The 2024 presidential election campaign is in its final stretch. The candidates are mobilizing as they prepare for next week's big test.

In a race this tight, will a debate make a difference?

I'm Leila Fadel. That's Michelle Martin, and this is Up First from NPR News. Venezuela's opposition candidate is on the run after claiming victory in July's presidential election. Much of the world agrees he won, but Nicolas Maduro is holding on to power and accusing the candidate of conspiring against the government. Will Venezuela's political and diplomatic crisis raise tension with the US even further?

And millions of direct TV customers will love scrambling for ways to watch their favorite shows and sports when Disney pulled It's programming from the distributor over a contract dispute. Can they resolve this before the US Open ends and Monday night football starts? Stay with us. We'll give you the news you need to start your day. This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University performs breakthrough research every year, making discoveries that improve human health, combat climate change, and move society forward. More at iu. Edu/forward.

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Labor Labor Day marks the beginning of the final push in the presidential campaign. Some people will start voting in just a few weeks. Campaigns will be trying to mobilize their voters, and there are the debates.

Now, many people have already made up their minds about who they're going to vote for, but with a race as close, it can be a nerve-wracking time. How should voters be thinking about these next couple of months, and what should voters be watching out for?

Let's ask NPR senior political editor and correspondent, Domenico Montanaro. Domenico, good morning. Hey, good morning, Michelle. Okay, so with Labor Day behind us. That's the traditional start of the presidential campaign, although, of course, we know it's been going on actually for two years now. The election looks close. If somebody were to say to you, Hey, I'm looking at these polls every day. Is that going to tell me what's going to happen? What would you I'd say.

I'd say, Stop it. Polls exist. They're largely pretty good. We even conduct our own to get a better sense of how people are feeling about the candidates in society. But all you really need to know about the horse race right now are two things. First, Harris is performing better than Biden was in the seven key swing states everyone's watching. Second, the race is very close within the margin of error, and that's not likely going to change very soon. That's it. Now this campaign is really about mobilization and a couple of big tests coming up for the candidates.

Okay, about those big tests coming up. One of those is the debate one week from today. How important is that and what are you watching for?

I think the debate is going to be really very important, especially for Kamala Harris. She's had a great first month. Now she's starting to face ramped up attacks from Trump because she's narrowly ahead in some key places. It's likely to get pretty ugly because Trump has to try and pull her down. Pay attention to some of the attacks Trump is trying right now because we're likely going to hear a lot about them at the debate next week. Things like Harris's shifts on some positions and trying to tie her to the chaotic Afghanistan withdrawal. So this debate will be a test for Harris for sure. But it also, I have to say, carries some risk for Trump, too. I mean, think about the last debate against President Biden. Trump's flaws were really overshadowed because of Biden's struggles But Trump repeatedly lied, spread baseless conspiracy theories, and made a number of unserious or incoherent policy proposals. So if Harris has a solid debate, the focus really should then be on Trump in a way that he doesn't want.

We're going to likely hear about a number of the issues voters care about in that debate. Which ones do you think are motivating voters and could possibly make the biggest difference this fall?

Yeah, I mean, it's the issues that we've been hearing about, that the candidates have been focused on the economy and inflation, immigration, abortion rights. In many respects, Republicans have advantages on the fundamentals in this election. Unemployment's low, growth has been strong, inflation has come down. But people continue to view the economy negatively, even if not as much as a year ago. And that's because prices are still higher than they were pre-pandemic. But negative feelings about Trump are arguably as strong or stronger than those feelings about the economy. And it's why Harris has been able to make a strong case that she's the one who represents change in this election.

Before we let you go in an analysis published this morning on npr. Org, you write that another advantage that Democrats feel they have is related to turnout. Say more.

Well, Democrats have a lot more offices, paid staff, and volunteers on the ground in swing states than the Trump campaign. Abortion rights ballot measures will be voted on in 10 states, including Arizona and Nevada, both swing states. And the Harris campaign believes those will boost turnout with key voter groups. Republicans, on the other hand, Trump has a deep well as support, and tens of millions will certainly go to the polls to vote for him. But his turnout operation is a question mark because the The Oregon National Committee has turned over a lot of it to a group with very little track record of success. And Trump keeps talking down things like mail-in voting, which limits his campaign.

That is NPRs Domenico, Montanaro. Domenico, thank you.

You're welcome.

The US seised the government plane of Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro, saying the purchase of it violated US sanctions. It is just the latest sign of the tensions between the US and Venezuela.

Yeah, Maduro insists he won the election in Venezuela in July, but international observers and much of the world, including the US, reject his claim. They back the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, who says he actually got the most votes. Maduro is cracking down on dissent, and a Venezuelan judge issued an arrest warrant for González, accusing him of sabotaging the election and conspiring against the government.

Freelance report at Manuel Rueda has been following this story. He was in Venezuela for the recent presidential election. And he is with us now from Bogotá, Colombia. Manuel, good morning. Hi, good morning. So it's not every day that a country basically repossesses another country's presidential jet. What did the Venezuelan government say about this?

So basically, the Venezuelan government is calling this an act of piracy. They issued a statement yesterday where they said they're going to take legal measures and try to get compensation for the plane, although it's not clear where they could head for this compensation, where they could seek resource.

Well, especially since, as we said, the US says that this is a violation of sanctions, the purchase of it was undercover. So to begin with, well, I'm just trying to... Could you just bring us up to date here? How did we get to this point?

