One week ago today, my colleague Anna was in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in the rarest of circumstances, sitting in a chapel on the banks of Lake Michigan in a room of about 500 people, pretty evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats, with a good number of independents as well. This was the Braver Angels Convention, a non partisan group committed to finding common ground. People wore lanyards with their political affiliation, red for right, leaning, blue for left, yellow for independent. And this evening, the pews were packed for the main event, the presidential debate. As the debate got underway, the group sat largely in silence, laughing occasionally at a Trump quip or whispering nervously about Biden.

But then came the first commercial break. My name's Corey Zeck. Corey, wearing a blue lanyard, got up to speak. I have been cringing the entire time I've been watching this, to the point where just listening to Biden talk and responding, he's really not responding. In my opinion.

Trump's wiping the floor with him in this debate, if you want my honest opinion, and it's to the point watching this where I am considering flipping my vote, like for me, because I'm listening to Trump respond to this and respond to he's doing the same thing he always does, where he doesn't really answer the question that's being asked until the very last second, but he's convincing me, and that's taken a lot. Hey, thank you for sharing that. And thank you for saying that on the floor here. It's really, really interesting. What she saw on the screen horrified her and was causing her a sort of crisis of faith.

And she wasn't alone. Can I ask you, what did you think of the debate?

I thought it was a reason to drink, not at the Braver Angels convention. I wanted to, like, just lay down and cry, because I'm like, I don't want either of these people as my president. Why can't we have someone better and not nationally? The latest national poll from the New York Times and Sienna college shows Trump leading Biden by nine points among registered voters, a significant shift in the weeks since the debate. But what's also become clear in the short time since the debate is that no matter the public's reaction to Biden's performance, there's no clear path to replacing him as the democratic nominee.

And those in top positions in the Democratic Party have continued to rally around him. So when I arrived to the conference the day after the debate, I thought the braver angels could serve as a focus group of sorts, albeit a hyper engaged one, given that they've all chosen to spend their free time debating policy issues and politics. This unique political moment exposed a gap between voters and party leaders. Now that it's out in the open, what, if anything, comes next today, has Biden's debate performance made his campaign untenable? From the New York Times, I'm astead Herndon.

This is the run up.

Hi, how are you? Hi. My name is Esteb. This is Anna. We're from the New York Times.

A few days after the debate, I caught up with Corey on a bench outside the conference, and we were just wanting to know if we can chat with you for a little bit. Absolutely. Thank you. I've since learned that she works in healthcare and had traveled here from Ohio for the conference. And I wanted to get a clearer picture on what brought her to that moment on Thursday night.

I see you have on the blue badge. Are you someone who you consider yourself a Democrat? The more I'm here, the more I'm starting to consider myself more of a purple. There's some things I tend to lean conservative on. Other things I would say probably for this purpose, I do tend to lean more Democrat, but I wouldn't say I'm a full fledged Democrat by any means.

And is that a direct result of your time in the organization? I'm saying, have you typically voted for Democrats? Typically? Yes, I do. I do tend to vote Democrat because that just what aligns more with me.

Yeah, you mentioned some of the issues that have come up here that's caused you kind of to question some of that. Can you tell me what that is? One of it was the debate watch party, to be completely honest, that was a big one this Thursday. Yeah. Watching the debate and seeing who is representing the Democratic Party or who they've chosen, assuming that they've chosen.

As a blue myself, I'm like, we've got to pick someone better. So that is starting to make me question, okay, reevaluate some things about where my values are, where I align with a lot of the issues and things like that, and kind of re evaluating myself, if that makes sense. You know, we watched the debate, too. Can you tell me what specifically made you think about reevaluating your party alliance from that?

As big of a farce as it was? I think listening to Donald Trump, one of the biggest things that struck me and what stuck I with me is listening to him say that he believes in the exceptions to abortion. That is not something I have ever heard before because I really didn't follow Donald Trump prior to listening to the debate and hearing that really kind of devilified him for me because I thought, you know, I was under the impression as a blue, I believe the lie that people will tell about Trump and that he just wanted to abolish abortion altogether, which I am not for. So that really struck me and really brought me to maybe I really kind of need to listen to more of what he's saying and reevaluate, you know, where my feelings actually lie. So when he mentioned his position on abortion because it was different than the kind of most extreme positions that other Republicans have had and what you have kind of assumed he would have, it made you think, maybe I could be more open to voting for him?

