. And so Crow says to Gray, stop deluding yourself about your mediation and all that rubbish. You know, we should get stuck in. We have no choice. Our own policy has left us the logic of our policy. There is no debate to be had. We should get cracking on fighting, which is obviously not what Gray wants to do.

So presumably Gray is hoping that the Serbs will maybe back down and that the whole crisis will go away.

Yeah, maybe. Or that they will respond to the ultimatum in such a way that there will be a fudge. Maybe. Now, actually, let's move the focus back to Serbia. So Saturday is the day the ultimatum expires. What have they been up to? First of all, they've been making some limited military preparations. They've put the army in charge of their railways. They've started to bomb some of the bridges.

Well, let's just remind people Belgrade is next to the river that constitutes the frontier with austro hungarian empire.

There's two rivers, actually, because the border was so different in those days that affected the frontier, the Danube and the river Sava. So they are making preparations there all day. They've been working on a reply to the ultimatum. It's one of the most famous diplomatic documents in history, and it is covered with crossings out and scribbles because they keep changing their mind about what exactly to say, and they're in a terrible panic. The typewriter is jammed, so they're having to adjust it by hand. It's all a total shambles. One of the key men who's drafting the reply is the trade minister, who's called Velizar Yankovic. And on his mind all that day is the fact that, I mean, this tells you everything, I guess, about that kind of globalized pre 1914 world. His wife and children are on holiday in Austria Hungary. They're on the adriatic coast. They're in Croatia. So many people go to Croatia every year.

Well, they're there because famous. This is an age where you don't need passports, right? Unless you're going to Russia, you can just go anywhere, right?

Exactly, exactly. And if you're in Serbia, the dalmatian coast is exactly where you would go, you know, sunning yourself in Dubrovnik or whatever. And he says, oh, my God, if the ultimatum expires and more comes, they will be trapped. And he decides, this is an amazing story. He decides, I have to go to the german ambassador to ask him for help to get my family out. And he says to his coachman, take me to the german embassy. But in the general air of panic, and of course, Austria is on everybody's minds, the coachman goes to the wrong embassy. So he arrives at the austrian embassy at 05:00. The ultimatum expires at six. So the austrian ambassador is waiting for a serbian visitor.

So he assumes this guy has come with the ultimatum.

Yeah. Jankovic gets out and he's like, oh, they've sent the trade minister and Yankovic. There's a terrible realization, he's come to the wrong place. And the austrian ambassador is right there by the carriage saying, please step inside. So he steps in and then he says, I've actually come about a very embarrassing and awkward situation. And he explains, you know, if our countries are at war, my wife and children are on the wrong side of the border.

Well, he's basically giving away what the Serbs are going to do by saying that, isn't he?

Yes, exactly. And Baron Giesel responds splendidly. He says again, I think the voice you're looking for here is an Austrian. Roger Moore or sort of George Sanders.

Christopher Plummer in the Sound of Music.

Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, that's exactly. He says, it will be my pleasure, as a gentleman, to see to it that your family have special passports to take them to Venice. And our government will give them ten gold napoleons, so they are not out of pocket.

Do you know, Dominic, I know that this is the most disastrous failure of diplomacy in global history, but weirdly, I think diplomats are coming out very well from this story.

They're making a lot of mistakes, I think it's fair to say.

Yeah, but they're all tremendous chaps.

They're all tremendous fellows.

Yeah.

You'd love to have a dinner party with them, wouldn't you? You really would. Baron Giesel, Prince Lichnowski all these characters, probably not the french guy, because, you know, I don't want to see his translator. So as Yankovic leaves, it occurs to him the baron is in his traveling clothes. He's wearing plus four s. Everything is packed up, ready to go, ready for war. And he realizes, you know, there is no way the Austrians are not going to fight. And indeed, with five minutes to go until the deadline, 555, the prime minister, Nikola Pazisch, arrives at the austrian legation. Giesel shows him into the study and Pasitch says, part of your demands we have accepted. For the rest, we place our hope in the loyalty and chivalry of an austrian general. And he gives him the reply to the note. And to cut a long story short, the reply to the note is often misconstrued. People say the Serbs accepted all the demands except I. The most inflammatory number, six. That's actually not right.

And that's the one where the Habsburgs demand the right to join the investigation on serbian soil.

But that's not right. They accepted all the demands in theory, but not in practice, with caveats. There were always caveats. They said, well, we don't think this nationalist organization even exists, but if you can prove it exists, we'll help you to shut it down. Or they say, yes, we will do this insofar as it is commensurate with international law. So when Giesel looks at the document, he says, I mean, he wrote later, nearly all our demands were twisted, robbed of their meaning and purpose and their fulfillment, if not directly refused, was so hedged in reservations that it was, in practice, useless. And all diplomatic historians, by the way, this isn't an anti serbian thing. All diplomatic historians have said it was a brilliantly, brilliantly written reply that basically gave the Austrians, seemed to give them almost everything, but in reality gave them absolutely nothing. And Giesel reads it and he says, fine, it's absolutely clear. He said, I had nothing to weigh, nothing to decide. All there was to do was to leave. So he burns the ciphers, he literally locks the embassy and gives the key to the Germans, please look after the embassy.

And then he goes to the station. And you were saying about diplomats, Tom, all the other diplomats, all the other ambassadors have assembled at the station to see him off, waving their top hats and stuff, except for the Russians, I suppose you'd say. Understandably. The French, I think they could have tried. And the Romanians who were trying to get into bed with the Russians and the French, I think they could have made a showing as well. I think that was poor.

Well, I'm afraid that reflects badly on all three.

All three. Exactly. You were saying how close it is. It took him ten minutes to get the train and then to cross the bridge into austrian territory. That's how close they are. The news reaches Vienna very quickly, of course, and there are huge crowds outside the war ministry. There are people singing patriotic songs. They're singing this famous anthem about the siege of Belgrade in 1717. They're waving flags, great crowds of students. We should sacrifice everything for our emperor. There is genuine excitement in Austria, and.

This is what gives people the sense that everyone greeted the war with great enthusiasm. Yeah, but it's kind of surface froth to a degree, isn't it?

It's surface. And, of course, don't forget the Austrians. They think they're only fighting Serbia. I mean, as it happens, their campaign is. Serbia is a total disaster. But it's a slightly different issue. A small balkan war, and they're not celebrating a world war. They're celebrating revenge for their archduke. As they sit, however, there is one person who doesn't react in quite that way. The emperor Franz Josef is in bad Ischl on the lakeside at his summer house with Count Berchdald, the foreign minister. And they're waiting for the news. And an aide comes in to tell Franz Josef the news and says, the ultimatum expired. You know, relations have been severed, whatever. And Franz Josef just is totally quiet and still, and he just says, well, then, there it is.

And there it is. The states of Europe tethered together by a mountaineer as rope, getting ready to vanish over the precipice into the abyss. Dominic of war. So if you want to follow that, we have two more episodes of this series to go, and they'll be out in due course. But if you want to hear them straight away, you can, of course, get those last two episodes right now by joining the rest is History club at the Restish history.com, or accessing it immediately if you want. Already a member of the rest is History club. Either way, we'll be back with the final two episodes in the series very soon. Bye.