Yeah, absolutely. So after the election took place on July 28th, the Venezuelan Electoral Council, which runs the elections and is controlled by the ruling Socialist Party, declared Maduro the winner. But opposition activists in Venezuela collected thousands of tally sheets printed out by voting machines. They scanned them, they posted them online, and those records show pretty convincingly that González won the election by a large margin. Possibly two-thirds of the vote went to González. So that's basically what's bothering the Venezuelan government and making it last shout against González and other opposition leaders. And I think with this plane being confiscated, the Biden administration is trying to show its teeth and signal to the Maduro government that they're about enforcing sanctions against the Venezuelan government, which could be sanctions over more serious issues eventually, such as oil projects in Venezuelan oil exports.

I see. Okay, so now I understand that there's a warrant for Edmundo González's arrest. Do we have any sense of, the opposition candidate, as we said, do we know where he is or what his next plan is?

González has been seen in public for more than a month, and that's probably because he was protecting himself from this type of situation from getting arrested. He might escape Venezuela as it's been the case with some other opposition leaders in the past and try to continue to make his claims from abroad. However, the most popular opposition leader in Venezuela is Maria Corina Machado, the politician who basically ran González's campaign after she was banned herself from participating in the election. And she's still in Venezuela and is promising to stage more protests and keep up the pressure against Maduro.

As we've been talking about all this, do we have any sense of how the general public is reacting to all this?

Well, more than 1,600 people have been arrested in Venezuela in protests following the election. So people are very worried about what's happening. Media outlets have been censored. Even the social media platform X has been banned. So it's a difficult moment in Venezuela, and many people are also thinking about leaving the country because of this.

All right. That is freelance reporter Manuel Rueda. Manuel, thank you so much.

Absolutely.

Millions of sports fans watching ESPN over the weekend suddenly saw their screens black out.

Yeah, direct TV subscribers saw cable channels owned by Disney go off the air in the middle of the fourth round matches of the US Open. It's all because of a contract dispute between direct TV and Disney, which owns ESPN, ABC, and Disney+.

Here to tell us more about all this is Alex Weprin. He writes about media and sports for the Hollywood reporter. Good morning, Alex. Good morning. Okay, your screen going black in the middle of the match. Okay. Not a way to win friends. But what is the snag here? What have Disney and Direct TV been negotiating about?

Every few years, media companies like Disney and TV providers like Direct TV, they'll renegotiate their contracts just to keep their channels on the air. This time, however, thanks to cord cutting, it's a little more significant for both parties. Disney wants to try and get as much cash as possible, keep their channels as widely available as possible. Direct TV is trying to change how they sell TV. They want to start selling TV in genres like sports and news and kids. And so that's caused this dust up between the companies and Disney channels are now dark.

Who is most affected by this outage? I can imagine where some people who are saying, Well, okay, just switch to another streaming service. Is Is that possible?

Well, I mean, some direct TV subscribers will be able to. They have about 11 million between their streaming service and their satellite TV service. However, there are many direct TV subscribers. In fact, the direct TV over indexes in this area, that live in rural America, that don't have access to high-speed internet because the cable company has never built out infrastructure there. So while some subscribers would be able to switch, although as anyone who's tried to do so can tell you, it's not exactly easy or simple, there are actually millions of TV subscribers for whom it's really difficult and they may not have any other good options.

Do we have any sense of how these negotiations are going? I mean, it does seem like a power move to pull the programming off the air in the middle of programming. But do we have any sense? And I know that's a difficult question because obviously, by definition, negotiations take place behind closed doors and so forth. But do we have any sense of it? How soon these channels could be restored, anything like that?

Typically, if the companies are close at all, they will try to avoid a The fact there is a blackout suggests that they are pretty far apart on key issues. I will say that the start of football season is in one week, and I think that will be the impetus to get these two sides in a room to start negotiating and cut a deal because the NFL is the king of TV, and I think they both want ESPN back in direct TV homes before the NFL season.

It was just last year that Disney's channels went dark during a dispute with the cable carrier, Charter Spectrum. What does this tell us about the the power of a company like Disney?

I think it wasn't that long ago that I think Disney would say they were operating from a position of strength, and direct TV would have said the same thing. I actually think they're both operating from a place of weakness right now. They're both really impacted by cord cutting. The dynamics of TV are changing dramatically. I think the fact that we're seeing more of these blackouts, like Charter last year and Direct TV this year, suggests that these companies are really finding the current moment existential. They're trying to figure out how to survive in this new TV environment.

That's Alex Weparin. I'm a Hollywood reporter. Alex, thanks so much for sharing this reporting and these insights with us.

Thank you.

That's up first for Tuesday, September third. I'm Michelle Martin.

And I'm Leila Fauden. Your next listen is Consider This from NPR. Children are being vaccinated at lower and lower rates. What does that mean for deadly infectious diseases like measles? Listen to Consider This from NPR.

Today's episode of Up First was edited by Dana Farrington, Louise Clemens, Jan Johnson, and Mohamed El Bardisi. It was produced by Ziac Butt, Nia Dumas, and Lindsay Tadi. We get engineering support from Arthur Lorraine, and our technical director is Carly Strange. Join us again tomorrow. Want to hear this podcast without sponsor breaks? Amazon Prime members can listen to Up First sponsor-free through Amazon Music. Or you can also support NPR's vital journalism and get Up First Plus at plus. Npr. Org. That's plus. Npr. Org. This message comes from Indiana University. Indiana University is committed to moving the world forward, working to tackle some of society's biggest challenges, nine campuses, one purpose, Creating Tomorrow Today. More at iu. Edu. Okay, so tell me if this sounds like you. You love NPR's podcast. You wish they weren't interrupted by sponsor breaks like this one, and you want to support NPR's mission of creating a more informed public. If this does sound like you, then it's time to sign up for perks across more than 20 podcasts with the NPR Plus bundle. Learn more at plus. Npr. Org.