Absolutely. Absolutely. So is it Trump winning you over in that debate or did Biden lose you in that debate? I think Biden lost me in that because, I mean, I know he, I don't really know how to phrase it because I just feel like part of the point of this organization is to look at the other side and evaluate and be able to be open to listening. And, you know, I'm not fully committed to switching my vote yet, but I am considering it.

I'm doing, you know, I still have to do more research, and I want to listen to the next debate that happens. And after that, I'm pretty sure I'll be able to make my final decision on whether or not I'm going to switch. Right now, you feel like you moved from saying I'm going to vote for Biden to being more undecided? Yes. You know, so much of the debate reaction has been about Biden's presentation.

Did that factor into it for you, or was it really a policy thing for you? I think it was a combination of both. It just made me feel sad for him because for me, watching the debate, it felt as if he was clearly forced to be there. I think he loves this country. I think he wants to do what's best, but I don't think he has the mental capacity.

I think the debate really showcased that. I think seeing Trump being a little bit younger and in much better health, much more able to articulate, even if it, you know, wasn't always the nicest, I think that does play a part in that, for sure. I imagine it's not just one issue for you when you think about the office. So I can see how Trump can kind of win you over on abortion, but he certainly has, you know, doubled down on some of the things that he's always been about and about kind of harsh immigration policy, you know, refusal to accept the results of the election. How do you square your kind of openness with him on abortion to imagine what are some of the things that still make you uncomfortable about him?

That's a good question and one that I really think needs more thought for me to answer in any kind of intelligent way. What I will say is that I voted for Trump in 2016 and then watched the four years. I didn't like what I saw character wise. And I think that's where I'm having to reevaluate of why I didn't like Trump came from his character flaws. He is not a nice person.

He is not someone that I would enjoy talking to if I saw him on the street. But if he's doing what is best for the american people, then that's something that I, I don't want to say I'm willing to overlook, but let slide for the purposes of bettering the country as a whole. Did you vote until the 2020 election? You vote for who? Biden.

You voted for Biden 2022. We went from Trump to 16. Biden 2020. Biden has made the argument that character matters. It seems for you, though, it's kind of sliding in the rank of priorities.

Is that fair to say? I think it is. I do believe character matters, but part of why people seem to like Trump so much is not necessarily because he's a nice person, but because he gets the job done. I mean, Biden has his own things that have come out about him and, you know, those have to be taken into account as well. I think character matters, but I think where they stand on the issues matters a little more at this point.

My sister is a very avid Trump supporter. She thinks that he did a lot of good for the country in 2016 when he was elected. I at the time, did not, and I still stand by that. I don't think he did as much as people think he did. I won't deny that he definitely did some good, but I don't think he is the president that everybody thinks he was during that time.

But we've had many conversations about, you know, his issue of abortion and where I stand or, you know, January 6 has been a big one that we've talked about. I definitely think Trump contributed to that in the way he was talking to people. But then I listened to the debate and he's like, well, I saw things were getting out of hand. I tried to get help, but the mayor of DC didn't want it. That was another thing that kind of skewed my, I won't say skewed but definitely made me think a little bit more.

But that's a really good example. January 6 has been a big one. A big yes. It's interesting, though, because when Trump says that on the stage, you could reject it and say that he's not telling the truth, but you seem to be pretty open to the idea that maybe things were a little different than I had originally thought. Yes.

Okay. I believed him. He seemed to come off to me as very sincere in what he was saying, and that really matters to me at this point in my life. I'm 38, so I've lived a bit of life. I have more life experience.

Even from 2016 to now, I've had a lot of life experience, and I think that plays a big part in deciding how to boat. And, I mean, people aren't talking about, you know, you know, RFK junior and how he should have been up there. And I do believe he should have been up there. And he held his own debate and I went and watched him, and he's also convincing me, you know, by listening to him. So it's still a really big.

It's really up in the air at this point. You're considering all three options. Absolutely. That would be accurate. Well, I mean, thank you for chatting with us.

An undecided voter in Ohio means a lot. So, you know, you got a big decision on your hands. Yeah, I've heard Ohio is a battleground state and that it can swing presidencies either way. So it's a big decision for you. Sure.

More from Braver angels after the break. My name is Audra Diaz Birch, and I am a national correspondent covering race and identity for the New York Times. Race coverage is complicated. It can be joyous and affirming. It can be uncomfortable.

But I feel like it's still absolutely necessary. Race and identity are not just understanding who you are, but who the person in front of you is and wanting to understand more about them. We're trying to wrestle down these really hard subjects and maybe not answering the question, but asking the right questions and listening, listening, listening a lot. The Times is dedicated to ambitious and deeply reported coverage of race and identity, and they're willing to back it up with resources. If you are curious about the world in which we live, if you're interested in who you are, where you come from, and how you relate to others, I would encourage you to subscribe to the New York Times.

Originally, we came here to watch the debate with the Braver Angels because this is a group with a theory that open conversation and respectful debate can bridge americas political divides and help bring the country together.

The Braver Angels movement began in 2016 after Trumps election, when the group started running workshops seeking common ground. And a bunch of people showed up. People who said they were having trouble talking about politics with their relatives, or people who found themselves having political disagreements with friends and community members. Nearly everyone that we spoke to at Braver Angels had a story about a personal experience that led them there. Well, when I was about 20 years old, I was in a relationship with a conservative and I'm very left leaning.

And he basically told me that he couldn't be with someone like me. I was just terrible. And he just how the vision showed up everywhere. As a blue teaching in a red community and being married into a mostly red family just brought up all types of questions. And I was very polarized, I guess, in the most intimate ways.

The way we got to Braver Angels is because he and his brother had a pretty upsetting conversation when we were dating. And it was around race. And I didn't know whether or not these two men were racist. I literally didn't know. And I was in the house with them.

And so I was tearfully crying, thinking I wasn't going to be able to be with the man I love because he and his family were racist. So I googled how to have a conversation with potentially racist people and braver angels. I mean, what else am I going to do? So I googled and braver angels came up. And so I brought him and my sons and we, as a result, we, all five of our kids now understand the braver angels concepts and model and practice it in their lives.

And many of them, most of them, date interracially as well. So these topics are really up in front. While I was interested in what people had to say about divisions in America, I also wanted to keep asking about Thursday night because it felt like a watershed moment.

So during lunchtime, we sought out a table of braver angels from different ideological backgrounds and decided to introduce ourselves. We met James and Caroline, a split red blue couple from Brooklyn. Caroline is a Democrat and James is a Republican. They were having lunch with another split family, Erica and William, who live in Texas, and their son Alex. I actually thought that Thursday night was one of the least polarizing things I've seen in some time.

Because almost everybody, not just here, where it's a little preaching to the choir, we all care enough about it that we showed up here. But people I've seen, they, almost everyone agreed on the topic that America has got to do something like if you talk about shared values, I think a shared value over many, many, many Americans, no matter where they are on individual issues, share the value that we need to have an election that better represents us than what we saw on Thursday night. I bet you there are MAGA people and progress and everybody, many, many people in the nation that would agree on that. One thing below that we start from the value of we care, right. All of us can agree.

We care how we care and what that looks like. Well, now that's the discussion, but we're starting the floor is we all care. As a Republican, did you think that Thursday night was something that, you know, did you agree with what she says that it was a kind of agreement about like that being something that Americans should not want to see representing, you know, them in the presidential election. I think that all Americans of goodwill would be saddened by Thursday night like, you know, to see our president sort of unable to answer simple questions and all that. I think all Americans would be concerned, would be concerned for him personally, would be concerned for the office of the presidency.

I think everyone would agree that it was pretty, pretty sad considering how y'all are talking about Thursday. I'm curious what you plan to do in November. Do you know you're voting for, do you have a plan? What do you think about the country in the next five months? I know I kind of get what you think about where we should go in a broader sense, but it seems like we got a little rocky road ahead of us.

We do. Yeah. For sure. For me, I am, although I don't think Biden has any idea where he is. Whoever's running the show over there, I'm a fan of the policy.

I think the investment in renewable technology that was made a couple years ago, there's a lot of. Yeah, there's a lot of things about what's going on, whether he has any idea what they are that I like. Right. And I'm probably, I'm definitely voting for an idea. And the idea that I think most supports where we'd like to go is amongst the blue side.

That doesn't mean there aren't many ideas on the red side that I think are part that should be unfolded in the future. So I do think that we need to prepare for it to be rough. It's going to be harder before it gets better. And if we prepare for that and understand that, then we won't buckle under the weight of what will unfold. Alex, the youngest at the table, was more focused on policy than age.

I think I'd fall in line with the, probably, if I was to vote, it would be for Biden, obviously, much prefer better candidate, select options. I don't really believe in voting third party, necessarily. It's not the most effective use of your vote. I live in Colorado, so it could potentially have an impact.

Are you sure? Yeah. It's hard to say. I do support the administration. I mean, I, I live in Colorado Springs specifically, the Chips act is enabling a semiconductor manufacturer to expand their output.

Like, it's a huge investment in the community. It's going to have huge downstream effects for tech in the midwest. Say what you want about Biden under a historically divided Congress, things have gotten done that I think are pretty important. And so I'd vote for continuation of that. The chances he makes it through the full term are looking pretty low, you know, and Kamala Harris is a pretty divisive person.

But again, I don't really know who's running the show or what's going on there. The administration seems solid. It's pretty stable. Curious for you, too, huh? Well, as a Republican, I would like to have a republican candidate to vote for, you know, strong defense, limited government, fiscal conservative.

But there isn't a candidate right now who represents that. So, you know, I'll wind up voting for the Democrat, too, because I just, I can't see Trump in the White House again. Interesting. So we got a universal agreement on the kind of Thursday as a bummer for the country, but it also seems like there might be universal agreement that y'all are all back in Biden. In spite of that.

Well, I will say I am voting for an idea when I vote in November, if these are to the two candidates. But I am, we're here to think about hope, and one hope that I have is that in a representative democracy that we are, that the Democrats will have a convention worthy of, you know, 1787 and, you know, think long and hard about who they run as a candidate. It's not too late to make a choice, and I'm hoping that everything is on the table in November. I will make a decision, but I get what you're saying, that, like, you're still holding out hope that that's not the choice you have to make. Yes, I am holding that hope out, but I will vote.

I mean, if I have to hold my nose and vote, I will vote. Thank you all so much. This is a little, as the conference continued with session topics like trust in elections, populism in the republican party, and whether cancel culture was corroding society. Fallout from the debate continued to be top of mind for people. My name's Justin Connor, including Justin.

And I really sort of came here, you know, actually in part of family reason. I've had a very hard time sort of talking with my brother, who has a very, very different political stance than I do. And I was looking for some sort of solution to better understand each other, to have better conversations, and to sort of explore common ground, finding ways to talk more civilly towards one another and find genuine policy solutions. He was attending the conference with his mother and her husband, Stephen. You know, one of the things I remember from the 2020 presidential election is that candidate Biden at the time was kind of making an argument about Donald Trump being a source of a lot of division and that in electing him that we could get the country kind of back to a place of more shared agreement.

I'm curious for you all, like, what do you think about the prospect of the next six months and what effects it could have on, you know, discourse or kind of the shared american story? I'll say, for me, to me, the silver lining is that it really shows me that it is truly up to us that we live in a democracy and we cannot be guided in any significant way by our political leadership, and that it is up to every single person to be a part of making the world that you want to live in that away from Thursday, can you make that connection for me? Because, you know, to me, I think we sort of saw this is an election that not very many Americans are excited about the choice that they have, and it's a really, really unpleasant choice. So to me, looking to political leadership to sort of say, oh, well, they will sort of solve the problems. They will sort of figure all of this stuff out.

It's up to our leaders to make all of these important decisions. To me, it sort of says, no, we live in a democracy, and it is up to each and every one of us to fully participate. And Stephen was less focused on silver linings. When we think about November, I mean, it seems that everyone's a Democrat here. Are you going to vote for President Biden?

I want to see who President Biden puts on as a vice presidential candidate. He's sticking with the one he has right now, not vote for either of them. He's just getting too old, and I'm almost the same age he is. Okay. And I don't think I'd have the stamina to be chief executive of this country for four years.

And I'm really concerned about his health and his ability to do that kind of job. Did you vote for him four years ago? No, I did not. Do you plan on voting for Donald Trump or another option? I'm looking for.

I was looking for the Robert Kennedy option. I don't know what's happening with that campaign. It's sort of, it's fizzling. So I would definitely be interested much more in a third party candidate. Your primary?

Objection. With Biden's age. Well, two parts to it. His age seems to me to be affecting his ability to react sharply, as was demonstrated in the debates. And I'm looking at the president of the United States in terms of the office as the representative of the greatest country in the world, perhaps.

And I just don't see that as representation being adequate. By its nature, braver angels attracts optimists, or at least people who are moved by the group's pitch that people can disagree better. But there didn't seem to be much disagreement about the debate or the shortcomings of Biden and Trump. Hi, how are you? My name is Esteb.

This is Anna. We met Zach, an independent, after a session on the ethics of voting for third parties. Yeah. So I grew up leaning red. I think I would still lean red in a lot of ways, but don't necessarily feel like the republican party fits some of my core values.

They fit other values I have. But the democratic party has some of my values, so I don't know where I fit. Now in the current state of politics. Do you know what you're gonna do in November? I mean, you mentioned you're kind of angst about it.

I'm wondering how that's actually translated. And what do you think about Thursday night's debate? I definitely don't know what I'm gonna do. Thursday night's debate did not help. I don't feel like I have a good choice.

If I am stuck with two choices, then I don't feel good about either choice right now. And so I don't know what I'm gonna do. Going to take a lot of study for me personally, prayer to figure that out. It's interesting because I can both totally understand that, because, you know, Thursday, I don't think, was serving that purpose, but they're also such familiar people that I'm saying, like, how? What do you mean by study, considering there's such known quantities?

In some sense, yes. So I've actually been stuck on this issue the whole time. I think the problem is I'm faced with reality, where this has been essentially my choice for the last two elections where I haven't felt comfortable with either candidate and haven't had a good alternative. And so I don't know what to do because for me, I don't feel like I'm throwing away my vote by not voting for one of the two parties. I feel like I have to vote for my conscience.

And if we just kept picking the lesser of two evils, eventually they're gonna get so evil or so unaccountable and so bad for our country that we're gonna ruin the country itself. And so I'd rather just not vote for either candidate in that situation. So is that also part of your equation? Not just those two candidates, but not voting at all? No.

No. I would still vote. I just wouldn't vote for one of the two candidates if I feel like neither of them are going to be ones that are actually going to help our country. Thank you so much. I really appreciate it.

How does this work? Oh, cool. So we work for the Times podcast.

Nearly everyone that we spoke to at Braver Angels had a story about how american politics had changed in recent years. There are days I think we're gonna be okay, and there's days I'm scared to death. What days? Today. What have the last few days been?

You wanna go jump in the lake with me? Become more divisive. Covid was just happening. And my husband, he's a conservative. I am a liberal.

And we were bickering a lot. I couldn't understand why we were so far apart. We've been married for 23 years at that point. And I thought, wow, this is interesting. But they were also confident that the divisions they experienced are a solvable problem.

I ran for office last year on this platform of being civil, my little village council. You know, people like to see. What was your opinion on septic tank issues? You know, they wanted. They wanted concrete things, which I think that's where it starts, because you can't argue with your neighbors all the time.

Through working through their own biases, debating, finding common ground, a lot of what happened this weekend, my policy positions haven't changed. I'm still on almost on most issues, pretty darn progressive. But I think what's changed is instead, you know how I view the folks on the other side of the political aisle. I used to wonder, to what extent are they evil? To what extent are they stupid?

And now that seems, like, ridiculous that I ever really thought that most of their solutions to the divisions that they see and experience, or on the individual level, changing hearts and minds rather than the political parties or the system itself. The Boy Scout in me wants to sort of like we left the campsite better than we found it. At least try to leave this, well better than it is now, which, you know, is, in my opinion, not good. But I'm not so sure. The lesson of this week is that Americans are uniquely divided.

According to the data and our own reporting, most Americans are pretty united on some big things about this election they dislike both candidates, wish they had other options, and think President Biden is too old for a second term. And in fact, the debate only seemed to drive home that consensus. So is the problem with our politics really a divided electorate, or is it that the electorate haven't been listened to?

At the end of the convention, the braver angels gathered in the same chapel where they had watched the debate. With no Biden or Trump in the room to weigh them down, the mood was much more hopeful. Everyone has voted. I believe we have a winner, madam chairman. They decided to prioritize immigration in their workshops.

What happens in Kenosha does not stay in Kenosha.

Braver angels leaders called for membership to double in the next year. O say can you say? And to send them off, a quartet got on stage and performed a stirring rendition of the Star Spangled banner. Once so proudly we have at the twilight happy fourth, y'all.

Who's brought stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight? O the ramparts we watch were so gay and tilde.

That's the run up for Thursday, July 4, 2024. And now the rundown this week in the aftermath of the first debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The New York Times and Sienna College. Conduct to the poll I'm Ruth Gelnick. I'm the polling editor for the New York Times, and I help conduct our time Sean polls.

To help walk through the results, I called my colleague on the polling team. So as we get closer to the election, we are interested in looking not just at registered voters, but also at likely voters, because we're really interested in people who are actually likely to vote in the election. Right now, President Trump is winning by six percentage points among likely voters, which is an increase from where he was before the debate. He was up three percentage points among likely voters. So depending on how you look at it, that's about a two to three percentage point gain among registered voters.

President Trump is up by an even wider margin. He's up by nine percentage points. That's an increase of where we had him before. He was up six percentage points among registered voters before the debate. So it's certainly a wide gap.

And, you know, we often talk about margins of error with these things when these races are so close and the candidates are so close together. But when you look at a gap of nine percentage points among registered voters, that really starts to get outside of the margin of error. And you do actually see that as a lead for Trump and not just a race that's neck and neck. What these results mean for Biden is the million dollar question. You know, nationally, it's not great news for Biden, but we are also a country that doesn't vote nationally.

We vote in the electoral college. So I think paying attention to what changes we're seeing in swing states will matter. But I think, you know, this isn't great news for Biden. He lost ground. We have five percentage points more voters saying that he is too old.

And that was already something that was a majority held opinion. It's been a majority held opinion all year. So I think if Biden is trying to change the conversation about his age, about his debate performance, this tells me that that's not happening. And if anything, those ideas are sort of solidifying in the electorate. One big thing we're seeing is more voters are now paying attention.

From pre to post debate, we had, like, a ten percentage point bump in the share of voters who are saying that they're paying a lot of attention. So not only is this a sea change in the debate, but everybody's tuning in and they're tuning in at this moment. That's not so great for Biden, which I think is probably meaningful for the rest of the race.

Meanwhile, the president's team has been working to contain the fallout from the debate, reaching out to donors and lawmakers, even suggesting that any dip in Biden's numbers will be the result of, quote, overblown media narratives. They also released an ad, I know I'm not a young man, but I know how to do this, that directly referenced Biden's age. I know right from wrong. I know how to tell the truth. And I know, like millions of Americans know, when you get knocked down, you get back up.

I'm Joe Biden, and I approve this message. And on Friday, the president will sit for an interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos and make a campaign stop in Wisconsin. There are eleven days to the Republican National Convention, 46 days until the Democratic National Convention, and 124 days until the general election. We'll see you next week.

The run up is reported by me, asted Herndon, and produced by Elisa Gutierrez. Caitlin Okeefe and Anna Foley. It's edited by Rachel Dry and Lisa Tobin, with original music by Dan Powell, Marion Lozano, Pat McCusker, Diane Wong, Sophia Landman, and Alicia Ba Etu. It was mixed by Sophia Landman and fact checked by Caitlin Love. Special thanks to Paula Schuman, Sam Dolnicke, Larissa Anderson, David Haufinger, Maddie Maciello, Mihima Ciablani, Jeffrey Miranda, and Elizabeth Bristowe.

Do you have questions about the 2024 election? Email us at the runupytimes.com. or better yet, record your question using the voice memo app in your phone. That email, again is therunupytimes.com. thanks for listening, y'all.

You.